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Transcribed from a speech given by Paul Singer of Elliott Management Investing is an art, more so than a science. And for me, what I get paid for is managing the “dark art,” if you will, of risk management and trying to be a visionary and having a dark vision at all times about what can go wrong. It’s a particularly fruitful and impactful time to be thinking about risk management and the thing I want talk about today is what I’ve described as “The Shape of the Next Crisis.” That doesn’t mean we’re going to be talking about the...

The federal government ran a deficit of $292 billion for the first two months of fiscal year 2013 – October and November 2012 – amounting to $4.8 billion of borrowed money each day. “The federal budget deficit was $292 billion for the first two months of fiscal year 2013, $57 billion more than the shortfall recorded in October and November of last year,” CBO said in its Monthly Budget Review Friday. This means that the government borrowed $4.8 billion for each calendar day so far in 2013. If the Treasury Department restricted its borrowing to only weekdays, its per day...

The Washington Post had interesting article about solving the debt ceiling “crisis.” The author recommended that Treasury produce two-one trillion dollar platinum coins and deposit them at The Fed. “I like it,” says Joseph Gagnon of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “There’s nothing that’s obviously economically problematic about it.” Actually, Mr. Gagnon, there are a few problems with it. 1. Moral hazard. The President orders trillion dollar coins to be produced, then gives one each to campaign donors and other party favorites (note that I did not mention our current President by name since this would be a temptation...

The Washington Post had interesting article about solving the debt ceiling “crisis.” The author recommended that Treasury produce two-one trillion dollar platinum coins and deposit them at The Fed. “I like it,” says Joseph Gagnon of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “There’s nothing that’s obviously economically problematic about it.” Actually, Mr. Gagnon, there are a few problems with it. 1. Moral hazard. The President orders trillion dollar coins to be produced, then gives one each to campaign donors and other party favorites (note that I did not mention our current President by name since this would be a temptation...

In fact, Ms. Watson said it was the President’s obligation to help Detroit because “our people in an overwhelming way” voted for him, so “there ought to be a quid pro quo.” Because 75% of Wayne County voters supported Obama, Watson says that Detroit leaders should bring home “some bacon” as they did during the Jimmy Carter administration. Maybe Ms. Watson does not realize that vote buying is illegal. Her attitude is typical of many Obama supporters who want something such as a check, a phone, a job or in this case “some bacon” from the federal government.

If Congress allows current laws signed by President Barack Obama to stand and follows the fiscal path they have set for the next decade, federal tax revenues will rise to a record level as a percentage GDP, according to the Congressional Budget Office, but annual federal spending will also increase by 55 percent and continuous deficits will require Congress to lift the federal debt limit by another $4.25 trillion even as the government rakes in unprecedented tax revenue. Under the so-called "fiscal cliff" scenario, in which all of the Bush tax cuts are allowed to expire and “sequestration” of some...

From the U.S. to Germany and even Japan, where the bond market is twice the size of the economy, investors can’t get enough government securities even though rising debt loads are blamed for curbing global growth. This comes as hourly wage income in the US slowed dramatically after January 31, 2009. To counter the economic malaise, benchmark interest rates are close to zero in the U.S. and Japan and are a record low 0.75 percent in Europe. Investors remain jittery about economic prospects in the US, Europe and Japan. And the mode of US Treasury debt comes due in 2013....

The latest round of extraordinary Federal Reserve stimulus is risky and leaves little room to maneuver....

video 28:06

President Clinton loves to mention how he raised taxes in 1993 and generated a positive budget balance (in 1998, 1999 and 2000). But let’s take a closer look at the link between Clinton’s tax increase and the later budget surpluses. In 1993, President Clinton signed a massive tax increase that included: – An increase in the individual income tax rate to 36 percent and a 10 percent surcharge for the highest earners, thereby effectively creating a top rate of 39.6 percent. What is not mentioned by President Clinton is the 1997 Tax Cut. The Republican-led Congress passed a tax-relief and...

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble questioned on Tuesday how the United States could deal with its high levels of government debt after November's presidential election.

