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Potential Republican Crack-Up

Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB

For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.

The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.

I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.

There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.

Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.

So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.

However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.

I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."

At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.

I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.

With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.

This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.

With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."

Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.

With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.

These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.

I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.

I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....

But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.

As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.

Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.

If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.


TOPICS: Politics
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To: TASMANIANRED

I'm a whenever I have to be person. Worked rotating shifts for two years.


5,241 posted on 08/23/2005 10:38:31 AM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (Warning.... Contents under pressure....If you don't like what I say, don't read it !)
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To: NicknamedBob

That's very good, as always. You've "the knack" for it.

Suggestion for alliterative: try "weave" in place of "spin" in the fourth line of the fourth stanza.


5,242 posted on 08/23/2005 10:40:08 AM PDT by HKMk23 ('Re you gonna eat that?)
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To: MikeinIraq

I have a plan for everything


5,243 posted on 08/23/2005 10:40:29 AM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (Warning.... Contents under pressure....If you don't like what I say, don't read it !)
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To: MikeinIraq

Burnt is bad.


5,244 posted on 08/23/2005 10:40:50 AM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (Warning.... Contents under pressure....If you don't like what I say, don't read it !)
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To: Monkey Face

Feel free to send it. I get a kick out of my ideas getting wide exposure. I once sent an Email to CNN that came back to me from a conservative on the west coast with a string of from and to's a mile long. Evidently a friend of a friend stuff really flies on the internet.


5,245 posted on 08/23/2005 10:44:03 AM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (Warning.... Contents under pressure....If you don't like what I say, don't read it !)
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To: Lady Jag
You are, I take it, a Douglas Adams fan, also?

Here's a link you may enjoy.

5,246 posted on 08/23/2005 10:44:07 AM PDT by HKMk23 ('Re you gonna eat that?)
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To: HKMk23
...and don't miss the Sirius Cybernetics GPP Test

(GPP = Genuine People Personality)

5,247 posted on 08/23/2005 10:55:28 AM PDT by HKMk23 ('Re you gonna eat that?)
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To: HKMk23; Conspiracy Guy

I scored a 17


5,248 posted on 08/23/2005 11:00:49 AM PDT by Laura Earl (Fitness is a journey not a destination.)
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To: Conspiracy Guy

Thanks!

If it comes back to you, don't be surprised!


5,249 posted on 08/23/2005 11:01:42 AM PDT by Monkey Face (Can I have your beets?)
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To: Laura Earl

What sort of appliance are you if you score a 17?


5,250 posted on 08/23/2005 11:03:56 AM PDT by HKMk23 ('Re you gonna eat that?)
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To: HKMk23

LOL!!!!

Your Personality Coefficient score is 22.

Joy. Life brings you deep, deep joy. The mere act of existence sends shivers of pleasure running down your spine. The simplest acts give you the kind of ecstatic pleasure that would make normal individuals explode.

Sirius Cybernetics Corporation feels that your personality would be ideally suited to being a Door.


5,251 posted on 08/23/2005 11:06:31 AM PDT by Monkey Face (Can I have your beets?)
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To: HKMk23
Your Personality Coefficient score is 17.

You are perky, chipper, and always ready to help out with advice in a crisis. You will do anything to make your friend's lives easier, but tend not to prioritise tasks well. Most people despise you, as you have absolutely no concept of when to keep your mouth shut.

Sirius Cybernetics Corporation feels that your personality would be ideally suited to being a Shipboard Computer.

5,252 posted on 08/23/2005 11:06:34 AM PDT by HKMk23 ('Re you gonna eat that?)
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To: HKMk23

Onboard computer


5,253 posted on 08/23/2005 11:08:06 AM PDT by Laura Earl (Fitness is a journey not a destination.)
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To: HKMk23

Make that shipboard computer.


5,254 posted on 08/23/2005 11:11:12 AM PDT by Laura Earl (Fitness is a journey not a destination.)
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To: Laura Earl
Take two...

Your Personality Coefficient score is 15.

You are completely indifferent to the needs of people around you. You prefer to stick precisely to your programmed routines, in the faith that these are the best possible course of action in any circumstance. Even impending doom.

Sirius Cybernetics Corporation feels that your personality would be ideally suited to being a Nutrimatic Beverage Machine.

5,255 posted on 08/23/2005 11:11:20 AM PDT by HKMk23 ('Re you gonna eat that?)
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To: HKMk23

My description was:

You are perky, chipper, and always ready to help out with advice in a crisis. You will do anything to make your friend's lifes easier, but tend to not prioritize tasks well. Most people despise you, as you have absolutely no concept of when to keep your mouth shut.


5,256 posted on 08/23/2005 11:13:18 AM PDT by Laura Earl (Fitness is a journey not a destination.)
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To: HKMk23
"Suggestion for alliterative: try "weave" in place of "spin" in the fourth line of the fourth stanza."

You mean this one:

Every day as we dance, through our pirouette style,
We lay out our moments like a gossamer mile,
Of thin silken fibers of dreams and intent,
As we spin our life’s work in the days that we’ve spent.


Originally, I had it structured in much the way you suggested...

Every day as we dance, through our pirouette style,
We spin out our moments like a gossamer mile,
Of thin silken fibers of dreams and intent,
As we weave out life’s work in the days that we’ve spent.

I changed it when I decided to let there be only one "Weaver." But I like the euphony of "spin" and "spent," as well.

I wouldn't say "agonize" is the correct word, but I do ponder different ways of expressing the thoughts. I tinker with them a bit, but I've learned to not mess around with them too much. That somehow seems disrespectful to the original inspiration.

You have a good appreciation for the structure involved. I look forward to seeing more of your work.

5,257 posted on 08/23/2005 11:23:23 AM PDT by NicknamedBob (I am impervious to insult, being extraordinarily dense, rather like Superman.)
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To: HKMk23
Lots of stuff there! Thanks for the link.

One of my sigfiles is "Googolplex Star Thinker of the Seventh Galaxy of Light and Ingenuity." I used it for a bit back with the movie was released but reviews were so bad, I didn't go see it.
5,258 posted on 08/23/2005 11:24:01 AM PDT by Lady Jag (The Goat-Vendor of Hamelin, and Expounder of Troll Logic)
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To: Laura Earl

I got exactly the same thing with a score of 17.


5,259 posted on 08/23/2005 11:39:27 AM PDT by Hi Heels (Guns kill and cause crime? Dang, mine must be malfunctioning....)
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To: Laura Earl
Your Personality Coefficient score is 19.

You are perky, chipper, and always ready to help out with advice in a crisis. You will do anything to make your friend's lives easier, but tend not to prioritise tasks well.

Most people despise you, as you have absolutely no concept of when to keep your mouth shut.

Sirius Cybernetics Corporation feels that your personality would be ideally suited to being a Shipboard Computer.

Well! That can't be correct. I know exactly when to be quiet. You don't catch me running off at the mouth when there are decisions to be made. I am always the soul of contrition and decorum. It's utterly rediculous to assert that I would be overly voluble or argumentative, I object to this assessment in the strongest terms -- I demand a rematch! You can't treat me this way. Who do they think they are, anyway? Silence in the face of such arrogant effrontery is absolutely inconceivable and ... Oh ....

That's what they said, isn't it?

5,260 posted on 08/23/2005 11:41:39 AM PDT by NicknamedBob (I am impervious to insult, being extraordinarily dense, rather like Superman.)
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