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Potential Republican Crack-Up

Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB

For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.

The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.

I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.

There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.

Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.

So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.

However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.

I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."

At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.

I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.

With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.

This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.

With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."

Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.

With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.

These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.

I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.

I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....

But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.

As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.

Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.

If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.


TOPICS: Politics
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To: Dead Corpse; NicknamedBob

I'm following your project plan with interest and feel compelled to note that you may not be the first person to have thought of burying something important underneath that road.

Don't forget to locate underground utilities before you procede. We don't want to see you go and actualize your screen name.


6,041 posted on 08/29/2005 12:42:09 PM PDT by HKMk23 ('Re you gonna eat that?)
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To: HKMk23; Dead Corpse

Good point.

He did say street, so I'm picturing a country road. Even so, it is prudent to avoid utility lines and conduits.

I would ask them to mark the underground utility connections so that you can install ... a fence, yeah, that's it, a fence.


6,042 posted on 08/29/2005 12:58:28 PM PDT by NicknamedBob (I am impervious to insult, being extraordinarily dense, rather like Superman.)
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To: Hi Heels

My first two instructors seemd just fine. This one, is showing signs of being a flake.


6,043 posted on 08/29/2005 1:14:34 PM PDT by Dead Corpse (Never underestimate the will of the downtrodden to lie flatter.)
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To: NicknamedBob
We are talking about a 30' tunnel under a two lane rural road. A stiff breeze would change every molecule of air in said tunnel quite handily.

Click here...

Find the green bar of corn in the center of this photo. Those 5-6 houses on the left side of the road are directly across the street from my in-laws property. If you knew what you were looking at, you could find my Camaro sitting out back by the field. The big white mass just south of that green horizontal bar is the in-laws house and the concrete flower garden my father in law built.

6,044 posted on 08/29/2005 1:29:18 PM PDT by Dead Corpse (Never underestimate the will of the downtrodden to lie flatter.)
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To: HKMk23

Yeah... they've already marked out where all the utilities are at due to the "new" houses across the road. "New" being within the last couple of years.


6,045 posted on 08/29/2005 1:30:44 PM PDT by Dead Corpse (Never underestimate the will of the downtrodden to lie flatter.)
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To: Dead Corpse; Monkey Face; sionnsar; NicknamedBob; Darksheare; HKMk23; Hi Heels

Hello everyone.

Day 2 of vacation here.

It's totally hot and humid here, with a thunder storm brewing.
I dropped off #2 kid at the movies, and have to go get him around 5:30.

I'm trying to decide what to do with the time, and I'm thinking a loaf of banana bread would be nice, but for the heat it would add to the house...no A/C.


6,046 posted on 08/29/2005 1:31:29 PM PDT by fanfan (" The liberal party is not corrupt " Prime Minister Paul Martin)
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To: fanfan

Ugh. Don't like hot & humid. We had a touch of that, but last night's rainfall improved things a bit.


6,047 posted on 08/29/2005 1:36:18 PM PDT by sionnsar (†trad-anglican.faithweb.com† || (To Libs:) You are failing to celebrate MY diversity! || Iran Azadi)
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To: sionnsar

You have A/C?

I know I really shouldn't bake, but I just yesterday bought a bag of over ripe bananas for the bread, and if I leave them too long, they will be mush.

I don't think the humidity is supposed to let up until Wed. at the earliest. Right now we are getting the air that was over the southern US, before Katrina hit.
Katrina is supposed to be here sometime on Wed.


6,048 posted on 08/29/2005 1:45:37 PM PDT by fanfan (" The liberal party is not corrupt " Prime Minister Paul Martin)
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To: fanfan
I got very confused there for a bit about Katrina, checked and found it was Hi Heels on vacation at the Grand Canyon.

I remember midwest summers (I grew up in Michigan) and don't miss them much. Or at least I remember the worst of summer -- lying reversed on my bed with my head by the window to catch the breeze from the downstairs fan, hot and sticky...

No, like the vast majority of Seattle houses we don't have A/C. It would only be "needed" (for complete comfort) for a few days at most. This year we haven't retreated to the basement even once. So far.

