I don’t think he’s currently in danger of losing his house seat.
I hope he runs, he is pessimistic and blunt about what he thinks the rats chances for holding the seat in 2010 without him are. “It’s a gone district, if I’m not in there,”
Rats rule the UP on a local level but the district as a whole voted for Bush twice and only narrowly for Obama (McLame didn’t contest Michigan) I think if open this year it’s the GOP’s to lose. Before 1992 and Stupak’s election the North Michigan and UP seat was the 11th district and it was Republican for but all 1 term (65-66) since the 1938 election.
Pro-life, pro-gun rats are a notable demographic in Michigan but are outvoted in a huge way in statewide primaries. With the current weak rat gubernatorial field he thinks he might have a chance at the nod.
I’d like to send a shout out to Politico.com. In their article about this they call Stupak “a conservative Democrat”. Dear Politico, lol you suck.
We should be favored in an open MI-01, but it won’t be a slam dunk. We need to find a Yooper to run, particularly if we want to hold the district in 2012 and beyond (since not every election year will be as good for us as 2010).
One thing that could help the Democrats hold the district is if Stupak wins the gubernatorial nomination and boosts Democrat turnout in the district. However, while you are correct that the RAT primary field is weak, there already is a pro-life Catholic running (I believe he’s the House majority leader, from the Detroit suburbs), and if the lunchpail Democrat vote is split the nomination could go to one of the ultraliberals running (I thinj the other two candidates are the ultraliberal mayor of Lansing and a black liberal).