Posted on 02/02/2007 4:47:11 PM PST by PhiKapMom
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
New York, Feb 2 -
To:
Team Rudy
From:
Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:
February 2, 2007
Re:
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.
Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.
According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:
In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”
In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.
The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.
Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:
|
State |
Mayor Giuliani |
Closest Competitor |
Source |
| California | 33% | 19% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 11-17 |
| Florida | 30% | 16% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 4-9 |
| Illinois | 33% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-14 |
| Michigan | 34% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 4-7 |
| Nevada | 31% | 25% (McCain) | ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06 |
| New Jersey | 39% | 21% (McCain) | Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22 |
| North Carolina | 34% | 26% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-15 |
| Ohio | 30% | 22% (McCain) | Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28 |
| Pennsylvania | 35% | 25% (McCain) | ARG Jan. 4-8 |
| Texas | 28% | 26% (McCain) | Baselice Jan. 17-21 |
Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.
Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.
That's enough, knock off the trolling.
LOL! A real big one!
My pleasure : )
It's Sprite tonight. Big cup of Sprite from Wendy's. My daughter is off at the movies, so no beer for me. :(
That is not what the post was talking about, and you friggin know it.
Show me ONE UTTERANCE from Hunter where he has not supported the WOT 100 percent, as this guy implied.
If you have a shred of intellectual honesty, you will agree.
Thanks for the welcome. But don't count me in as a "true believer" at this point. I just want to read all threads concerning Giuliani so I can eventually make an informed decision when it comes time to vote. That said, I agree with Giuliani's positions on the economy, homeland security and fighting crime. I wish he was pro-life but hey, you can't have everything, and Bush himself ran on a pro-life platform but hasn't done much for the cause, incl. fighting to save Terri Schiavo's life beyond mouthing a few platitudes. So if the Pubbies are going to give us jack sh** on the social issues, we have to focus on the economic and security issues where they get results, and in those issues, Rudy is quite strong.
Rudy is widely popular and can bring together enough of the big middle to win. He loses the 2% fruit loopy liberals and the 2% coco puff conservatives, but most people just aren't that political. Most people have a good opinion of Rudy, and that's a good thing.
I can try and convince the GOP to select a better, truer conservative who has ALWAYS been solid on CORE conservative issues and doesn't NEED to flip-flop or have what amounts to a "jailhouse"-like, last minute (before the election) conversion.
I think I'll stick with the latter.
Exactly right!
Sprite isn't as good as 7 UP but it will do. Wendy's sounds good though. My favorite fast food place.
Lol! How many times can these folks post the same thing over and over again? They're shooting themselves in the foot, imo...
Utter nonsense. Hunter is not a surrender monkey and I have no idea why the poster would make such a silly claim.
Forget the Sprite then, make it a Frosty!
Lets keep an eye on this one.
And always remember it is indeed his chart. Ask for a link to every single data point otherwise it is meaningless and without attribution. Its easy to 'find' statistics unfavorable to someone on sites that are aganst that individual. I have seen stuff posted about Rudy here from a Hillary site.
I could make a Jim chart same way. I prefer independant polls good or bad I didn't make them and you can argue with the poll makers. Before you say all polls are meaningless they predicted the 2006 rout while we sat here on FR making fun of them.
For sure.
My little Allie eats her frosty by dipping her french fries in it. Yech!
Lumping ANY pro-war candidate with Hagel is a major league insult and falsehood.
Heck, if Hagel was walking down the streets of DC feeding his ego by talking to a CNN camera crew as he went about his way, I would be looking for a manhole cover to open in his path.
Jesus, Mary, and Joseph! Could you please just knock it off?
I am absolutely amazed at the number of Rudy/Mitt bashers telling other posters - even poster who have been here a good bit of time -- that they don't belong on FR because of something they post.
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