Rudy and the Republican Nomination

http://www.joinrudy2008.com/News/DocumentPrint.aspx?DocumentID=19580 ^ | 2 Feb 2007 | Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director

[PhiKapMom]

Rudy and the Republican Nomination

New York, Feb 2 -

To:	Team Rudy
From:	Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:	February 2, 2007
Re:	Rudy and the Republican Nomination

Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.

Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.

According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:

• 70% of independents are favorable,
• 70% of 35-44 year olds,
• 74% of married women,
• 73% of households married with children,
• 52% of minority voters

The Mayor also enjoys strong approval among white evangelical Christians (76%) and self-described conservative Republicans (82%).

In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”

In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.

The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.

Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:

State	Mayor Giuliani	Closest Competitor	Source
California	33%	19% (Gingrich)	ARG - Jan. 11-17
Florida	30%	16% (Gingrich)	ARG - Jan. 4-9
Illinois	33%	24% (McCain)	ARG - Jan. 11-14
Michigan	34%	24% (McCain)	ARG - Jan. 4-7
Nevada	31%	25% (McCain)	ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06
New Jersey	39%	21% (McCain)	Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22
North Carolina	34%	26% (McCain)	ARG - Jan. 11-15
Ohio	30%	22% (McCain)	Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28
Pennsylvania	35%	25% (McCain)	ARG Jan. 4-8
Texas	28%	26% (McCain)	Baselice Jan. 17-21

Conclusion
Recent polling continues to suggest Mayor Giuliani is very well positioned within the party – particularly when compared to other potential Republican candidates – to win the nomination.

Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.

Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.

[You Dirty Rats]

Come on over you Rudybots and tell us what you're gonna do if Rudy runs as an independent.

Look out the window for flying Michael Moores.

[Blackirish]

Come on over you Rudybots and tell us what you're gonna do if Rudy runs as an independent.

---

At that point he's toast.

With his poll numbers this high this late in the game the odds of that happening are nil.

[You Dirty Rats]

You're so damn boooring...

That's not what they said!

[dirtboy]

Look out the window for flying Michael Moores.

I could only hope to witness such with the same results as the turkey drop on WKRP...

"As God is my witness, I thought Michael Moore could fly..."

[TheSpottedOwl]

4 days? Ohhhh : ( I've toyed with the idea of getting into politics at that level, but I'm under Dr.'s orders to avoid stress. I still want to do something besides vote, though.

[PhiKapMom]

No way! You are talking to someone who had kids in high school where the football team dressed up as women to raise money for charity during homecoming and were crowned Miss BHS or whatever high school they attended. It was hilarious to watch these guys try to walk and dance in heels.

Anyone that would make it a negative for dressing like a woman in good fun for charity doesn't have a clue about most people in this Country. I have seen some of the funniest acts at roast for candidates and other events for charity and it is all in fun.

[EternalVigilance]

With his poll numbers this high this late in the game the odds of that happening are nil.

"This late in the game"????

Bwhahahahaha.....

[PhiKapMom]

I forgot about the opuses -- some of those were so funny and so grandstanding! Makes me laugh thinking about it!

[onyx]

Peach lives in the South and her church raises funds in the same manner --- the men dress as women. HAR!

[dirtboy]

No way! You are talking to someone who had kids in high school where the football team dressed up as women to raise money for charity during homecoming and were crowned Miss BHS or whatever high school they attended. It was hilarious to watch these guys try to walk and dance in heels.

Perhaps you could compare the cause that fundraising was for to the cause Rudy cross-dressed for and get back to us.

Once again, if Rudy at the time harbored ambitions for office outside NYC, I have no idea what he was thinking when he did this.

[Howlin]

You all done over on the Bash Romney threads and here to dump some on Rudy?

[Petronski]

So far in this thread, has EV repeated his demand that Rudy supporters wear cloth pink patches, just like in "the good old days?"

[onyx]

Not yet.

[deport]

Here are a few dos and don'ts:

Not all inclusive but some suggestions from the wrangler in chief.

[Howlin]

No can see. :-)

[dirtboy]

link didn't work

[EternalVigilance]

You all done over on the Bash Romney threads and here to dump some on Rudy?

Dumping on liberals is a time-honored FR tradition.

[PhiKapMom]

Work campaigns -- lot less stress and lot less idiotic paperwork. Campaigns are so much more fun and no one snipes at you then like they do as a Party official -- like herding cats -- no one agrees! Two years was two years too much in my County.

Campaigns are always looking for people to help them out.

[onyx]

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[Howlin]

Not yet, but, hey, it's early!