Posted on 12/17/2006 4:03:30 PM PST by DAVEY CROCKETT
VEVAK learned its methodology from the Soviet KGB and many of the Islamist revolutionaries who supported Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini actually studied at Moscow's Patrice Lumumba Friendship University, the Oxford of terrorism. Documented Iranian alumni include the current Supreme Leader (the faqih) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, under whose Velayat-e Faqih (Rule of the Islamic Jurisprudent) apparatus it has traditionally operated. Its current head is Cabinet Minister Hojatoleslam Gholam-Hussein Mohseni-Ezhei, a graduate of Qom's Haqqani School, noted for its extremist position advocating violence against enemies and strict clerical control of society and government. The Ministry is very well funded and its charge, like that of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (the Pasdaran) is to guard the revolutionary Islamic Iranian regime at all costs and under all contingencies.
From the KGB playbook, VEVAK learned the art of disinformation. It's not so difficult to learn: tell the truth 80% of the time and lie 20%. Depending on how well a VEVAK agent wants to cover his/her tracks, the ratio may go up to 90/10, but it never drops below the 80/20 mark as such would risk suspicion and possible detection. The regime in Teheran has gone to great lengths to place its agents in locations around the world. Many of these operatives have been educated in the West, including the U.K. and the United States. Iranian government agencies such as embassies, consulates, Islamic cultural centers, and airline offices regularly provide cover for the work of VEVAK agents who dress well and are clean shaven, and move comfortably within our society. In this country, because of the severance of diplomatic relations, the principal site of VEVAK activities begins at the offices of Iran's Permanent Mission to the UN in New York.
Teheran has worked diligently to place its operatives in important think tanks and government agencies in the West. Some of its personnel have been recruited while in prison through torture or more often through bribery, or a combination of both. Others are Islamist revolutionaries that have been set up to look like dissidents - often having been arrested and imprisoned, but released for “medical reasons”. The clue to detecting the fake “dissident” is to read carefully what he/she writes, and to ask why this vocal “dissident” was released from prison when other real dissidents have not been released, indeed have been grievously tortured and executed. Other agents have been placed in this country for over twenty-five years to slowly go through the system and rise to positions of academic prominence due to their knowledge of Farsi and Shia Islam or Islamist fundamentalism.
One of the usual tactics of VEVAK is to co-opt academia to its purposes. Using various forms of bribery, academics are bought to defend the Islamic Republic or slander its enemies. Another method is to assign bright students to train for academic posts as specialists in Iranian or Middle East affairs. Once established, such individuals are often consulted by our government as it tries to get a better idea of how it should deal with Iran. These academics then are in a position to skew the information, suggesting the utility of extended dialogue and negotiation, or the danger and futility of confronting a strong Iran or its proxies such as Hizballah (Hezbollah). These academics serve to shield the regime from an aggressive American or Western policy, and thereby buy more time for the regime to attain its goals, especially in regards to its nuclear weaponry and missile programs.
MOIS likes to use the media, especially electronic media, to its advantage. One of VEVAK's favorite tricks is setting up web sites that look like they are opposition sites but which are actually controlled by the regime. These sites often will be multilingual, including Farsi, German, Arabic French, and English. Some are crafted carefully and are very subtle in how they skew their information (e.g., Iran-Interlink, set up and run by Massoud Khodabandeh and his wife Ann Singleton from Leeds, England); others are less subtle, simply providing the regime's point of view on facts and events in the news (e.g., www.mujahedeen.com or www.mojahedin.ws). This latter group is aimed at the more gullible in our open society and unfortunately such a market exists. However, if one begins to do one's homework, asking careful questions, the material on these fake sites generally does not add up.
Let's examine a few examples of VEVAK's work in the United States. In late October, 2005, VEVAK sent three of its agents to Washington to stage a press event in which the principal Iranian resistance movement, the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MeK), was to be slandered. Veteran VEVAK agent Karim Haqi flew from Amsterdam to Canada where he was joined by VEVAK's Ottawa agents Amir-Hossein Kord Rostami and Mahin (Parvin-Mahrokh) Haji, and the three flew from Toronto to Washington. Fortunately the resistance had been tracking these three, informed the FBI of their presence in Washington, and when the three tried to hold a press conference, the resistance had people assigned to ask pointed questions of them so that they ended the interview prematurely and fled back to Canada.
Abolghasem Bayyenet is a member of the Iranian government. He serves as a trade expert for the Ministry of Commerce. But his background of study and service in the Foreign Ministry indicates that Bayyenet is more than just an economist or a suave and savvy businessman. In an article published in Global Politician on April 23, 2006, entitled “Is Regime Change Possible in Iran?”, Bayyenet leads his audience to think that he is a neutral observer, concerned lest the United States make an error in its assessment of Iran similar to the errors of intelligence and judgment that led to our 2003 invasion of Iraq, with its less than successful outcome. However, his carefully crafted bottom line is that the people of Iran are not going to support regime change and that hardliner President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad actually has achieved greater popularity than his predecessors because of his concern for the problems of the poor and his fight for economic and social justice. To the naive, Bayyenet makes Ahmadinejad sound positively saintly. Conveniently overlooked is the occurrence of over four thousand acts of protest, strikes, anti-regime rallies, riots, and even political assassinations by the people of Iran against the government in the year since Ahmadinejad assumed office. So too, the following facts are ignored: the sizeable flight of capital, the increase in unemployment, and the rising two-figure rate of inflation, all within this last year. Bayyenet is a regime apologist, and when one is familiar with the facts, his arguments ring very hollow. However, his English skills are excellent, and so the naОve might be beguiled by his commentary.
Mohsen Sazegara is VEVAK's “reformed revolutionary”. A student supporter of Khomeini before the 1979 revolution, Sazegara joined the “imam” on his return from exile and served in the government for a decade before supposedly growing disillusioned.
He formed several reformist newspapers but ran afoul of the hardliners in 2003 and was arrested and imprisoned by VEVAK. Following “hunger strikes”, Sazegara was released for health reasons and permitted to seek treatment abroad. Although critical of the government and particularly of Ahmadinejad and KhameneМ, Sazegara is yet more critical of opposition groups, leaving the impression that he favors internal regime change but sees no one to lead such a movement for the foreseeable future. His bottom line: no one is capable of doing what needs to be done, so we must bide our time. Very slick, but his shadow shows his likely remaining ties to the MOIS.
http://www.ocnus.net/artman/publish/article_27144.shtml
Here is where everyone is...
