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Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of September 1 September 1 Labor Day September 2 Markit PMI Manufacturing Index - August 57.5 55.8 57.8 ISM (Mfg) - August 57.1 57.1 56.8 ISM Prices 58.0 59.5 58.0 Construction Spending - July 0.8% -1.8 0.9 September 3 Auto Sales* - August 16.60M 16.48 16.60 Car Sales 8.00 8.00 Truck Sales 8.60 8.49 *SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence ADP Employment Report - August 120K 218 223 Factory Orders - June 11.1% 1.6 10.9 Durable Goods Orders Nondurable Goods Orders September 4 Initial Unemployment Claims 302K...

Food prices continue to go up and consumers are feeling the pinch. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the price of food has spiked to its highest rate since September 2011. Consumers are now paying more for such staples as ground beef, chicken and turkey, eggs, bacon, citrus fruit, coffee, peanut butter, and margarine. Normally, politicians would try to alleviate this financial strain on American families. Yet, this administration seems to want to make food more expensive.

August 23, 2014 Gary_Tanashian No matter the debates over inflation vs. deflation, increasing employment vs. sound monetary policy or systemic health vs. fragility (and whatever else is flying around in Jackson Hole this week), the CPI marches onward and upward. That is the system and it is predicated on creating enough money out of thin air while inflation signals are (somehow) held at bay. The Straw Man* in this argument lives in the idea that inflation is not always destructive, that inflation can be used for good and honed, massaged and targeted just right to achieve positive ends to defeat...

How far does $100 go? Today's map, which comes from the Tax Foundation and uses data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, answers that question state by state. In Mississippi, your $100 could buy $115.74 worth of stuff relative to the national average. On the other end of the spectrum is Hawaii, where you'd only get $85.32 worth. Washington, D.C. is even lower, at $84.60. The Tax Foundation offers a little perspective on how to read the map: Tennessee is a low-price state, where $100 will buy what would cost $110.25 in another state that is closer to the national...

(CNSNews.com) – The average price for all types of ground beef per pound hit its all-time high -- $3.884 per pound -- in the United States in July, according to data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). That was up from $3.880 per pound in June. A year ago, in July 2013, the average price for a pound of ground beef was $3.459 per pound. Since then, the average price for a pound of ground beef has gone up 42.1 cents--or about 12 percent. Five years ago, in July 2009, the average price for a pound of...

August 17, 2014 DailyWealth Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: A new record was set in Germany yesterday... The interest rate on a 10-year government bond in Germany fell below 1%. This number is shocking... Interest rates have never been this low in German history. What does it mean? Why would people agree to lend money to a government for 10 years with almost no return on that money? What is the message that we should take from this? Aren't things supposed to be getting back to "normal"? And doesn't "normal" mean something like this: By 2020, the Federal Reserve has short-term...

There's a lot of economic anxiety in America today, so it's no surprise that the Federal Reserve has discovered substantial pessimism about Americans' own personal financial situation. The Feds most recent survey shows that 1/3 of Americans believe themselves to be worse off 5 years after the recession ended.Wall Street Journal: More American households say they are worse off  rather than better five years after the recession, a new Federal Reserve survey found. The report, released for the first time on Thursday, found 34% of households said they were “somewhat worse” or “much worse” financially in 2013 compared to 2008....

Last Friday, for the first time in nearly a decade, Minnesota's minimum wage went up. The first in a series of incremental hikes brought the wage floor from $6.15 to $8 per hour for relatively large companies, and from $5.25 to $6.50 for small ones. As you'd expect, some businesses aren't thrilled about that -- especially bars and restaurants, as the new law doesn't include a tip exception. But the Oasis Cafe in Stillwater is generating a stir for transparently including a "Min Wage Fee" on all customer checks:

Corporate America can learn a lot from a chicken burrito. As many companies struggle to boost prices without alienating consumers, they may want to study Mexican-food chain Chipotle, which has managed to do both. Companies including Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG.N), Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and PepsiCo (PEP.N) have shown they're able to take advantage of quality, trendiness, and, in the case of Pepsi's snack foods, market dominance, to maintain high prices or even raise them faster than the inflation rate, now at about 2.1 percent in the U.S. Chipotle raised chicken-dish prices by 5 percent this year after leaving them...

