World Terrorism: News, History and Research Of A Changing World #6 Disinformation, Inc.

VEVAK learned its methodology from the Soviet KGB and many of the Islamist revolutionaries who supported Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini actually studied at Moscow's Patrice Lumumba Friendship University, the Oxford of terrorism. Documented Iranian alumni include the current Supreme Leader (the faqih) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, under whose Velayat-e Faqih (Rule of the Islamic Jurisprudent) apparatus it has traditionally operated. Its current head is Cabinet Minister Hojatoleslam Gholam-Hussein Mohseni-Ezhei, a graduate of Qom's Haqqani School, noted for its extremist position advocating violence against enemies and strict clerical control of society and government. The Ministry is very well funded and its charge, like that of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (the Pasdaran) is to guard the revolutionary Islamic Iranian regime at all costs and under all contingencies.

From the KGB playbook, VEVAK learned the art of disinformation. It's not so difficult to learn: tell the truth 80% of the time and lie 20%. Depending on how well a VEVAK agent wants to cover his/her tracks, the ratio may go up to 90/10, but it never drops below the 80/20 mark as such would risk suspicion and possible detection. The regime in Teheran has gone to great lengths to place its agents in locations around the world. Many of these operatives have been educated in the West, including the U.K. and the United States. Iranian government agencies such as embassies, consulates, Islamic cultural centers, and airline offices regularly provide cover for the work of VEVAK agents who dress well and are clean shaven, and move comfortably within our society. In this country, because of the severance of diplomatic relations, the principal site of VEVAK activities begins at the offices of Iran's Permanent Mission to the UN in New York.

Teheran has worked diligently to place its operatives in important think tanks and government agencies in the West. Some of its personnel have been recruited while in prison through torture or more often through bribery, or a combination of both. Others are Islamist revolutionaries that have been set up to look like dissidents - often having been arrested and imprisoned, but released for “medical reasons”. The clue to detecting the fake “dissident” is to read carefully what he/she writes, and to ask why this vocal “dissident” was released from prison when other real dissidents have not been released, indeed have been grievously tortured and executed. Other agents have been placed in this country for over twenty-five years to slowly go through the system and rise to positions of academic prominence due to their knowledge of Farsi and Shia Islam or Islamist fundamentalism.

One of the usual tactics of VEVAK is to co-opt academia to its purposes. Using various forms of bribery, academics are bought to defend the Islamic Republic or slander its enemies. Another method is to assign bright students to train for academic posts as specialists in Iranian or Middle East affairs. Once established, such individuals are often consulted by our government as it tries to get a better idea of how it should deal with Iran. These academics then are in a position to skew the information, suggesting the utility of extended dialogue and negotiation, or the danger and futility of confronting a strong Iran or its proxies such as Hizballah (Hezbollah). These academics serve to shield the regime from an aggressive American or Western policy, and thereby buy more time for the regime to attain its goals, especially in regards to its nuclear weaponry and missile programs.

MOIS likes to use the media, especially electronic media, to its advantage. One of VEVAK's favorite tricks is setting up web sites that look like they are opposition sites but which are actually controlled by the regime. These sites often will be multilingual, including Farsi, German, Arabic French, and English. Some are crafted carefully and are very subtle in how they skew their information (e.g., Iran-Interlink, set up and run by Massoud Khodabandeh and his wife Ann Singleton from Leeds, England); others are less subtle, simply providing the regime's point of view on facts and events in the news (e.g., www.mujahedeen.com or www.mojahedin.ws). This latter group is aimed at the more gullible in our open society and unfortunately such a market exists. However, if one begins to do one's homework, asking careful questions, the material on these fake sites generally does not add up.

Let's examine a few examples of VEVAK's work in the United States. In late October, 2005, VEVAK sent three of its agents to Washington to stage a press event in which the principal Iranian resistance movement, the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MeK), was to be slandered. Veteran VEVAK agent Karim Haqi flew from Amsterdam to Canada where he was joined by VEVAK's Ottawa agents Amir-Hossein Kord Rostami and Mahin (Parvin-Mahrokh) Haji, and the three flew from Toronto to Washington. Fortunately the resistance had been tracking these three, informed the FBI of their presence in Washington, and when the three tried to hold a press conference, the resistance had people assigned to ask pointed questions of them so that they ended the interview prematurely and fled back to Canada.

Abolghasem Bayyenet is a member of the Iranian government. He serves as a trade expert for the Ministry of Commerce. But his background of study and service in the Foreign Ministry indicates that Bayyenet is more than just an economist or a suave and savvy businessman. In an article published in Global Politician on April 23, 2006, entitled “Is Regime Change Possible in Iran?”, Bayyenet leads his audience to think that he is a neutral observer, concerned lest the United States make an error in its assessment of Iran similar to the errors of intelligence and judgment that led to our 2003 invasion of Iraq, with its less than successful outcome. However, his carefully crafted bottom line is that the people of Iran are not going to support regime change and that hardliner President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad actually has achieved greater popularity than his predecessors because of his concern for the problems of the poor and his fight for economic and social justice. To the naive, Bayyenet makes Ahmadinejad sound positively saintly. Conveniently overlooked is the occurrence of over four thousand acts of protest, strikes, anti-regime rallies, riots, and even political assassinations by the people of Iran against the government in the year since Ahmadinejad assumed office. So too, the following facts are ignored: the sizeable flight of capital, the increase in unemployment, and the rising two-figure rate of inflation, all within this last year. Bayyenet is a regime apologist, and when one is familiar with the facts, his arguments ring very hollow. However, his English skills are excellent, and so the naОve might be beguiled by his commentary.

Mohsen Sazegara is VEVAK's “reformed revolutionary”. A student supporter of Khomeini before the 1979 revolution, Sazegara joined the “imam” on his return from exile and served in the government for a decade before supposedly growing disillusioned.

He formed several reformist newspapers but ran afoul of the hardliners in 2003 and was arrested and imprisoned by VEVAK. Following “hunger strikes”, Sazegara was released for health reasons and permitted to seek treatment abroad. Although critical of the government and particularly of Ahmadinejad and KhameneМ, Sazegara is yet more critical of opposition groups, leaving the impression that he favors internal regime change but sees no one to lead such a movement for the foreseeable future. His bottom line: no one is capable of doing what needs to be done, so we must bide our time. Very slick, but his shadow shows his likely remaining ties to the MOIS.

Bombs Tear Through Lebanon Buses (back)

February 13, 2007

Several other vehicles were badly damaged by the blasts

Two bombs have exploded minutes apart near the Lebanese capital, killing three people and wounding 20 others.

The casualties were travelling on two buses near Bikfaya, a mainly Christian town in the hills north of Beirut .

Initial reports said 12 people had died. Investigators sealed off the area to collect evidence from the wrecks.

The bombings come at a time of acute political tension in Lebanon , and a day before the second anniversary of the killing of former PM Rafik Hariri.

Organisers of a mass rally planned in downtown Beirut on Wednesday to mark the Hariri assassination said there were no plans to cancel it.

Every time the possibility of practical solutions looms, Lebanon 's enemies rush to commit a new crime

Lebanese President Emil Lahoud

Lebanese radio said the buses were passing through the village of Ain Alaq , just south of Bikfaya.

The BBC's Jim Muir in Beirut says this clearly well-planned attack, involving considerable organisation, will reinforce fears of many Lebanese that hidden hands are at work trying to stir up civil strife.

Tension

Officials said the first bus exploded, causing damage and casualties, and as people rushed to the scene, a second explosion ripped through the second bus as it drove up behind it.

The death toll was initially reported as much higher, but the Lebanese Red Cross said its workers had only delivered three bodies to hospitals.

Bikfaya is the ancestral home of the Gemayels, one of the most prominent Christian families in Lebanese politics.

Pierre Gemayel, a member of Lebanon 's western-backed, anti-Syrian coalition government, was gunned down by unknown attackers in East Beirut last November.

Three other prominent public figures from the anti-Syrian camp have died in bombings in the last two years. Syria has always denied accusations of involvement.