Saddam Hussein Hanging LIVE Thread
Posted on 12/29/2006 12:11:00 PM EST by AVNevis
Since it now seems very imminent, I decided that it was an appropriate time to start this up. Links to information and pictures (if we get them) can be posted here.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1759930/posts
Yes almost 3 times the post it is being read.<<<
Only you know what that means?
You have mail.
I hope he gets better, maybe a new puppy will help.
Take a look in your local paper, there will be lots of free dogs after Christmas, as many give them as gifts and they are not welcomed.
Would you believe that even I have relatives, who do not allow pets in the house.
plane crashes
Three Plane Crashes in Six Days
WTVC - Chattanooga,TN,USA
Seven people have now lost their lives in three separate plane crashes in our area in less than a week. Friday morning, the National ...
See all stories on this topic
Plane crashes link Matthew Fox's latest roles
Reading Eagle - Reading,PA,USA
... after I committed to ‘We Are Marshall,' Jorge Garcia, who plays Hurley on ‘Lost,' sent me an e-mail saying, ‘You can't seem to escape plane crashes.'. ...
Would you believe that even I have relatives, who do not allow pets in the house.
Pets, are what comes after the kids leave home.
Without them it is a cold existence.
The links to the first 5 threads of the World of Terrorism are in post #17 of this thread.
You are right about the pets, good thing I had the kids first. LOL
I keep getting 'Temporarily Unavailable' on post and some email are you having trouble?
You have e mail
4 injured in Philippine shopping mall by bomb blast
Four people were injured when an improvised bomb exploded at a shopping mall in the Philippine city of Tacurong on Thursday, three months after terrorist groups reportedly detonated a bomb at the city's public market.
Sketchy military reports said that the improvised bomb was detonated by unidentified suspects at around 3 p.m. (0700 GMT) at the baggage counter area on the ground floor of Kimsan Plaza, a local shopping mall in Tacurong, Sultan Kudarat Province in Mindanao, some 860 kilometers south of Manila.
Reports said the victims suffered minor injuries and were promptly brought to the nearby hospital for treatment.
Before the explosion, the military said that the management of the shopping mall reportedly got a blackmail letter demanding money.
Military public information officer Bartolome Bacarro said they are investigating on the suspects and the motive of the blast.
http://english.people.com.cn:80/200612/28/eng20061228_336604.html
Saudi market crash hits millions
The Peninsula - 29 December, 2006
http://www.gulfinthemedia.com/index.php?id=273353&news_type=Economy&lang=en
The Saudi stock market closed one of the most turbulent years in its
history, ending 2006 down 52.53 per cent under strong correction
pressure
following seven years of continuous rise. The market, the largest in
the
Arab world, has seen its capitalisation cut by half since the end of
last
year and as much as $ 500bn wiped off the market's peak value of more
than $
800bn.
The Tadawul All-Shares Index (Tasi) closed on Wednesday, the last
trading
day of the year, below the 8,000-point psychological barrier on
7,933.29
points, sharply down from its 2005 closing of 16,712.64 points and
below the
2004-close of 8,206.23 points. But it remains slightly above this
year's
worst level of 7,665.73 points reached on December 3.
The Tasi has shed 61.5 per cent since it set its historical high of
20,634.86 points on February 25 when it began its nosedive. "The slide
had
been widely anticipated after the sharp increases in the index that
made the
prices of most stocks highly overvalued. Speculators have greatly
contributed to the collapse," Ali Al Dakkak, head of Dakkak Economic
Consultants, said. Dakkak said that lack of regulations and
transparency
made the slide more painful.
Correction forces defied government attempts to induce confidence in
the
sagging market, including decisions to split shares and allow foreign
residents to trade directly on the bourse. The rise in the Saudi bourse
was
spurred by abundant liquidity due to the sharp increase in oil prices.
The
Tasi has been rising since 1999, but its pace accelerated in 2003 when
oil
prices began to climb.
Between the end of 2003 and February 25 this year, the Tasi increased
almost
five-fold. Last year, the index rose 103.66 per cent. The crash in the
Saudi
market has affected millions of citizens, mostly small investors who
rushed
to invest in the market in the hope of making quick gains. Dakkak
estimates
that as many as two million Saudi investors and their eight million
family
members have been hit hard by the bourse slide.
The market capitalisation dropped to around $ 320bn from end-2005 value
of $
660bn, despite the listing of nine new companies. On February 25, the
value
topped $ 800bn. The only factor that rose this year was the turnover
which
shot from $ 1.1 trillion in 2005 to $ 1.4 trillion at the end of 2006.
Belarusians gird for cold winter as Russia threatens gas shut-off
The Associated PressPublished: December 26, 2006
E-Mail Article
Listen to Article
Printer-Friendly
3-Column Format
Translate
Share Article
Add to Clippings
Text Size
MINSK, Belarus: Residents of Belarus' capital stocked up on warm clothes and electric heaters as fears rose Tuesday that Russia is about to cut off the natural gas on which the country depends.
Russia says Belarus must pay more than twice as much for gas next year — and even more later — and turn over a half-share in its pipeline system, a major transit route to Europe, if it wants to avoid a New Year's gas shut-off.
The dispute bears strong echoes of last year's crisis between Russia and Ukraine, which caused ripples of concern in Western Europe, whose supplies of Russian gas were briefly disrupted.
But in that case, Russia's price demand was seen as political pressure against a Western-leaning government; this time it is against a country whose longtime leader has close ties with Moscow.
Belarusian opposition leader Alexander Milinkevich suggested Gazprom's demands are aimed at forcing President Alexander Lukashenko to cede control over the pipeline network and other attributes of sovereignty in exchange for continued Russian support for his authoritarian regime.
Today in Business
Mitsubishi saves itself from the scrap heap Pinault considers a takeover of Suez Spotlight: Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey
"Through energy pressure, the Kremlin is trying to force Lukashenko to integrate according to the Russian scenario, which is extremely dangerous for Belarus," Milinkevich told The Associated Press.
Anna Kuprilko, a 48-year-old tractor factory worker whose sister lives in Ukraine, was among those shopping for a heater Tuesday.
"My sister told me about Ukraine's experience, and I want to keep myself secure," she said. "My family is prepared for the worst."
