World Terrorism: News, History and Research Of A Changing World #6 Disinformation, Inc.

VEVAK learned its methodology from the Soviet KGB and many of the Islamist revolutionaries who supported Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini actually studied at Moscow's Patrice Lumumba Friendship University, the Oxford of terrorism. Documented Iranian alumni include the current Supreme Leader (the faqih) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, under whose Velayat-e Faqih (Rule of the Islamic Jurisprudent) apparatus it has traditionally operated. Its current head is Cabinet Minister Hojatoleslam Gholam-Hussein Mohseni-Ezhei, a graduate of Qom's Haqqani School, noted for its extremist position advocating violence against enemies and strict clerical control of society and government. The Ministry is very well funded and its charge, like that of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (the Pasdaran) is to guard the revolutionary Islamic Iranian regime at all costs and under all contingencies.

From the KGB playbook, VEVAK learned the art of disinformation. It's not so difficult to learn: tell the truth 80% of the time and lie 20%. Depending on how well a VEVAK agent wants to cover his/her tracks, the ratio may go up to 90/10, but it never drops below the 80/20 mark as such would risk suspicion and possible detection. The regime in Teheran has gone to great lengths to place its agents in locations around the world. Many of these operatives have been educated in the West, including the U.K. and the United States. Iranian government agencies such as embassies, consulates, Islamic cultural centers, and airline offices regularly provide cover for the work of VEVAK agents who dress well and are clean shaven, and move comfortably within our society. In this country, because of the severance of diplomatic relations, the principal site of VEVAK activities begins at the offices of Iran's Permanent Mission to the UN in New York.

Teheran has worked diligently to place its operatives in important think tanks and government agencies in the West. Some of its personnel have been recruited while in prison through torture or more often through bribery, or a combination of both. Others are Islamist revolutionaries that have been set up to look like dissidents - often having been arrested and imprisoned, but released for “medical reasons”. The clue to detecting the fake “dissident” is to read carefully what he/she writes, and to ask why this vocal “dissident” was released from prison when other real dissidents have not been released, indeed have been grievously tortured and executed. Other agents have been placed in this country for over twenty-five years to slowly go through the system and rise to positions of academic prominence due to their knowledge of Farsi and Shia Islam or Islamist fundamentalism.

One of the usual tactics of VEVAK is to co-opt academia to its purposes. Using various forms of bribery, academics are bought to defend the Islamic Republic or slander its enemies. Another method is to assign bright students to train for academic posts as specialists in Iranian or Middle East affairs. Once established, such individuals are often consulted by our government as it tries to get a better idea of how it should deal with Iran. These academics then are in a position to skew the information, suggesting the utility of extended dialogue and negotiation, or the danger and futility of confronting a strong Iran or its proxies such as Hizballah (Hezbollah). These academics serve to shield the regime from an aggressive American or Western policy, and thereby buy more time for the regime to attain its goals, especially in regards to its nuclear weaponry and missile programs.

MOIS likes to use the media, especially electronic media, to its advantage. One of VEVAK's favorite tricks is setting up web sites that look like they are opposition sites but which are actually controlled by the regime. These sites often will be multilingual, including Farsi, German, Arabic French, and English. Some are crafted carefully and are very subtle in how they skew their information (e.g., Iran-Interlink, set up and run by Massoud Khodabandeh and his wife Ann Singleton from Leeds, England); others are less subtle, simply providing the regime's point of view on facts and events in the news (e.g., www.mujahedeen.com or www.mojahedin.ws). This latter group is aimed at the more gullible in our open society and unfortunately such a market exists. However, if one begins to do one's homework, asking careful questions, the material on these fake sites generally does not add up.

Let's examine a few examples of VEVAK's work in the United States. In late October, 2005, VEVAK sent three of its agents to Washington to stage a press event in which the principal Iranian resistance movement, the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MeK), was to be slandered. Veteran VEVAK agent Karim Haqi flew from Amsterdam to Canada where he was joined by VEVAK's Ottawa agents Amir-Hossein Kord Rostami and Mahin (Parvin-Mahrokh) Haji, and the three flew from Toronto to Washington. Fortunately the resistance had been tracking these three, informed the FBI of their presence in Washington, and when the three tried to hold a press conference, the resistance had people assigned to ask pointed questions of them so that they ended the interview prematurely and fled back to Canada.

Abolghasem Bayyenet is a member of the Iranian government. He serves as a trade expert for the Ministry of Commerce. But his background of study and service in the Foreign Ministry indicates that Bayyenet is more than just an economist or a suave and savvy businessman. In an article published in Global Politician on April 23, 2006, entitled “Is Regime Change Possible in Iran?”, Bayyenet leads his audience to think that he is a neutral observer, concerned lest the United States make an error in its assessment of Iran similar to the errors of intelligence and judgment that led to our 2003 invasion of Iraq, with its less than successful outcome. However, his carefully crafted bottom line is that the people of Iran are not going to support regime change and that hardliner President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad actually has achieved greater popularity than his predecessors because of his concern for the problems of the poor and his fight for economic and social justice. To the naive, Bayyenet makes Ahmadinejad sound positively saintly. Conveniently overlooked is the occurrence of over four thousand acts of protest, strikes, anti-regime rallies, riots, and even political assassinations by the people of Iran against the government in the year since Ahmadinejad assumed office. So too, the following facts are ignored: the sizeable flight of capital, the increase in unemployment, and the rising two-figure rate of inflation, all within this last year. Bayyenet is a regime apologist, and when one is familiar with the facts, his arguments ring very hollow. However, his English skills are excellent, and so the naОve might be beguiled by his commentary.

Mohsen Sazegara is VEVAK's “reformed revolutionary”. A student supporter of Khomeini before the 1979 revolution, Sazegara joined the “imam” on his return from exile and served in the government for a decade before supposedly growing disillusioned.

He formed several reformist newspapers but ran afoul of the hardliners in 2003 and was arrested and imprisoned by VEVAK. Following “hunger strikes”, Sazegara was released for health reasons and permitted to seek treatment abroad. Although critical of the government and particularly of Ahmadinejad and KhameneМ, Sazegara is yet more critical of opposition groups, leaving the impression that he favors internal regime change but sees no one to lead such a movement for the foreseeable future. His bottom line: no one is capable of doing what needs to be done, so we must bide our time. Very slick, but his shadow shows his likely remaining ties to the MOIS.

http://cbs4.com/topstories/local_story_347154356.html

Miami Terror Suspect Claims 'I Was Set Up'

Brian Andrews http://cbs4.com/bios/local_bio_327104734.html
Reporting

(CBS4) MIAMI A South Florida contractor arrested by the FBI along with
6
others for allegedly conspiring to commit terrorist acts is giving his
side
of the case from behind bars. Narseal Batiste wrote a 25-page letter to
CBS4's Brian Andrews, in which he says he and his group never had
terrorist
intentions. Insteadm he said he and his "followers" were looking for
money
for their Liberty City religious organization.

