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Released: October 07, 2008 Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 48%, McCain 45% as Presidential Race Enters Final Month The three-day telephone tracking poll shows neither candidate with a clear advantage in the national horserace UTICA, New York - The race for President of the United States remains far too close to call between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain as the contest enters its last four weeks, and with a pair of crucial debates immediately ahead, the first report of the fall Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone polls shows. Data from this poll is available here The survey, including a three-day...

New Polls Show Tight McCain-Obama Race in Indiana By the Associated Press 10/7/2008 Two new polls show a tight race in Indiana between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain just weeks before the Nov. 4 election. A WISH-TV Indiana poll found Obama and McCain each supported by 46 percent of likely voters, with 5 percent undecided and 3 percent saying they favored another candidate.

Democracy Corps Poll (James Carville's poll): Obama 48%, McCain 45% You know things are getting weird when the best polling news comes from James Carville!

CBS Poll: Presidential Race Tightens Democrat Barack Obama Retaining Small Lead Over McCain More Than Half Of Americans Polled Disapprove Of Bailout NEW YORK (CBS) ― In a sign that the race for president has returned to about where it was before the first presidential debate, the Obama-Biden ticket leads the McCain-Palin ticket 47 percent to 43 percent among registered voters in a new CBS News poll. The Obama-Biden ticket led by a wider margin, nine percentage points, in a CBS News poll released last Wednesday, before Joe Biden and Sarah Palin faced off in the vice presidential debate. Obama-Biden...

A new poll by Suffolk University shows Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) with a double-digit lead over GOP nominee John McCain in Virginia. Obama draws 51 percent to McCain's 39 percent, although the poll's sample skews heavily toward the Democrats, which may be inflating Obama's margin. "Barack Obama has built a coalition of suburban DC area progressives from the north, African-American voters from the south, and young voters statewide," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. "That broad-based support suggests a 44-year Republican run in the Old Dominion State, dating back to Lyndon Johnson's...

Election

After months of showing the U.S. Senate race as a statistical dead heat, the latest SurveyUSA poll finds Norm Coleman with a solid 10-point lead. The incumbent draws support from 43 percent of respondents, with Democrat Al Franken trailing at 33 percent. Perhaps most notable, however, is the strong showing of Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley. Despite his late entry into the race and raising almost no money, Barkley garners support from 19 percent of those polled. Assessments of the IP candidate’s strength have varied widely in recent weeks. A pair of polls last month showed him in double digits,...

The race for Washington’s next Governor is now a tie. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds incumbent Christine Gregoire and challenger Dino Rossi each attracting 48% of the vote. Gregoire is viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 47%. Her job performance is rated 43% good or excellent from voters, while 35% say she is doing a poor job. Former State Senator Rossi’s ratings are 50% favorable, 48% unfavorable. This year’s race has been anything but steady. Last month, Rossi pulled ahead of the governor, 52% to 46%, after trailing behind by four percentage points in...

Likely voters give the Democrat a slight nod on his debate performance and in his overall handling of the current financial crisis Utica, New York – Likely voters nationwide who watched Friday’s debate in Mississippi between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain gave Obama the win by the slightest of margins, a new Zogby Interactive survey shows. The poll shows that 44% believed Obama won the debate, while 41% said McCain did. Another 16% said they watched the debate but were unsure who came out on top...

I wrote the following post in response to some handwringing by people who think that the polls, particularly the sate polls, are portending an Obama presidency. I think it is good to have a little historical perspective. Unfortunately, we Americans have short attention spans, and this extends to our knowledge of recent electoral history, which is a far better predictor of electoral behavior than even election day polls (Didn't 2004 teach us anything?!) As the Gipper would say, let me take all the nervous nellies on a little walk down memory lane: In response to those who feel the election...

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Ohio finds John McCain with 47% of the vote while Barack Obama picks up 46%. That’s a slippage of three percentage points for McCain since Sunday night. In four previous surveys conducted over the past month, McCain has held an advantage ranging from three to seven points. Similar trends have been found nationally as the recent economic crisis has unfolded: Support for McCain has declined while Obama’s totals remain steady.

