World Terrorism: News, History and Research Of A Changing World #6 Disinformation, Inc.

VEVAK learned its methodology from the Soviet KGB and many of the Islamist revolutionaries who supported Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini actually studied at Moscow's Patrice Lumumba Friendship University, the Oxford of terrorism. Documented Iranian alumni include the current Supreme Leader (the faqih) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, under whose Velayat-e Faqih (Rule of the Islamic Jurisprudent) apparatus it has traditionally operated. Its current head is Cabinet Minister Hojatoleslam Gholam-Hussein Mohseni-Ezhei, a graduate of Qom's Haqqani School, noted for its extremist position advocating violence against enemies and strict clerical control of society and government. The Ministry is very well funded and its charge, like that of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (the Pasdaran) is to guard the revolutionary Islamic Iranian regime at all costs and under all contingencies.

From the KGB playbook, VEVAK learned the art of disinformation. It's not so difficult to learn: tell the truth 80% of the time and lie 20%. Depending on how well a VEVAK agent wants to cover his/her tracks, the ratio may go up to 90/10, but it never drops below the 80/20 mark as such would risk suspicion and possible detection. The regime in Teheran has gone to great lengths to place its agents in locations around the world. Many of these operatives have been educated in the West, including the U.K. and the United States. Iranian government agencies such as embassies, consulates, Islamic cultural centers, and airline offices regularly provide cover for the work of VEVAK agents who dress well and are clean shaven, and move comfortably within our society. In this country, because of the severance of diplomatic relations, the principal site of VEVAK activities begins at the offices of Iran's Permanent Mission to the UN in New York.

Teheran has worked diligently to place its operatives in important think tanks and government agencies in the West. Some of its personnel have been recruited while in prison through torture or more often through bribery, or a combination of both. Others are Islamist revolutionaries that have been set up to look like dissidents - often having been arrested and imprisoned, but released for “medical reasons”. The clue to detecting the fake “dissident” is to read carefully what he/she writes, and to ask why this vocal “dissident” was released from prison when other real dissidents have not been released, indeed have been grievously tortured and executed. Other agents have been placed in this country for over twenty-five years to slowly go through the system and rise to positions of academic prominence due to their knowledge of Farsi and Shia Islam or Islamist fundamentalism.

One of the usual tactics of VEVAK is to co-opt academia to its purposes. Using various forms of bribery, academics are bought to defend the Islamic Republic or slander its enemies. Another method is to assign bright students to train for academic posts as specialists in Iranian or Middle East affairs. Once established, such individuals are often consulted by our government as it tries to get a better idea of how it should deal with Iran. These academics then are in a position to skew the information, suggesting the utility of extended dialogue and negotiation, or the danger and futility of confronting a strong Iran or its proxies such as Hizballah (Hezbollah). These academics serve to shield the regime from an aggressive American or Western policy, and thereby buy more time for the regime to attain its goals, especially in regards to its nuclear weaponry and missile programs.

MOIS likes to use the media, especially electronic media, to its advantage. One of VEVAK's favorite tricks is setting up web sites that look like they are opposition sites but which are actually controlled by the regime. These sites often will be multilingual, including Farsi, German, Arabic French, and English. Some are crafted carefully and are very subtle in how they skew their information (e.g., Iran-Interlink, set up and run by Massoud Khodabandeh and his wife Ann Singleton from Leeds, England); others are less subtle, simply providing the regime's point of view on facts and events in the news (e.g., www.mujahedeen.com or www.mojahedin.ws). This latter group is aimed at the more gullible in our open society and unfortunately such a market exists. However, if one begins to do one's homework, asking careful questions, the material on these fake sites generally does not add up.

Let's examine a few examples of VEVAK's work in the United States. In late October, 2005, VEVAK sent three of its agents to Washington to stage a press event in which the principal Iranian resistance movement, the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MeK), was to be slandered. Veteran VEVAK agent Karim Haqi flew from Amsterdam to Canada where he was joined by VEVAK's Ottawa agents Amir-Hossein Kord Rostami and Mahin (Parvin-Mahrokh) Haji, and the three flew from Toronto to Washington. Fortunately the resistance had been tracking these three, informed the FBI of their presence in Washington, and when the three tried to hold a press conference, the resistance had people assigned to ask pointed questions of them so that they ended the interview prematurely and fled back to Canada.

Abolghasem Bayyenet is a member of the Iranian government. He serves as a trade expert for the Ministry of Commerce. But his background of study and service in the Foreign Ministry indicates that Bayyenet is more than just an economist or a suave and savvy businessman. In an article published in Global Politician on April 23, 2006, entitled “Is Regime Change Possible in Iran?”, Bayyenet leads his audience to think that he is a neutral observer, concerned lest the United States make an error in its assessment of Iran similar to the errors of intelligence and judgment that led to our 2003 invasion of Iraq, with its less than successful outcome. However, his carefully crafted bottom line is that the people of Iran are not going to support regime change and that hardliner President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad actually has achieved greater popularity than his predecessors because of his concern for the problems of the poor and his fight for economic and social justice. To the naive, Bayyenet makes Ahmadinejad sound positively saintly. Conveniently overlooked is the occurrence of over four thousand acts of protest, strikes, anti-regime rallies, riots, and even political assassinations by the people of Iran against the government in the year since Ahmadinejad assumed office. So too, the following facts are ignored: the sizeable flight of capital, the increase in unemployment, and the rising two-figure rate of inflation, all within this last year. Bayyenet is a regime apologist, and when one is familiar with the facts, his arguments ring very hollow. However, his English skills are excellent, and so the naОve might be beguiled by his commentary.

Mohsen Sazegara is VEVAK's “reformed revolutionary”. A student supporter of Khomeini before the 1979 revolution, Sazegara joined the “imam” on his return from exile and served in the government for a decade before supposedly growing disillusioned.

He formed several reformist newspapers but ran afoul of the hardliners in 2003 and was arrested and imprisoned by VEVAK. Following “hunger strikes”, Sazegara was released for health reasons and permitted to seek treatment abroad. Although critical of the government and particularly of Ahmadinejad and KhameneМ, Sazegara is yet more critical of opposition groups, leaving the impression that he favors internal regime change but sees no one to lead such a movement for the foreseeable future. His bottom line: no one is capable of doing what needs to be done, so we must bide our time. Very slick, but his shadow shows his likely remaining ties to the MOIS.

Do It Yourself Jihad (back)

February 19, 2007

by Thomas Lifson

The mall massacre in Salt Lake City , Utah , by a Bosnian Muslim killed in the attack, is another reminder that solo practitioners of jihad are a threat anywhere, anytime. Listen to this video recorded at the Trolley Square Mall, at 1 minute 37 seconds into the podcast. You will hear 'OPD.. OPD... Officer Hammond' which is off-duty Odgen Police Department officer Hammond identifying himself for the second time to arriving Salt Lake City PD officers. After this you can hear clearly what appears another voice, in an Arabic accent, say 'allah-hu akhbar, allah-hu akhbar,' and again at 1:47.

The media, of course, are not letting the public know, no doubt afraid of an anti-Muslim backlash, the perennial fear of elites who think of the mass of Americans as a lynch mob not yet organized. Robert Spencer, writing in Front Page Magazine, lists several other recent incidents in which solo Muslims have engaged in apparent attempts at mass slaughter of random people. To his list I would add the attack at the El Al ticket counter at LAX airport.

Usually, families and the authorities chalk-up these incidents to deranged individuals, and assure us no political motivations are in play. That's exactly what happened in 1997, when a Palestinian opened fire on the observation deck of the Empire State Building . Yesterday, an article in the New York Daily News revealed that these explanations were a cover story crafted by the Palestinian Authority.

Ali Abu Kamal's relatives say they are tired of lying about why the Palestinian opened fire on the observation deck of Empire State Building , killing a tourist and injuring six other people before committing suicide.

Kamal's widow insisted after the shooting spree that the attack was not politically motivated. She said that her husband had become suicidal after losing $300,000 in a business venture.

But in a stunning admission, Kamal's 48-year-old daughter Linda told the Daily News that her dad wanted to punish the U.S. for supporting Israel - and revealed her mom's 1997 account was a cover story crafted by the Palestinian Authority.

'A Palestinian Authority official advised us to say the attack was not for political reasons because that would harm the peace agreement with Israel ,' she told The News on Friday. 'We didn't know that he was martyred for patriotic motivations, so we repeated what we were told to do.'

But three days after the shootings, Kamal's family got a copy of a letter that was found on his body, they said. The letter said he planned the violence as a political statement, his daughter said.

