POLAND AND RUSSIA HAVE CONFLICTING STRATEGIC INTERESTS (Ukraine)

Rzeczpospolita, Polish News Bulletin, Warsaw, Poland | Jul 13, 2005 | Joanna Strzelczyk

[Leo Carpathian]

POLAND AND RUSSIA HAVE CONFLICTING STRATEGIC INTERESTS AND THE SOONER BRUSSELS UNDERSTANDS IT, THE BETTER (Ukraine)

Russia wants to keep Ukraine in its exclusive zone of influence and Poland perceives Ukraine as a EU member in the near future. Those two strategies are irreconcilable.

COMMENTARY: By Joanna Strzelczyk Chief of Staff of Warsaw Mayor Lech Kaczynski Former Foreign Ministry Official (1990-1996) Article published in Rzeczpospolita Polish News Bulletin, Warsaw, Poland, Wed, Jul 13, 2005

Since 1989, with a short break in the late 1990s, the Russian question has been one of the most important ones in Poland's foreign policy, writes Joanna Strzelczyk, chief of staff of Warsaw mayor Lech Kaczynski, former foreign ministry official (1990-1996), in Rzeczpospolita.

Today, the question's significance has been rapidly growing, due chiefly to mounting Polish-Russian disputes and conflicts. That has been a result, on the one hand, of the neo-imperialism of Vladimir Putin, who has exploited historical issues to make short-term political gains, and, on the other, of controversies, present since the early 1990s, in Polish-Russian relations.

In the recent years, those controversies had been hushed for various reasons, so as soon as they became public knowledge, the situation intensified.

That was reflected in historical disputes, stimulated by the Moscow celebrations of the 60th anniversary of the end of world war II, which brought back into the spotlight issues such as the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact, the Katyn massacre, or Poland's post-war enslavement. Those are hot media topics, but also issues important for Poland's image in Europe. They are not, however, first-rate issues.

The anniversary celebrations are over and the real problem has now emerged, hidden so far under the historical and hysterical rhetoric: are we doomed to conflict in Polish-Russian relations? The answer is affirmative, and the issue is not new.

It is a consequence of the processes occurring in Europe following the collapse of the bipolar world. This means that Poland and Russia have increasingly divergent interests, and that this process will continue.

What are Poland's interests in Russia? In principle, there are only THREE: [1] regulating the historical issues, [2] access to the Russian markets, and [3] supplies of Russian energy commodities.

And what are Russia's interests in Poland? Only ONE: dominating Poland's energy and fuel markets.

A strategic goal inconsistent with Poland's national interests. And vice versa, as Poland's interests in Russia, with the exception of fuel imports, are inconvenient for Russia.

What are the controversial issues between the two countries? There are several, and all of fundamental significance for Poland and Russia.

The FIRST issue, Ukraine today and Belarus in the future. Russia wants to keep those countries in its exclusive zone of influence.

Poland, in turn, perceives Ukraine as an EU member in a relatively near future, and the other post-Soviet states Georgia, perhaps with time Moldova, and certainly post-Lukashenka Belarus in close relations with Europe. Those two strategies are irreconcilable.

The SECOND issue: energy commodities and the Polish fuel market. Russia is interested in monopolising supplies and promoting Russian investment in the broadly meant energy sector. Russian companies are an instrument of Moscow's foreign policy. That policy concerns all of Europe, but Poland in particular.

Given the above, it has to be admitted that Russia has reasons to feel irritated. The prospect of the moderate right winning the upcoming elections means that the controversial issues will further intensify.

The PO-PiS coalition, if it is successfully formed, will certainly attach great significance to close and friendly relations with Ukraine. It will also try to diversify oil and gas supplies, partly with transit through Ukraine something that Russia has so far managed to prevent.

The new government will also subject the Polish fuel market and all the related issues to closer scrutiny. The parliamentary committee of inquiry into PKN Orlen has already revealed such a strong involvement of official and unofficial Russian factors in this area that new regulations will need to be urgently passed. The very exposing of the mechanisms used by Russia to gain influence has to be irritating enough for the Kremlin.

