I think you’re right that there is a point at which the glut of housing makes house prices go so low that more low-earners *can* buy houses.
However, in the meantime, the death of the baby boomers means a huge increase in vacant, unsellable properties over time.
For one thing, many of these homes will not be in locations or modern enough for people who have money to buy one of the millions of other, probably newer homes on the market.
Secondly, many young people starting out will make so little, if they even get jobs, they won’t be able to save up downpayments which (hopefully) will be required as credit standards return to more sensible parameters -— regardless of the home’s price.
At the same time, as we are starting to see now, the glut in homes for sale will lead to cheaper and cheaper rents. Renting, rather than buying, possibly will become more the norm.
Home ownership won’t be a simple question of affordability (as realtors like to say). I think the whole idea of having a bunch of money sunk into a house, and being tied there if it can’t be easily sold, yet one loses one’s job or whatever, will not be as blithely accepted in the future.
Also, I don’t think we can assume that house prices can fall and fall indefinitely, while everyone’s financial status stays relatively the same. IOW, the worse the housing market is, the worse the economy will be -— therefore, the worse wages will be and so on.
But, yes, if affordability is the only factor, more houses = more affordability.
In my opinion, you seem to be forgetting that most boomers have children, often larger than the current 2 kid families, and that many of these adult children could never afford a home and are anxious to inherit their parent’s home. If mom’s home is local, they can move into it. If not, they can rent it out or sell it for the downpayment to buy a home locally.
It seems to me you think that a deceased boomer = vacant home. With all of their children waiting to inherit, I don’t think the glut from the demographic shift will be as dramatic as you seem to think
Look around at your own family, friends and neighbors. Dig a little and I think you will begin to realize how many of the boomers children don’t have homes and will inherit one. That is how I see it.