Memories is nice.
Impy, regarding your point about the US breaking away: such are the accidents of history in which governments fall and nations born. A little betterand luckiergeneralship and wed have quickly suppressed the rebellion and that would have been that; Providence decreed otherwise, despite the lack of plebiscite.
Closer to home, support for Irish independence was not as popular as nationalist quarters pretend: while separatists won 80 of Irelands 105 seats in the 1918 GE, this was courtesy of only 36.27% of the electorate. 66 seats had no Unionist candidatesfive-eighths of Irelands seats were decided by a process that would embarrass a banana republic.
Nevertheless, there does seem to have been rising Irish support for Home Ruleillustrative is the trajectory of Robert Erskine Childers who went from empire-loyalist to 32 counties/physical force republican.
In Scotland, separatist feeling undoubtedly increased in the period leading up to 2014s referendum and afterwards: the SNPs 2010 GE results were average (12.73% of electorate) but nearly trebled a mere 5 years later to 35.52% (down to 24.51% as of 2017).
Dr. Ian F.W. Beckett noted the importance of long-term public commitments in COIN conflicts in Insurgency in Iraq: An Historical Perspective (U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, 2005), describing how premature announcements of withdrawal undermines the governmental authorities. No entity can expect loyalty if not intending to remain to reciprocate that loyalty. In addition to utilitarian motives for the transferring of loyalty, emotion is likely also a factor with feelings of betrayal arousing antipathy (you acknowledged how very painful separation must be to a patriot).
There is a real risk that opening the door to independence in and of itself promotes independenceGladstones embrace of Home Rule for Ireland likely encouraged Irish nationalism, and SNP support can be seen to rise in parallel with Westminster opening the door to independence, then fall as the door swings shut.
Putting independence on the table is like declaring to ones Significant Other, Feel free to leave any time you like, Ill not stand in your way. While superficially nice and civilised, many on the receiving end will perceive it as indifferenceevidence that the relationship is over. Many dont want to hear either their SO or their Motherlands government announcing: Youre free to leavestay or go, its up to you. What they want to hear is (as Toronto Prof. Jordan Peterson says describing the commitment of marriage): Were not running awayno matter what happens.