Saad Hariri, Rafik's son and political heir, described the bombings as a 'cowardly terrorist attack' designed to disrupt the anniversary ceremonies.

President Emile Lahoud, of the pro-Syrian camp, said they were a clear attempt to foil a peaceful resolution between Lebanese factions.

'Every time the possibility of practical solutions looms on the horizon between the Lebanese factions to strengthen their unity, the enemies of Lebanon rush to commit a new crime against innocents,' he said in a statement.

Political and sectarian tensions have running high in Lebanon , erupting in clashes in January between supporters and opponents of the government.

Correspondents say organisers from the different political factions have been working hard to avoid problems at Wednesday's pro-government rally, close to where opposition supporters have been holding a sit-in.

Lebanon 's political crisis arose when six pro-Syrian ministers resigned in November, primarily over the endorsement by the cabinet of a UN tribunal to try suspects in the Hariri bombing.

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6356271.stm

Terrorists Kill 3 in Thailand (back)

February 14, 2007

Three Muslim rubber workers have been shot dead by suspected Islamic militants in the South, police said. Hours later, Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi arrived on Sunday afternoon for a three-day visit aimed largely at boosting cooperation to ease violence in the Muslim-majority South.

Insurgents shot dead a Muslim couple in their mid-30s and the woman's 52-year-old mother as they worked at a rubber plantation in Yala, one of three southern provinces bordering Malaysia that have been wracked by violence.

A three-year Islamic insurgency in southern Thailand has strained ties between the two countries, with reports of insurgent training camps in Malaysia and claims that Thai restaurants there are funding the separatist movement.

Mr Abdullah was greeted by Gen Surayud at Phuket International Airport . The two leaders are scheduled to play golf together this afternoon.

Major issues to be discussed by the two leaders during Mr Abdullah's visit include Malaysia 's help in restoring peace in the three southern trouble-plagued provinces of Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat where about 2,000 people have died in the unrest which has erupted in January 2004 and has continued unabated since then.

The Thai government has dispatched more than 20,000 troops to the troubled region but is facing difficulties to trace the militants who launch guerrilla-style attacks.

Other major issues to be raised during the discussions are efforts to sort out the problem of dual citizenship to enable authorities monitor movements of criminals crisscrossing the common border to be stepped up, strengthen bilateral cooperation in the fields of economy, social and culture, and to exchange knowledge on developing human resources in Thailand 's three southernmost provinces.

Mr Abdullah's visit comes at a time when the two neighboring countries are preparing to celebrate the 50th anniversary of diplomatic ties August 31.

It is also a reciprocal invitation following the Thai prime minister's visit to Malaysia last October 18, less than three weeks after he assumed the premiership.

The leaders will have a joint audience with King Bhumibol Adulyadej in Bangkok tomorrow before formal discussions at Government House.

Relations between the two countries have been strained following the renewed violence in the Muslim-dominant deep South. Ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was topped by the military last September, had periodically accused Malaysia of harboring insurgents and of failing to cooperate in the battle against the militants.

But relations seem to improve as the government under Gen Surayud has adopted a more conciliatory approach than that of Mr Thaksin's government.

Source: http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/topstories.php?id=116720

Embedded in Osama's Land (back)

February 14, 2007

Kandahar : At the Camp Nathan Smith – the Canadian army base in Kandahar - there are more than 2,000 soldiers, part of the International Stabilisation Force ISAF.

We'll be setting out on a patrol in a short while in a Canadian made, armour proof, bullet proof, Light Armoured Vehicle that weighs about 13 tonnes.

Embedded with this patrol is also a civic action unit, involved with the business of winning hearts and.

It's dark inside the vehicle and the only light is from the open hatches, one on either side manned by two gunners.

Our view outside is through a TV screen connected to a camera aligned with the vehicle's 40 mm chain gun. So whichever direction the gun points, the camera's looking there.

The officer heading the mission is Captain Muralt, a man who can sniff danger from distance.

'Primarily the threats we face is from suicide vehicle plants, IEDs, suicide car bombs etc. So we take precautions to ensure that we maintain distance from vehicles that could possibly do us harm,' he says.

Not much comfort there, but we have to get down now at the Kandahar Technical college or what's left of it.

Not too long ago, mortars, live ammunition and grenades were being recovered from these grounds. The college also had to be demined and there's still a lot of work to be done ...

Lt Alfred Li is managing the hearts and minds programme here and he's optimistic.

'This is a programme rather than a project. It's divided into different stages. This is the first stage, we clean it up and then help the school to reconstruct the fabric and try to get different equipment into a fully functional technical school,' he said.

Good intentions aside, there's no doubt some of the constructions added on during Taliban years served military purposes and Osama bin Laden was reported to be a frequent visitor here.

This college was also a base for Osama bin Laden, apparently half the college was used for his own fighters and other people.

He used to train them both ideologically and for military purposes - which of these buildings was used we are not sure but he was here.

'He was teaching his followers, students military operations, guerrilla tactics,' confirms Director of the college, Muhammad Qasim.

So just how many followers or students did he have?

'About two per cent of every 100 persons here were followers of Osama bin Laden,' says Qasim.

Confirmation of another kind - next door to the college is a house where Mullah Omar lived.

We are told it’s out of bounds for journalists and the house is now apparently used by the CIA and Afghan special forces.

Mission over and it's back to base, the patrol went off without a hitch. But some would say they got lucky this time.

Source: http://www.ibnlive.com/news/special-embedded-in-osamas- land/top/33488-2.html

2005 Telecom Break-in Sparked Terror Fears (back)

February 13, 2007

by Mike Slingsby

Burglars sparked a major terrorist scare when they broke into a network of tunnels beneath Manchester city centre, a court heard.

The thieves struck hours after the failed July 21 bombing attempts in London in 2005 at a time when police in Manchester were on high alert.

Officers were tipped off after British Telecom received complaints about problems with phone lines in the city. It was discovered there had been a break-in at a small BT building in Islington Street , Salford .

The building gives access to a network of tunnels built in the 1950s as a secret telecommunications centre designed to withstand a nuclear bomb strike.

A team of forensic experts was sent into the tunnels amid fears the break-in might be a terrorist incident. But it was discovered it was nothing more than a burglary.

The intruders had stolen BT tools worth £14,000 before causing £20,000 damage to phone lines.

A discarded cigarette end was found at the scene, and a DNA analysis led police to 29-year-old Duncan Ritchie, Manchester Crown Court heard.

Ritchie, of Rodney Street , Salford was jailed for 10 months after admitting burglary. He admitted stealing some of the tools but denied vandalising phone cables.

Tunnels

Michael Johnson, defending, said Ritchie had entered the tunnels as a drunken prank when he saw a group of people standing outside their entrance.

'He was not part of the vandalism and he does not accept he took all the items which went missing,' said Mr Johnson.

But Judge Anthony Ensor said he believed the break-in would have required a `considerable amount of planning'.

He told Ritchie: 'This was a serious incident.

'The police treated it as a terrorist incident because of the unhappy timing with terrorist activity in London .' The court heard that bricks had been removed from around the BT building which allowed access to the underground network.

Prosecutor Tina Landale said: 'At first police believed it was a terrorist incident and acted accordingly, with a full forensic team being sent into the tunnels.'

The tunnels are part of the Guardian Underground Telephone Exchange, built in 1955 at a cost of £4m as a secret communications centre in the event of a Soviet nuclear strike on Manchester .

They lie 112ft below ground and run for over two miles from one entrance in Islington Street to another in Ardwick.

The main tunnel is below Back George Street , where telecoms staff worked 24 hours a day on six switchboards in the bunker, which had its own water supply and a six-week supply of food.

Soon after the tunnels were built they became virtually obsolete and were abandoned in the 1970s.

They are still used by BT to run cables under the city centre. A fire in one tunnel in March 2004 resulted in 130,000 phones being cut off in the Manchester area.

Source: http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/s/236/ 236056_raid_on_tunnel_network_sparked_big_terror_alert_.html

A Troubling Look Inside Radical Islam (back)

February 11, 2007

by Jonathan Last

This would likely not surprise Gartenstein-Ross, some of whose Muslim acquaintances even disapproved of his decision to go to law school. Their objection was that, as a lawyer, Gartenstein-Ross would have to swear an oath to defend the Constitution. As one Muslim told him, 'There are some things in the Constitution I like, but a lot of things in the Constitution are completely against Islamic principles.'