The FBI tailed Batiste and his followers for months, generating hours
of
video surveillance as they built their case against them, saying they
conspired with what they thought was a known terrorist organization to
blow
up federal buildings and Chicago's Sears Tower.

"I want you to know that I never had any intentions of doing a
terrorist
act," Batiste now says in his letter. "My group and I never had reason
to
harm anyone."

Batiste writes the FBI put drugs in food he and co-defendants Patrick
Abraham were served by the FBI informant the night a surveillance tape
was
shot, on which Batiste talks about blowing up the Sears Tower. He wrote
that
he's simply telling the informant what he wanted to hear, just so he
could
get money from him for their church.

"That's why you see me playing with tissue boxes talking about blowing
up
the Sears Tower. I made it up right then and there," he wrote.

On the surveillance tape he is heard talkng about the Tower's
weaknesses and
where he would plant dynamite to take it down. He's also heard telling
the
informant he would need horses for an army of men to wage a war on the
government in the chaos that would follow such an attack.

"If you listen to the words I was saying, it's unrealistic, such as I
need
horses," he wrote.

Batiste says he and his group were desperate for money, and that last
September, a convenience store owner from Yemen offered assistance. He
says
the North Miami Beach shopkeeper, whom Batiste identifies as Abbas,
teamed
up with the feds to get help for his own financial and immigration
problems
by concocting the lies that led to Batiste and six others being
arrested.

"He played like he was going to help us fix our new headquarters,
because he
knew our intentions were to help our community," he said in the letter.
"Abbas starting talking crazy like 'I want to get Bush to stop the war
in
Iraq and I want to blow up something.'"
continued

[flyover??]

Ten injured in Guwahati market blast

http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=123813&version=1&template_id=40&parent_id=22

http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=123813&version=1&template_id=40&parent_id=22

Ten injured in Guwahati market blast

GUWAHATI: A grenade thrown from a flyover by suspected separatist
rebels
exploded in a crowded market in restive state of Assam yesterday,
wounding
10 civilians, police said.

"Several of the wounded are in a critical condition," RajenSingh, a
senior
police officer, said.

The attack took place in Guwahati, the state's biggest city. Singh said
that
militants of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), fighting
against
New Delhi's rule in the tea-and-oil-rich state, were likely to be
behind the
attack.

Police also suspect ULFA for a grenade attack earlier yesterday in
Sivsagar
town, 400km east of Guwahati, where six civilians were wounded.
Thousands
have been killed in the 27-year-old ULFA revolt.

Since New Delhi and the rebels called off peace talks in September, the
state has witnessed several bomb and grenade attacks which killed more
than
a dozen people.

An Indian Army commander said at least six ULFA rebels were killed
recently
in the offensive so far and five more arrested while trying to flee.
Some
100 ULFA rebels were located in A runachal Pradesh, police said.

'Some of the fleeing ULFA rebels from Arunachal Pradesh were moving
towards
the Bhutan border and probably trying to set up bases inside the
kingdom
once again,' an intelligence official said.

In December 2003, Bhutan evicted hundreds of rebels belonging to three
outlawed rebel armies from Assam, including the ULFA, in a massive
military
offensive that lasted nearly a month.

More than 30 well entrenched rebel camps inside Bhutan were smashed and
dozens of militants killed in the operation by Bhutanese troops.

The ULFA had shifted its base to Arunachal Pradesh after the Bhutanese
crackdown.

'We are going to break the militant camps and shelters and the
operation
would continue till we are satisfied,' Arunachal Pradesh police chief
Amod
Kant said.

Last month a powerful bomb explosion near a train station in India's
restive
northeast killed three people including a toddler and wounded nine
others,
police said.

The bomb detonated at a motorised rickshaw stand outside the train
station
of Guwahati, capital of the insurgency-ridden state of Assam, said T
Rabha,
a railway spokesman.

A man, his wife and 18-month-old son were killed, while nine others
were
wounded in the powerful blast, police officer Rajen Singh said.

The bomb went off shortly before the Rajdhani Express from New Delhi to
Gauhati was to enter the station, Rabha said.

No group immediately claimed responsibility for the bombing, but Singh
blamed the United Liberation Front of Asom or ULFA - a separatist
outfit
that often targets government offices and public places - for the
attack.

"We are convinced ... that ULFA rebels are behind the blast," Singh
told
reporters. - Agencies

Today in History:
December 22, 1920 - Burma
National Day
National Day of the Union of Burma commemorates a boycott launched against the Rangoon University Act of the British, which allowed only the rich and a handful of anglophiles to receive higher education. Considered to be the beginning of the National Education Movement.

Upcoming Significant Events:
December 23, 1933 - Japan
Birthday of Emperor Akihito
No information provided.

December 23, 1956 - Egypt
Victory Day
Celebrates the withdrawal of British, French and Israeli forces from Port Said and the Suez Canal Zone.

December 23, 1975 - Greece
U.S. Embassy Official Killed
U.S. embassy official Richard Welch was killed outside of his home in Athens. The Greek terrorist organization "November 17" subsequently took credit for his assassination.

December 23, 1976 - Philippines
Tripoli Agreement Signed
The Marcos government signed the Tripoli Agreement, which was to provide for greater autonomy for Muslim regions of the Philippines.

December 24, 1951 - Libya
Independence Day
No information provided.

December 24, 2003 - Iraq
Suicide truck bomb explodes outside a government building
A vehicle bomb detonates outside the gates of the interior ministry building in a Kurdish town in Iraq. 5 are killed and 100 wounded in the blast.

December 25, 1978 - Cambodia
Fall of Phnom Penh
Khmer Rouge regime toppled from power, as Phnom Penh falls to invading Vietnamese forces. Khmer Rouge forces retreat west, and set up base camps on the Thai border and in the Cardamon Mountains to continue resistance against the Vietnamese.

December 25, 1979 - Afghanistan, Russia
Invasion by Soviet Troops
No information provided.

December 25, 1982 - Senegal
Casamance Movement Founded
MFDC, the Casamance Separatist Movement, was founded. Armed attacks by the group have occurred on this date, to mark the anniversary of the founding of the MFDC.

