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Potential Republican Crack-Up

Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB

For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.

The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.

I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.

There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.

Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.

So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.

However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.

I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."

At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.

I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.

With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.

This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.

With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."

Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.

With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.

These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.

I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.

I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....

But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.

As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.

Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.

If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.


TOPICS: Politics
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To: Monkey Face; Knitting A Conundrum; NicknamedBob; Darksheare
Here's a look at a wolf spider. Naturally, mine aren't nearly as pretty as this one *shudder*, ahem,..but they are just as large.

The picture could be any size, so imagine,...... they are hairy, they measure 2-5" diameter.


2,961 posted on 08/14/2005 2:35:36 PM PDT by fanfan (" The liberal party is not corrupt " Prime Minister Paul Martin)
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To: Harmless Teddy Bear

Yepper...It's nice (?) to know that someone else has sensitive skin!


2,962 posted on 08/14/2005 2:35:52 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Why did kamikaze pilots wear helmets?)
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To: fanfan

OHGROSS!!!

*BLECH*


2,963 posted on 08/14/2005 2:36:33 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Why did kamikaze pilots wear helmets?)
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To: Monkey Face

Once a year!

I'm jealous!


2,964 posted on 08/14/2005 2:38:49 PM PDT by fanfan (" The liberal party is not corrupt " Prime Minister Paul Martin)
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To: fanfan

and they jump.

They are hunters and don't make a web to ambush like a lot of other spiders do.

http://www.ext.vt.edu/departments/entomology/factsheets/wolfspid.html

Wolf Spider

DESCRIPTION: Wolf spiders are usually large, hairy spiders that are not associated with webs. They look much worse than they are.

HABITAT: Common household pest in the fall when they are looking for a warm place for winter; found around doors, windows, house plants, basements and garages.

CONTROL: Spider control is best done on a one-to-one, as needed basis. A general spray for spiders is not recommended, unless the infestation seems severe. Tolerate what you can, spray with an aerosol what you can't.

INTERESTING FACTS: Most homeowners have misconceptions about spiders-they are pictured to be poisonous (even deadly), and likely to attack at any time. Wrong. The only dangerous spiders we have in Virginia are the brown recluse spider and the black widow spider. The brown recluse is not common. The black widow is common, but reports of it biting people are infrequent. For the most part, spiders are beneficial, eating insects and other spiders.


2,965 posted on 08/14/2005 2:40:15 PM PDT by Knitting A Conundrum (Act Justly, Love Mercy, and Walk Humbly With God Micah 6:8)
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To: fanfan

It comes from having red hair and also being American Indian. (Or maybe it's the other way around...)


2,966 posted on 08/14/2005 2:40:47 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Why did kamikaze pilots wear helmets?)
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To: Harmless Teddy Bear; Knitting A Conundrum; Monkey Face

;-)

Well, you weren't supposed to put it there!


2,967 posted on 08/14/2005 2:41:20 PM PDT by fanfan (" The liberal party is not corrupt " Prime Minister Paul Martin)
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To: Monkey Face

They are so big,...sometimes I think I should name them. LOL


2,968 posted on 08/14/2005 2:42:53 PM PDT by fanfan (" The liberal party is not corrupt " Prime Minister Paul Martin)
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To: fanfan

LOL!


2,969 posted on 08/14/2005 2:43:36 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Why did kamikaze pilots wear helmets?)
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To: fanfan

That's OK...they're your spiders, you have the royal right to do as you wish. Just, when you come to visit, please make sure they are leashed and muzzled. And bring food for them. Hobbes will be on vacation that week. ;o]


2,970 posted on 08/14/2005 2:45:05 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Why did kamikaze pilots wear helmets?)
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To: fanfan; Knitting A Conundrum; Monkey Face
On my legs?

:)

2,971 posted on 08/14/2005 2:46:10 PM PDT by Harmless Teddy Bear (When I walk into Sanctuary the band plays "Sweet Home Alabama")
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To: Harmless Teddy Bear

Ny liks ar seeled. :o|


2,972 posted on 08/14/2005 2:47:20 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Why did kamikaze pilots wear helmets?)
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To: Monkey Face

What ever will they eat?

Shall I bring my cats? :-)


2,973 posted on 08/14/2005 2:49:16 PM PDT by fanfan (" The liberal party is not corrupt " Prime Minister Paul Martin)
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To: fanfan

Hey, those things are everywhere around here.


2,974 posted on 08/14/2005 2:54:24 PM PDT by Darksheare (Small furry woodland creature falls to vorpal blade, film at eleven!)
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To: Harmless Teddy Bear; All

LOL.

Sorry, I couldn't resist the set up. (;-)

You FRiends are great.

I've got to go now.

See ya'll soon.

( I love that word, "Ya'll", I just love it! Gasp! Am I spelling it right?)


2,975 posted on 08/14/2005 2:54:39 PM PDT by fanfan (" The liberal party is not corrupt " Prime Minister Paul Martin)
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To: Harmless Teddy Bear; fanfan; Knitting A Conundrum; Monkey Face

I'm not sayin' nuttin.
I'm stayin' outta dis one.


2,976 posted on 08/14/2005 2:55:10 PM PDT by Darksheare (Small furry woodland creature falls to vorpal blade, film at eleven!)
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To: fanfan

*ahem* They are YOUR pets...bring them, by all means, but bring food for them. Whatever spiders eat...

And if you can find one big enough, you may want to bring a saddle for it!

LOL!

(The things are huge and ugly and I don't like spiders at all. Actually, insects and spiders can do what they do out of my house and away from my sight. It's getting worse as I get older, too...go figger...)


2,977 posted on 08/14/2005 2:55:48 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Why did kamikaze pilots wear helmets?)
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To: fanfan

Y'all are doin' just fine!


2,978 posted on 08/14/2005 2:56:35 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Why did kamikaze pilots wear helmets?)
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To: Darksheare

Wise choice, O Interesting One. I think your hands are full with laundry and phone jacks and such...who knows? You may invent a new way to make things go "BOOM!"


2,979 posted on 08/14/2005 2:58:18 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Why did kamikaze pilots wear helmets?)
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To: Monkey Face

I merely assisted with the phone jack.
That way, if someone lit up, I could stand by and go 'OOOOOOH, Aaaaaaah!' while applauding.
*chuckle*


2,980 posted on 08/14/2005 2:59:27 PM PDT by Darksheare (Small furry woodland creature falls to vorpal blade, film at eleven!)
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