Thanks for your kind words, plushaye.
Just so you know, I have also posted some information about why presidential polling should not be relied upon in close races. It is more witchcraft than science.
I am convinced that there is only one way to look at this race, and it is not to be found at zogby.com! You have to dig deep into the numbers.
I think this is especially true this year. Bush and Rove are running a non-traditional campaign looking to boost the president's standing from the ground-up. Much of this cannot be captured in the polls. It is the sum of all the little things that will make a big difference, like the impressive GOP gains in Carver County, Minnesota; like all the radio ads they are running on evangelical radio stations; like their 72-hour GOTV plan. You're never going to see a poll reflect these things. You're never going to see the AP covering it. But the fact of the matter is that these things are happening, and they will matter.
I think there will be a lot of surprises on 11-2-04. Well, they will be surprises to anybody who just looks at the state polls to get a sense of the race. Savvy people know that many of these states have real races on. Minnesota is one such example. Something is happening up there in the Minneapolis/St. Paul suburbs that has the possibility of surprising everybody. Why else would the President go there the day after the election? Colorado is another such example. People think Colorado is going to be a real slog on election day. No way. The GOP blew the top off voter turnout in September. Watch that to happen again. Bush is going to win CO in a walk. He's appearing at Red Rocks tonight with Tommy Franks; that'll probably net him 2% in just one evening!
Very interesting to watch this play out in MN. I'm very happy about CO too, with the GOP GOTV effort and the EV split amendment which looks like it might be shot down.
Do you have a real sense about the registration swelling in WI and OH that FReepers have been worrying a lot about?