The worst appeared to come a step closer Tuesday, when talks between Belarus and Russia failed to resolve the issue and a senior official of Russia's natural gas monopoly Gazprom said a cutoff was certain without an agreement.
"In the absence of a contract, there is not and cannot be a basis for the delivery of gas to any country or any consumer in the world," Gazprom's export division chief Alexander Medvedev said.
Lukashenko said the talks on Russian supplies were "very difficult" and urged energy saving. "In the conditions of pressure on Belarus one must know how to live within one's means and economize, especially on energy," he said.
Medvedev said a shut-off would not affect the 30 percent of Russian gas deliveries to Europe that transit Belarus. Much of the Russian gas destined for Poland and Germany, among other countries, goes through a pipeline that is already owned by Gazprom but is under the day-to-day control of the Belarusian pipeline network, Beltransgaz.
"The issues of transit and supplies are not linked and will not be linked," Medvedev said. But he also raised the possibility that Belarus would seek to siphon gas meant for European customers, saying that gas "will be delivered to the Russia-Belarus border. How the Belarusians will conduct themselves I don't want to guess, but I hope it won't come to that."
The price dispute with Ukraine in early 2006 resulted in temporary supply reductions to European customers, raising concerns about Russia's reliability.
Medvedev said Gazprom had scrapped its initial demand that Belarus begin paying US$200 (€150) per 1,000 cubic meters of gas in 2007. Under what he called a final offer, Belarus would pay US$105 (€80) next year — well below world market prices, but more than twice the US$47 (€36) it now pays.
The price would consist of US$75 (€57) in cash and US$30 (€22) in shares of Beltransgaz, he said. It would increase annually at the same rate as prices for Russian industrial consumers, reaching a market-style European price — minus the transit cost and export duties, which will be exempted — in 2010.
Gazprom would pay for a half-share in Beltransgaz by allowing Belarus to pay US$30 per 1,000 cubic meters in shares over the next four years.
The increasing price would be a severe blow to Belarus' Soviet-style state-run industries, whose financial health — and, in turn, a portion of Lukashenko's popularity — depends on cheap gas.
Russia had supplied gas to ex-Soviet states at below-market prices for years after the 1991 Soviet collapse, but now wants to sell all its gas at world prices.
Westward-leaning Georgia agreed Friday to pay US$235 (€178) per 1,000 cubic meters for its Russian gas imports under threat of a gas freeze on New Year.
Azerbaijan insisted Tuesday that it would do without Russian gas in 2007, with First Vice-Premier Yaqub Eyubov dismissing Gazprom's demand that it pay US$235 — up from US$110 (€83) — as "absurd." He said Baku was in talks with neighboring Iran over potential supplies.
Moldova, now paying US$160 (€120) per 1,000 cubic meters, has agreed to a deal under which it will pay US$170 (€130) next year and more every year until it reaches average European prices — minus the transit fees — in 2011, Medvedev said. Moldova will pay part of the price by handing over shares in gas concerns including its distribution system, he said.
1 | 2 Next Page
http://www.iht.com:80/articles/ap/2006/12/26/business/EU_FIN_Belarus_Russia_Gas_War.php
Saddam is dead at 8 pm Mtn timd.
I have answered all the mail.
It would be un-lady-like, for me to comment on Russia's gas sharing plans.
Or, "What do you expect to happen ? in Russia?"
Nope not a bit surprised.
December 29, 2006 Anti-Terrorism News
(Afghanistan) 10 Taliban militants die in Afghan clash
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061229/ap_on_re_as/afghanistan_3
(Afghanistan) Foreign troops will flee Afghanistan: Taliban chief
Mullah Mohammad Omar
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061229/wl_nm/afghan_taliban_dc_1
(Thailand) 3 killed in Thailand's restive south - 2 Buddhist teachers
burned to death
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061229/ap_on_re_as/thailand_southern_violence_1
Thai insurgency targets Buddhists - Islamist terrorists calling for
Thailand to be Islamic nation
http://www.washingtontimes.com/world/20061229-120148-2009r.htm
(Iraq) U.S. forces kill 6 during raids in Iraq
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061229/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_raids_1
(Iraq) Defense lawyer: Saddam Hussein 'will hang tomorrow'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/worldnews.html?in_article_id=425309&in_page_id=1811&ico=Homepage&icl=TabModule&icc=NEWS&ct=5
(Iraq) Officials: Saddam still in U.S. custody
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061229/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_061229112360
(Iraq) NBC: Saddam to be hanged by Sunday - Ex-dictator's execution
expected to be carried out by start of Eid holiday
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16384738/
(Iraq) British soldier killed by roadside bomb in southern Iraq
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/12/29/europe/EU_GEN_Britain_Iraq.php
(Iraq) 12,000 Iraqi police reported killed by terrorists since 2003
http://www.boston.com/news/world/middleeast/articles/2006/12/25/12000_iraqi_police_reported_killed_since_03/
Two Iranians held by US in Iraq freed
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=data/middleeast/2006/December/middleeast_December475.xml§ion=middleeast
Christians flee Iraq, find Syria 'ruthless'
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53549
(India) One killed, three hurt by Kashmir roadside bomb
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061229/wl_sthasia_afp/indiakashmirunrest_061229083312
(India) One hurt while making bomb - Patna
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS/Cities/Patna/One_hurt_while_making_bomb/articleshow/969210.cms
(Russia) Major terror attack prevented in Grozny - ministry
http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/0/28.html?id_issue=11656097
(Philippines) Indonesian and Filipino rebels charged with murder in
terror attack
http://www.sunstar.com.ph/static/net/2006/12/29/indonesian.and.filipino.rebels.charged.with.murder.in.terror.attack.(5.30.p.m.).html
(Gaza) Journalists Complain of Being Targeted by Gaza Terrorists
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/news.php3?id=118367
(Israel) IDF arrests 5 Hamas members in West Bank
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3345983,00.html
(Somalia) Islamic leader vows to stay in Somalia
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061229/ap_on_re_af/somalia_140
Somali troops enter Mogadishu to cheers
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061229/ap_on_re_af/somalia_138
(Sudan) US: Arafat responsible for diplomat's death - Arafat behind
attack on US embassy in Sudan 34 years ago
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3345941,00.html
Al Qaeda's Egyptian ideological origins
http://washingtontimes.com/commentary/20061228-090907-9770r.htm
(Indonesia) Counter-terrorism a priority for Indonesia - Noordin
Mohammed Top on run, 60 Bali bombers freed, Bashir cleared by court in 2006
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,20989432-1702,00.html
UAE rejects US criticism on export of sensitive material - US
criticizing UAE customs for failing to to stop export of sensitive material that
could be used for terrorist attacks
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061228/wl_mideast_afp/uaeustradesecurity_061228181126
Thwarting terrorists: Chemical-plant rules have to be strong
http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/newssentinel/news/editorial/16343952.htm
Michigan's Hezbollah Connection Uncovered
http://www.sierratimes.com/06/12/28/64_12_117_8_66334.htm
(UK) Government to order more protective suits for terror attack
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061229/wl_uk_afp/britainpoliceterrorism_061229101315
(UK) 'Dirty bomb' police numbers rise
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/click/rss/1.0/-/2/hi/uk_news/6215795.stm
(Australia) Pastors' convictions for quoting Quran overturned - Case
was brought under version of 'hate crimes' legislation
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53526
Syria's forgotten -- but dangerous -- nuclear program
http://www.examiner.com/a-478177~Olivier_Guitta__Plan_B__Syria_s_forgotten___but_dangerous___nuclear_program.html
North Korea "grave threat" after nuclear test: Seoul
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061229/ts_nm/korea_defence_threat_dc_2
http://www.nypost.com/seven/12292006/news/regionalnews/i_got_a_fake_id_in_5_minutes_flat_regionalnews_marianne_garvey.htm
http://www.nypost.com
New York Post
I GOT A FAKE ID IN 5 MINUTES FLAT
By MARIANNE GARVEY
December 29, 2006 -- With $50 in cash and in five minutes' time, I had
myself a fake ID.
