Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB
For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.
The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.
I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.
There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.
Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.
So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.
However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.
I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."
At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.
I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.
With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.
This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.
With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."
Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.
With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.
These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.
I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.
I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....
But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.
As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.
Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.
If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.
Stuff happening in another place.
So what are YOU like today KP?
Good I hope?
Cancer at age 78. Doubtful. The kinds of cancer I am likely to get are mostly curable now. A lot has happened in medical technology in the last 40 years. The next 40 years will most likely be no less amazing.
it says I'll die of cancer sometime around 85.1 years of age.
Since there is no significant history of cancer in my family, even among life-long smokers, I'm thinking they gave up and took a potshot.
the #1 cause of death in my genetic lineage is old-age following a moderate length decline (including multiple strokes) after a very long active life (average: 90 years)
Cancer at 85. I dunno. Only one incident of same in my family, and both maternal grandparents and their siblings, those who lived past childhood), all lived well into their 90s. My father's side was not so long lived, but I still think it was the forced retirement at 70 that killed my paternal grandfather; he loved his work (professor). My father is now considerably older than that, still working, and enjoying it all.
I'm doing well, thanks.
rebuilding my endurance rapidly (but VERY cautiously) and puttering about the house doing some badly needed cleaning.
Endurance?
What?
I've been out of the loop....(hanging out with those bad kids and moving again and stuff)
You sick?
Need anything?
*smacking forehead*
d'oh!
I was REALLY sick about a week ago.
white-blood count up to 21,000 (way into the "critically high" range)
what's with this "churchie" and "bad kids" business?
did some rough fudgerey and it appears the ducted fan I'm looking at (68mm diameter five-blade fan, 93mm OD intake ring) is about 45mm OAL
Eeeewwww!
Not good!
Truly take it easy!
oh I *am*
also antibiotics.
as of yesterday, my WBC was in the 13Ks and falling back into the normal (under 10K) range quite nicely.
"Churchie" is "churchillbuff", an obnoxious poster who finally got her butt banned.
(Always a downer...Darks knows more than me and had made a bit of a "pet" of her)
The Bad Kids refers to a couple of other sites I've been seen at and participate in. It's a euphamism.
-Email me if you really want to know.
yes, my Mac is wearing a condom!
:-)
Glad to hear it!
Keep doing whatever you are doing!
I know.
Don't worry about it.
My only 'problem' was with the troll, and that's over with.
*sigh*
Short form: Churchillbuff posted a thread saying the war was 'futile', and it got pulled.
They were told not to post it again, but did anyway.
Churchy got spanked, and a bunch of opportunists jumped into the thread, and one guy - G32 - took the opportunity to pull out the old statement of "You're being fleeced!"
And, it boiled over to another site.
And, Tia is getting flack for her association with myself.
I also suspect Palo Verde is getting flack as well.
Well, you have some more mail, and we can take it "out on the porch" if you prefer.
Naah.
Like I said, don't worry about it.
Been a rough past couple days on my end, and I'm probably frazzled.
So probably you should just ignore anything I'm saying at the moment.
:-/ *urk?*
wow...you go away for less than a day and look what happens around here.....
Darksheare wrote:
Short form: Churchillbuff posted a thread saying the war was 'futile', and it got pulled.
They were told not to post it again, but did anyway.
Churchy got spanked, and a bunch of opportunists jumped into the thread, and one guy - G32 - took the opportunity to pull out the old statement of "You're being fleeced!"
And, it boiled over to another site.
And, Tia is getting flack for her association with myself.
I also suspect Palo Verde is getting flack as well.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.