In this situation, the various Russian secret services can be expected to carry out operations aimed at discrediting the centre-right parties, such as the PO and the PiS, to strengthen the position of not only leftwing formations but also those rightwing ones that Russia perceives as friendly.

Using historical issues to tarnish Poland's image in the EU is an even more tangible threat. As a result of such efforts, Poland appears as an irrational, quarrelsome country that lives in the past and thus attacks all its neighbours.

It is impossible, writes Strzelczyk, to talk about history in an honest and adequate way without remembering the Russians and the Germans who started world war II, who was its victim, and what are the moral and political consequences of that.

This, however, again puts Poland in the face of a propaganda war with two enemies. And weakens its position in the EU. For while it is clear that Poland's eastern policy should be part of the EU's policy towards Russia, respecting Poland's interests in the EU policy is a different matter altogether. Warsaw has few arguments convincing for Brussels and formulating them is what it should focus on.

The anniversaries pass and very well, let the atmosphere around them calm down. This does not mean that we should forget about history, but rather that we should look at it anew.

The shifting of stress in presenting historical issues such as the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact or Katyn should consist in remembering what has already been achieved and going forward, rather than stubbornly returning to the starting point.

And quite a lot has been achieved: Russia, formerly the Soviet Union, admitted officially that the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact had been invalid from the point of view of international law. It also admitted that Katyn was a work of the Russians. Discussing those issues anew could tempt Russia to backtrack on its earlier statements. Poland should adopt the principle that issues once agreed will not be discussed again.

An issue that needs to be taken up are war reparations, especially compensations for Poles sent to forced labour and exile in the Soviet Union. The issue, present in Polish-Russian talks for a decade now, has been progressing at a very slow pace. Efforts must be made to bring it to completion, Forced labour compensations already have a precedent, and it is time they became a European standard.

Russia has been loathe to pay the compensations, and has deliberately kept the dispute at an early stage, arguing that it lacks the funds and its own victims of Stalinism were paid only pennies.

Those are unacceptable arguments. As the Soviet Union's continuator, Russia has been paying the Soviet debts without protest. It is therefore time it started paying out compensations. It is the only historical issue that should be Poland's priority today. Warsaw should make all it can for the Polish claims to be understood and supported by Brussels.

As far as economic issues are concerned, the first-rate issue is the planned Baltic gas pipeline linking Russian gas deposits with western Europe. The pipeline will be an alternative for the Yamal pipeline crossing through Poland.

Perhaps it would be worth reminding the Russians that they are bound by a contract under which two lines of the Yamal were supposed to be developed, whereas only one has been developed and that is supposed to be it.

For that reason, Poland will incur substantial financial losses, and it would make sense to demand damages or start talks on alternative solutions offsetting them. Contracts should be kept. Russia does not stand above the law.

The Polish-Russian conflict, political, not historical, is therefore a fact. It cannot be avoided. Too much sets the two countries apart.

In fact, those divisions are inevitable if Poland is to retain its identity and not return from the European and euroatlantic path it has chosen. In its own interest, but also in Europe's. It is worth making sure that Brussels understands this.

[The Action Ukraine Report (AUR) Monitoring Service]

[Lukasz]

The Albania-Macedonia-Bulgaria Oil Pipeline (AMBO) Because oil exports from the Caspian Sea region are projected to increase rapidly in the next decade, several oil pipeline proposals to bypass Turkey's increasingly congested Bosporus and Dardanelles straits (see map) are under consideration or in development. The 570-mile, 750,000-barrel-per-day (bbl/d) AMBO pipeline will connect the Bulgarian Black Sea port of Burgas with the Albanian Adriatic port of Vlore, allowing seaborne oil exports from Russia and the Caspian Sea region to flow overland between the Black Sea and the Adriatic. In December 2004, AMBO announced that front-end engineering and design (FEED) on the $1.2-billion pipeline would be completed in early 2005 following the December 28, 2004 signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) by ministers from Bulgaria, Albania, and Macedonia. Construction is expected to begin within the next 12 months for operation within three years.