That's how easy it is for a teenager to snag a bogus ID that can be
used to
get into nightclubs and bars.
I strolled into Electronic Concept, a store that sells sunglasses and
stereos, located on Eighth Avenue and 45th Street, and asked the
manager,
"Do you sell fake IDs?"
"Yes, right over here," he said, handing me a form to fill out.
I chatted with him while I scribbled "Sara Sanders" in the name slot.
He's been selling the fake IDs for two years and "never had a problem,"
he
said.
"Lots of teenagers come in to buy them," he said.
I finished the form and made up a fake birth date, subtracting five
years
from my actual age.
I invented an address in Danbury, Conn., and picked a Social Security
number
as if I were playing Lotto.
The only thing that matters for the underage kids is the fake birth
date so
the ID will show them as being at least 21 years old.
The employee passed my form to another worker, who entered all my
information into a computer and snapped my picture with a cheap digital
camera.
"Smile!" he said.
They downloaded and Photoshopped my face onto the ID and, in a snap, we
were
done. I handed over the cash and had my ID in hand.
It was the same routine at El-Cid Camera and Electronics, located
across the
street.
They were even brave enough to advertise "IDs for Sale" outside and
charged
only $40.
mailto:marianne.garvey@nypost.com
marianne.garvey@nypost.com
TerroristWarning.com Terrorism Headlines 12/29/2006 # 1
Don't forget to monitor www.GlobalIncidentMap.com throughout your day.
National:
[Palm Beach Post] FLORIDA - Police arrest man for making bomb threats in Fort Pierce
"Police arrested a man they believe made 10 phone calls to 911 claiming city hall would be bombed"
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/localnews/content/local_news/epaper/2006/12/29/1229bomb.html
[CBS] CALIFORNIA - Train Station Closed After Man Spills Mercury
"Police Say Suspect Did It Intentionally"
http://cbs2.com/topstories/local_story_359230307.html
[Gainesville Sun] FLORIDA - Mall closes with late afternoon bomb threat
"bomb squad from the Alachua County Sheriff's Office was dispatched to the mall after two unidentified packages were found by the Gainesville Police Department at the J.C. Penney store"
http://www.gainesville.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061224/MISC/61224037/-1/news
[WHP/CBS] PENNSYLVANIA - Hazmat Scare at Turnpike Stop
"Investigators in Lebanon County are still trying to figure out what made three men sick at a turnpike travel plaza"
"Around 8:30 Monday morning hazmat crews were called to the Lawn Service Plaza after three men, all traveling separately, became sick in the bathroom"
http://www.whptv.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=92df4773-9cc2-47e4-b0dd-1dda4a677264
[AP] USA / MEXICO BORDER - Mexican Police Detain 4 Iraqis in Border City of Tijuana
http://www.aina.org/news/20061224201723.htm
Alternate Link http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/12/24/america/LA_GEN_Mexico_Iraq.php
[El Paso Times] NEW MEXICO - Suspicious package reported in Las Cruces
"package turned out to be an abandoned briefcase with suspicious writing on it that had been left outside the mall near the sidewalk"
http://www.elpasotimes.com/breakingnews/ci_4903259
[WIS TV] SOUTH CAROLINA - Rumors of Orangeburg gang attack only urban legend say officials [TW Editor - These rumors appear to have morphed to include terrorist activity]
http://www.wistv.com/Global/story.asp?S=5848179
[Times and Democrat] SOUTH CAROLINA - Gang shooting rumor spreads like wildfire
"None of the stories is true"
http://www.thetandd.com/articles/2006/12/22/news/doc458af4c9ef24c086812300.txt
[Albany Democrat] OREGON - Public safety Log
"someone found what appeared to a be a pipe bomb under the Pacific Boulevard overpass"
"An Amtrack train was delayed for about half an hour due to the discovery"
http://www.dhonline.com/articles/2006/12/26/news/local/6loc06_policelog.txt
[The Monitor] TEXAS - Officers search for bomb at south-side hospitals
"after receiving a bomb threat against an unnamed McAllen hospital"
http://www.themonitor.com/SiteProcessor.cfm?Template=/GlobalTemplates/Details.cfm&StoryID=17100&Section=Local
[Herald-Zeitung ] TEXAS - FBI probes suspicious substance
"unidentified white powder found in an envelope inside the Commissioners’ Court building on Main Plaza sent hazardous material crews and two FBI agents to the building Wednesday evening on suspicions of anthrax"
http://herald-zeitung.com/story.lasso?ewcd=992518bd5f782a8a
[CNET] CALIFORNIA - Police blotter: Web at heart of ecoterror lawsuit [Good article on animal rights terrorism]
"how are you sleeping? You never know when your house, your car even, might go boom. Who knows, that new car in the parking lot may be packed with explosives. Or maybe it will be a shot in the dark"
http://news.com.com/Police+blotter+Web+at+heart+of+ecoterror+lawsuit/2100-1030_3-6145522.html
[AP] UTAH - Idaho Professor Arrested In Utah For Hoax [Hantavirus]
"...planned to send her bankruptcy documents that included a substance in them that would expose her to the hantavirus"
"arrested Tuesday night by the FBI at the Salt Lake City International Airport after a flight from Chicago"
http://kutv.com/local/local_story_362130512.html
[KeepMeCurrent.com] MAINE - Homemade explosives destroy mailboxes in Scarborough
http://www.keepmecurrent.com/Community/story.cfm?storyID=30245
[Deseret Morning News ] UTAH - Bomb threat forces evacuation of IM Flash Technologies
http://deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,650218648,00.html
[Paradise Post] CALIFORNIA - FBI investigates Paradise man for alleged threats
"man is being held in Sacramento in relation to alleged threats made to hotels, Jewish museums, and other locations"
http://www.paradisepost.com/breakingnews/ci_4914386
[Dresden Enterprise] 12/22/2006 - TENNESSEE - Explosion reported at Ned R. McWherter National Guard Armory in Dresden [One we missed]
"Due to the fact that the explosion took place at a federal military installation, investigators from Fort Campbell will lead the investigation"
http://www.dresdenenterprise.com/news.htm
[AINA] USA / MEXICO BORDER - Iraqis, Mostly Chaldeans, Are Entering U.S. Through Mexico
http://www.aina.org/news/20061228120123.htm
[Jim Kouri] MICHIGAN - Michigan's Hezbollah Connection Uncovered
http://www.sierratimes.com/06/12/28/64_12_117_8_66334.htm
[The Tennessean ] TENNESSEE - Terminal evacuated after security breach at NIA
"after some unscreened passengers slipped around security lines, airport officials said.