When I first met Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, he was a young counterterrorism expert just breaking into print. I had edited some of his work. He seemed like a normal fellow. But as we spoke, he told me a remarkable story.

Gartenstein-Ross grew up in Ashland , Ore. , one of the West Coast's hippie enclaves. His parents were liberal, ecumenical Jews who raised him to believe in the beauty of all faiths. There were pictures of Jesus in his living room and a statue of the Buddha in the backyard. Young Daveed was attracted to various liberal causes and concerned with social justice. He went to college in North Carolina , where he converted to Islam. Upon graduation, Gartenstein-Ross went to work for a religious charity, the Al-Haramain Islamic Foundation, which was run by a group of radicals.

After a year at Al-Haramain, he went to law school, where he eventually left Islam. In the wake of Sept. 11, 2001, Gartenstein-Ross learned that the FBI was investigating Al-Haramain for ties to terrorism. He reached out to the bureau and helped build its case.

Gartenstein-Ross has now told his story in a book, My Year Inside Radical Islam. It is an important resource for understanding Islam in America .

There are two deep insights in My Year Inside Radical Islam. The first is an illumination of one of the pathways to radicalism. When Gartenstein-Ross first converted, he embraced Sufism, a spiritual, moderate sect. He wasn't looking to become an anti-Western fundamentalist. But the more he interacted with other Muslims, the more he was pushed, in a form of groupthink, to embrace an increasingly restrictive faith. He learned that in Islam, all sorts of things are haram (forbidden). Alcohol, of course. And listening to music. And wearing shorts that expose the thigh. And wearing necklaces. Or gold. Or silk. Or using credit cards. Or shaving. Or shaking hands with women.

As Gartenstein-Ross explains, Islam has commandments for every aspect of life, from how to dress to how to wipe yourself after going to the bathroom. And once he joined the Muslim community, he found that the group was self-policing. Members were eager to report and reprimand one another for infractions. It is not hard to imagine how a well-adjusted, intelligent person might get caught up in such a social dynamic.

The book also illustrates the troubling state of Islamic organizations in the United States . Nearly every discussion of Islamic radicalism and terrorism is prefaced by a disclaimer that of course the vast majority of Muslims are morally opposed to both. This may well be true.

But the problem in the current struggle against Islamic fascism is that the radicals often find succor from moderate Muslims - even 'moderates' aren't always as liberal as one might hope. While Gartenstein-Ross never came into contact with actual terrorists, he was surrounded by people - normal Muslim citizens - whose worldviews were unsettling.

Before 9/11, Al-Haramain's headquarters in Ashland was seen as a bastion of moderate, friendly Islam. Pete Seda, who ran the office, was publicly chummy with the local rabbi. The group encouraged public schools to bring children to their offices on field trips. All of this was for public consumption. In private, things were somewhat different.

One of Gartenstein-Ross' coworkers, for instance, often complained about the Nation of Islam, whose members he believed were deviants. He said, 'Let them choose true Islam or cut off their heads.'

Al-Haramain was host to a number of visitors, one of whom was a Saudi cleric named Abdul-Qaadir. He preached that those who leave Islam should be put to death. In defending the execution of apostates, he mused that 'religion and politics aren't separable in Islam the way they are in the West... . Leaving Islam isn't just converting from one faith to another. It's more properly understood as treason.'

In warning Gartenstein-Ross about his engagement to a Christian, Abdul-Qaadir said, 'As long as your wife isn't a Muslim, as far as we're concerned, she is 100 percent evil.'

One night at services, a visiting member of the Egyptian branch of Al-Haramain declared that the Torah was 'The Jews' plan to ruin everything.' He continued, 'Why is it that Henry Kissinger was the president of the international soccer federation while he was president of the United States ? How did he have time to do both? It is because part of the Jews' plan is to get people throughout the world to play soccer so that they'll wear shorts that show off the skin of their thighs.' (Former Secretary of State Kissinger was never president of either the United States or FIFA.)

The reaction of Seda - the 'moderate' who cultivated a public friendship with the local rabbi - was, 'Wow, bro, this is amazing. You come to us with this incredible information.'

Such discourse seems less than rare at American Islamic organizations. A recent New Yorker profile of another homegrown radical, Adam Gadahn (a.k.a. 'Azzam the American' and one of the FBI's most-wanted terrorists), recounted Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman's visit to the Islamic Society in Orange County, Calif. In his lecture, Rahman, later indicted for helping to plot the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, ridiculed the notion that jihad could be nonviolent and exhorted Muslims to take up fighting against the enemies of Allah. Sitting next to him and translating for the congregation was the local 'moderate' imam. The New Yorker reports that 'videotapes of the lecture were later offered for sale at the society's bookstore.'

This would likely not surprise Gartenstein-Ross, some of whose Muslim acquaintances even disapproved of his decision to go to law school. Their objection was that, as a lawyer, Gartenstein-Ross would have to swear an oath to defend the Constitution. As one Muslim told him, 'There are some things in the Constitution I like, but a lot of things in the Constitution are completely against Islamic principles.'

This sentiment - not from an al-Qaeda fighter or a fire-breathing radical, but from a normal, devout Muslim - is important. The challenge Islam poses to the West goes beyond mere terrorism.

Source: http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/columnists/16670675.htm

al-Qaeda's Threat to the UK (back)

December 24, 2006

by B. Raman

Talking to a small group of academics at London on November 9,2006, Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, the Director-General of the British Security Service, generally known as MI-5, stated, inter alia, as follows: The MI 5 is aware of 30 plots to kill people and damage the British economy. 'These plots often have links back to Al Qaeda in Pakistan and through those links, Al Qaeda gives guidance and training to its largely British foot soldiers here on an extensive and growing scale.' The text of her remarks was released by the MI 5 to the media the next day.

Subsequently, Mr.John Reid, the British Home Secretary, said in an interview on GMTV on December 10,2006, that the chances of an attempted terror attack over the Christmas period were 'highly likely'. He added that the terrorist threat facing the UK was 'very high indeed' although he did not think an attack was inevitable.

In an interview over the BBC Radio 4's 'Today' programme on December 22,2006,Sir Ian Blair, the Metropolitan Police Commissioner, said that Britain faced a threat of 'unparalleled nature' from jihadi terrorism. However, he added that there was no specific evidence of any immediate threat.

On December 24,2006, the 'Observer' of the UK carried the following report originating from its correspondent Jason Burke in Paris :

'The Channel tunnel has been targeted by a group of Islamic militant terrorists aiming to cause maximum carnage during the holiday season, according to French and American secret services. The plan, which the French DGSE foreign intelligence service became aware of earlier this year, is revealed in a secret report to the French government on threat levels. The report, dated December 19, indicates that the tip-off came from the American CIA. British and French intelligence agencies have run a series of checks of the security system protecting the 31-mile tunnel but the threat level, the DGSE warns, remains high. British security services remain on high alert throughout the holiday period. According to the French sources, the plan was put together in Pakistan and is being directed from there. The plotters are believed to be Western Europeans, possibly Britons of Pakistani descent. The DGSE say that levels of 'chatter', the constant communication that takes place between militants, has not been so high since 2001. American security sources told The Observer that the threat was 'sky high'.'

The 'Daily Times' of Lahore, a well-informed and reliable daily, reported on December 24,2006, as follows: 'Police are trying to trace a gang of British Muslims who are thought to have returned (to the UK)to plot terror attacks in Britain after being trained abroad for more than a year by Al Qaeda.Nine Britons, all said to be in their twenties, were among a group of 12 Western recruits groomed by Al Qaeda at a secret camp near the Afghan border to set up new terror cells in London and other Western Capitals.Police do not know the real identities of this gang. As well as nine Britons, they include two Norwegians and an Australian who were smuggled into the Waziristan tribal region in Pakistan in October 2005.They are believed to have been under the command of an Al Qaeda veteran suspected of training some of the Britons accused of the alleged plot to blow up passenger planes flying to the US from Heathrow airport in the summer.'

