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Potential Republican Crack-Up

Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB

For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.

The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.

I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.

There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.

Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.

So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.

However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.

I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."

At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.

I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.

With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.

This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.

With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."

Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.

With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.

These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.

I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.

I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....

But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.

As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.

Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.

If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.


TOPICS: Politics
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To: Dead Corpse

LOL!
That face is better than a cup of coffee!


6,021 posted on 08/29/2005 9:05:56 AM PDT by Monkey Face (If love is blind, why is lingerie so popular?)
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To: Dead Corpse
"... and build a tunnel under the street to the In-laws property."

I've got a cool design for a rig to get that tunnel built. Safely, too.

You might not like it. It would be a boring job.

6,022 posted on 08/29/2005 9:06:09 AM PDT by NicknamedBob (I am impervious to insult, being extraordinarily dense, rather like Superman.)
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To: Tax-chick
I don't know about that. Got an 80% on the last paper I handed in because I followed my idiot professors instructions. Then she graded me down for it. I wrote her a rather bland "nasty-gram" e-mail whose subtleties will probably go right over her head.

I even cited from her own example paper and seminar quotations.

She hasn't exactly been the best instructor I've ever had.

6,023 posted on 08/29/2005 9:07:25 AM PDT by Dead Corpse (Never underestimate the will of the downtrodden to lie flatter.)
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To: Monkey Face

I should probably expend some effort to find out who it is. Give them proper credit.


6,024 posted on 08/29/2005 9:08:02 AM PDT by Dead Corpse (Never underestimate the will of the downtrodden to lie flatter.)
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To: NicknamedBob

N'yuck N'yuck...


6,025 posted on 08/29/2005 9:08:30 AM PDT by Dead Corpse (Never underestimate the will of the downtrodden to lie flatter.)
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To: Dead Corpse

*snicker*


6,026 posted on 08/29/2005 9:14:33 AM PDT by Hi Heels (Guns kill and cause crime? Dang, mine must be malfunctioning....)
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To: Dead Corpse

Well, better luck next time!


6,027 posted on 08/29/2005 9:16:59 AM PDT by Tax-chick (Oklahoma is the cultural center of the universe ... take me back to Tulsa!)
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To: Dead Corpse

You'd have to do a little welding, and use some hydraulic jacks, but the advantage would be that you could work rather silently.

Care to relocate near a bank?


6,028 posted on 08/29/2005 9:21:28 AM PDT by NicknamedBob (I am impervious to insult, being extraordinarily dense, rather like Superman.)
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To: Tax-chick

Let's see how she responds to me e-mail. I'm not expecting much.


6,029 posted on 08/29/2005 9:26:39 AM PDT by Dead Corpse (Never underestimate the will of the downtrodden to lie flatter.)
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To: NicknamedBob

Welding, can do. What kind of jacks? House jacks? Or car jacks? No banks out by them. Not unless one of the Johnsons down the road buried a bunch of gold back during the Depression or something similar.


6,030 posted on 08/29/2005 9:27:56 AM PDT by Dead Corpse (Never underestimate the will of the downtrodden to lie flatter.)
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To: Dead Corpse

Just regular car jacks.

The idea is to push a form ahead of you, then reinforce the tunnel with mortar and bricks. The hydraulics are for pushing the form.


6,031 posted on 08/29/2005 9:49:17 AM PDT by NicknamedBob (I am impervious to insult, being extraordinarily dense, rather like Superman.)
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To: NicknamedBob
Ah...

I'd want this fairly big. Enough to drive a snowmobile or ATV through.

6,032 posted on 08/29/2005 9:53:32 AM PDT by Dead Corpse (Never underestimate the will of the downtrodden to lie flatter.)
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To: Dead Corpse

The size you choose is what determines the welding to be done.

On the other hand, you'll need a good supply of bricks, but they don't have to be high-quality. You can used salvaged bricks from demolition projects.

It wouldn't be pretty, but who's going to see it? If you wanted it to be pretty, you could do murals after plastering.

Makes a good storm shelter, wine or root cellar also. Something to keep in mind.


