Dinocrat: "3 - 4 million Democrats voted for Bush: can they be coaxed back or replaced?"

Dinocrat.com ^ | 12/12/04 | Jack Risko

[macbee]

A very interesting and well-researched analysis of the "red shift" of US voters and its implications for the Democrats. Note: a "DINOcrat" is someone who has finally come to their senses regarding the Democratic party.

[Paul Atreides]

Gonna have a tough time replacing future Dims when they are being aborted.

[Southack]

One killer for Dems is that they can't raise funds in Miami. Some hip, modern Hispanics and Jews in Miami can still be convinced to vote for Democrats (for now), but they've already decided to not support the Dems with their own pocketbooks.

That's an enormous "red" flag for the Dems. Watch for other Democratic Party areas to gradually follow Miami's lead.

[searchandrecovery]

Seems like older people (such as myself) get more conservative over time. I was pretty liberal in my 20's (gag, aclu member). But, uh, idealism gives way to realism and fairness - seeing so much tax money wasted by bozo's on stupid programs helped, too. Oh yea, and the federal government has not ever solved one social problem.

I predict a continuing conservative surge for at least 10 more years. Then all the illegals have a shot.

[TheMole]

Interesting article from the point of view of a disaffected Democrat. he understands the problems, and also seems to understand that the interest groups controlling the Dems are unlikely to allow any of the necessary changes. Excellent graphic, which I think I can reproduce here because he says he got it from CBS anyway :^) showing the dense concentration of Democrat votes in several urban counties:

[Once-Ler]

He has it exactly right. These Democrats didn’t stay home; they didn’t leave the presidential ballot unmarked. They crossed over to the dark side.

Maybe so, but more rats also increased their votes. More rats voted in this election than at any previous point in history. It seems that the rats held their voters, but Republican votes grew by leaps. 911 happened and for a lot of people who never voted this was the catalyst.

[HHFi]

Forget it, Democrats: you can never win back enough votes to overcome the shortfall. That's because we evil Republicans, in concert with Diebold Inc., Halliburton and the Carlyle Group, have rigged all the voting machines to cast all their votes for Republicans! Bwaaa-haaaa-haaa-HAAAAAAAAA!!!!!

Sorry, just messing with your heads.

Maybe.

You'll never know.

[ClaireSolt]

I have a couple of ideas. How bout you teach children to read and write in those city schools? Then you could get some bulldozers and knock down decrepit old housing in those rat and roach infested cities.

[asgardshill]

But I thought MoveOn.org held the pink slip for the Democrat Party now. Let them pony up the money they need to stay competitive.

[ariamne]

They won't get me back, even after 28 years of voting Democratic. Not after the weak response to 9/11 and the terrorist appeasement that followed. Not after allowing a scum sucking bottom feeder like Cynthia McKinney into the party and then taking her back after getting rid of her once. This long-time Democrat is through, through with the party. You'd have to resurrect Harry Truman from the dead to get me back. And even then you'd have to prove you will fight for this country. Pulling that republican level for the first time felt really good. Again, again!

[Dan from Michigan]

Usually 8-12% of a party defects to the other side. A lot of them are 'local democrats' or 'local republicans' but switch for national races. (one party areas).

A lot of those democrats are most likely Southern, from the UP or Northeast Michigan, or from places like West Virginia. Working class folks mostly who are conservative.

The republican switchers are usually liberals from rich areas.

[Coop]

In any event, they showed up, having voted for Al Gore, and pulled the lever for Bush...

I have not scrubbed numbers, so please pound on me if I'm wrong, but I highly doubt that Bush's 3 mil-vote advantage was due to Gore voters changing sides. Just cannot see it happening. I think it's much more likely that those 4 mil Christians who supposedly sat home in 2000 actually went to vote this time around. (I'm strictly speaking in general terms here, realizing that this soup is made up of many ingredients.)

[MamaLucci]

Good for you..............you join a growing group of dems who realize that the party left THEM, not the other way around.

[mass55th]

I heard on the local radio yesterday that in New York State, President Bush won 5 more counties t han he had in 2000 and got over 500,000 more votes in the state than he'd gotten in 2000.

[BlackRazor]

I have not scrubbed numbers, so please pound on me if I'm wrong, but I highly doubt that Bush's 3 mil-vote advantage was due to Gore voters changing sides.

A quick glance at the exit poll numbers supports your view. In both 2000 and 2004, the same percentage of Democrats voted for Bush -- 11%. Of all voters who voted for Gore in 2000, 9% switched over to vote for Bush in 2004. But that's cancelled out by the 10% of Bush voters from 2000 who voted for Kerry this time. It doesn't look like there was any significant net erosion on either side.

[Coop]

Good stuff. Thanks

[ariamne]

You are probably right for the most part; but I was a Gore voter who switched sides. I can't be the only one who wised up after our country was attacked on 9/11.

[macbee]

I can't be the only one who wised up after our country was attacked on 9/11.

The term "Sept. 12 Republican" is sometimes used for this change; Dennis Miller and moviemaker David Zucker describe themselves this way. Numerous traditionally Democratic voters decided that Kerry and the DNC simply are not deep-down committed to ensuring that the US deals seriously with the terrorist threat. The fact that Howard Dean is now being seriously considered for DNC leadership simply reinforces this pacifist/isolationist image for the party.

[mewzilla]

Coaxing the Democrat Bush voters back into the fold is not something the MoveOn crowd shows interest in. The 3 - 4 million Democrats who voted for Bush have been insulted just as much as the Republican Bush supporters in the aftermath of the election by the left wing of the Democratic party; these turncoat Democrats have become “predatory and resentful, amoral, avaricious, and arrogant,” just like the President they voted for, or maybe they’re just plain stupid – in the minds of leftist Democrat elites. Among the GOP’s biggest voter recruiting and retention tools is the condescending attitude of the Left towards everyone who is not them.

Ain't that the truth!

[ariamne]

Actor Ron Silver is another Sept 12th Republican, as you put it. I like the term, it certainly fits!