Posted on 02/02/2007 4:47:11 PM PST by PhiKapMom
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
New York, Feb 2 -
To:
Team Rudy
From:
Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:
February 2, 2007
Re:
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.
Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.
According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:
In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”
In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.
The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.
Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:
|
State |
Mayor Giuliani |
Closest Competitor |
Source |
| California | 33% | 19% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 11-17 |
| Florida | 30% | 16% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 4-9 |
| Illinois | 33% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-14 |
| Michigan | 34% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 4-7 |
| Nevada | 31% | 25% (McCain) | ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06 |
| New Jersey | 39% | 21% (McCain) | Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22 |
| North Carolina | 34% | 26% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-15 |
| Ohio | 30% | 22% (McCain) | Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28 |
| Pennsylvania | 35% | 25% (McCain) | ARG Jan. 4-8 |
| Texas | 28% | 26% (McCain) | Baselice Jan. 17-21 |
Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.
Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.
While we are waging one of the the biggest fights of our lives the Unappeaseables are gnashing their teeth over Rudy in nylons!
Duncan Hunter will languish at the bottom of the pile.
It's really an uphill fight.
His ridiculous statement about not needing 100 million dollars, because he is and always has been a Conservative, makes him look like a blithering idiot.
He has NO managerial or real business experience.
Twenty-six years in the House and not much to show for it, does NOT engender a whole lot of confidence in the man.
All of those in the running need to be looked at and carefully!
That's what I've always believed since 9/11. This isn't a religious war of which religion is better, it's a war of the survival of civilization against those who will stop at nothing to destroy civilization in an unswarthy and uncivilized manner.
YIKES!
Yes, I know and a boring one.
I'm tired. Going to bundle up and watch my TIVO'd PAD from my comfy couch.
G'Night all.
I have no real opinion on Hunter's character ... but he is not a VIABLE candidate.
Duncan Hunter is DOA.
That's why I use my PowerBook. You can Freep while Tivo'ing. :)
Attagirl!
How many people on FR, right now, not only don't give a damn that N.Y.C. was hit, but are glad that it was and hope that it gets NUKED? And yes, I have read way too many posts like that here, which weren't posted by newbies, BTW.
I used to thing that Dems "feel", but that Conservatives THINK. No more; I have been shown the error of that thought by many posters to FR.
Nighty night onyx.....
Yes, he is, as are Paul, Tancredo, and Hagel. Brownback and Huckabee don't have a chance either and Newt is playing coy games. But IF he does get in, he isn't just toast, he's burnt toast CRUMBS!
Hunter is certainly aware of his negatives. But I think his message is now more important than any electoral prospect he might reasonably have. McCain and Rudy seem destined to have it out; and Duncan, with a little bit of creativity, might be able to nudge one or both of them to the right as the plot thickens.
Then there's this:
San Diego Union-Tribune: Hunter got break on taxes for home [October 8, 2006]
I agree this is a tactic and a legitimate one at that.
Rudy is a savvy politician, he knows his deficiencies. I know he will answer the people who do not like his policies on guns, gays and abortion. I hope that he is persuasive.
But, yes, nudging an opponent is an honorable thing.
Thanks for the link! It was quite an eye opener and doesn't pass the smell test at all.
I remember that particular report, as FOX News had a similar story on Special Report. It went on to say that Hunter lobbied the federal government to get a 4-lane highway built close to his home. Which made no sense to me. The last thing I want is double the amount of traffic going by my home.
Hmmm ... Bookmark.
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