Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB
For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.
The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.
I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.
There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.
Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.
So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.
However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.
I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."
At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.
I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.
With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.
This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.
With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."
Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.
With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.
These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.
I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.
I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....
But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.
As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.
Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.
If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.
OK...we can do beer!
It works. My favorite is champagne and steak but my budget says beer and hamburger.
I'd like to try some of that Canadian beer...I hear it will knock your socks off.
Ever had a Bloody Caesar?
No, but coming from the Intermountain West, I cut my eye teeth on Coors. It wasn't available in a lot of places, but we managed. I like Coors Light, too.
Welp, I guess I'l have to save my pennies and make a trip to Canada, then...;o]
Or you could meet me in Dallas next January.
I could get some Canadian beer at the duty free, on the way out, and we could have a taste testing at my hotel. ;-)
Wow. Dallas, huh? I just moved OUT of TX...Well, let me think about it. I will have to make some arrangements.
It is mid January.
I could bring a winter coat for you if you think it might be too cold.
;-)
LOL!
If it's cold enough, I'll bring my fur!
One thing I have is plenty of "coats" for all different climates. Living in Las Vegas as long as I did, I learned it can be 20 below zero in the winter with a wind chill, and 117 in the summer. I always carried a jacket, an umbrella, and a crossword puzzle book everywhere I went. ;o]
20 below in Vegas?
I know they use alot of airconditioning in those hotels...you gotta get outside more.
LOL
You left out "Sex after 60"
There was a reason for that...it doesn't apply to me...;o]
Yah, when the north wind blows in the winter, it can be so cold that the homeless freeze to death by the dozens. And I don't gamble and am allergic to cigarette smoke, so I never went into the casinos, anyway.
Wow. I've always thought about Vegas as being hot.
:-)
It's a desert. It can bake you in the daytime and freeze you at night. Winters are "mild" but folks who have been there for a few years know it can be nasty in the winter.
I always tell people to bring at least one pair of jeans, a long-sleeved T-shirt and a medium weight jacket as well as thick socks. People in Vegas use anti-freeze to keep their cars from boiling over in the summer and freezing the block in the winter.
Nevada is actually the most mountainous state in the country. If you look at a topigraphical map, you will see is is one mountain range after another, running north and south, from one side of the state to the other. It funnels the wind (year round) so that the valley is subject to winds that just continue to circulate around the valley bowl until they finally subside.
Sometimes, the wind will blow for a week or more at a time, and that is when people start getting stupid and the crimes against people and property increase, and everything you touch will give you a shock.
I like the heat there, and the rainfall is only 3" a year. But the dust is not good for contact lens wearers. And some days, it's so hot that planes can't fly until the sun goes down. Windshield blow out because of the heat in an enclosed car. People keep a little extra padding handy so they can open the car door without burning their fingers.
And the rain causes flash flooding that is so bad that whole areas of the valley are closed and homes will wash away. In winter, your pipes can freeze and break because people don't know to winterize.
Anything else you want to know? Crime rate, pollution, etc.?
You are a font of wisdom and cheer today, 'Face.
I know about desert climates. Winter and Summer in a day.
Yepper...I didn't mean to steal your thunder, Bob...but one of us lived there for 20 years...;o]
Actually, I'm not doing too badly today. Or, at least, I wasn't. I went out and got some sun, and that was the highlight of the day. Until you appeared, that is....
What if we simply launched the spuds through a cascade of cheese and into a gravy-laden catcher's mitt?
Call them "Pommes de terre a la Johnny Bench."
"... the highlight of the day. Until you appeared, that is..."
Aw, go on ... you flatter me...(Wait a minute, lemme re-write that...)
Aw, you flatter me ... go on!
It seems lately, you're coming online just as I'm heading for bed and I really do miss you.
Your sense of humor is acute, as usual!
:o]
Yummmmmmmmm!
When will these be ready for human consumption, pray, tell?
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