December 25, 1991 - Russia
Russia Successor to U.S.S.R.
Mikhail Gorbachev resigned as president of the Soviet Union on December 25, 1991 and transferred control of the Soviet nuclear arsenal to Russian president Boris Yeltsin. A few hours later, the United States recognized Russia as the successor state to the Soviet Union. These actions marked the end of the Soviet Union 74 years after the Bolshevik Revolution.

December 25, 2003 - Pakistan
Suicide vehicles fail to kill President Musharraf
Two suicide vehicles exploded as Musharraf’s Mercedes drew near yet left the President uninjured. 14 were killed, and 46 were wounded. This was the second assassination attempt against Musharraf in 11 days.

December 26, (year unknown) - Taiwan
Constitution Day
No information provided.

December 26, 1893 - China (People's Republic of)
Birthday of Mao Ze Dong
No information provided.

December 26, 1893 - Peru
Birthday of Mao Zedong
The birthday of Chinese communist leader Mao Zedong has been marked by the Sendero Luminoso (SL) guerrilla organization by terrorist attacks.

December 26, 1968 - Philippines
Founding of the CPP
Founding of the Maoist Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) by Jose Maria Sison.

December 26, 1991 - Algeria
FIS Wins First Round of Voting
The Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) won the first round of voting in Algeria's parliamentary elections. The second round of elections, scheduled for January 16, 1992, were cancelled when Algerian president Benjedid resigned on January 12, 1992.

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,20966921-661,00.html

Bashir stays on terror list

MUSLIM cleric Abu Bakar Bashir will stay on the Australian Government's
list
of top terror figures despite being acquitted of charges over the 2002
Bali
bombings.

A day after Bashir was cleared by an Indonesian court, Foreign Affairs
Minister Alexander Downer said he was still of deep concern to
Australia.

Bali bomb victims attacked the verdict as Australian Federal Police
chief
Mick Keelty said there was no doubt Bashir was involved in the attacks
that
killed 202 people, including 88 Australians.

Mr Keelty also warned of fresh terror attacks in Indonesia over
Christmas.

And the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade travel advisory cites
credible threat of violence.

Indonesia's Supreme Court ruled Bashir did not give his blessing to the
bombings, overturning his conviction for conspiracy.

It follows his release in June after serving less than 26 months of a 2
1/2-year sentence for terrorism offences.

Bashir yesterday said the judges who overturned his terror conviction
will
be rewarded by God for making non-believers like Mr Keelty angry.

He repeated his calls for Prime Minister John Howard to convert to
Islam.

Mr Keelty said the case against Bashir had been a difficult one,
involving
circumstantial evidence.

He said there was enough evidence he was connected to those involved in
the
bombings, and that he was the head of Jemaah Islamiah.

"I don't resile from the fact that from the intelligence perspective,
as
opposed to an evidentiary perspective, he clearly was a key figure," Mr
Keelty said.

"He clearly was consulted by the bombers before."

Mr Downer expressed his disappointment.

"He is still advocating violence, he is still advocating an extremist
agenda," he said.

A father who lost his son in the attacks said the verdict was an
outrage.

David "Spike" Stewart, whose son Anthony, 29, died in the October 12
attacks, called Bashir's involvement undeniable.

"This mongrel's 67. How many good people have died that are much
younger?"
Mr Stewart asked.

"He's ruined my life; he's ruined my family's life; he's ruining
hundreds
and hundreds of families."

Magistrate Brian Deegan, whose son Josh was killed, said he wasn't
surprised
at the ruling.

"I don't give a damn any more," Mr Deegan said.

"I think I will never understand the Indonesian judicial system.

"I lost faith a long time ago in the entire process."

Mr Howard said he was powerless to do anything.

"It is the court system of another country and we can't change that,"
Mr
Howard told Channel 9.

But he said those who had conducted the attacks were being punished.

Bashir, who called the decision a blow to the West, said his lawyers
were
considering suing the Indonesian Government for the time he spent in
jail.

Lawyers said the decision could mean a judicial review by bombers
Amrozi,
Mukhlas and Imam Samudra would succeed.

The Church and the Sword...

Thoughts on the New Testament and military service...interesting reading...

Return to the Article

December 22, 2006
Pacifism and the Sword: Conclusion

By James Arlandson

This article is the conclusion of the seven-part series on pacifism and the sword in the New Testament. The purpose of the series has been to bring clarity to many contradictory and confusing opinions circulating around the web and in the print media.

Part One is the key to the entire series. It demonstrates that Jesus separates the kingdom of God from the kingdom of Caesar . And he did not intend to reestablish the theocratic kingdom of Israel (Acts 1:6-7), which fused together religious and civil law with a military in the Old Testament. Instead, he does a new thing (Isaiah 42:9; 43:19; 48:6) throughout the globe, establishing the kingdom of God that breaks down all barriers. It is a remarkable (and miraculous) fact that his movement has and is succeeding, for it indeed goes around the world. His prediction that it would do this has been and is being fulfilled (Matt. 13:31-32; 28:18-20).

Following the key theme of two kingdoms, I hypothesized in the Conclusion of the first article that all of the verses in the New Testament on pacifism and the sword would fall into place and receive clarification. I wrote (slightly edited):

. . . Understanding the separate kingdoms of God and Caesar (the State) . . . is essential for grasping all of the verses in the New Testament about peace and the sword. Such verses will fall into place once the division of kingdoms is elaborated on.

The entire series confirms that hypothesis. The two-kingdom theology means that the kingdom of God does not wield a sword. Rather, the spiritual kingdom wages only spiritual warfare. The New Testament hands the literal sword over to the kingdom of Caesar .

Before proceeding, I should point out that I did not deal with two topics: the doctrine of just war and the Book of Revelation. A study of just war would demand an even longer series. Plus, if we cannot sort out what the New Testament says, then we cannot move past the preliminaries, for the New Testament is the foundation for hundreds of millions of believers. The Book of Revelation describes events in the End Times that only God has control of, and he will judge his planet in his way and in his time. It would have been difficult to build doctrine on that book. But nothing in it contradicts this series. In fact, the sacred book confirms it, particularly the doctrine of divine judgment.

Part Two in the series reveals that at first glance the Gospels seem to permit the disciples to wield a sword. Matthew 10:34 says that Jesus came to bring a sword, not peace. However, this verse is found in the context of family division, not a military holy war. He never commanded his followers to use a sword against a stubborn family member. In fact, just the opposite: a violent family member may become hostile against a new convert to the Jesus movement. His disciples have to be ready for that.

