I respectfully disagree. I think McCain would win enough conservative votes, coupled with moderate Repubs and Independents (and some dems who don’t trust Obama or Hillary) to put him well over the top.
Conservatives don’t trust him at all and they make up a significant portion of the Republican voting base.
McCainiac seems to delight in poking conservatives in the eye. He supports amnesty, more gun laws, and removing your First Amendment right of free speech. He would rather work with Kennedy than a conservative. He LIKES the attention that he gets by giving the conservative base the finger more than he likes doing what is right.