Ed Goeas: The Future As the Presidential Campaign Takes ShapeLooking at the 2008 Presidential Elections, the Republican Party has two strong and popular potential candidates – Rudy Giuliani (64%favorable/22% unfavorable) and John McCain (62% favorable/25% unfavorable). Both are at a 2.5 to 1 favorable/unfavorable ratio and both have strong images with Independents and in the Northeast, Midwest, and West – all demographics where the Republican Party has struggled in recent years.
In addition, Mitt Romney (22% favorable/13% unfavorable) has a slightly positive image with considerable room to grow with 46% of likely voters having never heard of him.
In contrast, while the presumptive front runner for the Democrats – Senator Hillary Clinton (51% favorable/46% unfavorable – 27% strongly favorable/35% strongly unfavorable) – does have a slightly positive image with a majority of the likely electorate, she also has a considerable number of likely voters already holding intensely negative views about her. In addition, her no image score is just 3%, so her challenge will be to convert opponents into supporters, rather than sell herself to uninformed voters.
Some of the other contenders like John Edwards (49% favorable/29% unfavorable) and Barack Obama (46% favorable/21% unfavorable) have name identification scores in line with Hillary Clinton’s score, but trail her in popularity with Democrats. Also, both of them enjoy a 27% favorable rating from Republicans, which is likely to dissipate quickly in the heat of the 2008 race.
On the trial 2008 ballots, McCain and Giuliani have very similar numbers against both Hillary and Obama. Both Republicans run strong with Independents. The breakdown is:
• McCain (53%) versus H. Clinton (43%)
• McCain (51%) versus Obama (39%)
• Giuliani (53%) versus H. Clinton (43%)
• Giuliani (50%) versus Obama (41%).
Looking ahead, the GOP has a history of focusing very quickly on two candidates and a history of nominating the front runner. Either we are going to have a battle between the two five hundred pound gorillas, or Giuliani will not enter the race, making room for an alternative to McCain to get some traction. In that scenario, the person who seems to be building the organization, resources, and money to be the last man standing is Mitt Romney.
On the Democratic side, there is much more history of the primaries remaining focused longer on multiple candidates, making room for sleeper candidates to surface much later in the nomination process. Hillary Clinton certainly has everything going for her as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination; the question over the next twelve months is whether Democratic primary voters will take pause when they see how polarizing she is with the general electorate. This data is certainly a cautionary indicator to national Democrats about the capacity of Senator Clinton to defeat either of the possible GOP candidates for President.
Conclusion
The 2008 Presidential Election will be the first election since 1952 that neither a president is running for re-election nor the President’s Vice President is running to replace him. It is truly an “open seat” Presidential race and will certainly bring some new twists to the process, evidenced by the fact that the race for the nomination for both parties is starting earlier than ever.
Other areas of the presidential campaign will see a greater emphasis as well. While the “vision thing” is always a part of every presidential election, it promises to be even more so in the 2008 Presidential Election. With this being an “open seat,” look for both party nomination fights and the general election to be as much an election about the future as it is about the past.
Perhaps one of the indicators of this potentially being another close election built around the future is a question we asked about voters’ attitudes about our children’s future. When asked in our latest George Washington University Battleground about their children’s future, thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters feel their children will be better off than they are, thirty-seven percent (37%) felt their children would be worse off, and nineteen percent (19%) felt their children’s lives would be about the same. But unlike other questions where Republicans are at one end of the spectrum, Democratic voters at the other end of the spectrum, and Independent voters often averaging the norm - this question shows Republicans are a net fifteen-points positive about their children’s future, Democratic voters are a net three-points negative about their children’s future, and Independent voters are a net twenty-points negative about their children’s future.
In last year’s Congressional Elections, we saw the impact of a major shift in attitudes with Independent voters. It truly cost the Republican Party control of the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. When it comes to which party wins control of the White House in the 2008 election, it may very well come down to which party’s Presidential candidate can capture a majority from Independent voters. More specifically, victory may come to the candidate who can show they can shape a better future (America) in the lives of the children of those Independent voters.
It has been said that the American Dream is not about today, but that the American Dream is seeing our children’s and grandchildren’s lives improve spiritually, educationally, economically, and in their personal safety. While 9/11, the war on terror, and the Iraqi War have all served to make the path to that American Dream less clear, so has the partisan politics of the last fifteen years. Who knows, maybe with an “open seat” presidential race, especially one focused on “swing” Independent voters and focused on our children’s future, maybe we as a nation can regain the “American Dream” as a top priority as it was in 1952.
I don't like polls these days for a variety of reasons
Though they are correct about swaying the independents
Bingo.