6,033 posted on 08/29/2005 10:03:36 AM PDT by NicknamedBob (I am impervious to insult, being extraordinarily dense, rather like Superman.)
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To: Dead Corpse

I'm picturing fingertip-to-fingertip, in the shape of an upside-down horseshoe, with a flat concrete floor. Tracks are your option.

Shelves, niches, and banchos (benches) are also a possibility, as long as they don't compromise structural integrity.

A ceiling height sufficient to accommodate small fluorescent fixtures, and you're all set.


6,034 posted on 08/29/2005 10:09:26 AM PDT by NicknamedBob (I am impervious to insult, being extraordinarily dense, rather like Superman.)
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To: NicknamedBob

My father in law has a cement mixer and a concrete fetish. I'm sure we could figure something out.


6,035 posted on 08/29/2005 11:39:40 AM PDT by Dead Corpse (Never underestimate the will of the downtrodden to lie flatter.)
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To: Dead Corpse
Just to give you an idea, my daughter was instructed to do a paper on Volcanos. Alternate options were on disc in the form of a .ppt with paper copy extra credit, lots of criteria such as how many words, pictures, etc. Not only did we meet every single criteria, but VISITED a volcano, had ACTUAL photographs, paper AND disc copies clearly marked, drawings BY the child, and she got an F for the project. I go in and start the screaming. Teacher says, "what report? I didn't see a report? hUH?? Who am I?"

Told the counselor that if my daughter EVER has that instructor again, I'll complain to the school board. I caught her at least a dozen times mismarking papers, losing assignments that I gave her myself.... ridiculous. And they want a raise.

6,036 posted on 08/29/2005 11:46:44 AM PDT by Hi Heels (Guns kill and cause crime? Dang, mine must be malfunctioning....)
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To: Dead Corpse

hmmm... I suspect a "present" in that baby's diaper.....


6,037 posted on 08/29/2005 11:48:14 AM PDT by Hi Heels (Guns kill and cause crime? Dang, mine must be malfunctioning....)
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To: Hi Heels; Dead Corpse

Uh, no.

That would be "Outgoing."

As in, "My, you certainly have an outgoing child." -- *choke, gasp*


6,038 posted on 08/29/2005 12:16:10 PM PDT by NicknamedBob (I am impervious to insult, being extraordinarily dense, rather like Superman.)
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To: Dead Corpse
"My father in law has a cement mixer and a concrete fetish. I'm sure we could figure something out."

I foresee an excellent sales job, resulting in Father-in-law footing the costs of the whole project. (And a certain individual whose initials are DC doing most of the work.)

Sales points; storm shelter, root cellar, security "backup" position, storage, food pantry, emergency exits, blackout haven, work area, ...

Other thoughts -- the ATV access could also be a way of moving stuff in or out during construction. If you want to not fill up the airspace with noxious fumes, remove the fuel and the spark plugs from the ATV, and "run" it on the starter, (short spins down the tunnel and back should not overstress it.)

Or possibly arrange another twelve volt motor to be the power plant for the tractor. You could rig a little cart with a twelve volt motor and reverse current to change direction. Ana would love it.

You might want to keep this project secret if you can. It would add to its security function to be so.

Natural gas available in that area?

6,039 posted on 08/29/2005 12:29:13 PM PDT by NicknamedBob (I am impervious to insult, being extraordinarily dense, rather like Superman.)
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To: Hi Heels

I admire your restraint. I think I'd have opted for an on-the-spot demo of ancient Egyptian mummification practices. "And this hook was inserted into the cranium through the nose, like...SO, to extract the brain...uh, ahem...to extract the, uh...the... Alright, moron! Just how am I going to demonstrate reoving your brain for preservation in this jar, here, if YOU don't have one, huh?! Geesh! Not only can't you teach, you can't even do a good cadaver imitation!"

Some people have just missed their calling. The utility companies could really put them to good use. Just stand them in dirt up to their ankles alonside the highway and have them hold wires up over their heads.


6,040 posted on 08/29/2005 12:39:50 PM PDT by HKMk23 ('Re you gonna eat that?)
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