These warnings and reports have come at a time when pro-Al Qaeda elements in Pakistan have stepped up their propaganda campaign against the UK . Previously, anti-UK speeches in the Pakistani mosques and madrasas focussed on its role in Iraq and Afghanistan . For the last one month, they are also drawing attention to its role in Palestine and in backing Israel . The UK is being projected as the original sinner in the creation of Israel and, consequently, as great an adversary of Islam as the US and Israel . The UK 's role in the creation of Israel has also been touched upon in the latest video-recorded message of Ayman al-Zawahiri, the No.2 to Osama bin Laden in Al Qaeda, edited extracts of which were disseminated by the Al Jazeera TV channel on December 20,2006.

The 30 plots against the UK being hatched by Pakistan-based elements, which were referred to by the MI 5 chief, related to the period before the recent intensification of the anti-UK propaganda in Pakistan. While the British authorities seem to be linking the plotters with Al Qaeda, reliable sources in the Pakistani police say that individuals from the Pakistani diaspora in the UK , who have been coming to Pakistan for interactions with the Islamic fundamentalist and jihadi terrorist elements and for undergoing training, are self-motivated. They are inspired by Al Qaeda propaganda, but do not have any organisational affiliation with Al Qaeda. While there is a convergence of ideology, views and anger between the Pakistan/Afghanistan based Al Qaeda elements and the angry elements from the Pakistani diaspora in the UK , it may not be correct to describe them as belonging to a British Al Qaeda.

It is important to keep this difference in view as otherwise the British authorities may end up by giving Al Qaeda a larger than life size image in the UK and this could add to the flow of volunteers to it. Source reports from North Waziristan and Afghanistan say that individual elements from the Pakistani diaspora in the UK and the Scandinavian countries are being given training only in the camps of the Pakistani jihadi organisations such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM), the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ) and the Jundullah and not in the camps of Al Qaeda or the Taliban.Al Qaeda is still afraid that if it opens up its training camps to non-Arabs, its internal security might be diluted, enabling the British intelligence to penetrate it.

Reliable sources say that, firstly, Al Qaeda is keen for another spectacular terrorist strike in Western Europe or North America in order to demonstrate once again its reach; and secondly, since Arabs will have difficulty in carrying this out due to tightened police and security checks on Arabs, it has been encouraging the Pakistani jihadi organisations to take over this responsibility under its guidance. In this connection, two new developments have come to notice. First, the LEJ, which is the most motivated and ferocious of the Pakistani jihadi organisations, has reportedly set up a clandestine presence in the UK and second, self-motivated individual Muslim women from the UK, the US and Canada have been coming to Pakistan to study in the madrasas exclusively for women set up by these pro-Al Qaeda jihadi organisations.An act of suicide terrorism by a woman jihadi in the UK or the US or Canada is a growing possibility.

There are presently two Muslims from the Pakistani diaspora in the UK who are in the preventive custody of the Pakistani authorities. The first is Rashid Rauf, a 25-year-old Mirpuri from Birmingham , who was arrested in the beginning of August,2006, at Bahawalpur and projected by the Pakistani authorities as the master-mind behind the plot discovered by the British Police to blow up a number of US-bound planes. He has since been cleared by an Anti-Terrorism Court in Rawalpindi of charges of involvement in terrorism, but he continues to be detained for trial on other charges not connected to terrorism such as impersonation, over-stayal of stay in Pakistan etc.The second person is somewhat mysterious. His name has been given as Aurangazeb, without any further details. This is apparently not his real name. The Pakistani authorities say he was arrested at a place called Karak in the North West Frontier Province on charges of having links with militant outfits, but do not give any further details. No source information on him is available so far.

On December 23,2006, the Federal Review Board, which authorises the preventive detention of persons on security grounds even if there is no specific case against them, approved a government request to detain Rashid Rauf and Aurangazeb for 90 days. The fact that both the files were put up together to the Board indicates that they are probably connected.

While the pro-Al Qaeda jihadi terrorist elements have the capability to strike in many West European countries, a study of their propaganda and PSYWAR would underline the UK , Denmark and the Vatican as areas of particular concern during the current Christmas/New Year holiday season.

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat,Govt. of India, New Delhi , and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: itschen36@gmail.com )

Source: http://www.ict.org.il/apage/8291.php

Canadian Oil: Target of Terror (back)

February 14, 2007

by Ian MacLeod

Al-Qaeda has called for terrorist strikes against Canada 's oil and natural gas facilities to 'choke the U.S. economy.'

An online message, posted by The Al-Qaeda Organization in the Arabian Peninsula, declares 'we should strike petroleum interests in all areas which supply the United States ... like Canada,' the No. 1 supplier of both fuels to the U.S.

'The biggest party hurt will be the industrial nations, and on top of them, the United States ,' it said.

The group, the Saudi arm of Osama bin Laden's terrorist network, claimed responsibility for a thwarted February 2006 suicide attack on the world's largest oil processing facility at Abqaiq in Saudi Arabia 's eastern province. The group also is believed responsible for other attacks against the Saudi energy sector.

Last week's message is contained in Sawt al-Jihad (Voice of Jihad), the group's online magazine. A feature article, titled 'Bin Laden's Oil Weapon,' encourages al-Qaeda operatives to continue to follow directives from Mr. bin Laden to strike oil targets not only in Saudi Arabia, but elsewhere, according to a translation by the SITE Institute, a non-profit U.S. group that monitors terrorist websites

Three western countries are singled out in the call-to-arms -- Canada first, followed by Mexico and Venezuela . Would-be attackers are instructed to target oilfields, pipelines, loading platforms and carriers.

The Canadian Security Intelligence Service last night said it was aware of the posting, as is the federal Department of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness.

'Do we think it's a serious threat? I can't get into that,' said CSIS spokeswoman Barbara Campion.

Greg Stringham, vice-president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, said the threat is similar to a posting about a year ago, when an al-Qaeda-affiliated Internet blog called on Canadian and U.S. jihadists to attack an Alaskan oil pipeline.

The new posting is 'not singling out Canada , it specifically mentions Canada , but along with some other countries that are suppliers to the U.S,' he said.

'It's not the first time that it's happened and we have no credible threat to substantiate it ... but still we are taking it seriously and we've informed all of our members and contacts about that -- especially those with critical infrastructure -- to pay extra attention and be vigilant.'

Experts have long considered the U.S. dependence on foreign oil -- and al-Qaeda's evolving strategy to attempt to deny the U.S. access to its major oil suppliers -- as the country's Achilles heel.

A major supply disruption would send energy prices soaring. Had the Abqaiq attack been successful -- guards fired on cars driven by the bombers, detonating the explosives inside -- some experts say oil prices would have likely broken all records. A catastrophic hit could bring transportation and other parts of the U.S. and world economies to a standstill.

'We should strike petroleum interests in all areas which supply the United States , and not only in the Middle East , because the target is to stop its imports or decrease it by all means,' says the article, authenticated by security experts as coming from the Saudi al-Qaeda arm.

Tom Quiggan, a senior fellow at the Centre of Excellence for National Security, at Singapore 's Nanyang Technological University , cautioned yesterday: 'We should not be overly concerned at this exact moment. Al-Qaeda is an organization has been severely weakened.'

Even so, 'Sawt al-Jihad has correctly analysed the oil-importing situation of the United States and concluded that it is not just Middle Eastern suppliers that are important,' he said.

The posting appears to be 'intended to send a message to its followers that they should consider a wider set of targets than just those in the Middle East .'

It also is 'an operational suggestion to the 'homegrown jihadists' and independent groups that follow the inspiration message of al-Qaeda. To them, it outlines a suggested list of potential new targets. Canada is at the top of that list.'

Since 2000, he said, Canada 's proven oil reserves have risen from about five billion barrels of oil to more than 180 billion barrels. That puts Canada in the No. 2 position as an oil reserve country, second only to Saudi Arabia and significantly ahead of other states such as Iraq , Kuwait or Iran .