'When we wanted to clarify that to the media, nobody listened to us,' she said. 'His goal was patriotic. He wanted to take revenge from the Americans, the British, the French and the Israelis.' [emphasis added]

Nobody is suggesting that all individual Muslims suffer for the acts of a few. But we cannot blind ourselves to the fact that a political war is being carried on within our borders by both organized cells and individuals, intent on killing Americans in the name of jihad. Patriotic American Muslims must join in watching for signs of disturbed individuals acting out the violent rhetoric of Islamists, so freely available in the world's media and on the internet.

Source: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2007/02/do_it_ yourself_jihad.html

Weblog of an American Terror Suspect (back)

February 19, 2007

Daniel Joseph Maldonado a.k.a. Daniel Aljughaifi, is a 28-year-old American Muslim convert charged with conspiring to use weapons of mass destruction outside the United States.

According to court documents, Maldonado fought and trained with Al Qaeda in Somalia . He says he went to Africa to practice 'true Islam'. Not sure what his definition of 'true Islam' is but on his weblog admits to being an 'extremist'.

He allegedly designed and operated an Islamic forum for new Islamic converts. The website Internet Haganah, has a few of his forum postings.

What caught my attention was his May 19, 2006 weblog. He asks: 'Am I a Wahabbi?' (his spelling). The title of that day’s posting: 'Die Hard Wahabbi'.

Click here to learn more about Wahhabi Islam.

From The Houston Chronicle:

Daniel Joseph Maldonado told authorities he was ready to kill Americans for his political beliefs. But the true casualty of his jihad may have been his own wife.

Maldonado, the first American to be charged with training to fight with al-Qaida in Somalia , took his wife and three children with him. There, Tamekia Cunningham succumbed to a high fever that likely was caused by malaria. U.S. officials flew the couple's three children home to their grandparents in New England after Maldonado was captured in Kenya .

And Maldonado, who survived the war and his own bout with malaria, now sits in a jail in Houston facing up to life in prison, accused of studying with a bomb maker.

A Muslim convert who goes by Daniel Aljughaifi, Maldonado was 'Danny' to his high school classmates in Pelham, N.H., a snow-covered land of white pines and sugar maples, where the Revolutionary War more than two centuries ago seems far closer to home than war-torn Africa. Even as a teenager, Maldonado was known for his strong beliefs.

'He was very into his views and political stands,' Jessica Gillis, a classmate at Pelham High School , said via e-mail to the Houston Chronicle. She stressed that he never talked about religion. 'He was not at all violent and only debated his views and stood up for them when in political debates during history class.'

Gillis added that she remembers Maldonado as 'friendly, smart, intelligent and outgoing.'

Dorothy Mohr, an English teacher when Maldonado was at the school and now the principal, agreed that he was talkative and opinionated.

'He always had something to say about whatever,' she said. 'Danny was a nice kid. He probably wasn't as into his studies as (most).'

If Maldonado was not much of a student, he made a lasting impression on his teachers and classmates.

When he entered Pelham High in 1995, he was the only student there in memory to wear his hair in dreadlocks. His freshman yearbook photo shows a shy smile on his face. In the next year's photo, his expression has hardened into a tough-guy stare.

By 1997, his junior year, Maldonado had disappeared from both the yearbook and the high school.

Maldonado, now 28, attended the school in this sleepy bedroom community named for Henry Pelham, the British prime minister when the town was incorporated in 1746. Large wood-frame houses, some dating to the early 1700s, dot the hills and valleys. Most residents commute to jobs in nearby Massachusetts .

Ninety-four percent of the 700 students at the high school are white. Maldonado and his siblings would have stood out just because they were Hispanic. But though yearbook photos show Maldonado's two brothers with short hair and preppy clothes, Danny tried to look different.

Mohr said Danny is the only student she can recall ever having dreadlocks.

'That was his identification statement,' she said. 'I don't know if you've noticed, but we pretty much all look the same. Danny was a memorable character.'

Classmates remember Maldonado as having a good heart and being outspoken.

Maldonado had an older brother, Scott, who one classmate recalls was popular and a star of the soccer team. Scott had a shock of curly hair in front, with the sides and back cut short.

A younger brother, Josh, wore glasses and had very short hair. Josh was involved in student government and on the homecoming court.

Faculty members also remembered that Danny had an older sister, Tamara, who, like Danny, did not enjoy school.

Classmate Gregory Atwood recalls Maldonado hung out with a hip-hop clique in puffy coats, headphones and jeans so baggy they were falling down. They tried to act like 'tough, urban kids,' Atwood said.

'It was kind of a joke to really be like that in Pelham because it's white suburbia,' he said.

Atwood, who is a firefighter in Pelham, said Maldonado was loud and acted out a bit but was also 'very respectful and pleasant.'

'He had his problems, but nothing like this,' said Ron Santagati, a substitute teacher who occasionally had all the Maldonado youths in class. 'He didn't like school.'

Maldonado's parents, Jose and Rena Maldonado, now live about 15 miles north of Pelham, in Londonderry , N.H. Jose Maldonado spoke briefly to a reporter for the Eagle-Tribune newspaper Wednesday while shoveling snow from his walkway. Jose said that Daniel, his wife and the couple's children had moved to Somalia in search of better living conditions for Muslims. Jose said he knew nothing of his son's activities in Africa .

Before moving to Houston in August 2005, Daniel Maldonado lived in several places in New Hampshire and Massachusetts .

He decided to go to Somalia to wage jihad, which authorities say he described during an interview as 'raising the word of Allah, uppermost, by speaking and fighting against all those who are against the Islamic state.' He chose to help Somalia because he said it is the only legitimate Islamic state, authorities say.

'If Americans came, I would fight them, too,' Maldonado allegedly said. He would have 'no problem' with fighting or killing Americans, nor with the Sept. 11 attacks. He also allegedly said he would be willing to become a suicide bomber if he were wounded.

He is accused of training with al-Qaida from September until January and studying bomb making. He faces life imprisonment if convicted on the weapon-of-mass-destruction charge. Training with a terrorist organization carries up to 10 years in prison.

He came to the attention of federal investigators while living in southwest Houston . According to the criminal complaint against him, Maldonado is thought to have moved to Egypt in November 2005, then to Somalia a year later.

Armed with an AK-47 assault rifle, he spent months in southern training camps where al-Qaida fighters were present. In January, Maldonado was trying to flee Somalia when he was captured by government soldiers across the border in Kenya . It was there that he encountered U.S. investigators, including a Houston police officer working on the case as an interrogator.

In Kenya , FBI officials plucked Maldonado and his children. Agents made sure the three children made it to the United States safely.

'FBI agents escorted them from Kenya until the time they were met by both set of grandparents,' Houston FBI spokeswoman Shauna Dunlap said Thursday. The youngest child may have been born last summer while Maldonado and his wife were in Egypt .

She declined to comment about why Maldonado was in Houston because the case is part of an ongoing investigation.

Rodwan Saleh, president of the Islamic Society of Greater Houston, said the enthusiasm of recent converts can be exploited by some extreme groups. And though he did not know Maldonado, Saleh said the man may have been steered to the darker sides of Islam.

Blog and Internet message-board posts indicate Maldonado's eagerness to learn Arabic.

'As new people accept Islam, they need to have someone who truly teaches them the essence of the religion,' Saleh said. 'Someone who is now highly spirited or naive or ignorant, someone can really take advantage of that.'

Saleh said he encourages any Muslims who know Maldonado or his circle of friends to work with authorities.

'It is our duty to be cooperative so this does not happen again,' he said. 'If there is any recruiting through him or someone else, we need to know.'

Source: http://www.cbn.com/CBNnews/105524.aspx

Texas Terror Suspect Grew Up In New Hampshire (back)

February 19, 2007

Texas Terror Suspect Grew Up In New Hampshire And Went To Massachusetts Mosque

A man accused of training with al-Qaida and planning to overthrow the government in Somalia grew up in Pelham , New Hampshire , and converted to Islam at a mosque in Methuen , Massachusetts .

Now 28-year-old Daniel Maldonado is facing federal terrorism charges in Houston , Texas , that could earn him a life sentence in prison.

Maldonado went to Pelham High School before dropping out his junior year. Police remember him as getting into trouble for loud parties and traffic violations, but no serious crimes. His high school principal remembers him as outspoken about politics, but not much of a student.

In his early twenties, Maldonado began attending a mosque in Methuen . Friends there say he became increasingly fundamentalist in his views and left the mosque after the imam asked him to stop criticizing other worshipers.

He went to Houston for a few months, then moved to Egypt with his wife and three children before going to Somalia late last year.

A Houston newspaper says his wife died and his children are now living with grandparents in New England .

