Posted on 02/02/2007 4:47:11 PM PST by PhiKapMom
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
New York, Feb 2 -
To:
Team Rudy
From:
Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:
February 2, 2007
Re:
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.
Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.
According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:
In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”
In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.
The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.
Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:
|
State |
Mayor Giuliani |
Closest Competitor |
Source |
| California | 33% | 19% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 11-17 |
| Florida | 30% | 16% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 4-9 |
| Illinois | 33% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-14 |
| Michigan | 34% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 4-7 |
| Nevada | 31% | 25% (McCain) | ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06 |
| New Jersey | 39% | 21% (McCain) | Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22 |
| North Carolina | 34% | 26% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-15 |
| Ohio | 30% | 22% (McCain) | Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28 |
| Pennsylvania | 35% | 25% (McCain) | ARG Jan. 4-8 |
| Texas | 28% | 26% (McCain) | Baselice Jan. 17-21 |
Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.
Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.
So, you're ready to crown Rudy now, eh, onyx?
Same here!
This is very true; lots of issues around here.
We have been over this before...your a good guy but checkmate.
Feb. 5, 2008, may become Super-Duper Tuesday with, perhaps, Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Utah voting on the same day..
Think about that. That means that some obscure nominee won't be able to go to IA and NH shake some hands and come from nowhere.
They will need an entire national ground game and close to 100 million to buy radio and TV ads within a few months.
They have to make the ads ....hire thousands of people..pollsters...consultants...the logistics in this time constraints are staggering.
There are 5-6 people in the country who can pull that off. Rudy,Romney,McCaine, Hillary and maybe Obama, Colin Powell,Edwards.
They front loaded the primaries. It's pretty much game over. Unless Rudy runs as a liberal...which we know he won't..or pulls a Dean Scream...he's to smart for that...game over.....only Romney could keep up...and he's not so bad. McCaine is too damaged and old.
Anyone polling in single digits is already toast.
Whatever.
I thought they were states rights issues as well but this group wants the Government nanny state it looks like. As long as I can remember states rights were a conservative cause!
I still have a copy of the contract that was either a supplement or a special section of the TV Guide.
You don't have to respond to EVERY post that might make somebody think a thought you don't agree with, EV.
Yeah, earlier today you were trying to pass off the idea that this is "late in the game." It's laughable. A year is forever in politics.
ROFLMAO!!!
Whatever, Howlin.
Actually, I like Mitt better at this very juncture, but I haven't selected my candidate yet.
I post them only once per thread. That's not spam.
On this thread I thought it would be nice to get through one page without the idiotic stuff that you folks spam.
But good try, FA. I'm noy surprised.
You've got nothing, have you?
You look down your nose at us and yet here you sit, night after night, trying to best of.
It just ain't ever gonna happen.
But keep coming back for more; we enjoy it.
I was supposed to go to the State Committee Meeting tomorrow but Dr. Coburn cancelled his speech at the luncheon. I have stayed up so late, I am staying home! Too cold to go out anyway.
Ah well, not much difference, except Mitt's lived a clean personal life, and perhaps spins better than Giuliani.
This is kind of a social thing...well, depending on if there were refreshments and maybe lemon bars served.
Way too cold and it's not as cold here as what you're experiencing. I am almost a recluse this winter.
This confused me for a long time, because I, like you, thought it was a lot of states' rights issues; and then it came to me, they don't want ANY religion in the schools, except the ones they like.
And they don't want ANY sex education in school, except the one they agree with.
You get the picture.
And that's when I realized how ironic it is that some of them keep posting "you can't tell the difference between the GOP and the DNC."
Because you can't.
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