The passengers could not be located, prompting the evacuation of all passenger areas so that travelers could be re-screened"
http://www.dicksonherald.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061228/NEWS03/61228012
International:
[CBS/AP] IRAQ - U.S.: Saddam Likely To Die By Sunday
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/12/28/iraq/main2304318.shtml
[AP] MALAYSIA - US Embassy in Malaysia receives suspicious package
http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/003200612281211.htm
[AP] PHILIPPINES - Suspected bomb blast wounds three people in Philippine mall, officials say
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/12/28/asia/AS_GEN_Philippines_Mall_Explosion.php
[The Peninsula] ISRAEL - Rocket attack injures 2 Israelis
http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Display_news.asp?section=World_News&month=December2006&file=World_News2006122725028.xml
[Zee News] INDIA - US citizen detained for carrying rifle, cartridges at Chennai airport
"officials said they were surprised how the baggage was not noticed by the airport officials at Frankfurt"
http://www.zeenews.com/znnew/articles.asp?aid=344245&sid=NAT
[Xinhua] PAKISTAN - Car bomb blast injures 3 in NW Pakistani airport
http://english.people.com.cn/200612/26/eng20061226_335919.html
See also http://www.paktribune.com/news/index.shtml?164158
See also http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/8A4582BA-EDB1-4587-8AD9-9CD2B837E5A1.htm
[KUNA] ISRAEL - Bomb blast at Fatah activista home [Infighting]
http://www.kuna.net.kw/home/story.aspx?Language=en&DSNO=937067
[PTI] INDIA - Chemicals seized from two train passengers
http://www.newkerala.com/news4.php?action=fullnews&id=71331
[GreaterKashmir.com] INDIA - Blast near railway track in Assam
"Suspected ULFA militants exploded a bomb near a railway line in Nalbari district of lower Asom in the early hours.
Official reports here said the blast occurred at about 0300 hours near the broad gauge railway line at Bakura near Nalbari"
http://www.greaterkashmir.com/Home/Newsdetails.asp?newsid=2075&Issueid=103&Arch=
[Today Online] THAILAND - Two shot dead in Thailand's restive south
http://www.todayonline.com/articles/162673.asp
[AP] EGYPT - 5 linked to Muslim Brotherhood arrested
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/world/16314066.htm
[Ynet] ISRAEL - Qassam hits strategic facility in Ashkelon
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3344184,00.html
[Reuters] ETHIOPIA - Ethiopian jets bomb Mogadishu airport, one wounded
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L25224859.htm
[PTI] INDIA - LeT militant arrested in Rajouri
"3.5 kg of explosives were recovered "
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS/India/LeT_militant_arrested_in_Rajouri/articleshow/935282.cms
[Interfax] RUSSIA - Six detained for promoting extremism in Astrakhan
"An improvised explosive device made from a 400-gram TNT bloc, an electric detonator and strike elements, as well as brochures, books and CDs promoting extremist ideas were confiscated from one of the suspects"
http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/politics/28.html?id_issue=11653496
[THT Online] INDIA - 2 Killed in Morang Stray Bomb Explosion
"Two women were killed and two others injured in a stray bomb explosion at Urlabari bus park "
http://www.thehimalayantimes.com/fullstory.asp?filename=6a8Wa9a8a.9amal&folder=aHaoamW&Name=Home&dtSiteDate=20061226
[CCTV.com] JAPAN - Norwalk virus outbreak
"The worst outbreak of contagious gastrointestinal disease in a quarter century has hit Japan. A number of people have already died"
http://www.cctv.com/english/20061226/102583.shtml
[CCTV.com] RUSSIA - Russian forces fight suspected militants [Photos]
"In Russia, security forces have fought with a group of suspected militants, holed up in an apartment building. The gun battle took place Monday in the city of Cherkessk in the southern republic of Karachayevo-Cherkessia"
http://www.cctv.com/english/20061226/101052.shtml
[Jerusalem Post] ISRAEL - IDF, Shin Bet arrest Islamic Jihad leader in Jenin
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1164881980664&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
[Xinhua] ISRAEL - Armed wing of Islamic Jihad shells southern Israel
http://english.eastday.com/eastday/englishedition/node20665/node20669/node22812/node148783/node148785/userobject1ai2531236.html
[Reuters] GLOBAL - Nuke trafficking doubles in five years
http://eden.yourguide.com.au/detail.asp?class=international%20news&subclass=general&story_id=542929&category=general
[IsraelNN.com] ISRAEL - Pipe Bomb Thrown at Rachel's Tomb; No Injuries
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/news.php3?id=118234
[DPA] 12/25 - PHILIPPINES - Motorcycle booby trap discovered
"an undetermined amount of picric acid was placed inside the tank, while an alarm clock and a blasting cap was attached to it"
http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=124369&version=1&template_id=45&parent_id=25
[UPI] MACEDONIA - Macedonia Police Intercept Explosives
http://www.playfuls.com/news_10_6523-Macedonia-Police-Intercept-Explosives.html