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has called attention to the growing role of his home province of Alberta by telling international audiences that Canada is emerging as an 'energy superpower' with the sole politically stable source of growing oil production on the planet.

Industry installations in Alberta include airport tower-like control rooms for pipelines that deliver about 15 per cent of the natural gas and 10 per cent of the oil consumed in the U.S. as well as most Canadian supplies.

Martin Rudner, director of Carleton University 's Canadian Centre of Intelligence and Security Studies, characterized the posting as 'very serious' and said 'the highest levels in our security and intelligence community,' have been aware of it since Friday.

He said al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is 'a bunch of guys with capability and intent. I would ramp up my awareness, all the kinds of things which intelligence and law enforcement agencies are supposed to do, I would ramp up.'

Because the Sawt al-Jihad article contains operational details of the Abqaiq attack, the first major attack on a Saudi oil facility and one that the groups hails as a success, Mr. Rudner believes the message is intended as a call-to-arms rather than a piece of propaganda aimed at the West.

'They're speaking to their foot soldiers and to their planners. They're saying, 'We were successful (in Abqaiq), what have we got to learn to be more successful? And then you say, 'Here's Canada , Mexico and Venezuela .' That's a signal -- 'What we did Abqaiq we could do there'.'

He said a successful attack against Canadian supplies and a resulting disruption of American oil and gas would also 'damage the most important bilateral trade connection in the infidel world. To interrupt this would be not only of economic significance, but of symbolic significance.'

Kyle Keith, director of operations for the Canadian Energy Pipeline Association, said companies have several emergency programs in place.

'The fact that this information is making the rounds and we're sharing it shows our security programs are working,' he said.

'Unfortunately the nature is your programs are a bit reactive, but so far it looks like things are working as they should -- the sharing of information and the heightened awareness.'

The Saudi group also is believed to have been responsible for a May 2004 incident in which attackers stormed the offices of a Houston-based oil company in the western Saudi oil hub of Yanbu. An ensuring gun battle killed six Westerners, a Saudi and the militants. Several weeks later, gunmen believed to belong to the group stormed oil company compounds in Khobar, on the eastern coast, and took hostages in a siege that killed 22 people, 19 of them foreigners.

Source: http://www.canada.com/components/print.aspx?id=ec29538 6-d4c0-426c-b4d3-b734ae6a48c0&k=73284

Preparing for a Natural Disaster of Pandemic Proportions (back)

February 14, 2007

Since September 11th, and even before, the federal government has run war games. These drills have been designed to prepare for the eventuality of another attack, whether another airplane hijacking, a suicide bombing, or a CBRN attack. Mostly our focus and attention has been on these types of incidents.

Homeland Security includes the efforts of first responders, public safety and of critical infrastructure organizations. Importantly, it addresses a range of hazards and disasters, both natural and manmade. At the heart of the homeland security process is the understanding of anticipation, indications and warning, mitigation, response and recovery.

Last week, another type of war game was held, one that was intended to help prepare the country for a global outbreak of a highly transmissible strain of influenza — a pandemic. While admittedly such outbreaks have occurred infrequently in history, their occurrences are also unpredictable. This war game is described in Agency Uses Mock Outbreak to Prepare for Disaster

A 22-year-old Georgetown University swim team member just back from Indonesia eats dinner with his teammates but then develops a fever and doesn’t accompany them to a meet in New York . That is how a flu pandemic in the United States started.

Unfortunately, a winter storm created a public safety issue and caused the CDC to abort the war game midway through the program, postponing the conclusion of the exercise until April.

The question of how to deal with a possible outbreak of pandemic flu, likely to be a strain of the much publicized H5N1 bird flu, in the United States has been controversial. There has been an on-going debate over whether the fears of a pandemic outbreak of H5N1, or avian flu, was a real risk, or if the crossover of the disease from poultry to humans was possible. This question was back in the news this week, and raised to a new level of awareness and concern that at least at the Center for Disease Control, the possibility is all too real. In addition to the war game, the CDC issued new guidelines in preparation for a flu pandemic.

Probably one of the more scary observations is that if an outbreak were to occur, it is likely that it would take four to six months to prepare a vaccine to protect against a pandemic flu, the guidelines are considered critical to restricting the virus in the interim.

Among other things, these new guidelines have created a scale of 1 to 5, with five representing the most severe outbreak. As expressed in the CDC news release :

'The threat of a pandemic continues to be real. We need to continue helping state and local decision-makers determine some of the specific actions they could take during the course of a pandemic to reduce illness and save lives,' said HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt. 'An important consideration for action is the severity of a pandemic once it emerges. The new CDC guidelines are a step forward in that direction.'

Among the recommended actions in case of a pandemic outbreak are:

1. Asking ill persons to remain at home or not go to work until they are no longer contagious (seven to 10 days). Ill persons will be treated with antiviral medication if drugs are available and effective against the pandemic strain.

2. Asking household members of ill persons to stay at home for seven days

3. Dismissing students from schools and closing child care programs for up to three months for the most severe pandemics, and reducing contact among kids and teens in the community

4. Recommending social distancing of adults in the community and at work, which may include closing large public gatherings, changing workplace environments and shifting work schedules without disrupting essential services.

The actual (and lengthy) plan document can be found here . The CDC’s pandemic flu page is found here .

Why is all of this so important, and how does it relate to homeland security? The answers start with this from the Washington Post article:

The H5N1 strain of avian influenza, or bird flu, has killed millions of birds and 164 people, mostly in Asia , since 2003. It does not pass from person to person efficiently. But it is highly lethal and still evolving; many experts believe it has the potential to cause a pandemic.

Further, the response to an outbreak of a pandemic flu, if it happened, would come under the heading of 'All Hazards' Crisis Management that is governed by HSPD-8. HSPD-8:

'…establishes policies to strengthen the preparedness of the United States to prevent and respond to threatened or actual domestic terrorist attacks, major disasters, and other emergencies by requiring a national domestic all-hazards preparedness goal, establishing mechanisms for improved delivery of Federal preparedness assistance to State and local governments, and outlining actions to strengthen preparedness capabilities of Federal, State, and local entities.'

How real is the threat from H5N1 and how possible is it for the 'bird flu' to spread to humans? Two articles highlight the most recent outbreaks of the 'flu' in poultry.

Deadly Bird Flu Virus Found in Britain and First case of bird flu found on British farm

Simply, these two articles talk about the gassing of 159,000 turkeys from Europe ’s largest poultry producer that were infected with H5N1 while in a sealer shed. The question of transmission is raised. The Washington Post article includes this:

Bird flu has killed or prompted the slaughter of millions of birds worldwide since late 2003. It has killed at least 164 people worldwide, but remains difficult for humans to catch. Experts fear it could mutate into a form that spreads easily among people, potentially sparking a global pandemic. So far, most human cases have been traced to contact with sick birds.

The final point for now, and one that underscores the potential threat is this, Pandemic flu may be only two mutations away (a biologically technical piece):

The difference between a flu virus that kills millions, and one that kills only a few comes down to just two amino acid changes, researchers say.

Knowing the mutations required to convert H5N1 into a flu pandemic threatening humans is an important finding that may permit scientists to remain ahead of the spread of the virus. It is ironic, though perhaps not, that the CDC war game was aborted by something that could well help stem the spread of an H5N1 pandemic flu outbreak it if occurred…a major winter storm that paralyzes a city and keeps everyone indoors and out of contact from others for the duration of the incubation period.

Source: http://rapidrecon.threatswatch.org/2007/02/preparing-for-a- natural-disast/

Afghanistan and an Interesting Arrest in Texas (back)

February 14, 2007

Some Straight Talk on Afghanistan and an Interesting Arrest in Texas

Two very pessimistic reports on the combat situation in Afghanistan point to the fundamental risk there of failure, a risk that is also very high in Somalia, where the same mistakes are being repeated by the United States, the local government and the international community.

The danger in Somalia is borne out by the Texas arrest of U.S. citizen who was trained in Somalia and acknowledges spending time with al Qaeda operatives there, according to an FBI affidavit. Along with numerous Europeans and other Africans, Daniel Maldanado went to Somalia to fight for a true Islamic republic, the affidavit says.

