Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB
For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.
The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.
I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.
There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.
Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.
So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.
However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.
I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."
At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.
I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.
With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.
This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.
With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."
Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.
With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.
These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.
I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.
I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....
But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.
As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.
Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.
If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.
Been kinda exciting here, too.
That's why I'm FReeping instead of sleeping, and I'm supposed to take a trip tomorrow later today.
NNB - stop it! you're making my brain huuuuuurrrrrt!!!
Darks - that about sums it up.
I reckon it is now time to go offline and call Dell's Helpful Hindus...
Sorry about that.
Tech support call.. good luck!
The divisions have been clear for decades in terms of nationalistic (also reflected in the militant anti-Communism of the "Reagan coalition" in the 1950s-1980s) vs. internationalist/globalist (particularly Northeast Liberal RINOs like W), who are always ready to "cut a deal" with state terrorists (China). The nationalists are for less porous borders, free trade (not managed "open markets" allowing monopolistic predators to manipulate markets and currencies, that is, masquerading as "free"), anti-socialism (with the current GOP passing bills promoting government spending like drunken communists these days [not just in Congress, just take a look in many states and town governments -- it is totally out of control almost everywhere one looks]), courts that actually follow the rule of law (some in the GOP want the same lawless courts, particularly when it comes to sentencing, police-state powers, etc., that is, besides the abortion issue), and a foreign policy reflecting national interests rather than crusades for "global democracy" (e.g., focusing on North Korea instead of Iraq). The nationalistic "conservative" faction is what Savage, Buchanan, American Free Press, Birchers, anti-NWO milieu, anti-NeoCons, etc., talk about and appeal to. It is the remnants of the ideologically-motivated Reaganites who have ALREADY BROKEN WITH THE GOP on major issues -- the drift towards division has already begun, and will accelerate as we move farther away from 9/11 and towards the next presidential election cycle. Examples, include: Scalia ripped the Admin a new one with a historic dissent in Hamdi. Buchanan has been critical in his way. Savage has also been constantly ripping the WH and propagandists for the Admin. Old Reagan coalition stalwarts inside the Beltway have taken to ripping the Administration. Of course, many on the nativist right, AFP, Birchers, etc., have long been critical of the New World Order loving monarchy.
When Savage talks about BORDERS AND CULTURE he is also outlining the dividing line within the Republican party. The author of this work seems to be pointing that out, but asserting that somehow Evangelicals are the driving force. Far from it. It is not the divisions of faith driving it, but more fundamental and BINDING concerns against the demands of internationalist elites across our country (shaping attitudes of those who just happen to include substantial numbers of Evangelicals). Who was it that published a survey indicating that a large minority of people here in the U.S., including non-immigrants, no longer even really BELIEVE in borders and Western civilization as superior to all others? That group includes many rINOs, including those who support the likes of Condy Rice - AND many Evangelicals.
Uh oh! Don't fall asleep at the wheel.
Did you check your FReepmail today?
Oops, yes I did. Everything I saw looked very nice.
Congratulations on Winston's promotion. I'm sure he'll be more productive in his big new office.
I'm going to have to run now, you folks hold the fort for a few days.
I'll check in if I can.
Have a good trip, Bob!
I'm glad you're feeling better KP. Good luck with your computer. I'm going to get some sleep. Good night.
I really need to start replying to some of your pings.
:(
There, there.
it was a bent f***ing PIN on the ribbon cable connector
*scuffing floor sheepishly*
all things now working fine.
but it lasted so long, and performed so well, and satisfied so many...
We can rebuild it.
We have the technology.
We can make it better than it was before.
Better...stronger...faster...ok, scratch faster.
I have NO idea what you're talking about. I didn't have to sign in to do anything, I just got on the site on away I went .I swear on MacArthur's grave I don't recall being on this site previous to last night, so how 'bout we call it a draw and move forward...
A proud John Wayne fan. I'm tellin' you guys...I really don't recall being on this site in June, no lie. If the record indicates otherwise, so be it---as for me, I don't recall. I can't keep myself busy with the redundant burden of knowing what I did in June during the month of August...4 children under 11, a wife and a mortgage keeps me a little too busy to keep track of which blog I've visited...sorry if I'm not up to speed with you folks. (And yes, to answer your next questions...the wife is outta town in Phoenix (she grew up in Tucson) and the children are asleep and I can't sleep well without my wife so I'm on this thing with you all). Again, sorry I can't keep track of all of my movements 2 months ago.
:7)
VICTORY IS MINE!!!
Secondary drive ("F") reconnected...
Full system scan for viruses, trojans, adware using Symantec Internet Security -includes Norton AV- (latest release, updated today)
4 problems found on Fdrive
4 problems utterly sh!tcanned from Fdrive
Full system scan repeated
NO PROBLEMS FOUND
Full system scan using Spybot S&D (latest release, updated today)
NO "IMMEDIATE THREATS" FOUND
To misquote the disturbing midget lady from Poltergeist: "This rig is CLEANSED!"
*deep sigh of profoundest bliss*
NOW I can start using some of my archived data... most important one, right off the bat, are my ARX and other menu mods for AutoCAD2000 - I really *HATE* not having my keyboard shortcuts.
by the way - not a Hindu this time. got a very well spoken brutha in Houston Texas... he lhao when I discovered the problem was a godforsaken BENT PIN.
If you think that Free Republic is nothing more than an irrelevant blog, please accept my next suggestion in the spirit in which it is intended.
Go away.
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