I think Poland and Ukraine would be able to benefit from that project as well. The only thing Poland and Ukraine would have to do is ask Bulgaria to connect a junction from Bulgaria and take it northwards through Romania, Ukraine and into Poland.

Well, this pipe is already too long and there is too many transit countries and destiny of this gas is mostly western Europe. If we discussing gas projects, then Ukraine would like to build pipeline from Iran ( second leg may be from Turkmenistan via Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan to Georgia) through Armenia, Georgia, Black Sea to Ukraine and further to Europe. It would be better project for us, but I doubt that we will have enough money. We need a help of western companies but now they are more interested in this Russian project through the Baltic Sea. There is also problem with bank credits, because political situation in this region is unstable.

This might be something that US, Poland and other European countries may come together to get rid of China's political influence by investing more in Kazakhstan.

Only US concerns have enough money, our firms may be just cooperates. But I know that some Polish firms would lake to have access to Kazakhs resources, recently the biggest Polish firms signed common memorandum of cooperation.

[sergey1973]

I'm looking forward to oil alternatives -:)))) Maybe it's premature, but I really hope for a technological breakthrough in the very near future that can allow the world to stop relying on oil as the primary source of the energy. Oil proved to be more often a curse than a blessing for the social and economic development of many countries. Corrupt and autocratic regimes in Russia, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Venezuella and other places are in power mostly because of the constant flow of oil dollars. With a few exceptions (Norway), oil impedes development of democratic institutions and civic society and provides a few incentives for countries to diversify their economies. Let's not forget that Islamic terror is largely funded by oil revenues coming from Saudi Arabia and other oil rich Arab Gulf States.

[RusIvan]

He defended Molotov-Ribbentrop on 60th anniversary of Victory in Europe in WWII. ==

Defended on 60th anniversary?:)) It is distortion Sergey.
Can you read russian? If yes then find Putin speeches and see first hand.
He is not defend it. He just said that it was such times and someone who seek "special" appologies from someone has better first hand look on itself.

[RusIvan]

Corrupt and autocratic regimes in Russia, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Venezuella and other places are in power mostly because of the constant flow of oil dollars. ==

You equal Russia with Nigeria? Serge do you ever travel to Nigeria? If not then you don't know what you talking about:))))>.

For your information Sergey Russia does R&D on fule cell elements. Norilsk nickel corporation finnace it since they produces nickel needed for hydrogen fuel cells.
SO during 5 years Russia will start production of those fuel cells.

Second thing, russian scientists participate in new europian project of thermonuclier reactor. Accually whole design is former soviet-russian Tokamak. DO you know what is it?
If not firstly go educate yourself then start to equal Russia and Nigeria:)).

Lukasz if you NASA scientist as you told then maybe you understand what I talk about? May be you tell sense into Sergey?

[sergey1973]

Poland also did its share of wrongs when it took Czech lands in 1938. But it did not massacred Czech officers or other citizens. See the difference ?

If Russia is not Soviet Union, why Putin does not want to acknowledge the Soviet Crimes and tries to whitewash it ? He does when he tries to avoid mentioning Molotov-Ribbentrop altogether. So RusIvan, maybe it's time you stop playing Putin defence and start comparing the facts yourself.

[sergey1973]

I'm not comparing Russia and Nigeria. I simply say that regimes in these countries are propped up by oil dollar flows and it provides little incentives to diversify economies. If you could stop defending Putin at every corner, our discussion could go far better.

[anonymoussierra]

:}}}}}}}}"You are not the only one. Technology moves with sounding speed just give some time. Rus I will respond to your post as well let me address something here; politician role is too put wedge between people; either they wouldn't have a job. Putin is just a whacked individual with two horns up his skull (please note I only address Putin) so are some of our guys in Warsaw. I personally don't care what Putin said and will say; fact is he doesn't represent Russian people, neither Kwasniewski represents us Polish people. What they represent is governments and stubborn old grumpy guys who can't just get their act together."thank you all

[RusIvan]

Poland also did its share of wrongs when it took Czech lands in 1938. But it did not massacred Czech officers or other citizens. See the difference ? ==

Yes they didn't in 1938. But in 1920 they took soviet POWs: about 100 thousands. WHo was put into concentration camps and died there by hunger and epidemy of tifus.
Is it revelation to you Sergey? Well known fact in Russia acually.
Poles don't like even to talk about it. Keep silence.