Source: http://www.wcsh6.com/news/article.aspx?storyid=52860

Muslim Student Associations Gradually Introduce Sharia Law (back)

February 19, 2007

The Institutional jihad continues and the poor little dhimmis in the non-Muslim world haven’t a clue as to what happening to them, their institutions and their society. All you need is to have an Islamic student association on your campus and you let the camel’s nose of Sharia law into the tent.

Here’s another example of the jihads in their bag of stealth tactics. From the Islamic Threat blog.

All you need is a Muslim Student association on your campus and the demands for a change in ‘non-Islamic’ curriculum starts to appear. This is a lesson that a Canadian university has learned. Muslim Student Associations are implanted in campuses and their aim is to radicalize Muslim students who do not understand Sharia. The larger goal being making Sharia a part of everyday life in the western world. If you look at it in any other way then you are very mistaken.

This from The Gazette, a student campus newspaper in Canada .

A recent decision by Western’s visual arts department has left some Muslim students torn between their love for drawing and painting and their devotion to Islam. After making accommodations for students for several years, the visual arts department added a note to the bottom of nine course descriptions effective Sept. 1, 2005, indicating 'some sessions may involve drawing from the nude (female or male) as a required component of the course.' Though the note was added a year and a half ago, some students are just starting to feel its effects and voice their concerns.

And what are the concerns?

One fourth-year Muslim student said until last year, she and some other students were allowed to negotiate alternatives with their professors, including drawing action figures and break-dancers. Not wanting to cause a fuss, she drew a female nude model in her first-year introductory course, but felt uncomfortable and regretted doing it afterwards. She spoke to Western’s Muslim chaplain, Munir El-Kassem, who advised she should not draw nudes as it isn’t permitted by Islam. ……………… El-Kassem said he was unaware of the policy change and would be prepared to formally challenge it. Hassan Ahmad, president of the Muslim Students’ Association, said he and the MSA would like to follow up the matter so Muslim students won’t have to deal with it in the future.

'The university shouldn’t make this black and white,' Ahmad said. 'They should accept that they have a variety of people from a variety of different backgrounds. It’s not fair to just say, ‘this is how The West does things.’ You have to be tolerant of others’ traditions, because we have important traditions too.'

Now wait a minute. The university should reduce the value of their art degree (which features classes which can’t be passed unless students complete nude drawings) for certain students to accommodate religion? Isn’t that one of the reasons Islamic culture is in such decline? The university degrees in Islamic nations focus primarily on teaching religion than on teaching facts or even preparing them for the 21st century employment challenges.

And now Canada has to give students a less that stellar education to accommodate – or more to the point – implement Sharia law?

This is not multicultural accommodation. What we have here is one of the non-violent forms of jihad – in this case institutional jihad - working towards the establishment of Shariah law in non-Muslim lands and they’re unaware of their willing decent into dhimmitude.

I’m going to continue to drive this concept home and prove that violent jihad, otherwise known as terrorism or the misnamed ‘war on terror’, is but one piece of a comprehensive strategy to install the objective of the terrorists – Sharia law - using the non-violent jihads of media, institution, demographic, cultural, economic, litigation, criminal and thuggery jihad.

Source: http://www.bloggernews.net/14648

Dangerous Knowledge In Academe (back)

February 18, 2007

Remember 'Orientalism,' that landmark book by the late Columbia University professor Edward Said?

The 1978 work put the fear of God into any Western scholar who dared to discuss Islam, Muslims, or Arabs in anything less than superlatives — and it has succeeded beyond Said's wildest dreams.

In a prescient new book, 'Dangerous Knowledge: Orientalism and Its Discontents,' author Robert Irwin notes that 'because of the possible offense to Muslim susceptibilities, Western scholars who specialize in the early history of Islam have to be extremely careful what they say, and some of them have developed subtle forms of double-speak when discussing contentious matters.'

What goes for academia has been happening in a more dramatic fashion in the press, literature, and the creative arts, where death threats, death sentences, and actual murders of writers, artists, and intellectuals have taken a toll.

Bottom line: You can't talk about Islam, not really. Those transgressing are hounded like hunted animals.

The persecuted British-Indian author of the 1988 book 'The Satanic Verses,' Salman Rushdie, is a refugee here in America . Nearly two decades later, he's still living under a death edict issued by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini the year after the book came out.

A more recent refugee is the Dutch-Somali writer Ayaan Hirsi Ali, who is facing death threats of her own in the Netherlands after collaborating on a film about the oppression of women in Islam. One of her collaborators, the Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh, was assassinated in Amsterdam in November 2004; a knife pinned a note to his body that said Ms. Hirsi Ali was next. Islamic history is served up airbrushed in academia, and the result is a public denied knowledge. The reason many in the West are so surprised by the Sunni-Shiite split now tearing apart the Persian Gulf is that few know the history of early Islam, when a bloody succession to the Prophet Muhammad yielded that split 13 centuries ago. The storm around the cartoons of Prophet Muhammad last year was a perfect example of what happens when willful ignorance and self-censorship come together.

To this day, self-censorship about Islam is the norm. The only works that study, analyze, and teach Islam are those by politically correct Arabs, Muslims, or a few 'vetted' Westerner scholars who know where not to go.

Edward Said's obsession was, of course, Palestine and the Jews. But his sweeping condemnation of all scholarship by Westerners as basically racist affected further academic endeavors. It took the tragedy of September 11, 2001, to begin reversing the intimidation. In a review of 'Dangerous Knowledge' in the March issue of the Atlantic Monthly, the writer Christopher Hitchens notes that Western scholars and authors 'have adopted the strategy of taking Islam's claims more or less at face value.' Such undue deference, coupled with a fear of retribution, has led to a situation where 'even a relatively generous treatment of the life of the Prophet Muhammad, such as that composed by [the French Middle East scholar Maxim] Rodinson, is considered too controversial on many campuses in the West,' and puts 'readers or distributors in real physical danger if offered for discussion.'

If you follow the money, you'll discover quickly that the intimidation continues. Oil-rich fundamentalist Arab regimes, including Saudi Arabia , the United Arab Emirates , and Qatar have put big money into spreading their version of Islamic history.

Take two donations to the Council on American-Islamic Relations, an organization that has participated in its share of sinister activities. In June 2006, it was announced that Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal — supposedly a friend of America who built his multibillion-dollar fortune partly through owning Citibank and Apple stocks — will fund a $50 million CAIR project 'to create a better understanding of Islam and Muslims' in America.

Surely the prince, who has scores of American advisers, knows how controversial CAIR is. Yet he is giving it $50 million to interpret Saudi militant Wahhabism, making it 'accessible' in America .

The other multimillion-dollar donation to CAIR came from the Al Maktoum Foundation, the prime money-distribution arm of the ruling family of Dubai , also supposedly a friend of America .

We cannot afford such hypocrisy. The West is engaged in a major confrontation with Islamic terror, in which much of the Islamists' ammunition is coming from the charities, schools, teachings, and treasuries of Saudi Arabia and the Arabian Gulf . There is no need to hold America 's door open to them.

Source: http://www.nysun.com/article/48806

CAIR Supports Terror: A Case Study (back)

February 20, 2007

After his acquittal of certain terrorism charges and a hung verdict on others, Sami al-Arian pleaded guilty to one count of providing financial assistance to a terrorist organization -- Palestinian Islamic Jihad, of which al-Arian was the North American leader. Judge James Moody sentenced al-Arian to the maximum time on the charge and addressed a few choice words to al-Arian:

> You looked your neighbors in the eyes and said you had nothing to do with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. This trial exposed that as a lie....The evidence was clear in this case that you were a leader of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad...

> When Iran , the major funding source of the PIJ, became upset because the PIJ could not account for how it was spending its money, it was to your board of directors that it went to demand changes. Iran wanted its representative to have a say in how its money was spent. To stop that, you leaped into action. You offered to rewrite the bylaws of the organization...

> But when it came to blowing up women and children on buses, did you leap into action then? ... No. You lifted not one finger, made not one phone call. To the contrary, you laughed when you heard about the bombings, what you euphemistically call 'operations.' ...

And yet, still in the face of your own words, you continue to lie to your friends and supporters, claiming to abhor violence and to seek only aid for widows and orphans. Your only connection to widows and orphans is that you create them, even among the Palestinians; and you create them, not by sending your children to blow themselves out of existence. No. You exhort others to send their children... You are indeed a master manipulator.

While incarcerated, al-Arian has been subpoenaed to testify before a federal grand jury regarding the 'charities' that funded his 'think tank' in Tampa , Florida . Al-Arian has refused to testify and has been held in contempt of court. Al-Arian has now gone on a hunger strike in protest.