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. presidential race is a statistical dead heat, with Republican John McCain leading Democrat Barack Obama by two percentage points, according to a poll taken in mid-September. The Franklin and Marshall College Poll showed McCain was supported by 45 percent of respondents, compared to Obama's 43 percent. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 2.7 percent. The survey was taken before President George W. Bush's request for $700 billion to bail out the financial industry

Barack Obama has a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 46 percent lead over John McCain among registered voters with two percent choosing neither and 3 percent undecided in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey conducted Sept. 19-22. The margin of error is 3 points and the numbers includes leaners. Obama had led by 3 points in August and by 6 points in July. This poll differs from this week's Washington Post/ABC News and Fox News which both had Obama regaining statistically significant leads. more at link

The latest TODAY Show/NBC/Mason-Dixon poll has McCain ahead in the Old Dominion overall by three points, 47 to 44 percent. The "Today Show" reports that Barack Obama is ahead in Northern Virginia by a 55-37 margin, and McCain leads the crucial Hampton Roads area by 48-44. Just yesterday, the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll put Obama ahead in the state overall by three points.

One reason that Sen. McCain may remain competitive: The survey shows that voters have grown even angrier about the direction of country than they were over the summer, a sentiment that the Arizona lawmaker has appealed to with a passionate populist message. For more than a week, he has eviscerated Wall Street and Washington alike for the greed, corruption and incompetence he says lie behind the financial meltdown. At the same time, a majority of voters still believe Sen. Obama is best able to handle the economy, and many more believe he would bring real change to the country than...

Executive Summary On the eve of the first presidential debate, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and Public Opinion Strategies conducted a bipartisan survey of the presidential battleground states for National Public Radio. The survey was based on interviews with 800 likely voters in the 14 states that will decide the presidency. The survey shows intense interest and nearly universal intention to watch the upcoming debates: 62 percent are “very likely” to watch the first presidential debate (up from 51 percent in 2000 before the Gore-Bush debate). Expectations are high for Obama, as a near majority of 49 percent expect him to...

Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain remain in a tight race in a new poll of Minnesota's presidential preferences. The poll of likely Minnesota voters conducted by Quinnipiac University has Obama leading McCain by a 47 percent to 45 percent, which is within the margin of sampling error. In July, the same pollsters also had Obama ahead by a couple of percentage points. The poll of 1,301 Minnesota voters was commissioned by The Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post.com. Surveys for Colorado, Michigan and Wisconsin were released simultaneously — all showing bare Obama advantages.

Battleground Poll Tracking McCain (48%) Obama (47%) released 9/22/08. If you click "Battleground" you get a PDF file of the poll internals.

A new St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll shows a neck-and-neck race, with Republican John McCain backed by 47 percent of registered Florida voters surveyed, Democrat Barack Obama by 45 percent.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows no change from yesterday as Barack Obama attracts 48% of the vote while John McCain earns 47%. Obama has gained ground over the past week after trailing by three percentage points last Sunday. The race is now back where it was for most of August before the two conventions and the Vice Presidential picks

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain in national voter preferences for the presidential election, now by a four percentage point margin, 49% to 45%

Democrat Barack Obama is barely ahead of Republican John McCain in the North Star State, according to a poll by the University of Wisconsin-Madison. 47 per cent of respondents would back the Illinois senator in this year’s United States presidential election, while 45 per cent would vote for the Arizona senator.

New York, NY - Today's Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll shows that the Presidential race is still neck and neck, (Obama-Biden, 45% - McCain-Palin, 44%). Presidential General Election, McCain-Palin v. Obama-Biden, September 17-19, 2008

A new Michigan Poll hit the front page of the Detroit News this morning Obama 43% to McCain 42%. http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080920/POLITICS01/809200358

John McCain has pulled within four points of Barack Obama in Maine. That’s the closest he has been in any of the six monthly polls Rasmussen Reports has conducted in the state since April. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Maine voters finds Obama with 50% of the vote and McCain with 46%

The surveys show a tight race in all of the Big Ten states except for Obama’s home state of Illinois, where he holds a 16-point lead over McCain. The two candidates are tied in Iowa and Pennsylvania, and Obama has just a one-point lead in Ohio and Wisconsin. McCain is ahead in just one state — Indiana — where he leads by 4 percentage points. “The close margins in the vast majority of states show that whatever the effects were immediately after the national party conventions, these states have moved back to a highly competitive status, with neither candidate having...

