Las Vegas was built on people with your understanding of probability (but with a greater propensity to gamble though.) The probability of 1 club is 13/52, if you draw without replacement the second club has the probability of 12/51; multiplying gives 156/2652 or about 6%, not rare.
Of course, using your reasoning about cards, as all examples of geologic columns support the conventional view, the whole Earth is described by the conventional geology. After all, the second sample agreed with the first, as did the third, and the thousandth.
First of all, I doubt there is as much agreement as you imply. I haven't seen it myself. I don't trust textbooks written by folks who go at their exploration with a particular outcome in view. Hence, like most scientists, I remain a skeptic until the evidence is presented in its fulness.
Second, the size of the earth makes the number of samples taken to date more or less insignificant. Is it not a mathematical fact that, the bigger the deck of cards and choices, the lower the probability? The sheer volume of geological data most likely makes for probability akin to a singal individual winning all the lotteries on the same day.
Lastly, since evolution theories have adopted an arbitrary process that will fit the evidence no matter how it turns up, they have no more credibility in describing objective reality than simple declarations such as "God did it."