Next, in Luke 22:36 Jesus told his disciples on the night he was betrayed and arrested that they should sell their cloak and buy a sword, each. The disciples then show him two swords, and he said that the two were enough. However, when Peter actually used one of the swords in the Garden of Gethsemane , where Jesus was about to be seized and led away, he rebuked Peter. "No more of this!" And then: "Put your sword back in its place! He who draws the sword shall die by the sword!" Parts Two and Four demonstrate that this one act of violence happened before the formal creation of the Church (Acts 2). Sword use was never a church-wide and regular policy. The disciples turned the world right side up with preaching and praying alone-following their Lord and waging only spiritual warfare.

In Part Three we see that God honors soldiers and officers with blessings. Two of them even converted. Each one remained in the military, and each one carried his weapons after receiving a divine blessing or conversion. However, we should balance that out with the truth that the New Testament texts do not suggest that the Church as an institution should become militant. The stories are about individuals serving as lawful agents of the State, not in a Christian institution. They are trained agents of Caesar. This fits the two-kingdom theology so clearly spelled out in the entire New Testament, confirming the theme of the series as well.

Part Four shows that God ordains that the State may wield the sword to enforce justice on the earth, which brings about peace (Romans 13:1-7; 1 Peter 2:13-16 and 4:15). This part in the series demonstrates, once again, that the two kingdoms are separate, which expresses the wisdom of God. There are four implications of Part Four, as follows:

First, the State does not receive direct revelations from God. We can therefore use reason to shape it and to establish, for example, democratic institutions. We do not have to follow the dictates of any theocrat throughout history. But the Church should counsel the State towards righteous policies, avoiding religious or secular oppression and intolerance. And it would be beneficial if the State were to realize that it receives its ultimate ordination from God.

Second, the United States has learned the lesson of separation. The Founders of our nation write the First Amendment of the Constitution thus, in its entirety:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

After learning the hard lesson of keeping the State and the Church separate, the US is following the divine order revealed in the New Testament. That is why its citizens living under this law enjoy God-ordained religious freedom and tolerance.

Third, the lawful agents of the State are called "servants" of God (Romans 13:4). As I observed in Parts Four and Six (slightly edited):

. . . If a Christian becomes a soldier or a police officer, then he officially and publicly serves the State. But his private faith and religion will make him a better servant because he strives to act with integrity. Ultimately, the Christian soldier or officer serves a just and loving God, so he follows and obeys justice and love (not one without the other). All of this depends on fluctuating circumstances. The soldier or officer must exercise wisdom as to when and how to apply love and justice. This is why he must stay in Christian fellowship, so he can ask for counsel from the body of believers. He must also know the law, which provides a lot of guidance in difficult situations.

Fourth and finally, the following has been another theme running throughout the series. I have written in nearly every article:

Church leaders in the name of the Church or of God should never convene a council or general assembly in order to raise an army to fight battles and to coerce heretics and opponents to conform.

If the Church were to do this, we would witness a repeat of its atrocities sometimes (not always) in its history. May we never see the Church committing atrocities again! However, since God ordains that the State may wield the sword, Christian pacifists disobey their own Scriptures if they counsel only pacifism.

Part Five argues that it would be most unwise for the Church to counsel the State to turn the other cheek. That forces the theology of the kingdom of God on to the kingdom of Caesar . Part Five concluded (edited):

Thus, in addition to the rhetorical interpretation, we have two other main ones, the historical (legal) and the eschatological [end times]. But whichever one an individual Christian or believing community chooses (or a combination of the three), none of the interpretations directly apply to the State. "Turn the other cheek," appearing in the context of the Sermon on the Mount and then the Sermon on the Plain, is addressed to the new kingdom community who heeds the call to a new way of life. The kingdom of Caesar has to deal with life-and-death danger, not a rhetorical device, a formal slap on the face between neighbors in a legal context, or a personal, eschatological context of insults. To be accurate and faithful to the verse, it says nothing about a national attack or criminal activity, which the kingdom of Caesar has to deal with.

Part Six follows a Question and Answer format, covering topics not found in the previous parts. Notably, it explores the dilemma that says that all Christians are commanded to love their enemies, so are Christian soldiers and police officers permitted to kill them, if necessary and lawful? The short answer is yes. Readers may click on Part Six, below, to find the discussion.

To conclude the series, I end once again with the main foundation or theme. The kingdom of God is distinct from the kingdom of Caesar . Briefly stated, the mission of the Church, which is created by the kingdom of God , is to save souls, teach believers, and help the needy in practical ways. It was not and will never be called to bloody people with swords.

May the two kingdoms never again be fused together!

And may the Church fulfill its true mission!

This series is dedicated to all the law enforcement and military personnel around the world. Thank you for your service.

James M. Arlandson may be reached at jamesmarlandson@hotmail.com

Part One: Christians, Pacifism, and the Sword

Part Two: Pacifism and the Sword in the Gospels

Part Three: Soldiers, Officers, and God

Part Four: Church and State-and the Sword

Part Five: Should a State turn the other cheek?

Part Six: Q & A on pacifism and the sword

Many translations of the Bible may be read here.

Page Printed from: http://www.americanthinker.com/2006/12/pacifism_and_the_sword_conclus.html

at December 22, 2006 - 01:08:21 PM EST

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/12/5170bf7d-c480-4c81-a238-e8d14b4aa5c0.html

Friday, December 22, 2006

Russia: Energy Analyst Looks At Sakhalin-2 Takeover

Russia -- Construction of Russia’s first liquefied natural gas loading unit, Sakhalin Region, 01Oct2006
Part of the Sakhalin-2 project (file photo)
(TASS)
December 22, 2006 (RFE/RL) -- Anglo-Dutch giant Shell and two Japanese companies have announced they will cede their majority stake in the Sakhalin-2 energy project to Russia's state-controlled natural gas monopoly, Gazprom, for $7.45 billion. Sakhalin-2 is the largest combined oil and natural-gas development in the world. Its passage into state hands has been seen as another successful Kremlin effort to reestablish control over Russia's energy production.

RFE/RL correspondent Jeremy Bransten spoke with Jonathan Stern, director of the gas program at Britain's Oxford Institute For Energy Studies, about the impact the news will have on foreign investment in Russia.