If Russia is not Soviet Union, why Putin does not want to acknowledge the Soviet Crimes and tries to whitewash it ? ==

Soviet crimes was acknoleged about 15 years to now by desisions of first russian parlament. If you don't know that hence you go educate yourself. You have advantage to read original documents why you do not?

Putin just said that why Russia has to appologize over and over to those who did same things and same time?

[anonymoussierra]

"I'm looking forward to oil alternatives -:)))) Maybe it's premature, but I really hope for a technological breakthrough in the very near future that can allow the world to stop relying on oil as the primary source of the energy. Oil proved to be more often a curse than a blessing for the social and economic development of many countries. Corrupt and autocratic regimes in Russia, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Venezuella and other places are in power mostly because of the constant flow of oil dollars. With a few exceptions (Norway), oil impedes development of democratic institutions and civic society and provides a few incentives for countries to diversify their economies. Let's not forget that Islamic terror is largely funded by oil revenues coming from Saudi Arabia and other oil rich Arab Gulf States.""I concur"

[Lukasz]

As far as I know no one angry on result of election in Ukraine. Don't you notice where Yuschenko went in his first time foreign visit as president? Moscow.

It was political gesture towards Russia witch Kremlin ignored. Just recently “United Russia” signed strategic cooperation memorandum with Yanukovich “Regions party”. Only blind would not notice that relation between Moscow and Kiev worsened.

Russia don't support separatists.

Of course that Russia supports both Abhazja and S. Ossetia. Their leader often visiting Moscow. I wont support any mafia. Besides many Georgian lived there and in little Georgia Abhazians are only 6% of total population. Other thing that Sakashvili offering them wide autonomy.

Moldavia is same thing. Dnestri republic are populated by nonmoldavians.

There is 30% of Moldavains in Transdnistria. Again Yushchenko’s proposal offering them wide autonomy as well. Russia broke its agreement with OSCE and illegally keep troops in Moldova.

Russia goes against that when poles tells that russians are responsible for that ALONE.

Of course Poland never made such claims. Russian government often justifying Soviet crimes and your propaganda change nothing.

[Lukasz]

Yes they didn't in 1938. But in 1920 they took soviet POWs: about 100 thousands. WHo was put into concentration camps and died there by hunger and epidemy of tifus.

That is a lie, there was not any concentration camps in Poland. I know that many POW died because of hunger nut also many escaped to Eastern Prussia and probably they never came back. Well, they could chose some richer country to spread communism in.

[sergey1973]

"Yes they didn't in 1938. But in 1920 they took soviet POWs: about 100 thousands. WHo was put into concentration camps and died there by hunger and epidemy of tifus."

Yes I'm aware of Red Army Soldiers who were defeated during Soviet Polish war of 1919-1920. Their fate is tragic although they died in POW camps as the result of epidemic (Local civilians are died in large numbers too). Plus don't forget that they were technically agressors who wanted to make Poland "Red".

The Soviet Bolsheviks had a slogan that was something like this "On the bones of White Poland we'll bring the fire of revolution to the Western Europe". So the Red Army was stopped by Polish Nationalist forces from spreading Bolshevism with all its accolates (mass murders, deliberate starvation, property confiscations, arbitrary arrests and executions, etc.) to Poland and then to the Rest of Europe. Surely the fate of ordinary soldiers should be remembered. It's an essence of humanity to remember the fallen in war no matter what cause they faught for. But it's not the same as deliberately shooting thousands of Polish officers and definitely its not the same as deliberately murdering millions and millions of Soviet Citizens (Russians, Ukrainians, etc) for belonging to "enemy classes" for being "enemies of people", etc.

