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Potential Republican Crack-Up

Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB

For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.

The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.

I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.

There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.

Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.

So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.

However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.

I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."

At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.

I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.

With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.

This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.

With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."

Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.

With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.

These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.

I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.

I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....

But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.

As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.

Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.

If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.


TOPICS: Politics
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To: Hi Heels
YES!
5,001 posted on 08/22/2005 8:57:20 AM PDT by Hi Heels (Guns kill and cause crime? Dang, mine must be malfunctioning....)
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To: Hi Heels

LOL! Congrats.

That'll teach me to divert my attention to work.


5,002 posted on 08/22/2005 8:57:58 AM PDT by Not A Snowbird (Official RKBA Landscaper and Arborist, Duchess of Green Leafy Things)
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To: SandyInSeattle
*snicker*.... I've NEVER gotten a good number before.

Now I have enough memories to last my entire lifetime....

5,003 posted on 08/22/2005 9:06:37 AM PDT by Hi Heels (Guns kill and cause crime? Dang, mine must be malfunctioning....)
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To: Conspiracy Guy

You sure start early.


5,004 posted on 08/22/2005 9:06:56 AM PDT by TASMANIANRED (Conservatives are from Earth. Liberals are from Uranus.(c))
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To: Hi Heels

Black Walnut trees are as big a nuisance as Sicamore Trees.


5,005 posted on 08/22/2005 9:11:36 AM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (Warning.... Contents under pressure....If you don't like what I say, don't read it !)
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To: King Prout

Don't try to kill them. It is futile and if you get any of the fruit it is worth having them.


5,006 posted on 08/22/2005 9:12:34 AM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (Warning.... Contents under pressure....If you don't like what I say, don't read it !)
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To: Conspiracy Guy

Mine are beautifully clipped and fertilized.....


5,007 posted on 08/22/2005 9:13:03 AM PDT by Hi Heels (Guns kill and cause crime? Dang, mine must be malfunctioning....)
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To: Tax-chick

The neighborhood association asked me to tarp it. ; )


5,008 posted on 08/22/2005 9:13:22 AM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (Warning.... Contents under pressure....If you don't like what I say, don't read it !)
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To: tuliptree76

http://www.amiannoyingornot.com/(ymjpqz55g023cq550mgwrzqd)/quiz4.aspx

Points: 93
Our professional examination has accurately assessed you as being an annoying person. Your peers don't respect you, but you get a great deal of empathy from them. Now that you are aware of your little problem, take some time each day to try and correct it. Team Annoy's Bruce advises "Choose a friend who is equally as annoying as you and practice being 'not annoying' to each other. The people who deal with you on a day-to-day basis will notice a difference within weeks and may even invite you out to lunch to celebrate your progress."


5,009 posted on 08/22/2005 9:14:38 AM PDT by Monkey Face (Can I have your beets?)
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To: TASMANIANRED

I get in my office around 6 am after a 40 minute commute.


5,010 posted on 08/22/2005 9:14:40 AM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (Warning.... Contents under pressure....If you don't like what I say, don't read it !)
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To: Hi Heels

The dang things can grow on the moon. Hopefully you haven't created a super mutant that will take over the neighborhood.


5,011 posted on 08/22/2005 9:17:00 AM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (Warning.... Contents under pressure....If you don't like what I say, don't read it !)
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To: King Prout

You mean muscadine? As in grapes?


5,012 posted on 08/22/2005 9:43:54 AM PDT by Dawsonville_Doc (Moving to NC as fast as I can...)
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To: Conspiracy Guy
This is a four foot high bush sculpted in a square pattern to match the shrub next to it (an evergreen) amidst the drought resistant plants scattered throughout the church gardens next to the fountain..... There are at least two that have been identified as Walnut sprouts. The walnut tree is 1/2 acre away from the two sprouts. There's a fricking parking lot between the tree and the sprouts! Now I suspect the hedges lining the windows next to the diningroom. There are 8 of them.
5,013 posted on 08/22/2005 9:48:20 AM PDT by Hi Heels (Guns kill and cause crime? Dang, mine must be malfunctioning....)
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To: Conspiracy Guy
This is a four foot high bush sculpted in a square pattern to match the shrub next to it (an evergreen) amidst the drought resistant plants scattered throughout the church gardens next to the fountain..... There are at least two that have been identified as Walnut sprouts. The walnut tree is 1/2 acre away from the two sprouts. There's a fricking parking lot between the tree and the sprouts! Now I suspect the hedges lining the windows next to the diningroom. There are 8 of them.
5,014 posted on 08/22/2005 9:48:21 AM PDT by Hi Heels (Guns kill and cause crime? Dang, mine must be malfunctioning....)
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To: Hi Heels

Squirrels are good Walnut Tree Farmers.


5,015 posted on 08/22/2005 9:56:26 AM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (Warning.... Contents under pressure....If you don't like what I say, don't read it !)
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To: Monkey Face

Quiz Results
Points: 80
The experts in the AmIAnnoying.com Quiz Department have determined that you are not annoying. That's nice, but what the hell are you then? You're not a monkey either. Nor are you a mango or a vile of crack. So what are you? Team Annoy's Bruce says: "I'm stumped."
Time Spent: 2:40


5,016 posted on 08/22/2005 10:02:54 AM PDT by Hi Heels (Guns kill and cause crime? Dang, mine must be malfunctioning....)
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To: King Prout

I hadn't even turned on the computer when you made that post...Thanks for the wake-up, though.

I hope you're feeling better today. :o]


5,017 posted on 08/22/2005 10:05:31 AM PDT by Monkey Face (Can I have your beets?)
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To: Hi Heels

I dunno if you're like me, but I lied like all get-out to get that score!


5,018 posted on 08/22/2005 10:08:51 AM PDT by Monkey Face (Can I have your beets?)
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To: All

WBC as of 830am today: 13.2 (13,200)
still high, but only a little.

hella improved over previous counts of 20.6 and 21.0.

looks like I'm on the mend, folks.


5,019 posted on 08/22/2005 10:13:43 AM PDT by King Prout (and the Clinton Legacy continues: like Herpes, it is a gift that keeps on giving.)
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To: King Prout

Whew! That's great news!


5,020 posted on 08/22/2005 10:15:52 AM PDT by Monkey Face (Can I have your beets?)
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