Two things are distressing about the bleak assessments, although they are welcome for their uncharacteristic candor. The first is that the lessons of Afghanistan appear to have not been assimilated at all in the policy community.

That is, the lessons of the first Afghanistan fiasco, when, following the Soviet retreat, little attention was paid to developments there.

The resulting Taliban triumph within a few years, and the rise of the radical salafist theology that seeks to obliterate us, should have been as much of prod to learn lessons as there can be. Yet, despite the loss of blood and treasure there since 9-11, virtually nothing appears to have been learned. And that is indeed tragic.

The second is that, unable to assimilate those lessons in the most urgent of times, there is little learning that can be applied to situations like Somalia . In other words, we are, as we currently sit, as vulnerable or more than we were prior to 9-11 from those non-state actors operating in stateless areas, failed states and criminal states.

First, Army Lt. Gen. Karl W. Eikenberry warned of the entrenched Taliban network in Pakistan , with renewed command and control capabilities, under the protection of Pakistani security forces.

He also warned in stark terms that the Karzai government is faced with the strong possibility of an irreversible loss of legitimacy, one that will give the Taliban the opening it craves to return to power.

This came as the Canadian senate issued a gloomy report on the NATO mission in Afghanistan , warning that the mission will fail unless significantly more resources are dedicated to the struggle there.

It is clear in Afghanistan that the coalition forces won the military war and set the stage for the civilians to follow suit in the political and psychological wars that would inevitably follow. In Somalia , the Ethiopians, at great cost and some risk, removed the Union of Islamic Courts, setting the stage for similar follow-up.

In both cases the civilian governments have failed miserably. But our policy has reflected no anticipation of events that were not difficult to anticipate. The constant short-term tradeoffs in Afghanistan with the warlords, the unwillingness to confront Pakistan over the entrenched Islamist presence in the territories, the inability come up with mechanisms to induce the interim Somali government to form a truly broad-based, national government, have all undermined the chances for long-term success.

The problem is that these regions are a direct threat to us, and reversing these reversals will cost human lives, perhaps many of them. These will be primarily of the troops who will have to be dispatched again to stabilize the situation, and perhaps those of our citizens and allies here and abroad who will suffer from the attacks that will be launched from there.

They will be launched. But we will likely have learned little.

posted by Douglas Farah

Comment

Monday February 12, 2007

The More Things Change...

Several recent events show just how little the world has changed since 9-11, despite promises, proclamations, and flat-out falsehoods that try to paint a different picture.

The two incidents that stand out are the Saudi arrests of 10 'terrorist financiers,' and the continued hate that appears in Saudi and Iranian textbooks.

The charade has gone on since 9-11, and is unlikely to change anytime soon. The current reason that the actions are likely to continue unabated is the Shi’ite resurgence, which is shaking the Sunni regimes of the Gulf to their core. The escalating conflict between Sunni and Shi’ite seems to have launched a new wave of sectarian attacks between the two, carried out in newspapers, TV shows and textbooks so that children learn to hate early.

Since 9-11 the pattern with the Saudi on these issues has been unchanging. Protests are raised, the Saudi say they are changing and/or cracking down, criticism subsides and then life goes back to normal. Adel Al Jubeir, the Saudi ambassador-designate to the U.S. , is a true master of offering the various and shifting Saudi defenses of the indefensible. Let’s hope the Congress keeps him plenty busy by continuing to ask the necessary questions and demanding the administration follow up.

At the same time the Saudis are touting the arrest of mostly political dissidents as terrorist sponsors, the elites of Saudi society are working extremely hard to get the few designated terror supporters (Wa’el Julaidan, Yasin al Qadi et al) off the U.N. and U.S. sanctions list. Others are being rehabilitated in other ways. My friends following this closely say the Saudi government has given virtually everyone designated a clean bill of health, allowing them to again write in Saudi newspapers and lifting whatever minor restrictions may have existed on their activities.

The case of the textbooks, to me, is the most disturbing and not unrelated to the terror financing issues. Both go to the core of the wahhabist belief that any compromise with any other group, even if they are Muslims, is forbidden by Allah. These are deeply theological issues, not simple policy options one can choose to change at some point for political reasons. This is the fundamental issue that U.S. and European foreign policy does not yet take into account. You cannot negotiate with Allah’s immutable word. But we keep trying in the mistaken belief there can be trade offs, compromises and a tactical decisions that are based on worldly considerations.

To keep succeeding generations on board, this stereotyping of Jews, Christians (and Shi’ites), the indoctrination must start at a very young age. This cannot change if the wahhabi grip is to maintain its hold. The schools are the necessary venue for sowing these seeds. Likewise, financing jihad is crucial to the Saudi interpretation of theology. You cannot stop people from spending for Allah’s cause. It simply will not happen.

So the prospects for any sort of real change are not good, and falling as the Sunnis feel threatened. It is time to recognize that within our policy. There are absolutes that will not change until the wahhabis are gone. Al Jubeir can talk for years about the changes taking place, but they are words who can package the unacceptable for a Western audience. It doesn’t mean anything is going to change. Little has since 9-11.

Friday February 9, 2007

The Muslim Brotherhood Makes its Move in Palestinian Territories

The big winner in the Hamas-Fatah peace pact appears to be the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is an armed branch.

While giving up very little Hamas, through the intercession of leaders of the Brotherhood, has sidestepped the issue of recognizing Israel while ceding little to Fatah and opening the way, they hope, for international recognition. This is a common tactical decision by the Brotherhood, which is often willing to trade off short-term contradictions for long-term gains, with the clear understanding that anything written now can be rewritten later.

But the fundamental issue between Fatah and Hamas ( and the Brotherhood) is deep and perhaps irreconcilable, and goes to the heart of the Islamist project. For Hamas, it is a religious matter of faith that Israel cannot be recognized and the Caliphate must be reestablished. Fatah, for all its bumbling incompetence, sees the territorial issues as a matter of policy and politics.

The noted scholar Mamaoun Fandy, recently warned in an article excerpted in the Middle East Media Research Institute, the Muslim Brotherhood has now conquered Palestine as a symbol in the Arab world.

This conquest 'will transform [the Palestinian problem] from a resolvable territorial struggle into a religious struggle that cannot be resolved,' he wrote. A reversal of this trend is highly unlikely because al Jazeera is, at least in large part, controlled by the Mulim Brotherhood, giving it the dominant medium in the region.

Here is a further excerpt that captures the dilemma, both for secular Palestinians and outside policy makers:

'At the time, the incitement was nationalist [in character], while today – after the Muslim Brotherhood has conquered a significant part of the symbolic Palestine – the incitement has become Islamist, and the domestic has become commingled with the external. This is because the structure of the Muslim Brotherhood’s ideological discourse is not based on the separation of the domestic and the external, and because their ideology transcends the borders of [particular Arab] states.

'Hasn’t the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt said that he had no objection to having [even] a Malaysian Muslim rule Egypt, as long as it was not ruled by a Coptic Egyptian? Likewise, the Muslim Brotherhood conquest of the symbolic Palestine means giving the [Palestinian] problem a religious character – and herein lies the danger.

'First of all, giving the Palestinian problem a religious character will lead to a Malaysian Muslim having more rights in Palestine than a Christian Palestinian. Likewise, it will transform [the Palestinian problem] from a resolvable territorial struggle into a religious struggle that cannot be resolved.'

This move by the Brotherhood, as it strengthens its hand in Egypt and grows in influence in Europe and the United States , has gone largely unnoticed and is likely not clearly understood by U.S. policy makers. The focus is almost entirely on Hamas’ unwillingness to recognize Israel , which is a valid point.

But the much larger point is that the Brotherhood is succeeding in creating a governed space, making the already-difficult resolution of any conflict impossible.

Fatah has led in the Hamas electoral victory through kleptocracy, nepotism, corruption, human rights abuse and sheer incompetence. There is little that can be in its defense. Except that the alternative will be far worse.

Source: http://www.douglasfarah.com/

Western Governments and Islam (back)

February 14, 2007

Over the last decades the West has pampered the Muslims. The logic behind that behavior is flawed.