Most people don't understand the unsolvable problem the U.S. government has created for itself and its citizens. Sovereign default is beyond a likelihood; it is inevitable. When and which (possibly all) obligations are defaulted on will be determined by panicked politicians under duress. A complete financial and economic collapse appears unavoidable. I hope that is the worst that will occur. Official Government Debt The official federal debt is $16 trillion. This debt represents 100% of current GDP. Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart studied countries with high levels of government debt. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly contains...

All this talk about "stimulus packages" and "bailouts"... A billion dollars... A hundred billion dollars... Eight hundred billion dollars... One TRILLION dollars... What does that look like?

<p>Republicans and Democrats spent last summer battling how best to save $2.1 trillion over the next decade. They are spending this summer battling how best to not save $2.1 trillion over the next decade.</p> <p>In the course of that year, the U.S. government’s fiscal gap --- the true measure of the nation’s indebtedness " rose by $11 trillion.</p>

By the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2012, the new debt accumulated in this fiscal year by the federal government had already exceeded $1 trillion, making this fiscal year the fifth straight in which the federal government has increased its debt by more than a trillion dollars, according to official debt numbers published by the U.S. Treasury. Prior to fiscal 2008, the federal government had never increased its debt by as much as $1 trillion in a single fiscal year. From fiscal 2008 onward, however, the federal government has increased its debt by at least $1 trillion each...

Based on official 2010 International Monetary Fund data released earlier this year, the U.S. debt per capita is $46,208. Here's the same figure for the four European countries that have accepted bailouts. Ireland: $41,906 Greece: $38,159 Portugal: $19,686 Spain: $18,162 -snip- If "intra-governmental holdings" are excluded, the U.S. debt per capita falls to $34,285 -- and slips below Greece and Ireland, but above that of Portugal and Spain.

Earlier today, Angela Merkel issued a dramatic ultimatum about sharing debt loads with other Eurozone countries. We've often discussed how this would actually be something of a silver bullet to solving Europe's PIGS problem. Now, we have a map that helps illustrate the point — thanks to our friends at the Economist, by way of Taegan Goddard and Matt Yglesias. Below you'll see the geography of net federal transfer payments in the U.S. by state. The more pink the state, the more it takes out of the federal pot than it puts in...(or, if you prefer, the more freeloading off...

(CNSNews.com) - Since President Barack Obama was inaugurated in January 2009, the Federal Reserve’s holdings of U.S. government debt have quintupled, according to the Fed’s official monthly balance sheet. On Jan. 28, 2009, a week after Obama’s nomination, the Fed owned $302 billion in U.S. Treasury securities. On April 25, 2012, the latest date reported, the Fed owned five and a half time that much in U.S. Treasury securities--$1.668 trillion. That is an increase from January 2009 of $1.366 trillion—or 452 percent. Under Obama, the Federal Reserve has become the single largest owner of U.S. government debt. When Obama entered...

Jasch wrote: There's a difference between saving jobs and creating them. The GM/Chrysler bailouts simply put....just saved the companies from bankruptcy and lay-offs. - Obama is Latest Surrogate to Break with ObamaDear Jasch,Actually the bailout did neither.Chrysler and GM still filed for bankruptcy and workers got laid off. Of course the only workers who got rehired were workers who were part of the UAW. All the non-UAW people were left out in the cold.As to the bankruptcy, the government insisted on the bankruptcy because it was the easiest way to screw the secured creditors and turn over the companies to...

WASHINGTON — Foreign demand for U.S. Treasury securities rose to a record high in March. China, the largest buyer of Treasury debt, increased its holdings for a third straight month. Total foreign holdings rose 0.3 percent to a $5.12 trillion, marking the eighth consecutive monthly increase, the Treasury Department reported Tuesday. U.S. government debt is considered one of the safest investments. Demand has increased as investors worry about the uncertainty surrounding Europe’s debt crisis. China boosted its holdings 1.3 percent to $1.17 trillion, its third straight increase. China had trimmed its holdings for five straight months before the January increase....