[RusIvan]

I know that many POW died because of hunger nut also many escaped to Eastern Prussia and probably they never came back==

You know Lucasz what Stalin answered when general Anders (do you know who he is?) asked him first time about those polish POWs?
Stalin said: "Many escaped through Chukotka to America and probably they never came back." DOn't you see some resemblance here?:((

[RusIvan]

As far as I know no one angry on result of election in Ukraine. Don't you notice where Yuschenko went in his first time foreign visit as president? Moscow.

It was political gesture towards Russia witch Kremlin ignored.==

How you may know that Lucasz? DO you member of Yuschenko team? Ar eyou his advisor?
I think not. Hence you just bla bla:)). Whose then spead a propaganda here?
I'm just opposite always trying to prove my points by facts. You are not. Any people who has brains will understand.

[Lukasz]

Do you see pink arrows directed to Eastern Prussia (Prusy Wschodnie), this is Soviet army.

[sergey1973]

"That is a lie, there was not any concentration camps in Poland. I know that many POW died because of hunger nut also many escaped to Eastern Prussia and probably they never came back. Well, they could chose some richer country to spread communism in."

Lukasz--where the Soviet Russian POW's were kept then ? In Private Polish homes ? In Pilsudski headquarters ? There surely were POW camps and quite a number of Russian Red Army soldiers died there during epidemy. So let's not rewrite history. Certainly, Soviet Russian POW's were representatives of an agressive power who wanted to spread Bolshevism in Poland and E. Europe, so its wrong to equate their fate with the fate of the victims of communism. Nevertheless, it does not mean that we should not have any respect to the war dead even if they fought for completely wrong cause.

[RusIvan]

So the Red Army was stopped by Polish Nationalist forces from spreading Bolshevism with all its accolates (mass murders, deliberate starvation, property confiscations, arbitrary arrests and executions, etc.) to Poland and then to the Rest of Europe.==

They did it good. But unfortunately they was so preoccupied with creation of Great Poland from sea to sea ("ot mozha do mozha") that they just swallowed chunk of ukranian and bellorussin lands which bolshevicks smartly bribed them with.
They could break whole bolshevick regime but just was duped and bribed by bolshevicks. And stupidly they let bolshevick regime live.

Later in 1939 Stalin revenged and they payed for thier stupidity.

Let them so be resentful on bolshevick regime and shortsightness of thier leader- "pan Pilsudskii" but they are angry with russians! How so I cann't understand.:))
I realize now why so many anecdotes about poles roam United States:).

[Lukasz]

Lukasz--where the Soviet Russian POW's were kept then ?

They were kept in camps but not in concentration camps. Lukasz--where the Soviet Russian POW's were kept then ?

They were kept in camps but not in concentration camps. Maybe Pilsudski should offer them better conditions, but lets not forget that Poland regained independence in 1918 and since that time we have only war. Poland was poor and probably because of that they decided to fed first Poles and then invaders army.

[sergey1973]

"They could break whole bolshevick regime but just was duped and bribed by bolshevicks. And stupidly they let bolshevick regime live. "

Well--it's not that simple. Many White Guard Army leaders (Kolchak, Denikin) were against independent Polish State, so there was a wariness on a Polish side to ally themselves with the Russian White Guards. The same with Finnish Nationalist General Mannerheim. Finland was also part of Russian empire that broke from Russia in 1918. When Mannerheim came to power in 1918 after crushing its own Red Guard, he offered Russian White Guard the help in capturing Petrograd (St. Petersburg) from Bolsheviks. However the Russian White Guard did not want any part of Russian Empire to become independent and they did not give Mannerheim guarantees that they would respect Finnish Independence after Bolsheviks are crushed. This inflexibility and outright stupidity of White guard played a big role in not creating a unifying front against Bolsheviks. Hundreds of millions of people had to pay with their lives because of this stuborness and the refusal to acknowledge the reality.

[RusIvan]

Poland was poor and probably because of that they decided to fed first Poles and then invaders army.
==

Let us project your logic.

Soviet Union people was even poorer. Then Stalin decided istead of killing by hunger those polish POWS it is mrcier to shoot them.

It is your logic Lucasz.