The birth of the new millennium was not as joyous as expected for it brought several unpleasant surprises of which the worst was terrorism.

The impression most people have developed of the series of attacks that climaxed on 9-11 and continued in the following years, is that it is a totally new phenomenon. That however, is not true. Islam has committed numerous similar attacks in the past.

Terrorism is not exclusive of Muslims, but the official sanctioning of it is exclusive of Islam. All religions have used violence to further their cause, but the founder of those creeds did not sanction it. Islam did.

Mohammed was a violent man. He commanded armies, wielded a sword, and sliced people’s throats. Aside from being a man of action and having murdered dozens of persons, he also endorsed violence at the theoretical level. During his life he systemically advocated the use of it and up to the last day of his life, he emphasized on its need. At his deathbed, he urged his followers to spread the word of Allah throughout the world by the sword.

Despite the evidence from history and the systemic killing of Westerners in the last years, Western governments refuse to condemn that religion.

They not only lie about the true nature of Islam, but also deploy large amounts of money to manipulate public opinion. They have endorsed a huge program of propaganda through the media, which is intended on convincing their populations that such a creed is harmless.

That inevitably begs the question: Why do they lie?

The answer lies in the events surrounding the Second World War. That atrocious war, which was the most destructive of all times, was exclusively the doing of Adolph Hitler. Adolph Hitler was an unusual man. He was ignorant, brutish, and mentally deranged and such a mixture of factors drove him to see the world in a very irrational way. He was convinced that the problems of Germany and the world were due to a Jewish conspiracy. He thus endorsed a policy of extermination of the Jews and of other groups, which culminated in something of apocalyptic proportions.

The Second World War was terribly costly in human lives, killing about sixty million and it also laid waste to Europe and other parts of the world.

As a result, the West and more particularly Europe came out traumatized from that event. The whole political class emerged with the firm determination to do everything within its means to avoid a repetition of such a catastrophe. All political parties, from the right to the left, emerged also with the idea that the cause of the war resided in racism.

However, that is completely and absolutely false.

Racism and anti-Semitism had existed for centuries, but never before had a government in Europe pursued a systemic policy of extermination of the Jews.

The fact that never in the history of Europe had there been such a profound economic crisis as the one of the Great Depression, suggests that the crux of the problem lies there.

Hitler only succeeded in getting to power in the wake of the economic depression that ravaged Germany . In 1928, when the German economy was functioning normally, the Nazis won only 4% of the votes but in 1932, when the economy was in collapse and unemployment reached 30%, they got 37%, becoming the largest party in Parliament.

They got the most votes because the traditional parties failed to solve the crisis and the population got desperate. And the traditional parties failed, because the economists of the time did not know what caused economic growth and could therefore not reactivate the economy.

That war, like most in history, was the result of economic hardship and that was the result of a lack of scientific knowledge.

The solution was to figure out what causes economic growth. Had that puzzle been resolved, that war and all the others that came after that one would have been avoided. With the formula for growth, all nations can attain fast and sustained economic growth and poverty and unemployment gets rapidly eliminated. Once those two get eliminated, people no longer search for scapegoats to blame for their troubles.

However, instead of attacking the core of the problem, Western governments did nothing, in the early 1930s or later. They did not deploy large funds for scientific research, so that the economists would have solved the riddle. As it has so frequently happened in the history of humanity, they tried to resolve the matter by tackling the effects and not the cause.

They thus declared racism public enemy number one and got into the habit of condemning anything that remotely came close to sounding like racism.

Over the last decades, they have deployed huge amounts of money to mold public opinion through the media. The goal has been to drill into people’s head the idea that racism is evil, that multiculturalism is a panacea, and that Muslims are good.

They have pushed this false idea so far, that at present they prefer to expose their populations to the violence of Muslim bombs, instead of risking sounding like Hitler.

To this day, the economic science is still incapable of explaining the phenomenon of growth and that is why so many nations endure high levels of unemployment and poverty.

At present, Germany and much of Europe has 12% unemployment and neo-Nazi parties are on the rise. Unsurprisingly, it is in the German states with the highest levels of joblessness where they have made the largest electoral gains.

Source: http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/viewArticle.asp? articleID=20589

WW III - Understanding and Confronting the Threat (back)

January 18, 2007

by Adv. Ophir Falk*

Background:

The fall of the Berlin wall in November 1989 marked the end of the cold war and raised two main, yet contrasting views of the paradigm to come. The first view was advocated by Professor Francis Fukuyama in his brow-raising article called the 'End of History'.[1][1] Fukuyama asserted that 'history', in terms of major human conflicts, had come to an end with the collapse of Soviet communism. The new world order, he led many to believe, would be immune from significant ideological wars and future conflicts would be limited to sporadically localized nuisances that pose no substantial threat to Western civilization and its way of life.

Subsequently, a critical review and an alternative assessment were submitted by Professor Samuel Huntington in an article named 'The Errors of Endism'[1][2] and in a more widely read, famously controversial piece, the 'Clash of Civilizations'.[1][3] In his classic analysis in the latter, Huntington argued, inter alia, that ethnically volatile regions previously held as stable satellite entities of the Soviet Union would gradually erupt and identified that 'Islam has bloody borders'.[1][4]

The fall of the Berlin Wall, and with it the Iron Curtain, was a historical turning point that was seen in the West as the end to a fifty-year long silent war that brought about the liberalization of peoples. In stark contrast, however, militant Muslims viewed that turning point as a direct corollary - indeed, climax - to their successful struggle against the Soviet superpower in its invasion of Afghanistan .

In a 119-page threat assessment released in January 2005 by the National Intelligence Council (NIC), the CIA director's think tank, it was assessed that the likelihood of 'great power conflict escalating into total war … is lower than at any time in the past century'. However, it was emphasized that 'at no time since the formation of the Western alliance system in 1949 have the shape and nature of international alignments been in such a state of flux as they have in the past decade.'[1][5]

True, the liquidation of the Soviet Union removed the ideological impetus of communist domination, but it also released the tight grip the Kremlin had around the ambitions of many satellite republics, peoples and frivolous dictators. The downfall of the Soviet superpower unleashed the specter of nuclear technology know-how and materiel that could leak to those willing and able to pay.[1][6] An oil rich and hate driven Iran is both willing and able to pay.

Future historians may indeed construe that the suicide terrorism phenomenon and the zeal to acquire nuclear terrorism capability attests to the fact that 'history' did not end in 1989, but rather set our generation into a clash of cultures that served as the backdrop to World War III.

Understanding the Threat:

The first day of September 1939, when the Germans invaded Poland , is considered by most historians the official beginning of WWII. There is no clear date of the beginning of what now seems to be WWIII, but 1979 can definitely be considered a watershed year. That same year, militant sects of both Sunnis and Shiites ideologies made a dramatic reentrance on to the world stage.

The Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan motivated the birth of al-Qaeda, while the Shiite religious revolution in Iran brought down the Shah and formed the first ever Shiite Islamic Republic. Both forces champion the resurrection of an Islamic empire that is supposed to dominate the world and correct what in their view, was an accident of history that enabled the rise of the West.[1][7]

At the time, Americans saw the Iranian revolution as a backdrop to the hostage situation at the US Embassy in Teheran and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan as reason enough to boycott the Moscow Olympics and refrain from ratifying the SALT agreements. On the other hand, militant Muslims throughout the Middle East and beyond saw the invasion and revolution as cause for a holy war - Jihad.

The rivalry between Shiites that account for about 16% of the Islamic population and Sunnis that account for almost all of the rest dates back to the death of Muhammad in in the year 632.[1][8] The Shiites supported the successorship of Ali and the Sunnis accepted Abu Bakr. This disagreement was never resolved and served as a setting for more bloodshed than the 'war on terror' and the Israel-Arab conflict combined.

Though rival sects within Islam, both extreme Shiites - mainly represented by Iran and the Hezbollah - and Sunnis, represented by organizations like Hamas and Al-Qaeda, serve as the key players in the global jihad.