RFE/RL: The Shell-led consortium was under pressure from Russia's environmental-protection authorities, who threatened it with billions of dollars in potential fines for causing ecological damage. Was there any truth, in your opinion, to the charges -- or were they just a pretext to force the consortium to sell its stake to Gazprom, especially after Shell announced huge cost overruns?
Russia holds all the cards in the sense that there is nowhere to go in the world, as far as I'm concerned, which offers the kind of resource opportunities that Russia offers. On the other hand, I think what investors know and knew even before this, is that you're not going to get a majority stake in a project.

Jonathan Stern: We've been hearing about environmental problems from the NGOs for many years. So those of us who followed the project knew about the environmental problems. [Until recently] the Russians did not appear to have taken them on board. What clearly became evident, when the full extent of the cost overrun was understood, was that the position from the Russian side was untenable, which was that they were not going to get any money from this project for a very long time. And that was really the main problem for the Sakhalin-2 partners -- what to do about that situation.

RFE/RL: Can you explain why the cost overrun, from $10 billion to $22 billion, was untenable for Moscow? Was it because it meant the Kremlin realized it wouldn't be making money from Sakhalin-2 for much longer than it had anticipated?

Stern: It appears that the PSA [production-sharing agreement] was of a very old variety, whereby the government got absolutely nothing until all the costs had been recovered. That's an early version of PSAs that mostly is not used anymore. In other words, PSAs still allow for cost overruns, basically saying that if there's a cost overrun, the costs of that will be shared between the partners and the state. This PSA basically appears to say that whatever the costs of the projects are, the state gets nothing until those costs are recovered. And I think that's unacceptable.

RFE/RL: So, in your opinion, Moscow had a case for breaking the deal with the Shell consortium. But do you agree it's part of a pattern in which the Kremlin has tried to reestablish control over the energy sector?

Stern: Having said that, it's absolutely true that the Russian government is determined to gain control over major energy projects on its territory. And the question that we will never know is if there had not been this cost overrun, would the Sakhalin-2 project have suffered a similar fate? We'll never know the answer to that.

RFE/RL: What is the impact going to be on other foreign investors, especially in the energy sector? Will this scare them off?

Stern: I think it sends a warning. But I think if you said to any foreign company: you've got a cost overrun of twice the capital costs of the project, do you think you're going to get problems? The answer would be: well, yes. So for me, Russia holds all the cards in the sense that there is nowhere to go in the world, as far as I'm concerned, which offers the kind of resource opportunities that Russia offers. On the other hand, I think what investors know and knew even before this, is that you're not going to get a majority stake in a project. In fact, you're probably not going to get much more than 30 or 40 percent, if you're lucky and you need a strong Russian partner. And the Russian state, in the end, will call all the shots.

RFE/RL: What about other energy-rich markets around the world? Don't they offer a better deal to investors?

Stern: Once you move outside the North Sea and North America, wherever you want to go: Latin America, the Middle East, CIS countries -- if you can get in -- those are the conditions you're going to face.

RFE/RL: How reliant is Russia going to be on foreign technology to extract oil and natural gas in the future? Some reports say that despite its huge reserves, Russia could run short of natural gas soon, because domestic demand will outstrip supply -- and that it needs Western savvy to tap currently inaccessible reserves.

Stern: I think that's the wrong way to look at the problem. The problem that Gazprom is facing is that it's got excess demand at home, because prices are far too cheap. And like any commodity, if you underprice the commodity, you're going to get excess demand. What they've done, in the last few weeks is to foreshadow a significant increase in domestic prices, which in my view within a couple of years will choke off demand. There's nothing that Western technology can do within a couple of years to dramatically change this situation.

Related Stories About Russia:
# Death Of Turkmen Leader Prompts Integration Hopes, Gas Worries
# Expert Eyes Security Ties Among Siloviki
# The KGB's Post-Soviet 'Commercialization'
# EU In Moscow To Avert Meat Ban
# Investigations Continue In Litvinenko Case
# Did CIA Help Pasternak Win Nobel Prize?

Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty © 2006 RFE/RL, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/12/888236cc-139d-4212-a28d-88451fdaccab.html

Russia: The KGB's Post-Soviet 'Commercialization'

By Victor Yasmann

Russia -- Moscow, building of the KGB and monument of Dzerzhinsky on Lubyanka, 01May1990
Before the fall: KGB headquarters in 1990
(TASS)
December 20, 2006 (RFE/RL) -- Russia today is honoring workers in the state security agencies -- a professional holiday better known by its Soviet-era appellation, "Chekists' Day" -- as the legacy of the KGB grows increasingly commercial -- and criminal.

The mysterious murder of former security officer Aleksandr Litvinenko is once again shedding light on how the Soviet-era KGB has evolved in contemporary Russia.

Before it was disbanded in 1991, the KGB was a massive organization, employing over half a million uniformed officers as well as a network of millions of informers.

A highly disciplined and militarized service, it controlled almost every aspect of life in the USSR and adhered with utmost loyalty to the Communist Party line, even across state borders. Its status and operation was strictly directed by 5,000 party documents.

The 1978 murder of Bulgarian dissident Georgi Markov, for example -- carried out with the use of a ricin pellet lodged in the tip of an umbrella -- was conducted by Bulgaria's secret service with help from the KGB.

The Communist Party had ordered the KGB to contribute their expertise and assist their Bulgarian colleagues in the liquidation of a "personal enemy of the Bulgarian leadership."

Beginning Of The End?

But the KGB monolith could not survive the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was ultimately divided into several new organizations, including the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), the Federal Protection Service (FSO), and the body considered the true KGB successor, the Federal Security Service (FSB).

Many KGB officials evolved into new positions within those bodies. Tens of thousands of others reappeared in positions of political and entrepreneurial power.

The KGB was never officially condemned for its Soviet-era crimes, making it easy for many top security officials to make the transition to the world of politics -- Russian President Vladimir Putin being the most obvious.

Those not in politics have also found numerous ways to make a living -- most notably by opening the private security companies that mushroomed in privatization-era Russia, or by entering the service of the oligarchs, who employed hundreds of former KGB officers to provide both security and intelligence.

Not surprisingly, the largest of these private security groups is the one at the disposal of Russia's aggressive Gazprom monopoly.

Marriage Of Convenience

Observers have dubbed this dubious partnership between business interests and security officers the "privatization of the KGB." At the same time, the official security bodies underwent their own period of "commercialization," launching veterans associations and other charity groups aimed at bolstering state funding for the secret services.

Another example of the growing commercial mind-set of the KGB heirs is their inevitable commingling with Russia's ascendent criminal element. In many areas, the lines between organized crime and the work of security groups has grown gray. In Putin's Russia, there is virtually no administrative or civilian control over security agencies.