[Prensa Latina] IRAQ - Baghdad Car Bomb Kills 8
"Wednesday attack was very similar to another carried out in Baghdad on Tuesday, which left nearly 30 casualties"
http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID=%7B8E95F974-E475-4885-BA93-E1551B2FA518%7D)&language=EN
[IANS] KASHMIR - Two injured in Kashmir blast
"Police said the improvised explosive device (IED) went off outside a government college in Baramulla town"
http://www.teluguportal.net/modules/news/article.php?storyid=26508
[Imphal Free Press] INDIA - Three bombs found
http://www.kanglaonline.com/index.php?template=headline&newsid=35522&typeid=1
[PTI] INDIA - Three kidnapped by militants in Tripura
"In a separate incident, a landmine planted at Swapnabari, a tribal hamlet in Dhalai district, exploded when the vehicle of an engineer of NF Railway was crossing the area"
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS/India/Three_kidnapped_by_militants_in_Tripura/articleshow/955067.cms
[Reuters] IRAQ - Security developments in Iraq, 27 Dec 2006
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/YSAR-6WVQLX?OpenDocument
[AFX] PRAGUE - Aeroflot makes emergency landing in Prague after passenger bomb claim
http://www.forbes.com/home_asia/feeds/afx/2006/12/28/afx3285524.html
See also 'family dispute' http://news.monstersandcritics.com/europe/news/article_1237492.php/Family_dispute_on_Russian_plane_causes_hijack_scare__Roundup
[Interfax] RUSSIA - Two hospitals evacuated in Grozny over threat of explosion
"A source in the Chechen Interior Ministry told Interfax that a message had been found at Hospital 9 at 1:45 p.m. threatening terrorist acts both there and at Hospital 4"
http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/politics/28.html?id_issue=11655514
[Daily Star] BANGLADESH - 2 AL men hurt in bomb attacks in Chuadanga
http://www.thedailystar.net/2006/12/29/d61229014525.htm
[SABC] SOUTH AFRICA - Police look for eight more bombs in the Cape
http://www.sabcnews.com/south_africa/crime1justice/0,2172,140904,00.html
[National News] UNITED KINGDOM - Anti-terror cops inspect nuclear university
"amid fears that extremists may steal steal radioactive materials to make dirty bombs"
http://www.lse.co.uk/ShowStory.asp?story=CH2732480Y&news_headline=anti-terror_cops_inspect_nuclear_university
[Times News Network] INDIA - One hurt while making bomb
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS/Cities/Patna/One_hurt_while_making_bomb/articleshow/969210.cms
[Guardian] TANZANIA - Mystery as TPDF uncovers 48 hand grenade stockpile
http://www.ippmedia.com/ipp/guardian/2006/12/29/81286.html
[icLanarkshire] UNITED KINGDOM - Bomb disposal experts were called to Blantyre last week after three suspect devices were found
http://iclanarkshire.icnetwork.co.uk/hamiltonadvertiser/news/tm_headline=&method=full&objectid=18346440&siteid=50144-name_page.html
[APP] PAKISTAN - Terrorist arrested, accomplice killed in police encounter
http://www.app.com.pk/en/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1280&Itemid=2
Feedback on our alerts is always welcome: News@TerroristWarning.com
For more transportation related terrorism and security items please sign up at www.TransitSecurityReport.com
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116736247579862262.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
An L.A. Police Bust
Shows New Tactics
For Fighting Terror
Officers Use Local Laws
To Arrest Small Offenders
With High-Risk Potential
Foiling a Chechen 'Charity'
By ROBERT BLOCK
December 29, 2006; Page A1
LOS ANGELES -- In September 2004, just days after Chechen rebels raided
a
school in Beslan, Russia, killing 331 men, women and children, the Los Angeles Police Department summoned senior officers to its decaying
downtown
headquarters. The issue on the table: What would they do if a similar
attack
took place here?
Most of the talk that morning was about where to deploy SWAT teams if
terrorists ever took over a local school. Detective Mark Severino, one
of
the city's counterterrorist investigators, then asked his colleagues:
"Do we
even have Chechen extremists in Los Angeles?" Blank stares and silence
filled the room. His boss at the time, Deputy Chief John Miller, told
him to
go find out.
[M S]Within weeks, Detective Severino, working with a team of LAPD
intelligence analysts, tapped Russian underworld informants, and
uncovered
an international car-theft ring that wound its way from the streets of
Los Angeles to the Chechens' doorstep in the Republic of Georgia. The
California
racket was disguised as a charity group sending aid to the region.
Based on
other information, Detective Severino suspected that the operation was
more
than just a fraud scheme. His theory: The proceeds from stolen cars
might
somehow be financing Chechen terrorist operations around the world.
On Feb. 15, 2006, the LAPD busted eight people for fraud in connection
with
the alleged scam and issued arrest warrants for 11 others. Chechen
terrorist
financing was never mentioned in the indictments or in the press
release
that trumpeted the takedown of the operation. There were no news
conferences
claiming victory in the war on terror.
continued........