During his trial Ahmed Bedier of the Council on American-Islamic Relations emerged as al-Arian's spokesman. See Pipes and Chadha's 'CAIR: Islamists fooling the establishment.' On its home page CAIR has posted an item on the Muslim Coalition's call for fasting in solidarity with al-Arian. The full item is here.

CAIR holds itself out as a Muslim civil rights group opposed to terrorism. Yet it operates as a front group that lends its support to the likes of a confessed terrorist such as al-Arian. And it supports Al-Arian in his refusal to testify to his knowledge of facts relevant to the discovery of terrorist infrastructure in the United States . Today's Frontpage has more in 'Lying about al-Arian.'

CAIR's continuing success in fooling the establishment is a remarkable story of CAIR's deceit, of the gullibility of bystanders and of the complicity of knowing outsiders such as Minnesota 's own Rep. Keith Ellison.

Source: http://powerlineblog.com/archives/016835.php

21 February 2007
One conflict sparks another in Nepal

Though the Maoist rebels locked up their arms under UN supervision last week, the Himalayan kingdom is being threatened by fresh revolts.

By Sudeshna Sarkar in Kathmandu for ISN Security Watch (21/02/07)

When a client of Awadhesh Kumar Singh was detained by police earlier this year for a casino dispute, all the lawyer from Nepal had to do was call the police station. Within minutes, his client was released.

However, on 16 January, when Singh was arrested with 23 others for burning a copy of the newly promulgated constitution in capital city Kathmandu, the red carpet treatment was no longer there.

"From evening till midnight, we were handcuffed and made to huddle in a tiny corridor on one of the coldest nights in the year," Singh told ISN Security Watch. "We were freed only when officials from the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights arrived and asked for our release. It was then that I embraced the Madhes cause with both hands."

For 10 years, the tiny kingdom of Nepal, hidden from the world's sight by its two giant neighbors China and India, suffered under an armed insurgency. In February 1996, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), a young but growing party, decided to leave mainstream politics and wage an armed rebellion to overthrow the monarchy for a communist republic.

Over 13,000 people were killed during the civil war and the infrastructure - worth billions of dollars in a country that is among the world's poorest - was destroyed. However, there was relief last year when the Maoists signed a peace accord with the government and agreed to lay down their arms under UN supervision.

Dramatic changes followed. The new seven-party government declared Nepal, once the world's only Hindu kingdom, a secular state and pledged to hold an election by mid-June this year. For the first time, voters will have the right to choose between the 238-year-old monarchy and a democratic republic.

The Maoists, for their part, confined their soldiers to 28 camps and locked up their arms before UN officials to ensure free and fair elections. They also returned to the parliament they once spurned as a "meat market" and now are the third largest party in the house with 73 MPs.

However, there is still no peace in Nepal, though the Maoist insurgency has officially ended. Indeed, the guerrillas' successful revolt has now sparked a series of fresh rebellions that has left the government reeling.

After the Maoist movement, there are now the Madhesi protests. Madhesis are people of Indian origin who settled in the fertile plains in the south, retaining their own culture, attire and language, factors which divide them from the hill community.

"Our community has been exploited and discriminated against for 238 years," said Upendra Yadav, president of the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum, the socio-political organization that began spearheading protests in the plains last month, bringing life to a standstill.

"There are only three percent Madhesis in the judiciary, two percent in the foreign service and none in the army. Though we form about 50 percent of Nepal's population, there are only 38 seats from here in the 205-seat parliament. And there are at least 4 million Madhesis who still have no citizenship," Yadav told ISN Security Watch.

Ironically, the Maoists had promised Madhesis equal rights, opportunities and an autonomous Madhes state in the plains. The rebels also have a separate organization for the community, the Madhes Mukti Morcha.

However, Madhesis are increasingly cynical about the Maoists. "The Madhes Mukti Morcha doesn't work for Madhesis," Yadav said. "It works only for Prachanda [the Maoist chief] and Baburam Bhattarai [Prachanda's deputy]."

About three years ago, a group of Maoists from the Madhes Mukti Morcha broke away and formed a new organization, the Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha. Headed by a senior Maoist leader, Jaikrishna Goit, the new group began following in the footsteps of the Maoists, attacking small police posts to loot firearms and trying to raise money through robberies and abductions.

Due to internal differences, the renegades split. The splinter group is now led by a former Goit lieutenant, Jwala Singh. Since last year, the two factions have spread terror in the plains, with a sitting legislator being killed in the process. The Goit faction issued a statement taking responsibility for the assassination.

Both the groups want the government to form an autonomous Madhes state with the right to self-determination and hand over all administrative and security positions in the plains to Madhesis.

This year, their demand for an autonomous state was taken up by a third group, Yadav's Madhesi Janadhikar Forum.

"When there was a nationwide uprising against King Gyanendra's rule last year, Madhesis joined the protests en masse," said Yadav, explaining what triggered the new protests .

"But when the king was ousted and a new government came to power with the Maoists as allies, they did nothing to redress our woes. When a new constitution was promulgated without righting our wrongs, we realized we have to fight for our own demands."

Though Yadav says his organization believes in non-violent protests, at least 29 people - including three teenagers and a police officer - were killed during its transport and general strikes in January. Numerous cases of arson and looting were reported during the three-week protests.

The unrest also blocked Nepal's major route for convoys bringing essential goods and fuel from India.

The deaths and disturbances raised the concern of the international community, just as the Maoist insurgency had, with the UN, EU and others asking the government to start dialogue with the ethnic protesters.

Finally, the government formed a three-member ministerial team and invited the Madhes groups for talks. While the offer was accepted by the Jwala Singh faction, Goit rejected it and Yadav laid down two preconditions.

"Home Minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula must quit accepting moral responsibility for the deaths and police brutality," Yadav said. "We also demand the arrest of the killers of the first victim."

Both demands lead to the Maoists, who are now at loggerheads with the Madhesis. Sitaula was the architect of the peace pact with the Maoists last year and is regarded as being close to them.

The first victim of the plains protests, a 17-year-old student, was killed in Lahan in Siraha district last month by Maoists, who tried to defy a transport strike called by the Forum. Yadav's demand for the arrest of the teen's killers has left the government squirming since it does not want to antagonize the Maoists.

Though Yadav's group called off the protests for 10 days to give the government time to meet its demands, the deadline ended on 18 February with a fresh call for strikes.

"We wanted to resolve differences through talks," Yadav said. "But the government did nothing to create a conducive atmosphere for talks. We are therefore forced to call fresh transport strikes and blockade of customs offices in the plains from 26 February. If there is still no response from the government, we will call a general strike countrywide from March 6. This time, our protests will be more effective because there are more of us."

Taking their cue from the Madhes protests, other ethnic and indigenous communities have also begun to revolt.

The Nepal Adivasi and Janajati Mahasangh is an umbrella of nearly 60 organizations representing communities that were among Nepal's first settlers and yet remain the most exploited and underprivileged.

They include the Tharus, a community that was the first to dwell in the swampy land in the south, battling diseases to carve out an arable tract. With the invasion of hill communities and migrants from India, the Tharus became slaves in their own land.

Thus arose the infamous system of kamaiyas: bonded labor for generations. Though the government abolished it in 2000, the practice still continues, especially in mid and far western Nepal where grinding poverty is a way of life.

Now the Tharus want an autonomous Tharuwat state.

"When the Maoists started their war, Tharus flocked to them, lured by their promise to create a republic where all would be equal," Rajkumar Lekhi, general secretary of Tharu Kalyankarni Sabha, told ISN Security Watch. The group called a three-day strike in eastern Nepal last month to press its demand.

"About 700 Tharus died during the People's War. But the Maoists just used us, they had no intention of keeping their promise."

Like the Tharus, the Tamangs are also one of the most oppressed communities. A Buddhist people living around Kathmandu valley, until recently, Tamangs were major targets of traffickers selling Nepalese girls into prostitution in India and elsewhere.

"We want an autonomous Tamsaling state," Pasang Dsolma Lama, a 24-year-old Tamang student leader from Nepal Tamang Ghedung, a social organization of Tamangs, said.

"Tamang women and students are among the most disadvantaged. We have realised none of the big parties will address our problems, including the Maoists. We need our own platform for that," Lama said in an interview with ISN Security Watch.

There are still other communities in the umbrella - the Rais, Limbus, Magars - all of whom now want separate autonomous states.

Striking the first serious blow for its cause, the Nepal Adivasi and Janajati Mahasangh called a Kathmandu valley general strike earlier this month, paralyzing the valley.

"We are ready to talk with the government," says Pasang Sherpa, Mahasangh president. "The trouble with the government is, instead of addressing all problems together, it is trying to resolve them piecemeal. So the moment one issue is addressed, fresh ones erupt," Sherpa told ISN Security Watch.

Lekhi has a dire warning for the government.