6,049 posted on 08/29/2005 2:04:51 PM PDT by sionnsar (†trad-anglican.faithweb.com† || (To Libs:) You are failing to celebrate MY diversity! || Iran Azadi)
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To: fanfan

I was going to make pasticchio, but my hamburger is frozen...and it's 103 out. But not humid. Maybe I'll do it in the morning...


6,050 posted on 08/29/2005 2:05:12 PM PDT by Monkey Face (If love is blind, why is lingerie so popular?)
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To: sionnsar
You should have seen my daughter. Coming into the canyon, you can't see it until you're basically at the rim. We walked right up to it before she saw it. She was totally awestruck. Fifteen years old and put out her hand and said, "is it a painting?"....

Any time you're feeling you need a little "what is this country coming to" medication, I recommend a trip to the Grand Canyon.....

6,051 posted on 08/29/2005 2:30:45 PM PDT by Hi Heels (Guns kill and cause crime? Dang, mine must be malfunctioning....)
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To: Hi Heels
LOL. Reminds me of when we had a Japanese exchange student. Quite unflappable, took it all in stride until, one weekend, we went camping at Kings Canyon / Sequoia National Park. Heading up there he was lost in his Walkman, until we came around a bend and there was the first of the giant sequoias. We got his attention and he looked...

"HUNH!"

6,052 posted on 08/29/2005 2:36:30 PM PDT by sionnsar (†trad-anglican.faithweb.com† || (To Libs:) You are failing to celebrate MY diversity! || Iran Azadi)
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To: sionnsar

oh oh oh.... I got a foreign exchange student story!!! We had a little lady from Sweden spend a semester with us. Next door we had a friend who owned a gigantic python. We're talking 18 feet. Ozzy. Fed Ozzy rabbits. Anyway, I heard her on the phone one day.... "yes, it's lovely here. The family is real nice. The weather is hot, but the ocean is beautiful. They sure have some BIG SNAKES here, though." I thought, WHAT SNAKE? Then she showed me the BIG SNAKE out on the front porch....... There's old OZZY sunning himself under my porch swing....


6,053 posted on 08/29/2005 2:45:22 PM PDT by Hi Heels (Guns kill and cause crime? Dang, mine must be malfunctioning....)
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To: Hi Heels

LOL!!!!


6,054 posted on 08/29/2005 3:03:29 PM PDT by sionnsar (†trad-anglican.faithweb.com† || (To Libs:) You are failing to celebrate MY diversity! || Iran Azadi)
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To: sionnsar; Hi Heels

Hi Heels caused Katrina?

Huh?

So it's dry-ish in Seattle?

I learn more about North American weather from you folks!
I love it! :-)
Thanks.


6,055 posted on 08/29/2005 4:19:37 PM PDT by fanfan (" The liberal party is not corrupt " Prime Minister Paul Martin)
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To: Monkey Face
Hi!

pasticchio

What kind of dish is it?

6,056 posted on 08/29/2005 4:22:14 PM PDT by fanfan (" The liberal party is not corrupt " Prime Minister Paul Martin)
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To: Hi Heels

That's nice.

What a moment. :-)


6,057 posted on 08/29/2005 4:24:28 PM PDT by fanfan (" The liberal party is not corrupt " Prime Minister Paul Martin)
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To: fanfan

It's a ritzy macaroni and cheese, and depending on who you speak with, it's either Italian or Greek. It's yummy. Made with parmesan and has a layer of hamburger in a tomato/cinnamon sauce. It's a little work, but it's worth it.


6,058 posted on 08/29/2005 4:25:43 PM PDT by Monkey Face (If love is blind, why is lingerie so popular?)
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To: Monkey Face

Mmmmm.

That sounds great.

Cinnamon, eh? Hmmm.

I put that in the Banana bread today, but I haven't tasted it yet.
My son loves cinnamon. :-)


6,059 posted on 08/29/2005 4:30:25 PM PDT by fanfan (" The liberal party is not corrupt " Prime Minister Paul Martin)
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To: fanfan

Not to mention that cinnamon is good for controlling your blood sugar. Cinnamon is delicious in cocoa, and I love cinnamon rolls frosted with chocolate. (Called Persians.)


6,060 posted on 08/29/2005 4:34:16 PM PDT by Monkey Face (If love is blind, why is lingerie so popular?)
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