December 29, 2006 PM Anti-Terrorism News
Al-Qaeda airs tape before Islam festival
http://lifestyle.monstersandcritics.com/religion/news/article_1237927.php/Al-Qaeda_airs_tape_before_Islam_festival
(Al Qaeda) New Zawahiri tape: Congratulations on the Eid To The Ummah
of Tawhid
http://www.lauramansfield.com/www.lauramansfield.com/forum_8/
Audio Download:
http://www.lauramansfield.com/zawahiri_eid.wmv
Official: Saddam to be executed tonight
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061229/ap_on_re_mi_ea/saddam_7
Sources: Hussein execution nears - Reports conflict over whether
Hussein is in U.S. or Iraqi custody - Hussein lawyers seek restraining order
in U.S. court to block execution
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/12/29/hussein/index.html
Iraqi Prime Minister Signs Saddam Hussein's Death Sentence; Saddam
Hussein Transferred to Iraqi Custody; Judge Says He'll Be Executed by
Saturday - Hussein was convicted on November 5 for crimes against humanity
in connection with the killings of 148 people; Hussein was also
responsible for the massacre of 100,000 Kurds
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,239783,00.html
Saddam Hussein's Atrocities
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,239897,00.html
(Iraq) Suicide attack on Iraq Shiite mosque kills nine
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061229/wl_mideast_afp/iraqunrestmosque_061229132730
(Somalia) Thousands Greet Somalia's PM in Capital
http://ap.washingtontimes.com/dynamic/stories/S/SOMALIA?SITE=DCTMS&SECTION=HOME
Analysis: Somalia's Terrorists
http://counterterrorismblog.org/2006/12/somalias_terrorists.php
LAPD and the Chechen terrorists
http://www.laobserved.com/archive/2006/12/lapd_and_the_chechen_terr.php
Hezbollah involved in Lebanon assassinations: Lebanese MP Walid
Jumblatt
http://www.khaleejtimes.ae/DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=data/middleeast/2006/December/middleeast_December479.xml§ion=middleeast&col=
(Lebanon) U.S. Investigations Lead to Arrests in Gemayel Assassination
Case
http://counterterrorismblog.org/2006/12/us_investigations_lead_to_arre.php
Revered Saudi cleric denounces Shi'ites as infidels
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L29791215.htm
EU: Dutch Group on Terror List - Freezing Assets of 'Hofstad Group'
http://www.adnki.com/index_2Level.php?cat=Terrorism&loid=8.0.372218238&par=0
"State of the Sunni Insurgency in Iraq: 2006"
http://www.globalterroralert.com/pdf/1206/iraqinsurgency1206.pdf
US News and World Report "Best Blogs of '06": Counterterrorism Blog
Tops List of Favorite Sites
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/badguys/
Commentary: A question for 2007: The Year of Shutting Up? - Diana West
http://www.washingtontimes.com/op-ed/20061228-090909-5985r.htm
Commentary: Winds of War: Why We Can Lose to the Islamists
http://the-gathering-storm.blogspot.com/2006/12/winds-of-war-why-we-can-lose-to.html
American Professor: Bin Laden NOT Responsible for 9/11
http://www.thememriblog.org/blog_personal/en/218.htm
Related News:
(UK) Row over ethnic minority only swimming sessions for women and
children
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=425238&in_page_id=1770
(Germany) East Berlin's First Mosque - virtually no Muslims live in
area
http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,456751,00.html
http://www.gulfnews.com/opinion/columns/region/10092804.html
Nuclear sanctions and Iran's neighbours
By Tanvir Ahmad Khan, Special to Gulf News
The UN Security Council has finally adopted a considerably diluted
resolution setting out non-military sanctions to curb Iran's nuclear
and
ballistic missiles programme. A US-led group of nations will seek
satisfaction in the possibility of harsher sanctions in future.
A defiant Iran would accelerate the installation of centrifuges to step
up
uranium enrichment. The protracted tussle over the nuclear issue may
vitiate
the debate on Iran's emerging role in the region.
A sanctions resolution was the prize that the US sought in getting the
Iran
case transferred from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to
the
Security Council.
At the IAEA, there was always considerable acceptance of the Iranian
claim
that Iran had by and large abided by its obligations as a signatory to
the
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and that it was willing to work under
IAEA
safeguards.
The anti-Iran coalition has all along argued that Iran has a
clandestine
nuclear military project and, therefore, its nuclear infrastructure
should
be dismantled.
The Natanz facility in Iran represents a very early stage of the route
that
Pakistani took to attain nuclear weapon capability. It will need an
exponential expansion and a dramatic acquisition of weapon technology
to
pose any meaningful nuclear threat.
Meir Dagan, the Mossad chief, has just warned the Knesset committee on
foreign affairs that in case Iran can add sufficient numbers of
centrifuges,
it may produce about 25 kgs of enriched uranium by 2009. Many other
experts
think Iran would take a decade to reach weapon-grade enriched uranium
and
acquire the more challenging weaponisation technology.
Clearly, the nuclear issue is part of the campaign to prevent the
emergence
of Iran as a major regional player without first undergoing a
pro-Western
regime change. Hopes of bringing about this change have receded as the
United States has sunk deeper into the Iraq quagmire.
The Baker-Hamiliton report unambiguously acknowledges that Iran (and
Syria)
would have to be constructively engaged to stabilise the current
chaotic
situation. The lobby that wrote the "axis of evil" script for US
President
George W. Bush is still reluctant to swallow this bitter pill.
There are some simple facts about Iran that bear repetition. First,
rhetoric
apart, Iran still considers itself in a state of siege. Its military
posture
is defensive and its dominant doctrine is deterrence against external
threats.
The dualistic structure of its forces - regular military formations and
a
120,000-strong Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - is designed
to
protect the regime internally as well as retain the capability to fight
a
defensive war, part conventional and part unconventional, against a
superior
invading power.
It also sends a strong message to the neighbours that they should not
become
complicit in an anti-Iran military enterprise. This is why Iran draws
attention to its ability to cause major disruptions and dislocations in
the
normal commerce of the region.
The breakdown of Iran's military spending supports objectives of
defence and
deterrence. Its army has not achieved any significant offensive
capability;
its air force has no suppliers of frontline equipment.
The Navy can carry out effective coastal operations backed by the new
400 km
per hour under-water "missile" but cannot take to high seas. Iran has,
however, committed vast resources to the building up of an impressive
missile capability that will take an otherwise defensive battle to
hostile
territory anywhere in the region.
The Shahab series of Iranian missiles seem to have come of age. Shahab
III,
which has more than one variant, has a range extending from 1,500 to
2,000km.
Second, Western expectations of an internal upheaval in Iran have
turned out
to be misconceived but there are undercurrents of restlessness
especially in
the youth. The Islamic revolutionary creed has a built-in tension
between
conservatives and reformists.
Recent elections in Iran indicate that the conservative backlash
against the
"reformist" Khatami era has gone too far and that Iran needs to strike
a
better internal balance.
Third, Iran has yet another stake in regional peace; it must make long
overdue adjustments in its economic policy. Its internal monopolies
tend to
limit benefits to special groups. Its youth wants more equitable
economic
opportunities. The key oil and gas sector needs large inputs of money
and
technology.
Iran's real gain has, however, come from the transformation of the
strategic
space in its neighbourhood. The IRGC is well trained to take advantage
of
this change.
