Potential Republican Crack-Up

[KMB]

For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.

The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.

I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.

There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.

Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.

So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.

However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.

I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."

At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.

I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.

With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.

This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.

With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."

Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.

With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.

These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.

I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.

I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....

But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.

As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.

Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.

If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.

[fanfan]

Lots of people being stuck by lighting up here lately.

Make sure he goes with someone taller, and stands at least 10 feet away during strikes.

[Monkey Face]

And don't shelter under a tree...

[fanfan]

And Diet Coke.

That's the stuff that removes the calories from the ice cream, right?

When we were expecting our first, we went to one (1) child birth prep. class........About half way through, one lady asked if the placenta was the thing that filtered out the junk food she ate so that it wouldn't hurt the baby. At that moment, we realized the class was for people like her, and not people like us. LOL.

[Dead Corpse]

Seraphim Shock- Some Sick Dream

Beneath the Willow tree
She beckons me. Deep inside
An Autum's chill, a Witches Spell
By candlelight, legends cry
So sad the Ghost
Behind her precious smile
So sad her haunted head
Blood covers time
On and on it goes
The Devils play
Drift away
Alone
She's alone again
Scarlet rain
Alone
She's alone again
Roses fade

Stare into my eyes forever
Let me take you in my arms
Dance with me out in the Garden,
where tomorrow never comes
Follow me into the darkness
Where the nightmares never fade
Whisper dreams my Fallen Angle
From which you will never wake
Please stay

[Dead Corpse]

Eh... something like that. As I get older, my temper isn't as volitile as it used to be.

[Tax-chick]

You must have been there during a flood cycle. When Dad and I went to the Big Bend, it hadn't rained in Marathon for 10 months, and in Fort Stockton for 7 months. We fixed that!

[Tax-chick]

That's funny! I've steadfastly avoided childbirth classes - but managed to have babies anyway!

[Monkey Face]

Did you know that the Coca-Cola company uses coke to clean it's truck engines? And that highway patrol troopers usually carry a couple gallons in their trunks to clean the blood off highways after an accident? It will also dissolve raw hamburger and even nails...

[fanfan]

Now thats just not true.

[Monkey Face]

Nah...I just went there and it began to rain...just like it did here when I made my plans to move here...I was stalled in TX for three days, waiting for the rain to stop here, so I could make the drive.

[Monkey Face]

Yes ma'am...I have an entire list of the things that coke can do, and none of them are "good" to the internal human organs...

[Tax-chick]

Amazing!

[Monkey Face]

Yep...and I will not drink coke...I won't even drink Pepsi unless there is nothing else available.

I'll find that list and post it...it's SCARY!

[HKMk23]

Just back from bee-YOU-teeful Yosemite with the missus and all the little Mk23's (Tac45's??). Pitched the BIG tent [9-man Ridgeway by Kelty, roughly 15ft x 18ft] in a campsite at Crane Flat (at 6,200ft elev, 8 mi from the park entrance on hwy 120).

Sat for an hour with Mrs. HKMk23 one night and watched a bat swooping through the light of our two tiki torches over and over again. Coyotes making a ruckus woke us up a couple of times. I grew up in the hills and had coyotes around, but I never realized how etheral is their howling until I heard it echoing through those Sierra woods; makes the blood run cold. Only wolves would have been more, uh, "exciting."

As always in the Sierra, the night sky was utterly majestic. [My God! It's full of stars!] A sky like that is almost enough to make you wish for fewer trees so as to see it better. Just a tad on the cool side to leave the rainfly off the tent or we could have watched the skies from our beds at night (the tent has a fine mesh top that allows an open sky view if you leave the rainfly off). It's really too bad, as we're just entering the Perseid Meteor shower and might well have seen some early arrivals.

Went on the short hikes to Bridalveil and Lower Yosemite falls. This time of year the water level is low enoug that you can boulder right up the creek to the falls themselves in both locations. Climbed with my #2 son right to the face of Lower Yosemite Falls and stood in the cool mist on a 100+ degree day thinking, "99.99% of the people who visit here, never experience this." Spent a couple of afternoons relaxing on the shores of the Merced river at Cathedral beach; wading, skipping stones and playing "Duck on a Rock" (on a log, actually).

Only saw one bear, which was sort of a disappointment, but the encounter was cool. On the walk to Lower Yosemite Falls, I was playing caboose with #3 son and #1 son was about 200ft ahead of us on the walking trail along the road. A mid-sized brown bear crossed the road about 40ft behind him; just loafing along with warm sunshine and fresh grubs on it's mind and paying no mind to either man or machine. I hollered to #1 son to turn around so he could get an eyeful, but he was just out of earshot. In retrospect, that might have been for the best, however. If he HAD seen the bear, I'm not certain that he wouldn't have panicked and bolted and, had he done that, the bear was close enough to him to make the urge to chase him a very real enticement.

Alas, 'twas past all too soon and I now have returned to the land of plastic and pavement; drawn inexorably to a more tedious reality by economic ties that bind. BTW, 'Face, my real name's no shorter tha my screen name, but you can call me "D" if it'll make your life easier.

[fanfan]

Well, being scientifically minded, (Spock was my hero), I tried it.

Coke can't clean a penny, or dissolve a nail.

It can however look very undrinkable after 2 days with a penny or nail sitting in the bottom of the glass. LOL.

[Chode]

yup, i'm lovin it... Must see TV!!!

ya wanna see Five??? http://www.madcomics.de/tripping/18/money02.jpg

[Dawsonville_Doc]

It'll take pine sap off a car... ;)

[Darksheare]

Yuppers, I kinda helped drag her back from lurking.

[Monkey Face]

OK...I'm going to have to transcribe this list, but when I do, I'll post it. It takes coke about four days to dissolve a nail...

[Monkey Face]

And clean the corrosion around the battery terminals...