These militants simultaneously compete and cooperate with one another. Both seek to destroy the perceived infidels and establish their leadership and supremacy within the Muslim world – Al-Qaeda in the September 11, 2001 attack and in subsequent strikes, Iran in its sponsorship of Hezbollah and Hamas rocketing of Israeli cities and its promise to develop nuclear weapons to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. While each movement aspires to lead the newly established Islamic empire, they both agree it should be an Islamic realm, cleansed of infidel presence or power. This is why they often cooperate with one another against the common enemy, as the Sunni Hamas does with the Shiite Hezbollah against Israel . Both movements, the militant Sunnis led by Al-Qaeda, the militant Shiite led by Iran , declare repeatedly that the destruction of Israel is merely one step towards achieving their larger goal of bringing the downfall of the West. Israel simply happens to be the closest Western target. Militant Islamists do not hate the West because of Israel , they hate Israel because of the West. They see it as the quintessential representative of the free and, in their eyes, hedonistic and corrupt Western civilization they despise so much.[1][9]

The Iran – Hezbollah – Al-Qaeda Connection

The NIC emphasizes that as an ever-morphing decentralized movement, terrorism is in many ways much more difficult to uncover and defeat than nation states. Terrorists are able to easily communicate, train and recruit through the Internet, and their threat will become 'an eclectic array of groups, cells and individuals that do not need a stationary headquarters', the council's report says. 'Training materials, targeting guidance, weapons know-how, and fund-raising will become virtual (i.e. online).' [1][10] This threat is vehemently multiplied when nation states serve as sponsors of terrorism.

Today Iran is the most active state sponsor of terrorism in the world.[1][11] The Shiite cooperation between Iran and its terrorist proxy Hezbollah against the West goes as far back as 1983 with the murderous attacks against American and French peace forces in Lebanon. This cooperation has yet to cease.

The joint Shiite-Sunni venture between Iran , Hezbollah and Al-Qaeda against the West has also been evident on many occasions:

· In an indictment against an al-Qaeda operative responsible for the attack on US embassies in Tanzania and Nairobi that resulted in hundreds of fatalities, the US Justice Department alleged that bin Laden had 'stated privately … that Al-Qaeda should put aside its differences with Shiite Muslim terrorist organizations, including the government of Iran and its affiliated terrorist group Hezbollah, to cooperate against the perceived common enemy, the United States and its allies...' Thus, the indictment explained: 'Al-Qaeda also forged alliances … with the government of Iran and its associated terrorist group Hezbollah for the purpose of working together against their perceived common enemies in the West, particularly the United States'.[1][12]

· The 9/11 Commission states: 'senior Al-Qaeda operatives and trainers traveled to Iran to receive training in explosives. In the fall of 1993, another such delegation went to the Bekaa Valley in Lebanon for further training in explosives as well as intelligence and security.'[1][13]

· In a statement published by the US attorney General following the Al-Qaeda bombing of the Khobar Towers , it was charged that 'elements of the Iranian government inspired, supported, and supervised members of the Saudi Hezbollah. In particular… the charged defendants reported their surveillance activities to Iranian officials and were supported and directed in those activities by Iranian officials'.[1][14]

· There are even reports that on July 26, 2002, bin Laden and his family received safe harbor from Iran as American forces began closing in on him in Afghanistan.[1][15]

At Iran ’s annual 'World Without Zionism' conference held in October 2005, Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad told his audience, 'We are in the process of an historical war between the 'world of arrogance' and the Islamic world, and this war has been going on for hundreds of years'. He elaborated by emphasizing, 'the annihilation of the Zionist regime will come... Israel must be wiped off the map... and God willing, with the force of God behind it, we shall soon experience a world without the United States and Zionism'. 'Very soon', he proclaimed about Israel as a 'stain of disgrace [and] will vanish from the center of the Islamic world — and this is attainable'. [1][16]

Many naïve observers dismiss the militant Islamic zeal for conquest as the outcome of frustration and will pass with time. This is a dangerous mistake. Unchallenged, this ideology will grow with time. If Iran develops nuclear weapons it will be the first time in history that an extreme ideology bent on destruction of 'infidels' and world domination will have nuclear weapons.[1][17]

The former Prime Minister of Israel, Mr. Benjamin Netanyahu, was recently approached by a 12 year old social studies student in New York . The youngster asked the former Prime Minister if he could give him a statement to bring back to class that summarizes the current state of international affairs. In response, Mr. Netanyahu said, 'today is 1938 and Iran is German' and pointed out that the main difference is that today's Iran is not leaving any room for doubt concerning her intentions to make use of weapons of mass destruction.Confronting the Threat

Iran can and must be stopped. It is the pressing issue of our time as Iran strives for nuclear weapon capability and reiterates its intent to use it against the West. The Iranian threat intertwined with that of the global terrorism jihad, calls for a joint international effort of defining and confronting the threat.

The internationally accepted definition of war is 'the wide spread use of force, between sovereign States, by means of their military'[1][18]. That definition is outdated as it ignores terrorism. Yet, the 'jihad' that has been launched against the 'infidels' is undoubtedly a global war and should be confronted as such. In fact, President Bush has said that the war against global jihadism is more than a military conflict; it is the decisive ideological struggle of the 21st century.[1][19] The international community should recognize this struggle and act accordingly.

The unrevised American policy concerning Iran , and their terrorist allies was made clear by President Bush in his State of the Union Address: ' Iran aggressively pursues [weapons of mass destruction] and exports terror,' Bush declared, 'while an unelected few repress the Iranian people's hope for freedom. ... States like these, and their terrorist allies, constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world'.[1][20]

The diplomatic efforts to persuade Iran to refrain from pursuing nuclear capabilities have been fruitless, and have only provided Iran with more time to plan and develop weapons of mass murder.

The free world can not limit itself to talk while Iran plots to kill.

* The Author is an ICT Research Fellow and a Partner at the Naveh Kantor Even-Har Law firm.

[1][1] 'The End of History?' The National Interest, by Francis Fukuyama, Summer 1989.

[1][2] 'The Errors of Endism' The National Interest, by Samuel Huntington, Fall 1990

[1][3] 'The Clash of Civilizations?' Foreign Affairs, 72 (3) Summer, pp.22-49, Samuel Huntington, 1993

[1][4] Ibid.

[1][5] ' Iraq New Terror Breeding Ground' by Dana Priest, Washington Post Jan.14, 2005

[1][6] 'Fighting Terrorism', by Benjamin Netanyahu, Farrar, Straus and Giroux , New York , 2001. p. 129

[1][7] Excerpt from soon to be published book - 'Fat Man, Thin Man', by Benjamin Netanyahu (2007)

[1][8] 'Why They Fight And what it means for us' by Peter Wehner, Wall Street Journal, Jan. 9, 2007

[1][9] Excerpt from soon to be published book - 'Fat Man, Thin Man', by Benjamin Netanyahu (2007)

[1][10] ' Iraq New Terror Breeding Ground' by Dana Priest, Washington Post Jan.14, 2005

[1][11] 'Why They Fight And what it means for us' by Peter Wehner, Wall Street Journal, Jan. 9, 2007

[1][12] 'Negotiate with Iran ? How many Americans do they need to kill before we get the point?' by, Andrew McCarthy National Review Online December 8, 2006

[1][13] 9/11 Commission report p.61

[1][14] US Attorney General announcement, June 21, 2001

[1][15] 'Bin Laden's Iran alliance' by Richard Miniter Washington Times, October 27, 2004

[1][16] Remarks by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during a meeting with protesting students at the Iranian Interior Ministry, October 25, 2005

[1][17] Excerpt from soon to be published book - 'Fat Man, Thin Man', by Benjamin Netanyahu (2007)

[1][18] Dinstein, Laws of War (Tel Aviv, 1983) pg. 14, O. Detter, 5-9, The Law of War, 2nd edition, Cambridge 2000.

[1][19] 'Why They Fight And what it means for us' by Peter Wehner, Wall Street Journal, Jan. 9, 2007

[1][20]President George Bush's State of the Union address on Jan. 29, 2002

Source: http://ict.org.il/apage/9347.php

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