Leslie Baehr and Skye GouldJuly 28, 2014Many factors could drive certain food costs up radically in the future. It could be as simple as soaring demand from new markets. It could be as complex as the effects of climate change rendering farm fields too hot or try or spreading plant-destroying pests to new areas.(snip)

Myles UdlandJuly 27, 2014 Wage growth is close to not being growth at all. On August 1, we'll get the latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Last month, the report showed that the economy added 288,000 jobs in June, with wages growing 2% year of year. Unfortunately, when taking into account the rate of inflation, "real" wage growth was flat. In Business Insider's latest Most Important Charts In The World feature, Ellen Zentner, senior U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, highlighted the following chart, which shows how real wage growth has slowed to, well, no growth at all.(snip)(snip)

Beneath all of the bogus economic data, the US economy is tanking again. One of the biggest games played by the bean counters in Washington in the US is the overstatement of GDP growth by understating inflation. Consider this simple example. Let’s say that the US GDP grew by 10% last year. Now let’s say that inflation also grew by 10%. In this scenario, real inflation adjusted GDP growth was ZERO. However, announcing ZERO GDP growth is a major problem politically. So what do the Feds do? They claim that inflation was just 8%, and BOOM you’ve got 2% GDP...

Last weekend, Governor Palin gave a measured and thoughtful speech at the Western Conservative Summit, speaking primarily in the tone of the “forgotten man”–”the hard working middle class man who can’t catch a break”. She also used a masterful analogy of the “calloused hand that built America”. What a stark contrast between an open hand calloused from hard work and the clenched fist of socialism. What a stark contrast, too, between Governor Palin’s speech that hit a tone that resonates with middle class America and the tonedeafness and lack of self-awareness of Washington. Take, for example, the Left’s newest pivot...

In the early-1990s, political Washington moved to change the nature of the CPI. The contention was that the CPI overstated inflation (it did not allow substitution of less-expensive hamburger for more-expensive steak). Both sides of the aisle and the financial media touted the benefits of a “more-accurate” CPI, one that would allow the substitution of goods and services. The plan was to reduce cost of living adjustments for government payments to Social Security recipients, etc. The cuts in reported inflation were an effort to reduce the federal deficit without anyone in Congress having to do the politically impossible: to vote...

Japanese CPI printed 3.6% in June, modestly down from May's 3.7% YoY, but hotter than the expected 3.5% YoY analysts predicted. If you don't eat food or use energy then inflation merely bit 2.3% of your income this year but if you did then you may have noticed that energy costs are 9.1% higher YoY, TVs +8.0%, and Food +4.1%

Call it doomsday prepper economics. For more than five years, many Republicans and conservatives have warned that catastrophe is nigh. Washington's deficit spending and the Federal Reserve's excessive money printing will lead to a financial crisis worse than the Great Recession, they prophesied. Inflation will skyrocket, the dollar will collapse, and the Chinese will dump treasuries, they swore. As Ron Paul, the libertarian former GOP congressman and presidential candidate, said back in 2009: "More inflation is absolutely the wrong way to go. We're taking a recession and trying to turn it into a depression. We're going to see a real...

Brace yourself… Skepticism, doubt and criticism of Obamanomics (all of which are, undoubtedly, based in racism) will be cast aside. Why? Because, according to the 20-something-year-old White House intern that is in charge of the official White House twitter account, “Our businesses have added nearly 10 million new jobs over the past 52 months.” I know, right? Pretty awesome statistic. (Gloss over the fact that the President is referring to private enterprise as “our businesses”.) But before you rush out to slap an Obama ‘16 sticker on your car (are those stickers available yet?), you may want a little bit...

"I can't find anything. Prices are climbing daily," said Jesus Ramirez, a taxi driver who has spent a year trying to replace the 2008 Renault he purchased new for $7,441. He sold the car for over $30,000 five years later. With inflation at 60% a year, among the highest in the world, Venezuelans protect their earnings by buying cars, among other big-ticket items. Car parts needed to keep vehicles on the road have also become difficult to find. That has led thieves to steal parts such as batteries from parked cars. The owner of a Caracas car dealership who said...

“Americans should stop whining about food prices.” That was the message AEI’s Mark J. Perry blasted last September to families gullible enough to believe that rising food prices were a problem: It’s a favorite pastime in this country – Americans love to complain about rising food prices. Even when they aren’t. In fact, given all of the complaining you would never know that average food price inflation in recent years is actually the lowest in several generations. Below are three reasons that Americans should stop whining about food prices, and be a little more appreciative of how affordable food is...

U.S. consumer prices rose in June as the cost of gasoline surged, but the overall trend continued to point to a gradual build up of inflationary pressures. The Labor Department said on Tuesday its Consumer Price Index increased 0.3 percent last month after May's 0.4 percent gain. Gasoline accounted for two-thirds of the rise in prices last month. In the 12 months through June, the CPI increased 2.1 percent after a similar rise in May.