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Potential Republican Crack-Up

Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB

For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.

The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.

I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.

There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.

Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.

So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.

However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.

I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."

At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.

I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.

With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.

This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.

With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."

Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.

With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.

These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.

I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.

I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....

But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.

As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.

Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.

If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.


TOPICS: Politics
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To: Monkey Face

im alright, just thought i'd pop in and say hi, how are u??


5,401 posted on 08/23/2005 9:30:48 PM PDT by Stellar Dendrite ( Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance and the gospel of envy. -Churchill)
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To: Stellar Dendrite

(Your bio page is a real hoot!)

I'm Fine, SD. And you?
Life is pretty good when I have you in my corner! ;o]


5,402 posted on 08/23/2005 9:42:01 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Can I have your beets?)
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To: airborne

Double excellent!


5,403 posted on 08/23/2005 10:26:37 PM PDT by Darksheare (There is a Possum in the works.)
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To: Darksheare

You still here?


5,404 posted on 08/23/2005 10:49:49 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Can I have your beets?)
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To: NicknamedBob; HKMk23; Dawsonville_Doc; Army Air Corps

NNB,
I won't be mass-producing them.
Part of what I'm doing here is learining the old ways. I'm using NO power tools, and trying to do things as traditionally as possible.
The Japanese did not use jigs - I suspect this has as much to do with the fact that each bow is made from uniquely proportioned bamboo, and is made for a specific archer, as it has to do with the fact that jigging up six to eight individually tapered pieces over a 2 meter plus length would be a greater bitch than using cords and shims.

HKMk23,
Yes, it is complex.
Adding to the complexity is the necessary insertion of hardwood plates at the tips, to form the bowstring nocks.
Due to the nature of bamboo, I cannot "machine" the fully laminated bow into the required taper. I simply cannot afford to have the inner pieces be fully square and the outer pieces lose too many full-length fibers - the bamboo would splinter when stressed if I did that. This problem shall also steeply limit the amount of "tillering" I will be able to perform once it is laminated.
I suspect this last is the real reason behind the variable number of rattan "rings" which gird completed bows.

Doc,
Nope. Cured bamboo becomes very pliable when wetted. No steem required. Besides, the recurves are fairly gentle - remember: these bows are over 2 meters long.

ArmyAirCorps,
Yes: It is a GOOD therapy regime.

all,

anybody have any bloody idea where I can get some good dense-grained mulberry wood? the outermost lateral pieces are supposed to be mulberry wood. don't ask me why, cuz I dunno.


5,405 posted on 08/24/2005 4:33:25 AM PDT by King Prout (and the Clinton Legacy continues: like Herpes, it is a gift that keeps on giving.)
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To: NicknamedBob

The current Energy Secretary seems to be a nebbish. Nothing personal, of course ... it may be a clever ruse so we'll underestimate him.


5,406 posted on 08/24/2005 4:42:15 AM PDT by Tax-chick (Oklahoma is the cultural center of the universe ... take me back to Tulsa!)
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To: Monkey Face

D'ohh


5,407 posted on 08/24/2005 4:48:25 AM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (Warning.... Contents under pressure....If you don't like what I say, don't read it !)
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To: NicknamedBob

Excellent choice. Shows that you are da man fo da job


5,408 posted on 08/24/2005 4:49:35 AM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (Warning.... Contents under pressure....If you don't like what I say, don't read it !)
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To: NicknamedBob

You could beat him on looks alone. Add intelligence into the picture and he should just go ahead and give you the keys to his office and leave. No need to wait til 08 or 12, I'll call W today.


5,409 posted on 08/24/2005 4:52:12 AM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (Warning.... Contents under pressure....If you don't like what I say, don't read it !)
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To: Darksheare

I don't give a rat's ass what anyone here or there ( or anywhere else ) says.

You and I are friends, and that's that: I stand by my buddies unles or until they give me cause not to and you never have done that.

And I am glad you still talk to me, DESPITE the fact that I am hanging out with "the bad kids under the street light".


5,410 posted on 08/24/2005 6:21:08 AM PDT by tiamat ("If some guy named Marduk calls, tell him I'm not home! ")
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To: sionnsar

Hi Sionnsar.


I'm Hermione, but I knew I would be.

(SIGH)


Thanks.

(Fun Quiz!)


5,411 posted on 08/24/2005 6:29:38 AM PDT by tiamat ("If some guy named Marduk calls, tell him I'm not home! ")
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To: sionnsar
You scored as Harry Potter. You can be a little reckless and hot-headed at times, but a more brave and courageous friend would be hard to find.

Harry Potter

90%

Albus Dumbledore

80%

Severus Snape

80%

Ginny Weasley

75%

Sirius Black

70%

Draco Malfoy

60%

Ron Weasley

60%

Hermione Granger

55%

Remus Lupin

40%

Lord Voldemort

40%

Your Harry Potter Alter Ego Is...?
created with QuizFarm.com
5,412 posted on 08/24/2005 6:39:46 AM PDT by Dead Corpse (Never underestimate the will of the downtrodden to lie flatter.)
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To: Dead Corpse

Sounds like you!


5,413 posted on 08/24/2005 7:02:45 AM PDT by tiamat ("If some guy named Marduk calls, tell him I'm not home! ")
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To: tiamat

I always thought of myself as more of a Gothy form of Albus. Potter is a bit of a "Golden Child" for my tastes.


5,414 posted on 08/24/2005 7:43:02 AM PDT by Dead Corpse (Never underestimate the will of the downtrodden to lie flatter.)
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To: King Prout

I've got 2 great old mulberry trees in my front yard, but the landlord(and Kay) would take a dim view of me cutting one down...
If you google 'mulberry lumber' I think you'll find several adequate sources.


5,415 posted on 08/24/2005 7:52:50 AM PDT by Dawsonville_Doc (Moving to NC as fast as I can...)
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To: Darksheare

You're about to have mail!


5,416 posted on 08/24/2005 8:02:34 AM PDT by tiamat ("If some guy named Marduk calls, tell him I'm not home! ")
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To: All
http://www.okcupid.com/death: How long will you live?
5,417 posted on 08/24/2005 8:02:38 AM PDT by sionnsar (†trad-anglican.faithweb.com† || (To Libs:) You are failing to celebrate MY diversity || Iran Azadi)
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To: tiamat; Darksheare

huh?


5,418 posted on 08/24/2005 8:33:55 AM PDT by King Prout (and the Clinton Legacy continues: like Herpes, it is a gift that keeps on giving.)
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To: sionnsar
You scored as Albus Dumbledore. Strong and powerful you admirably defend your world and your charges against those who would seek to harm them. However sometimes you can fail to do what you must because you care too much to cause suffering.

Albus Dumbledore

85%

Ron Weasley

75%

Severus Snape

75%

Hermione Granger

75%

Harry Potter

70%

Remus Lupin

70%

Draco Malfoy

70%

Sirius Black

65%

Ginny Weasley

55%

Lord Voldemort

55%

Your Harry Potter Alter Ego Is...?
created with QuizFarm.com
5,419 posted on 08/24/2005 8:40:28 AM PDT by King Prout (and the Clinton Legacy continues: like Herpes, it is a gift that keeps on giving.)
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To: sionnsar
How long will you live?

Nowhere near as long as I want to. I like inhabiting the flesh.

5,420 posted on 08/24/2005 8:43:28 AM PDT by Dead Corpse (Never underestimate the will of the downtrodden to lie flatter.)
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