The presidential race continues to tighten in Wisconsin, where Barack Obama now leads John McCain by just two percentage points, 48% to 46%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

09/17 Wisconsin Leaning Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 207 - McCain 227 McCain +0.6 09/17 North Carolina Solid McCain »»» Leaning McCain Obama 207 - McCain 227 McCain +0.6 09/17 Washington Leaning Obama »»» Solid Obama Obama 207 - McCain 227 McCain +0.6 09/14 Minnesota Leaning Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 207 - McCain 227 McCain +2.1 09/13 Indiana Toss Up »»» Leaning McCain Obama 217 - McCain 227 McCain +2.4

PRINCETON, NJ -- The Sept. 14-16 Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows Barack Obama regaining a slight, although not statistically significant, edge over John McCain, 47% to 45%, among registered voters, marking the first time since the week of the Republican National Convention that McCain has not held at least a one percentage point margin over Obama. From a broad perspective, the race remains a statistical tie. But there has been a general drift towards Obama since McCain moved to a five-point lead over Obama through the weekend after the GOP convention. Today's report includes two days of interviewing conducted...

John McCain has taken a modest lead over Barack Obama in Colorado this week. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds the Republican on top 48% to 46% (crosstabs available for Premium Members).

Polls in 11 battleground states show Obama retains narrow lead as 78 Electoral College votes still a toss-upUTICA, New York—An Electoral College tidal wave has followed the surge of interest in the rejuvenated Republican presidential ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, nearly erasing a once-daunting Democratic advantage and creating a race for the White House that is nearly dead-level even. The latest Zogby Interactive polling in 11 key battleground states, and a further analysis of polling in other states, has resulted in the recalibration of the Zogby Electoral College Map, available at www.zogby.com. In this latest Zogby calculation, Obama/Biden...

This is their three-day tracker, which means it incorporates two full days of reaction to Thursday night’s Charlie Gibson interview. As usual, the difference lies in the ratio of McCainocrats to Obamicans, something you’d never know from the media’s coverage of The One’s supposed post-partisan appeal: McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 53%… McCain is supported by 90% of Republicans and has a six-point edge among unaffiliated voters. Eighty-two percent (82%) of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama… The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows McCain leading in states...

Minnessota goes from OBAMA to TOSS UP !! TOWARD VICTORY !!

One Month, Two Conventions, and Two VP Picks Later, Presidential Race Unchanged in Minnesota: In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 09/12/08, 53 days to Election Day, Barack Obama and John McCain finish effectively even, according to this exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis, WDIO-TV in Duluth, KAAL-TV in Rochester, and KSAX-TV in Alexandria. Today, it's Obama 49%, McCain 47%, within the survey's 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, Obama and McCain are each up two points overall. Little has changed, and...

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows 47% of registered voters preferring John McCain and 45% Barack Obama when asked whom they would vote for if the presidential election were held today.

These results, based on interviewing conducted Wednesday through Friday, indicate that the presidential contest is -- for now, at any rate -- settling back into the close race that it was before the two weeks that marked both candidates' selections of their vice presidential running mates and the two conventions. In the weekend before the Democratic convention, the race was tied 45% to 45%. Now, as the "convention dust" is settling, the race is at 47% McCain, 45% Obama, only slightly different.

Final Topline Results (9/12/08) N = 1,038 registered voters, screened from 1,204 adults. 18+ Margin of error: plus or minus 3.8 Interviewing dates: 9/10-11/08 Notes: Data are weighted so that sample demographics match Census Current Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race, region, and population density. Results based on smaller subgroups are subject to larger margins of sampling error. Sample size and margins of error for these subgroups are included in a separate methodology statement. An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%.

Obama's 12 point lead prior to the conventions is now 2 points. Unaffiliated Washington state voters now favor McCain 48-43.

This Marist Poll reports: Presidential Race in New Jersey · Democratic Presidential Candidate Barack Obama Leads Republican Opponent John McCain by 7 Percentage Points in New Jersey: With 15 electoral votes up for grabs in New Jersey, 47% of registered voters in the state say they support Senator Barack Obama for president while 40% say they back Senator John McCain. That’s the same margin in New Jersey with which former Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry beat President George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential election. However, Obama’s lead shrinks when looking at likely voters, including those who are leaning toward...