This development is a marked change from the Soviet heyday of the KGB, when no less a figure than dissident and Nobel laureate Andrei Sakharov called the agency the only segment of the Soviet elite untouched by corruption.

Today's KGB descendants are, more often than not, divided along commercial or criminal lines. Litvinenko's murder is hardly the first instance of a former or present member of the security community translating their experience into business opportunities -- and putting themselves in harm's way in the process. A few notable examples follow.

The Case Of Anatoly Trofimov

On April 10, 2005 , a masked gunman shot dead retired FSB Colonel General Anatoly Trofimov, the former chief of the FSB's Moscow branch. Trofimov's young wife was also killed in the ambush outside their Moscow home; their 4-year-old daughter survived. Trofimov was the highest-ranking security official to be killed in Russia.

During his career in the KGB/FSB, he specialized in combatting corruption, and led the investigation into a 1996 incident when two men were arrested carrying $500,000 in cash out of the reelection campaign headquarters of President Boris Yeltsin. He was dismissed a year later, after two of his deputies were accused of selling cocaine.

After his murder, FSB investigators claimed the attack was the "likely result of his commercial activity." He was reportedly involved with several private security firms set up by retired KGB officer.

It is interesting to note, however, that Litvinenko described Trofimov as a behind-the-scenes critic of the Kremlin's policies in Chechnya who had opposed the 1998 appointment of Putin as FSB director. Litvinenko suggested Trofimov's murder was politically motivated, because no businessman in Russia would dare attack such a powerful figure from the security organs.

The Case Of Roman Tsepov

Roman Tsepov (TASS file photo) On September 24, 2004, 42-year-old Roman Tsepov, the director of an elite private security company based in St. Petersburg, died of severe radiation sickness brought on by a mysterious substance he had ingested.

The substance has never been clearly identified, but some reports suggest he was fed an experimental poison containing heavy metals or large doses of a drug normally used to treat leukemia and other cancers.

Tsepov rose from the ranks of the Interior Ministry troops to become an extremely influential power broker in St. Petersburg. In the early 1990s, his security firm, Baltik-Eskort, provided protection for the family of the city's mayor, Anatoly Sobchak, and his deputy, Vladimir Putin.

Tsepov maintained close ties with Putin after the latter's move first to the top of the FSB and then into the Kremlin. He also stayed close to Viktor Zolotov -- who was first Sobchak's personal bodyguard and then chief of the presidential security service -- and Rashid Nurgaliyev, an FSB general and Russia's interior minister since 2004.

Tsepov was also given license to act on behalf of the Kremlin in some of its most delicate deals, including talks with beleaguered oil giant Yukos. At some point, however, his work clearly aroused displeasure. The source of the poison and the poisoners themselves have not yet been identified; the investigation continues. However, many trails lead back to Tsepov's myriad business connections -- which included influence in everything from casinos to ports to pharmaceutical companies.

The Case Of Igor Klimov

Oleg Klimov was killed in Moscow on June 6, 2003 (TASS)Igor Klimov, a colonel with the SVR, was shot dead on June 6, 2003, outside his apartment building in downtown Moscow.

Klimov, another close associate of Putin's, was picked by the president to serve as acting general director of the defense contractor Almaz-Antei, one of Russia's largest producers of air-defense systems.

Klimov was killed just weeks before he was due to become the CEO of Almaz-Antei. Many suspected at the time that his death was the result of his efforts to end the diversion or embezzlement of millions of dollars from the firm. Eventually, however, several arrests were made in the case that suggested his death may have been tied to a property battle between criminal organizations.

Related Stories About Russia:
# EU In Moscow To Avert Meat Ban
# Investigations Continue In Litvinenko Case
# Did CIA Help Pasternak Win Nobel Prize?
# German Police Find Radioactive Traces
# American Writers Honor Politkovskaya's Memory
# Berezovsky's Partner Discusses Litvinenko Killing

Other Articles Written By Victor Yasmann:
# Russia: U.S. Elections Unlikely To Affect Relations
# Russia: Kremlin Pursues Special Relationship With Germany
# Russia: The Fiction And Fact Of Empire
# Russia: Kremlin Sets Its Sights On Gambling
# Russia: Moscow's Shifting Policy Toward Georgia
# Georgia: Moscow's Next Step In Spy Row
# Russia: Monarchist Nostalgia Remains Powerful
# Russia: Corruption Scandal Could Shake Kremlin
# Russia: Independence Votes Popular In The Kremlin
# Russia: Race Not The Only Factor Behind Karelian Violence
Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty © 2006 RFE/RL, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/12/d9b0f312-2638-4049-8a96-10f0f807584c.html

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Iraq: Vice President Appeals For More Coalition Troops

By Nikola Krastev

Iraq -- Tariq al-Hashimi (L), one of the leaders in the Iraqi Accordance Front, Jalal Talabani, Iraqi president, at a press conference in Baghdad, 16 Feb. 2006
Al-Hashimi (left) with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani at a Baghdad press conference (file photo)
(RFE/RL)
NEW YORK, December 20, 2006 (RFE/RL) -- Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi has said he remains optimistic about his country's future, despite the spiraling wave of violence, which some already consider a civil war.

Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on December 19, al-Hashimi said he expects a "brand new" strategy from Washington.

He emphasized that U.S. methods so far have often been "counterproductive."

'Excessive Force'

Al-Hashimi -- who heads the Iraqi Islamic Party, a Sunni party that is part of the government -- was especially critical of what he called the U.S. military's heavy-handed tactics:

"The time has come, in fact, to devise a strategy," al-Hashimi said. "The manpower of Al-Qaeda in Iraq does not exceed 1,000. The way the American administration [is confronting] this challenge is so far by using excessive force, by mass [incursions into] innocent peoples' houses. And they are pushing their own people, in fact, to be more extremist. This policy must be changed because it has proved to be counterproductive."

Al-Hashimi met last week with U.S. President George W. Bush at the White House. Al-Hashimi said that during that meeting, he reiterated his view that the Bush administration should honor its commitment to the people of Iraq.

But al-Hashimi said one problem is that in his view, there are too few foreign combat troops in Iraq.

"One of the problems facing the security file in general is the shortage and the incompetent troops in Iraq," al-Hashimi said. "It may be shocking to you when I say that out of 135,000 soldiers within the coalition spectrum, you have only between 20,000 and 25,000 considered as combat soldiers. And the rest, 100,000 coalition forces, are acting only as logistics troops."

Insurgency Or Resistance?