It played a significant role in Hezbollah's gallant fight against
Israel in
August; its links with some powerful militias in Iraq have put the
objective
of turning Iraq, or a large part of it, into a friendly zone within
Iran's
grasp.
Epistemological curtain
There has been an epistemological curtain between Iran and its
neighbours
-Afghanistan and Pakistan on the one side and the arc of Muslim states
from
the Gulf to Egypt to Turkey on the other.
Syria has been a notable exception and the reasons for Iranian-Syrian
entente need to be appreciated better. Meanwhile the putative threat of
Iran
to the region is again being exaggerated.
Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair saw an unbridgeable Manichean
divide
between Iran and the Arabs during his valedictory visit to it. Israel
continues to urge the US to maintain a tough line on Iran. Sensational
stories of Saudi concern about the rise of Iranian power grab headlines
in
the western media.
Iran must intensify the initiatives of Mohammad Khatami, a former
Iranian
president, to reassure all its neighbours that it seeks cooperation and
not
confrontation. The neighbours should also carry conviction in Tehran
that
they are not a part of the siege planned by the US.
Isolating Iran would tilt Iran's internal politics in favour of its
hardline
factions. The entire region has a tryst with the 21st century but it
can
keep it only by creating a more harmonious climate of inter-state
relations.
Apprehensions about Iran's nuclearisation should not become a reason
for an
endless conflict.
Israel's options vs.Iran's bomb
http://www.upi.com/InternationalIntelligence/view.php?StoryID=20061228-02395
0-6537r
Analysis: Israel's options vs.Iran's bomb
By JOSHUA BRILLIANT
UPI Israel Correspondent
TEL AVIV, Israel, Dec. 28 (UPI) -- At a recent conference in Tehran
Iranian
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad predicted Israel's days are numbered.
The Zionist regime will "vanish," he declared. Last year he said Israel
should be "wiped out."
Analysts maintain Iran needs a year or more to produce 25 kilos of
enriched
uranium for a first nuclear bomb. That bomb might be ready by the end
of the
decade.
Israel has been trying to mobilize the world to block Iran. "We hope...
the
world will pull itself together and act firmly to block the danger in
time,"
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Thursday. The United Nations' Security
Council has taken "an important step in the right direction," he added.
There is another venue. Former minister Dan Meridor headed a
government-appointed committee that recently recommended a defense
policy
for the next decade. It devoted 50 of its 250-page report to an
examination
of ways to deal with the nuclear threat.
Meridor discussed it with the prime minister, the defense minister and
the
Mossad intelligence service. Parts of it are so secret that even the
military's General Staff was not apprised of it.
Maj. Gen. in the reserves Yaakov Amidror, who dealt with the threat
during
his military career, said at a recent discussion in Tel Aviv that
Israel has
two options. "None are good, each one is difficult and each one is
dangerous," he said.
One is to stop the Iranians by force. It would be a much more difficult
task
than Israel's attack on the Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981. The Iranian
facilities are farther away. Israel would need "very, very accurate
intelligence" to hit the "network of installations" spread over a wide
area.
Some installations are located in underground tunnels, he added.
Attacking Iran is tantamount to signing an open check because the
minute
Teheran will have a bomb, it will retaliate, he warned.
The alternative is to accept the fact Iran will be a nuclear power and
focus
on defense.
Israel would need an "active defense system" including missiles that
could
intercept Iranian attacks. It already has the Arrow ballistic missile
interceptor and might want the United States to provide more weapons
and
deploy naval systems off its coast. It would have to invest energy and
funds
in preparations for subsequent, more advanced Iranian missiles.
"There is no human possibility of building a system that is 100 percent
safe," Amidror stressed.
Israel is very small, most of its population is near Tel Aviv, so every
nuclear attack could cause terrible damage.
Israel would therefore need a deterrent that the Iranians would know
that if
they attack, Israel will retaliate so forcefully that, "There won't be
any
Iranians left to count their dead," Amidror said.
However, some experts doubt Israel can deter what they described as the
ideology that Ahmadinejad and other Iranians espouse.
Deterrence worked during the Cold War because the U.S. and Soviet
leaders
were rational, but Shiite-Muslims might be different. Some Iranians,
including Ahmadinejad, believe that the imam who disappeared 1,000
years ago
is about to return. Bloodshed will speed his coming and then the
Muslims
will rule the world.
Should Israel then try to join NATO?
Meridor's committee considered the idea. It would limit Israel's
options, he
said.
"I don't think that in any military alliance one side (in this case,
Israel)
can take action without the other side (its partners) agreeing, or else
you
(Israel) will not be protected by the results," he maintained.
"Israel's deterrence is. ...built on our capabilities that I think are
quite
impressive .... and on the readiness and ability to take an action
based on
this capability," he added.
The country's enemies believe the United States is committed to defend
it.
"Is a formal alliance such an important addition? ... The enemy should
know
that I am the man, or the government, that is going to defend my people
even
at this or that cost and I don't think that an official alliance will
add
much to that," he said.
Professor Uzi Arad who was responsible for research in the Mossad and
later
top adviser to the then Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, advocated
"maximum deterrence."
Israel should threaten to strike "everything and anything of value," he
said.
Should Israel threaten to hit their leadership? Yes. Their holiest
sites?
Yes. Everything together? Yes, Arad recommended.
However Isaac Ben-Israel, a retired major general who heads Tel Aviv
University's Security Studies Program doubted deterrence would succeed.
A nuclear bomb that would explode on board a ship at Haifa port would
kill
some 5,000 people, he said. "What rational Israeli leader would drop a
bomb
on Teheran knowing that another (Iranian) missile would come?"
Would Prime Minister Ehud Olmert "Do something in which tens of
thousands of
people would be killed in addition (to those 5,000)? .... Deterrence
doesn't
exist for long unless (antagonists) ... can totally destroy each
other," he
added.
An effective preemptive strike is possible, Ben-Israel continued.
Building a
nuclear bomb is a process of many stages, one leading to another. There
is
no need to attack all the installations involved. It is enough to hit
one of
the links, and if Iran has two nuclear programs underway, then two
spots, he
said.
Underground tunnels are not bomb proof. Ben-Israel, who planned the
bombing
of the Iraqi reactor, said its core was surrounded by 2X2X2 meters of
reinforced concrete at a depth of 36 meters. It was destroyed a quarter
of a
century ago, he noted.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.