"We want to resolve our problems peacefully," he said. "But we have been exploited for 4,000 years and our patience is wearing thin. There are some of us who may resort to arms, just as the Maoists did."

Mahansangh is now cooperating with Yadav's group. Both will throw their weight behind the strikes starting Monday. Meanwhile, the Goit faction has called a three-day general strike in the plains scheduled to begin today.

But these are not the only problems Nepal is facing.

Accusing the government of not providing basic amenities in their makeshift camps, Maoist guerrillas have started leaving them in the south to take up residence in the nearby villages, triggering panic among villagers.

In addition, King Gyanendra started a controversy by issuing an unexpected message to the nation this week, defending his power grab two years ago by saying it was done according to people's wishes.

There are now fears that the king may try to seize power yet again or do his best to sabotage the elections. As the government focuses on the king and the Maoists, the Madhes time bomb is ticking away.

Sudeshna Sarkar is ISN Security Watch's senior correspondent in Nepal.

From the ISN blog

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16 February 2007
Nicaragua: Balancing arsenals and aid

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega has a tough choice to make: Destroying a powerful arsenal of SA-7 missiles would appease the US and other donors, but it would also make him appear weak to his anti-American friends.

By Sam Logan for ISN Security Watch (16/02/2007)

Newly elected Nicaraguan President, Daniel Ortega finds himself the new caretaker of a powerful arsenal of Russian SA-7 missiles from the 1980s – an arsenal the US has wanted destroyed for years. Only days after Ortega's 10 January inauguration, the political opposition, echoing the long-time position of the US, began pressuring his administration to destroy the remaining ground-to-air missiles, but Ortega has resisted.

It is a geopolitical issue that underlines the balanced position Ortega must maintain between remaining loyal to his leftist political roots and aware of the international aid his country needs from Washington.

As the president of one of the region's poorest countries he must placate international donors in order to keep the Nicaraguan economy afloat. As the leader of his country's Sandinista party, he has an established record as an enemy of the US, an internationally known status that gives him instant credit with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, among others.

What Ortega eventually decides to do with the missiles could indicate the international partners he is likely to embrace. Destroying the missiles would appease Washington, but it would make Ortega appear weak to his anti-American friends.
MANPADS

Man Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS) have been called the terrorists' delight. Their alleged use by the Iraqi insurgency against US helicopters has been a cause for concern. Stinger missiles the CIA sold to the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan during the Russian occupation there in the 1980s leveled the playing field between rebels on the ground and the deadly Russian helicopters. During roughly the same time, the Russians provided some 2,000 SA-7 MANPADS to the Sandinista government, led by Ortega, for use in combating the US-backed insurgency determined to stop the spread of communism in Nicaragua and Central America.

One thousand of these missiles have been destroyed but just as many remain. Stockpile controls and security are a concern. The potential weakness of Nicaragua's weapons stockpile control system was revealed in 2001 when an arms broker in Guatemala persuaded the Nicaraguan army to sell him 3,000 AK-47 rifles and 2.5 million rounds of ammunition. These weapons were eventually delivered to Colombia's paramilitary forces.

The Nicaraguan army guards the Russian missiles still in its arsenal. US leaders are worried that some of these missiles could be illegally transferred to terrorists or others operating in the region who may use them to shoot down international commercial flights.

In 2003, US President George W Bush met with then-Nicaraguan president Enrique Bolanos and urged him to destroy the missiles. The Nicaraguan Congress, led at the time by Ortega and his allies, trumpeted the Nicaraguan military's demand for a reciprocal payment of US$80 million for missile destruction. Bolanos pushed ahead, pledging to destroy all of the missiles without compensation, but Ortega won out.

The Nicaraguan Congress passed the Weapons Control Law, which stipulated that the president must have prior approval of the legislature before ordering the military to destroy weapons. Bolanos vetoed the law, but the Congress voted to override his veto. Since then, the missiles have remained untouched.
Controversy over planes

Bolanos' failed efforts to destroy the missiles prompted Washington to temporarily suspend military aid to Nicaragua in July 2005. While that aid was restored after the Nicaraguan military assured Washington that the missiles were under an adequately secure control regime, the US still seeks to destroy the missiles.

A bill that proposes to destroy over half of the remaining missiles has languished in the Nicaraguan Congress since Ortega's inauguration.

Ortega has called the bill "absurd and inconceivable." He claims the missiles are needed for Nicaragua's air defense, as it does not have an air force and neighboring Honduras has recently received an order of airplanes from the US.

The planes are limited to survey, observation and anti-drug missions, according to the US Southern Command. "The eight Storm Rally airplanes are used for search and rescue missions and to detect and discourage drug trafficking," Lt Coronel Anibal Mulero, a spokesman for US South Com, told ISN Security Watch.

Mulero explained that the aircraft were not attack planes, information corroborated by data provided by Prestige Aircraft Company LLC, a manufacturer of Storm Rally aircraft built for civilian use.

The pressure may be less on Ortega and more on ensuring that the missiles are controlled, according to Matt Schroeder, manager of the arms sales monitoring project with The Federation of American Scientists and co-author of the book "The Small Arms Trade."

"The United States' concern about these missiles has little to do with Ortega," Schroeder told ISN Security Watch. "Attempts to help Nicaragua dispose of them date back at least to 2003, when [the US] provided the Bolanos government with funding for missile destruction and stockpile security upgrades."
The real concern is preventing terrorists from accessing the missiles. If destroyed, US leaders can rest assured the Nicaraguan missiles will never fall into terrorists’ hands.
Renewed pressure

Renewed pressure to destroy the missiles may not be on Ortega to take action, but Ortega's position makes it difficult for observers to separate his geopolitical leanings from a long-held US request to destroy the MANPADS.

Standing up to the US has never been easier. Ortega knows he can count on Chavez for more support than the US.

The Venezuelan daily El Universal reported on 22 January that soldiers with the Venezuelan military would help build a 480 kilometer road connecting the east and west coasts of Nicaragua. The project has an estimated cost of US$350 million, financed as a donation by the Venezuelan government.

Nicaragua has agreed to enter Chavez's anti-American trade block called ALBA, the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas. The Central American country will become a certified member of Chavez's anti-American team. Doctors from Cuba are already in Nicaragua, assisting the state with medical services for the poorest Nicaraguans.

Iran will soon open an embassy in Managua. Ahmadinejad has promised investment in roads, dams, the fishing industry and ports, according to the Associated Press. Investments in Nicaragua's struggling energy sector may soon follow. Already, Chavez has pledged to construct a number of new energy plants.

Russia, too, has recently sent emissaries to Nicaragua.

In a region where anti-Americanism can win leaders support from powerful countries worldwide, snubbing Washington pays off. Ortega, however, has not publicly out lashed against Bush or Washington in general. He has chosen to remain firmly against the SA-7 destruction, which amounts to a non-issue for his constituents. More importantly, it is an outward sign of strength in the face of a very limited amount of pressure from Washington.

For now, this is a balance Ortega appears able to walk. But as he grows closer to Iran, Russia and Venezuela, pressure from Washington may extend beyond the destruction of Cold War-era missiles. It is an important issue, but when Washington begins to talk about shutting down Nicaragua’s access to US markets, Ortega may be forced to capitulate. Otherwise, regional observers may watch as history repeats itself and Ortega once again becomes an adversary.

Sam Logan is an investigative journalist who has reported on security, energy, politics, economics, organized crime, terrorism and black markets in Latin America since 1999. He is a senior writer for ISN Security Watch.

From the ISN Blog

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20 February 2007
Terror fails to derail peace train

Suitcase bombs explode on a politically symbolic train from India to Pakistan, killing at least 68 people in a clear attempt to derail peace - but officials from both sides are rising to the occasion in an unprecedented show of maturity.

Commentary by Jen Alic for ISN Security Watch (20/02/07)

The death of 68 people, many presumed by preliminary investigations to have been Pakistani, on a "peace train" en route from Delhi in India to Lahore in Pakistan just may spur further cooperation, though the sacrifice is a tragic one.

The explosion of suitcase bombs believed to have been planted by two men who boarded the Samjuhauta Express train in New Delhi and jumped off 15 minutes before the blasts was a clear attempt to derail the India-Pakistan peace process, which has seen a revival of sorts in recent months.

But those responsible for this act of terrorism perhaps were not counting on the show of maturity and the seemingly new sense of urgency the attack prompted among officials from both sides.

Nuclear rivals India and Pakistan have fought two bloody wars over Kashmir. The peace process experienced a revival of sorts in December when Musharraf made a statement on Indian television, announcing that Islamabad was willing to give up its claim to Kashmir to work toward a four-point peace plan. The statement was viewed by many, including this author, as a potentially major historic breakthrough.