Regrettably, al-Hashimi said, the need to rely on foreign troops to restore order in Iraq is born out of the incompetence and weakness of the Iraqi security forces and army.

Al-Hashimi said a clear distinction should be drawn between what he called Al-Qaeda's agenda in Iraq and the objectives of the insurgents. These forces, he says, must be brought within the political process in the country.

"You call it 'insurgency,' we call it 'resistance,'" he said. "They are very much prepared to contribute and to participate in the political process as long as we offer to them a doable, a workable, a significant project to accommodate them. My message to them in fact over the past weeks [is] that the time [has come], the game is now different. We need them in fact to come to discuss around a table what they need, in which way are they dreaming to be a partner, a contributor in the political process."

Al-Hashimi said that prior to his trip to the United States, he met a several insurgent representatives, who asked him to convey to the U.S. administration their readiness to join the political process.

Related Stories About Iraq:
# Political Parties Consider Uniting Against Al-Sadr
# Kurds Warn Against Delaying Kirkuk Referendum
# Former U.S. Diplomat Urges Cautious Diplomacy
# Journalist Describes Fear Of Militias In Baghdad
# Reactions To U.S. Report Follow Familiar Pattern
# Increased U.S. Involvement In Politics Carries Risks

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/12/b655c8f7-17c7-4230-8bde-e13278d844b6.html

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Russia: Expert Eyes Security Ties Among Siloviki

Russia - (R-L) The border post head Sergei Korobov, chief of the regional boundary management of the FSB Nikolai Lisinsky, Vladimir Putin, the frontier service of the FSB head Vladimir Pronichev and FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev, Yermolovka, 26Sep2006
Headed for lives as 'siloviki'?
(epa)
December 20, 2006 (RFE/RL) -- Russia today celebrates the "day of officials of state security agencies," known in the past as "Chekists' Day." RFE/RL correspondent Claire Bigg takes the opportunity to speak to Olga Kryshtanovskaya, director of the Moscow-based Center for the Study of Elites at the Russian Academy of Sciences, who comments on her findings regarding the strong ties between the security services and the current composition of the Russian government elite.

RFE/RL: Your newly released study shows that 78 percent of Russia's elite show signs of being "siloviki" -- as former military or security service officials are known. Please tell us how you conducted this study.

Olga Kryshtanovskaya: Today, 26 percent of the current Russian elite are people who used to work in military institutions, including secret services. The 78 percent figure comes from my special analysis of the resumes of all those belonging to the Russian elite. A number of them used to work in so-called affiliated structures -- structures that were connected to the KGB during the Soviet era -- and it is fully possible that they too [had ties with the KGB]. But this is not a precise figure.

RFE/RL: How do these figures compare to the number of "siloviki" who held influential posts before Vladimir Putin came to power?

Kryshtanovskaya: Their numbers in power structures appear to have significantly risen. But for obvious reasons, nobody carried out such studies in Soviet times, so comparisons are very difficult. Under [Soviet leader Leonid] Brezhnev, people in epaulettes represented only 3.5 percent of the Central Committee of the Soviet Union's Communist Party. This is significantly less [than today]. But again, no deeper analysis is available.

RFE/RL: During the Soviet era, power structures focused primarily on security issues. To which spheres have the siloviki extended their influence?

Kryshtanovskaya: Most of them work in the sphere of security. But what is new, what emerged toward the end of Brezhnev's rules and intensified under Putin, is the fact that siloviki expanded to spheres that are not traditional for them -- politics and economics, both on a governmental level and in state-related companies.

RFE/RL: Were you surprised by your findings?

Kryshtanovskaya: Yes, I was surprised to find out that there are many siloviki in business circles, on the board of directors of companies connected to the government. This was a surprise for me.

RFE/RL: How is the mounting presence of siloviki among decision makers affecting Russia's course?

Kryshtanovskaya: The current authorities, President Putin and his entourage -- which consists largely of siloviki -- creates a mixed impression. On one hand, a lot of positive things have been done; the country is stable, people are more satisfied with life than they were in the 1990s. On the other hand, however, problems have emerged with regard to the democratic progress. This process has simply stalled, and in some instances it actually reversed.

Signs of the siloviki mindset are now visible both in domestic policy and foreign policy. The current policy is built on the search for enemies. Russia's foreign policy has taken a negative tack. Our population no longer knows who Russia's friends are. We carried out a poll recently. People named Russia's enemies with great enthusiasm, and the United States of course topped the list. But when asked who Russia's friends are, they had difficulties answering and after some hesitations they named only Belarus. This is linked to the mentality of the group of people who craft such policies.

http://www.russiablog.org/

December 20, 2006
Abramovich Resigns as Governor of Chuhotka
Charles Ganske

AbramovichBlueTie.jpg
Roman Abramovich, age 40, is the richest man in Russia

The Moscow Times is reporting today that Roman Abramovich, the richest man in Russia, has resigned as Governor of the Far Eastern region of Chuhotka. Abramovich reportedly wanted to spend more time developing his holdings in the metals business.

In addition to the English Premier Soccer League team Chelsea FC, Mr. Abramovich owns 41% of the Russian aluminum giant Evraz. Last month, Evraz announced plans to purchase Oregon Steel for $2.3 billion. The U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment is reviewing the deal by examining possible ties between Evraz and the Russian government.

Continue reading "Abramovich Resigns as Governor of Chuhotka" »

Posted by Charles Ganske at 3:10 PM | Permalink |

Mr. Abramovich's resignation was accepted this week at the Kremlin by President Putin, who commended him for boosting the economy of the impoverished Far Eastern region. Mr. Abramovich's charities and former company Sibneft have invested hundreds of millions to create new jobs and infrastructure in Chuhotka.

In 2003 Abramovich sold his 25% stake in the Russian aluminum company Rusal to another oligarch, Oleg Deripaska. Abramovich reportedly netted $13 billion after he sold Sibneft to the state-owned gas monopoly Gazprom in 2005. At that time, some Russian energy analysts believed that Sibneft was actually worth more than double that amount. Since then, Abramovich has returned to the metals business, seeking to expand Evraz through aggressive acquisitions abroad, including the purchase of the Vitkovice steel mill in the Czech Republic and a 75% stake in Italy's Palini e Bertoli steel plant. According to Business Week, the Evraz/Oregon Steel deal would combine the leading manufacturers of rails in Russia and the United States.

Earlier this year, Forbes magazine conservatively estimated Roman Abramovich's net worth at $18.2 billion. In October, the UK Daily Mail reported that the 40 year old father of five may be headed for a nasty divorce from his wife Irina over his relationship with a 23 year old Russian model. John Mann, a spokesman for the Abramovich family in Moscow, has denied the reports.