Washington is the latest state to show a strong western surge for John McCain since he added Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Washington finds Barack Obama still ahead, but barely. It’s Obama 49%, McCain 47%. A month ago, Obama was up by twelve percentage points. Recent polls have shown McCain gains in Montana, New Mexico and North Dakota. Among Democrats, Obama now attracts 83% of the vote, down six points from last month. However, the big change comes among unaffiliated voters who now favor McCain by a 48% to 43%...

Washington is the latest state to show a strong western surge for John McCain since he added Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Washington finds Barack Obama still ahead, but barely. It’s Obama 49%, McCain 47%. A month ago, Obama was up by twelve percentage points. Recent polls have shown McCain gains in Montana, New Mexico and North Dakota. Among Democrats, Obama now attracts 83% of the vote, down six points from last month. However, the big change comes among unaffiliated voters who now favor McCain by a 48% to 43%...

September 11, 2008 Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll: Mind The Baby Gap The latest Diageo/Hotline daily tracking poll, released this a.m., shows McCain/Palin leading Obama/Biden 46-44% -- a 2% jump from yesterday's 45-45% tie. The GOP ticket has pulled nearly even among women and expanded its lead among men. Obama/Biden now leads women by just 2%, while McCain/Palin leads men by 7%. The Dem ticket led women by 5% on 9/9, while the GOP ticket had a comparable advantage with men. Likewise, on 9/7, the parties enjoyed 13% leads with women and men, respectively. Looking at party ID, McCain/Palin leads 89-4% among...

Barack Obama is holding onto a one point lead in Colorado, down from four in PPP's previous two polls of the state. Colorado continues a trend PPP has found in several battleground states this week of John McCain gaining support from white voters since the two party conventions. Where he led by just two points with that demographic in August, it is now six. Obama is winning overall in the state because of his overwhelming support from the state's growing Hispanic electorate, with which he has a 58-34 advantage. The traditionally red states of Virginia and Colorado are toss ups...

McCain takes lead in Michigan

LANCASTER, Pa. — Pennsylvania has voted for Democrats for president since 1992. But no one ever said winning it would be as easy for Senator Barack Obama as, say, ladling some Cheez Whiz onto one of Pat’s steaks. In April he managed to insult the state’s rural voters, saying they cling to their guns and religion because they are bitter about their economic plight. And he lost the state’s primary to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. Since winning the Democratic nomination, his campaign has labored to secure his standing here. It has conducted a ferocious voter registration drive, flooded the airwaves...

Strategic Vision will be releasing a survey of Pennsylvania tomorrow (Sept. 5-7, MoE +/-3.0%) showing Obama leading McCain by two points, 47-45, with 3% supporting other candidates and 5% undecided. That's a 7 point drop for Obama from SV's last poll taken in late July showing Obama ahead 49-40.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows the race for the White House is tied once again. John McCain and Barack Obama now each attract 46% of the vote. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 48% and Obama 48%.

Sen. John McCain appears to have gotten a nice bounce out of the Republican convention. A USA Today/Gallup poll puts him up 4 percentage points among registered voters and 10 points among likely voters. If you don't like those numbers, there's a new CNN poll that shows the race a dead heat. Still, from a parochial perspective, I'm still not seeing anything from the national prognosticators that moves Oregon or Washington out of the likely Democratic column. I think NBC does a good job tracking the electoral landscape, and here's how they put it, post-convention: Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE,...

New York, NY – The Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll finds that John McCain used last week’s Republican National Convention to bounce back from a 6-point deficit against Barack Obama in our September 5 Poll to make the race a dead-heat with 44% of voters supporting McCain, 44% of voters supporting Obama and 10% undecided.Presidential General Election, McCain-Palin vs. Obama-Biden, September 5 to 7, 2008 McCain-Palin Obama-Biden Undecided 44% 44% 10% Favorability Ratings for Presidential Candidates and their Running Mates, September 5 to 7, 2008   McCain Obama Palin Biden Favorable 54% 54% 48% 48% Unfavorable 38% 38% 24% 26% Ratings...

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama's advantage over John McCain has been shrinking since the start of the Republican National Convention, and is now down to just two percentage points -- 47% to 45% -- too close to call. This is according to Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Wednesday through Friday, Sept. 3-5.