For his part, the Indian prime minister initiated the idea of a joint mechanism and a "soft border" when he launched the Amritsar-Nankana Sahib bus service in March - a bus service that allows divided Kashmir families and friends to cross the Line of Control (LoC) separating the Indian- and Pakistani-controlled parts of Kashmir. Both sides had already talked about making the LoC irrelevant in the name of improving the standard of living through the free flow of trade and people in Kashmir.

Those wishing to derail peace also seemed to think the process was moving forward, and they could not have chosen a more important symbolic target than the Samjuhauta Express train - one of the most visible symbols of the peace process that focuses on reuniting people.

But perhaps it was an ill-conceived plan. Perhaps it was the wrong target.

It was only just over three years ago that the train resumed its Delhi-Lahore route, and it is an important one for families who long, more than anything else, to be reunited.

In Islamabad, Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf said in a statement: "We will not allow elements which want to sabotage the ongoing peace process [to] succeed in their nefarious designs." He urged both sides to "move forward undeterred in the quest for dispute resolution and lasting peace in the region."

New Delhi responded quickly in a mature manner, taking very significant measures to ensure cooperation rather than the traditional style of confrontation. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh spoke to his Pakistan counterpart Shaukat Aziz, promising to do "everything possible to ensure that its perpetrators are punished."

New Delhi moved to speed up the visa process for Pakistani officials and relatives of the victims to help investigate the incident, help the injured and identify the dead, and both sides have praised the other's commitment to ensuring that the attack does not succeed in derailing peace. In short, this time the passion is being reserved for the people involved, rather than the politics.

The blast took place a day before Pakistani Foreign Minister Khursheed Kasuri was expected to arrive in the Indian capital for previously scheduled talks. Kasuri did not delay his trip and leaders of both sides pressed ahead with peace talks on Monday, showing increased resolve.

Of course, the opposition BJP in India has come out on the side of derailing peace itself, accusing the government of being "soft" on terrorism and saying there was no point in continuing peace talks in the wake of the blasts.

But they are not likely to succeed this time. Peace has gained momentum, and the terrorist attack may backfire on the perpetrators and provide a catalyst for more urgent change.

The people - those for whom repairing Indo-Pak relations would mean being reunited with their families - will not be thwarted. In fact, early on Tuesday morning, only a day after the deadly blasts, the Delhi-Lahore bus departed for Pakistan with 46 determined passengers on board.

The tone has been set, and if India and Pakistan continue to show increased maturity and determination, peace will prevail.

Jen Alic is the editor in chief of ISN Security Watch.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author only, not the International Relations and Security Network (ISN).

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20 February 2007
Tax collector to head Russia's defense

Military and political circles are in a state of shock after Putin's appointment of a former furniture salesman and tax collector to the post of defense minister, in an apparent bid to discipline procurement.

Commentary by Simon Saradzhyan in Moscow for ISN Security Watch (20/02/07)

The appointment of a former furniture store manager and tax collector to head the Russian Defense Ministry may help to bring the military's financial books in order, but will hardly lead to a qualitative improvement in the overall preparedness of the underpaid conscript-based armed forces.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to appoint Federal Tax Service chief Anatoly Serdyukov as defense minister in charge of Russia's one million-strong strong war machine is likely meant to install some sort of budgetary order on the ministry.

As of Friday, the Defense Ministry had no official comment on Serdyukov's appointment, though it did post his biography and a short account of the Thursday meeting of the agency's top brass where Putin announced the reshuffle, but there are questions about how much of a leading role a tax collector could play in military planning.

And indeed, when presenting Serdyukov, the commander-in-chief told the star-studded generals he hoped the General Staff of the Armed Forces, which is headed by career officer Colonel General Yuri Baluevsky, would play a leading role in military planning. Putin said he had already discussed how the General Staff would have greater power, and expressed his hope that the new minister would "pay serious attention to the development, to the financial component."

Putin has repeatedly asked the Defense Ministry to account for wastefulness in arms spending. During his six-year tenure, Serdyukov's predecessor, Sergei Ivanov, acknowledged that there was a problem with the cost efficiency of procurement. For the first time in the post-Soviet period, the government's overall spending on arms this year exceeded Russia's weapons exports in 2005.

"In theory, his appointment may indeed help to streamline the finances," Konstantin Makienko, deputy director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST), told ISN Security Watch. CAST and other independent think tanks have repeatedly highlighted the inefficiency of the Defense Ministry's procurement system.

Russia's defense budget has been growing steadily thanks to economic growth fuelled by high oil prices and a consumer boom. As a result of the surge in federal budget revenues, the Defense Ministry budget quadrupled from 214 billion rubles (US$8.2 billion) in 2001 to 821 billion (US$31.3 billion) this year. Both CAST and other experts have repeatedly noted that the Russian military received as much money for procurement as foreign customers spent on Russian-made arms. However, the numbers do not add up: the Russian military procures significantly fewer conventional arms than get exported out of Russia.

Six years ago, Putin attempted to bring greater order into the military's finances by firing a career general from the ministry's budget department and appointing a career Finance Ministry expert to the post. To date, Lyubov Kudelina continues to occupy this post.

Given Serdyukov's background, "his appointment has caused nothing, but astonishment," Makienko told ISN Security Watch.

All of post-communist Russia's defense ministers had been career officers. Even Serdyukov's predecessor and newly promoted first deputy prime minister Ivanov had served for decades as foreign intelligence officers before retiring as lieutenant generals.

Makienko said the underpaid conscription-based armed forces required fundamental reforms to become a "fully professional, well-paid and well motivated" war machine, and expressed strong doubts that the new minister could initiate or implement such reforms. "In my opinion, Ivanov did little to improve the combat readiness and I don't think Serdyukov can do much more," he said.

Alexander Golts, a retired military officer and columnist for the online Yezhenedelny Zhurnal was more blunt. "The man […] appointed to the post of defense minister spent more time in his career working in a furniture store than doing anything else and doesn't understand one darn thing [about] military affairs," Goltz wrote in a Friday commentary titled "Anyone Can Become A Minister Here."

The news of the appointment created an uproar among members of political and military forums, many of whom expressed disbelief.

"To put it mildly, he won't be able to pull of a revolution in the military affairs," one retired senior air force officer told ISN Security Watch on condition of anonymity.

Another retired officer - who also asked not to be named - concurred, noting that the "bright side" of the appointment was that the General Staff and its head Baluevsky could play a stronger role in military planning since Serdyukov lacked both the charisma and political weight of his predecessor Ivanov, Putin's confidant who is tipped to run for president in 2008.

Simon Saradzhyan is a veteran security and defense writer based in Moscow. He is a co-founder of the Eurasian Security Studies Center in Moscow.

Related articles from the ISN Publishing House

Defense Reform and the Russian Navy

Defence of the Realm: The 'New' Russian Patriotism on Screen

To Fear or to Respect? Two Approaches to Military Reform in Russia

Moscow Defense Brief 2/2006

A New Russian Defense Doctrine?

From the ISN blog

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Monday, 19 February 2007
AL QAEDA REDUX

In leaks to reporters, intelligence officers voiced concern that al Qaeda's leadership has reconstituted in Pakistan's Waziristan tribal areas. This area is now considered a temporary autonomous zone (TAZ) due to a truce that Pakistan signed with local leaders (and by extension the Taliban) last year (see "Our Man in Pakistan" for more on the details).

The initial destruction of al Qaeda's hierarchical organization in Afghanistan drastically reduced the ability of the organization to design, develop, and launch global attacks. In effect, it was reduced to media messaging to catalyze organic growth of groups that would launch attacks locally. This has been relatively successful (London / Madrid / Egypt / Thailand / Pakistan / Saudi Arabia and, of course, Iraq), but it has damaged the groups ability to mount a spectacular global attack that gained it so much initial success -- in that it both incented US overreaction in Iraq and catapulted their organization into a global setting.

Here is what this means

The development of the TAZ in Waziristan and the reconstitution of a semblance of al Qaeda's previous organization means that larger attacks can and will be launched. These attacks will come in two forms, based on an analysis of al Qaeda's evolving strategy. The first type, reflects the recognition by al Qaeda that systems disruption has been extremely effective in Iraq. These attacks will likely be against the global oil system -- although rather than take the many small attacks approach used so successfully over the last three years, it will probably be focused on large events like the attempt on Abqaiq in early 2006. The second type might be another symbolic attack against the US like 9/11. With all indications that the US is in withdrawal, a new attack is likely needed to propel the US back into aggressive action (see "Al Qaeda's Grand Strategy: Superpower Baiting" for more on why).