Posted by Charles Ganske on December 20, 2006 3:10 PM

http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/iran-north-korea-dig-in-against-wests-threats/2006/12/22/1166290741087.html

Iran, North Korea dig in against West's threats

IRAN has defied imminent United Nations sanctions over its nuclear
program
and pledged that it will become a member of the nuclear club within
weeks.

North Korea has not been persuaded to give up its nuclear ambitions
either,
during talks in Beijing which ended last night without progress on the
issue
of disarmament.

The UN Security Council was expected to vote on sanctions against Iran
last
night, but Russia criticised key elements of the resolutions on
Thursday,
which could delay the vote until today.

The draft resolution demands that Tehran end all uranium enrichment
work,
which can produce fuel for nuclear power plants as well as for bombs,
and
halt research and development that can make or deliver atomic weapons.

To this end the measure bans the import and export of dangerous
materials
and technology relating to uranium enrichment, reprocessing and
heavy-water
reactors, as well as ballistic missile delivery systems. "The nature of
this
resolution is not capable of pressuring Iran, and Iran will give an
appropriate response to it," said Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran's
Supreme National Security Council, and main negotiator on atomic
issues.
"This behaviour will just create more problems."

In a concession to Russia on Wednesday the Europeans deleted a
mandatory
travel ban and instead told nations to notify a Security Council
sanctions
panel should any of 12 Iranians involved in the country's nuclear and
missile programs travel through their countries.

The Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, on Wednesday reiterated a
prediction that Iran would announce going nuclear in February during
celebrations of the 1979 Islamic revolution against the Shah.

Addressing a rally in western Iran, he said his country's nuclear plans
would inspire others. He revelled in mocking the US President, George
Bush,
and the West.

"Some so-called superpowers . think that they can control the whole
world,"
he said. "I'm telling them: Open your eyes. The world no longer thinks
your
decisions have any value."

His typically outspoken remarks came after Mr Bush said his Iranian
counterpart was out of step with the rest of the world.

Since his surprising election victory last year Mr Ahmadinejad - who
says
Israel should be wiped off the map - has accelerated Iran's nuclear
program,
which Western powers suspect is aimed at producing nuclear weapons in
five
to 10 years.

North Korea has also pursued a nuclear program this year, conducting
its
first nuclear test on October 9. Five days of talks in Beijing,
bringing
together the two Koreas, the US, China, Japan and Russia, have failed
to
convince Pyongyang to disarm in exchange for aid and security
guarantees.
North Korea remains preoccupied with getting US financial restrictions
against it lifted.

The US assistant secretary of state and chief envoy at the talks,
Christopher Hill, said yesterday that he was going home today, and was
unsure about whether talks could resume. "The purpose is
denuclearisation,
so we'll have to evaluate this round in terms of whether we've moved
towards
that goal.

"It all comes down to the question of are they serious, are they acting
responsibly. And I think that question is very much unanswered."

The negotiations were the first in more than a year.

[unknown url]

Ethiopian tanks roll toward Somali battlefront

Ethiopian tanks roll toward Somali battlefront

Reuters

Friday, December 22, 2006

By Hassan Yare

Ethiopian tanks rolled to the battlefront on Friday as Somali Islamists
and Somalia's pro-government troops pounded each other with artillery
and rockets in a fourth day of clashes edging closer to all-out war.

The Islamists said they would send ground troops to attack en masse on
Saturday, as opposed to fighting from a distance with heavy weapons as
the two sides have done so far, ignoring a European peace initiative.

"Our troops have not started to attack. From tomorrow the attack will
start," Islamist deputy spokesman Ibrahim Shukri told a news conference.

Witnesses near the fighting on two fronts near the government's
encircled stronghold of Baidoa in south-central Somalia said they heard the
rumble of armor before dawn.

"I was awakened this morning by heavy sounds of tanks. I woke up and
saw seven Ethiopian tanks heading toward Daynunay," Baidoa resident
Abdullahi Ali told Reuters.

An Islamist fighter near one of the fronts in Daynunay said the tanks
had attacked his unit, and he was awaiting anti-tank weapons to fight
back.

"We can see Ethiopian tanks. They have started firing heavy shells at
us," the fighter, who declined to give his name, told Reuters by
telephone.

The Ethiopian government declined to comment.

If confirmed, the involvement of the tanks in the battle would raise
the stakes in what is already the most sustained combat so far in a fight
many fear could mushroom across the Horn of Africa, sucking in rivals
Eritrea and Ethiopia.

Daynunay is the government's forward military base about 20 km (12
miles) southeast of Baidoa. Ethiopia has said it has military trainers
there, but not combat troops.

The other front, Idaale, is 70 km (44 miles) southwest of Baidoa, a
southern agricultural trading post which is the only town the government
controls.

NEW FRONT?

The Western-backed, but ineffective, government and the Somali Islamic
Courts Council (SICC) say they have killed hundreds of each other's
troops across the brushy flatlands around Baidoa. The figures could not be
independently verified.

Fighting began late on Tuesday, as an SICC deadline for Ethiopian
troops to leave Somalia or face a holy war passed.

By Wednesday night, it was clear the European Union's announcement the
same day that the two sides had agreed to restart peace talks and stop
fighting had begun to ring hollow.

The SICC has taken control of most of southern Somalia by dint of its
military might and imposition of strict sharia law.

Washington and what it considers to be its top counter-terrorism ally
in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia, say the SICC is led by an al Qaeda
cell, which the military-religious movement denies.

The SICC says it has the popular support the government lacks, bringing
law and order to a nation convulsed with anarchy since dictator Mohamed
Siad Barre was ousted in 1991.

The SICC said Ethiopian troops were moving by air and ground toward
Galkaayo, a strategic central Somali town held as a forward defense base
by government-allied Puntland fighters.

"We hope fighting will simultaneously start there too. We call upon the
Somalis to rise up and join in the jihad," SICC Secretary Ibrahim Suley
told reporters.

Ethiopia and Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf, a Puntland native, are
keen to keep the relatively stable, semi-autonomous Puntland region and
its strategic ports out of SICC hands.

A Puntland fighter said by telephone from near Galkaayo: "There is a
lot of troop movement. From the way things are going, fighting can start
any time."

(Additional reporting by Bryson Hull in Nairobi, Guled Mohamed and
Sahal Abdulle in Mogadishu, Ibrahim Mohamed in Jowhar, Somalia)

Copyright © 2006 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

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