[Doctor Stochastic]

Is it not a mathematical fact that, the bigger the deck of cards and choices, the lower the probability?

Not in the sense being discussed here. Sample statistics reflect population statistics with errors depending on the size of the sample, not the size of the population. In blackjack, the probability of getting an Ace (from afresh shoe) is 1/13, no matter how many decks are in the shoe.

[Fester Chugabrew]

Sample statistics reflect population statistics with errors depending on the size of the sample, not the size of the population.

With the geologic record it is not just the size of the population that matters but also the variety of contents. The 1/13 probability in a deck of cards is attributed to the number of suits, not just the number of cards and the number sampled. There are at least three factors involving an accurate assessment of the record:

1.) How many varities of substance are present
2.) How much substance is present
3.) How much has been sampled

And so, where exposure and alaysis of the geologic data is concerned I am not one to make leaps of faith like theories of evolution do. Seeing is believing when it comes to science. Conjecture is fact when it comes to theories of evolution.