On the ground in Minnesota, Bush gains on Kerry

We have heard a lot of bluster in the media about massive increases in voter registration. The Democrats have implied that they are getting tons and tons of new people registered. The GOP is implying the same.

Well, there are data sets out there in the internet that can help us evaluate these claims. So far, I have collected registration data for New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota that will help us see who is developing an advantage in each state.

Translations: As of 9-15-04, the President's campaign staff and conservative 527's had done a significantly better job of registering voters than Kerry's staff and liberal 527's.

Note that this analysis takes advantage of two assumptions which might be problematic.

First, we are assuming that people who voted in 2000 will not change their vote in 2004. In other words, we are assuming a stable electorate. I do not think the electorate will be stable, but I do not think it will swing toward Kerry. Can Kerry do better than Gore did in 2000? I do not think so. He might do better than Gore by registering more people to vote for him...but that is the dependent variable I am testing here. Thus, if this assumption is inaccurate, it will be to Bush's benefit.

Second, I am assuming that the people who have left the voter registration rolls break down for Bush or Kerry the same way that all registered voters broke down for Bush or Gore in 2000. Thus, Bush enjoyed 7.72% support among registered voters in Wabasha County. I am assuming that of the registered voters who have been dropped from the rolls, Bush would have enjoyed 7.72%, Kerry would have enjoyed 32.51%, and roughly 3/5ths of those voters would have supported somebody else or would have supported nobody. Now, I recognize that, for any given county, this figure is somewhat biased. The chances are that people who have been dropped from the rolls in Wabasha County are more likely to be people in that 3/5ths group.

However, as long as we can assume that the people dropped from the rolls are not more likely to be Bush voters than Kerry voters, we can still conclude that Bush has gained ground on Kerry. Thus, for instance, in Wabasha County, as long as the number of Kerry people dropped were 4 times more numerous than the Bush people, our conclusion still holds that the president has gained ground in Wabasha County. Kerry received four times as many votes as Bush did in Wabasha. If Kerry lost 4 times as many voters in the cleaning of the registration rolls there, the overall conclusion about the county will hold (although we cannot identify a figure precisely; nevertheless, we can use the real figured mentioned above as rough estimates). So it goes for the entire state. I cannot think of any reason why, for any of these counties, we would expect anything beyond this. If Bush won a county with 5 times the number of votes Gore received, I think we can safely assume that he has lost 5 times as many voters to declining registration rolls.

Thanks for your kind words, plushaye.

Just so you know, I have also posted some information about why presidential polling should not be relied upon in close races. It is more witchcraft than science.

I am convinced that there is only one way to look at this race, and it is not to be found at zogby.com! You have to dig deep into the numbers.

I think this is especially true this year. Bush and Rove are running a non-traditional campaign looking to boost the president's standing from the ground-up. Much of this cannot be captured in the polls. It is the sum of all the little things that will make a big difference, like the impressive GOP gains in Carver County, Minnesota; like all the radio ads they are running on evangelical radio stations; like their 72-hour GOTV plan. You're never going to see a poll reflect these things. You're never going to see the AP covering it. But the fact of the matter is that these things are happening, and they will matter.

I think there will be a lot of surprises on 11-2-04. Well, they will be surprises to anybody who just looks at the state polls to get a sense of the race. Savvy people know that many of these states have real races on. Minnesota is one such example. Something is happening up there in the Minneapolis/St. Paul suburbs that has the possibility of surprising everybody. Why else would the President go there the day after the election? Colorado is another such example. People think Colorado is going to be a real slog on election day. No way. The GOP blew the top off voter turnout in September. Watch that to happen again. Bush is going to win CO in a walk. He's appearing at Red Rocks tonight with Tommy Franks; that'll probably net him 2% in just one evening!

Unfortunately, I do not. I do not have any inside sources, so all I really can go by is research at the OH and WI Secretary of State websites. OH's is extremely poor, by the way. Their voter registration ended last week and they have no information up about registration rolls. WI's registration ends (I think) on 10-20. Hopefully, we'll get a sense of what is going on then.

If I were you, I would urge you not to worry about voter fraud too much. I have friends who think the Democrats steal 2-5% based on that alone. I doubt that this will occur this year. The GOP knows what kinds of tricks the Democrats pull -- after all, there are only so many ways you can cheat with a paper ballot -- and I would expect them to do a great deal to diminish its effect. Bottom line: if we hear about it on Freep, it means Bush/Cheney '04 and the RNC have heard about it...and they are undoubtedly on the case.

"The GOP knows what kinds of tricks the Democrats pull -- after all, there are only so many ways you can cheat with a paper ballot -- and I would expect them to do a great deal to diminish its effect."

First of all, Jay, I just found your blog and WOW is it informative! Brilliant analysis. You use logic over core emotional reaction quite effectively. I couldn't stop reading it.

Secondly, do you have details on your above comment? How does the GOP keep tabs on voter fraud?

Keep up the good work ...

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