See: "Al Qaeda Chiefs Are Seen to Regain Power" Mark Mazzetti and David Rohde, The New York Times, February 18. 2007 for the original leaked information.
PS>Extra credit: what happens when the "doughnut" network described in this exploration of al Qaeda's structure refills its "hole."

Posted by John Robb on Monday, 19 February 2007

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Thursday, 15 February 2007
TERRORIST NETWORKS: Advanced Topics
Network_diagrams The media term "amorphous terrorist network" doesn't provide much for us to work with. That changes when you apply advanced network theory to the topic. A recent paper by the student Mitch Stripling called, "Embodying Terror Networks: How Direction Creates Structure" (PDF) is a great example of this. The paper starts with a strongly written review of how network theory has been applied to this topic. This review starts with the early work by Arquilla and Ronfeldt (Networks and Netwars) and their simplistic chain, star, and all-channel network topographies and continues to the highly connected hubs (which embodies both the vulnerability and resilience of this type of network topology) and power-law distributions of scale-free networks (for more, read the brief: "Scale-Free (Terror) Networks" from May 2004).

Directed Scale-Free Networks
Directed_newtorks1

The real insight in Mitch's paper comes from the realization that terrorist networks aren't merely generic scale-free networks, but more likely an important subset: directional scale-free networks. Scale-free networks are typically depicted by a set of nodes that are symmetrically connected (I link to you, you link to me). The dynamic flows that travel through those networks, whether they be information/fluids/electricity/contagion, can travel in both directions across symmetric links. However, that doesn't actually happen in many real world networks. In these networks, links have direction (I link to a major hub, and it doesn't link back to me). Directional networks, in contrast, have links that are asymmetric and offer only unidirectional flows. A good visualization of this can be seen in Albert-Laszlo Barabasi's diagram (inset, from "Linked"). It depicts the directional flow of connections (from the left to the right):

* a central core of highly connected (via bidirectional links) nodes,
* an IN continent (links in), an OUT continent (links out),
* and various other structures (a Tube of connections between IN/OUT continents, Tendrils that feed into each continent, and islands that are clusters of affiliated but unconnected nodes).

AlQaeda.net
When you apply the directional scale-free network model to al Qaeda, you see a fairly good fit, particularly when you assume that the al Qaeda of today is more of a movement than a cohesive organization (Mitch provides some historical analysis to back this up). Here's how it works. Al Qaeda's flow starts in connections from the feeder networks within the IN continent that instill a common animating narrative (Madrasahs, etc.). This common narrative drives social clusters to seek connections with the central core (bin Laden and associates) which will eventually transition them to become operational assets (terrorist cells) in the OUT continent. Here's the likely path of al Qaeda's evolution, some of which has already been seen, given this 'movement' model:

* al Qaeda's leadership will increasingly ask groups to act on their own, without seeking direct connections to the central leadership. This will be accomplished through the production of global media messages that contain targeting recommendation (which is essentially a low bandwidth command link). If this works, recruits within the IN continent can transition (FLOW) quickly to the OUT continent without ever directly connecting to the central core.
* IF this transition can be made, al Qaeda's central leadership would become relatively immune to disruption. Nearly all of the central core could be knocked out without damaging its ability to message those groups in the operational OUT continent. In the words of Valdis Krebs, al Qaeda could look very much like a doughnut and still be able to operate.
* Finally, local groups that enjoy a level of operational success within the OUT continent can and will go international autonomously, in that they will create/distribute media messaging and operationally manage attacks on a global scale. Zarqawi's efforts and the recent plea by al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia for attacks on global oil infrastructure are good examples of this. Within the network model, these groups would be seen as clusters on the periphery that can catalyze the operation of the entire network (by acting not just as feeders and operators, but as mirrors of the central core).

Posted by John Robb on Thursday, 15 February 2007 at 01:53 PM |

IDF worried Hamas may have Sagger anti-tank missiles

By Amos Harel Wed., February 21, 2007
www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/828424.html

There are grave concerns among the defense establishment about the possibility that Hamas' military wing in the Gaza Strip is now in possession of Sagger anti-tank missiles. Recently, Hamas and other Palestinian
paramilitary groups have stepped up their efforts to acquire more advanced anti-tank weaponry. This stems, in part, from the relative success of Hezbollah guerrillas armed with anti-tank missiles against infantry and
armored units of the Israel Defense Forces during last summer's second Lebanon war.

The IDF fears Hamas has succeeded in its efforts to smuggle Sagger-type missiles from Sinai to the Gaza Strip. It appears that the number of missiles is especially large. However, the mere fact that such a weapon may be in Hamas' hands will affect the way IDF vehicles operate in the Gaza Strip, if it is decided to embark on an extensive offensive operation.

In recent years there have been many attempts by militant organizations to smuggle anti-tank missiles into the Gaza Strip. The Palestinians managed to successfully upgrade the RPGs in their possession from locally produced types to military grade equipment. However, the Sagger is a significant advance that poses a serious threat to the IDF - not only to armored jeeps, but also to armored personnel carriers (APCs), and in some instances, also to tanks.

During the past year there have been attempts to smuggle even more advanced anti-tank missiles, like the Konkurs and the Kornet, which Hezbollah has in its arsenal, into the Gaza Strip. It is not known whether the smugglers were successful. In May 2004, more than a year prior to the disengagement, Palestinians succeeded in destroying an APC with RPGs on the Philadelphi Route in Rafah, killing the five crewmen.

The Sagger AT-3 (a NATO designation), is a Soviet-made anti-tank missile, first used in the 1960s. The missile can hit a target at distances between 500 meters and three kilometers, and penetrate 400mm of armor. It is a relatively slow missile, whose rate of flight does not exceed 120 meters per second, and it requires about 25 seconds from the time it is launched until its impact.

During the Yom Kippur War the IDF lost many tanks to trained Egyptian crews armed with Sagger missiles. Since then, the armored corps has developed tactical maneuvering to counter the threat, mostly based on the missile's relatively slow flight and on the ability of crews to see the incoming missile.

Security sources said that even if the Sagger is not as advanced as the Kornet, it represents an increase in the potential threat to the IDF, if indeed such anti-tank missiles have made it into Hamas' hands.

Since the war in Lebanon, the Palestinians are busy learning the lessons of the conflict and they are using data and experts from Hezbollah.

In addition to the procurement of anti-tank missiles, the militant groups are making efforts to increase the range of their locally produced rockets. Current estimates hold that some Qassam rockets already have a range of 16 kilometers.

There are also extensive defensive preparations underway to repulse a possible IDF incursion into the Gaza Strip, including the construction of bunkers and tunnels.

The anti-tank missiles are a significant part of these defensive preparations because they are meant to deter the use of armored vehicles in the crowded urban confines of the Gaza Strip.

The Palestinians did take note of the fact that following the attack against the APC in the Philadelphi Route in 2004 and the destruction of another APC (with a six-man crew) the day before using an explosive device, the IDF seriously limited its offensive operations in the Gaza Strip.

TAM: World Chechnya Day – A tribute to resilience (E.Rahman)

The American Muslim

World Chechnya Day – A tribute to resilience

Emdad Rahman

Posted Feb 21, 2007

The celebration of World Chechnya Day on Friday 23rd February is
intended to commemorate the dignity and resilience of a people who,
against all odds, refused to be erased from existence.

Joseph Stalin, On 23 February 1944 ordered the deportation of the
entire
Chechen and Ingush population to Central Asia. More than half of the
500,000 people who were forcibly transported died in transit or in
massacres committed by Soviet troops. Those who survived the journey
were left facing starvation and disease in the harsh winters of Siberia
and Central Asia .

Within days an entire people had been erased from the land of their
ancestors. Overnight Chechnya and Ingushetia were emptied of their
native inhabitants, and every reference to Chechnya was removed from
official maps, records and encyclopedias.

On 26 February 2004, sixty years after the atrocity, the European
Parliament passed a motion that recognized this tragedy as Genocide.
Actress and campaigner Vanessa Redgrave when speaking about this sad
episode in history has said; “The Kremlin’s Genocide of Chechen people
has been accepted by European leaders to the shame of us all.”

On the afternoon of Friday 23rd February 2007, the Save Chechnya
Campaign at the Yalta memorial at Cromwell Gardens, South Kensington,
is
joining with individuals and organizations around the world to
commemorate World Chechnya Day to commemorate the victims of Stalin’s
deportation of the Chechen people in 1944. In 2004, the European
Parliament passed a motion recognizing the atrocity as Genocide.

With regards to Friday’s event the Save Chechnia Campaign Director
Saida
Sheriff said: “World Chechnya Day commemorates one of the untold
stories
of the Second World War; the complete annihilation of the Chechen
people.”

Seven years prior to the launch of a second Russian military campaign
in
Chechnya, it is still too dangerous for journalists to travel to this
region, where numerous “anti-terrorist operations” are being carried
out.

Chechnya continues to be plagued by abductions, torture, killings and
other violations. Tatiana Lokshina, head of Demos, a Moscow-based human
rights think tank became the focus of worldwide media attention when
she
went on record to say that the people of Chechnya continue to be
victims
of torture, killings and abductions.(
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2007/01/30/016.html ). According
to Lokshina he statistics were obtained by analyzing data provided by
several human rights groups operating in Chechnya Demos pointed out in
a
thirteen page report that anything between Some 3,000 to 5,000 people
have been victims of abduction since the the beginning of the region’s
second post-Soviet war in 1999, mostly by Russian forces or local
allies. Some 3,000 to 5,000 people have been abducted since the start
of
the region’s second post-Soviet war in 1999, mostly by federal forces
or
their local allies, Demos said in the 13-page report. Most abductions
took place in Chechnya, but some in neighboring provinces such as
Ingushetia.

Vadim Rechkalov, a frequent visitor to Chechnya, reports
(http://www.optimistmag.org/gh/0000/index.php ) that Grozny remains a
dangerous city of ruins. Reconstruction has taken place on a very
limited scale and the sewerage system has still not been restored.
However, residents are now able to buy water from trucks at 50 80
kopecks a bucket.

According to Holly Carter, Europe and Central Asia director at Human
Rights Watch, “If you are detained in Chechnya, you face a real and
immediate risk of torture. And there is little chance that your
torturer
will be held accountable.” (
http://hrw.org/english/docs/2006/11/13/russia14557.htm ).

In research missions conducted in April and September of 2006, Human
Rights Watch, an independent, non-governmental organisation, supported
by contributions from private individuals and foundations worldwide,
documented 82 cases in which Kadyrov’s forces detained and tortured
people, most of them in unlawful detention facilities. Researchers also
obtained detailed descriptions of at least 10 such facilities, most of
which are private houses owned or used by regional commanders loyal to
the late Akhmad Kadyrov. Things look even bleaker with the elevation of
Ramzan Kadyrov, (the son of the former President) from acting prime
Minister to President of the war ravaged Russian republic. Kadyrov is
believed to have a shocking human rights record. (
http://freesheeshan.blogspot.com/2007/02/chechen-tyrant-and-his-antics.html
)

In an unprecedented shake-up, Putin has also promoted Sergei Ivanov to
the post of first deputy Prime Minister. Ivanov has claimed that what
Moscow’s efforts against the resistance in Chechnya “international
terrorism,” not “local terrorism,” because “local terrorism now, in the
global world, simply doesn’t exist.”

After relieving Ivanov of his duties as defence minister, Putin has
appointed in his place Anatoly Serdyukov, the Federal Tax Service chief
who drew up the multibillion-dollar tax bills against Yukos that
ultimately led to the oil giant’s demise.

World Chechnya Day is an event to raise awareness and understanding of
the Chechen genocide as an issue of importance to humanity, to ensure
that the horrendous crimes, racism and victimisation that were
committed
during the Chechen genocide will never be forgotten or repeated, in
Europe or elsewhere in the world. Let us all respect the victims of
Stalin’s deportations and recognise the suffering and genocide of the
people of Chechnia as a human catastrophe of historic significance.
This
is also an opportunity to reflect on contemporary atrocities all around
the world that raise similar issues and also an avenue to educating
subsequent generations about the genocide and the continued relevance
of
the lessons that can be learnt from it.

http://www.worldchechnyaday.org

This article was first published on Islam Online:
http://www.islamonline.net

http://tinyurl.com/2p5gz6

The Era of Individual Jihad: Al Qaeda's Plan for the Future

An Egyptian man attacks an El Al airline counter at Los Angeles
International Airport on July 4, 2002, killing three. An off-duty pilot
takes control of an EgyptAir flight out of JFK airport in 1999, sending
into a nosedive into the Atlantic, killing all aboard. A graduate
student drives his SUV into a crowd of students on a busy college
campus. Six people were wounded, and one killed by a Pakistani-American
in a shooting attack on the Seattle Jewish Federation. A young man
attacks a shopping mall in Salt Lake City on Valentine's Day, killing
five. Another young Muslim convert was arrested on charges that he
planned a Christmas shopping season attack on a Chicago area mall.

Were these incidents terrorism? In each of these incidents, the
FBI at least initially said "no" because there were no clear ties to
any organized terror groups.

All of these alleged perpetrators re Muslim. Were these really
radical Islamic terror attacks?

We can't be 100% certain that they were or weren't.

Like any other group in society, there are criminals who claim to
adhere to the Muslim faith.

But what complicates the assessment is the sheer volume of
jihadist writings that have emerged over the past decade trumpeting the
role of the individual terrorist, which insist that "personal jihad" in
one's home country is something that is mandated of all Muslims.

These ideas and doctrines are readily found on the internet,
and have become more popular. They are not only being discussed on
Arabic language websites like Ekhlaas, but are also discussed on
English language social networking sites like MySpace.com, Orkut, and
MSN Spaces.

Al Qaeda ideologues such as Abu Mus'ab al Suri have advocated
been strong advocates for individual jihad. In his 1604-page book
Da'wat al-Moqawma al-Islamiyah al-Alamayah, or Call to Global Islamic
Resistance, al Suri claims that the era of the "secret organization"
such as the Muslim brotherhood is over. He maintains that the
hierarchical nature of such groups makes them especially vulnerable to
infiltration and exposure by security agents.

He acknowledges the role of "Open Fronts" for jihad in place
like Chechnya are Afghanistan, but he finds that this option is not
available for most individuals.

Instead, he says that the only opportunity for jihad for most
people is individual jihad in one's own country. In fact, al Suri
maintains that there is a religious imperative for Muslims to do so,
citing the Qu'ran. Claiming that Ayat 60 of Surat al-Anfal (The Spoils
of War) provides justification for going to war as part of jihad:

Against them make ready your strength to the utmost of your power,
including steeds of war, to strike terror into (the hearts of) the
enemies, of Allah and your enemies, and others besides, whom ye may not
know, but whom Allah doth know. Whatever ye shall spend in the cause of
Allah, shall be repaid unto you, and ye shall not be treated unjustly.

He cites Ayat 46 of Surat al-Tawbah (Repentence) expressing his low
regard of those who fail to take up arms in jihad

If they had intended to come out, they would certainly have made
some preparation therefor; but Allah was averse to their being sent
forth; so He made them lag behind, and they were told, "Sit ye among
those who sit (inactive)."

Al Suri stresses that individual jihad should be carried out by
individuals or small groups who cannot be linked back to any central
organization. Instead, the "base" should serve as a source of
inspiration and motivation, rather than act as a chain of command.

He suggests the role of a "middle-man", a "cell organizer"
whose role is to help set up individuals or small groups, providing
seed funding, but who then leaves the area, providing no discernable
links such as money transfers or paper trails.

In other words, these individuals and small groups are supposed
to appear for all intents and purposes to self-contained and
self-motivated.

Al Suri isn't the only Al Qaeda ideologue to promote this idea.
Al Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula launched an on-line training
magazine, providing a how-to guide for the individual jihadist. Books
such as the Mujahideen's Poisons Manual (in English, French, and
Arabic) provide details on how to create biological weapons such as
botulinum toxin and ricin. Instructional videos readily available on
the internet show in the smallest detail how to brew explosives using
readily available household chemicals, and even how to make simple
chemical gas dispersal devices and explosive vests.

There's little doubt that the infrastructure is in place for the
individual jihadist.

Do the incidents outlined above, along with dozens of others, fit the
definition of "individual jihad"?

That's a question for law enforcement.

By definition, that's not going to be an easy question to
answer, because by definition, the rogue jihadist is delinked from any
central organization. There may be little or no evidence delineating
the ideological or political convictions of the individual jihadist. At
most, investigators may find some material downloaded from the internet
as clues. But it's very unlikely that paper trails such as money
transfers from Al Qaeda Inc, or plane tickets to Pakistan for training
will be found.

Instead, for all intents and purposes the rogue jihadists will
look like he's working alone, perhaps inspired and trained through the
internet, but working on his own.

The incidents above certainly fit this description.

Are they the work of rogue jihadists, or are they simply criminal acts,
perpetrated by individuals acting for unknown reasons?

We may never know. In many cases, the truth dies with the attacker.

But it is almost certain that the era of the roque individual
jihadist has arrived. And even if the attacks listed above are not the
work of men on a personal jihad, then it is inevitable that such
attacks are coming.

The questions are when and where.

For more translations and news on terrorism, visit
http://www.lauramansfield.com

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