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Word must have come down from the Obama campaign that Pennsylvania may be lost to Romney, otherwise they would not want to risk having this story of Democratic thuggery go out across the country early enough to reach millions of people who have not voted yet.

I appreciate the information, but a thread works so much smoother if we don’t have to research each post to find out what the information provided means.

We are all in this fight together. I want to thank everyone who will spend hours waiting in line today for putting up with the incovenience of doing so.

Fight on!

When making reports about your location please indicate the nature of your location (heavy GOP leaning area or heavy Dem leaning, for example)

The hurricane has muddled our ability to see momentum.

It is easy to get a spike as President in the first three post-hurricane days, before the reports of all the problems and government failures seep into the news reports.

Because of polling lag, most of the most recent polls are still from that three day period or shortly thereafter. No polls truly reflect the last two days, they just can’t report that quickly.

So the momentum of the last few days is hidden from the public, but likely reflects a fast fading away of the bump Obama got in the immediate post-hurricane period.

My thoughts too.

People are willing to wait in line if they think their vote will matter.

If they think someone has a;ready won, and it doesn’t matter if it is their guy or the other guy, then they have no reason to waste hours of their time.

Nate Silver used to post in a poker forum as Nate tha’ Great. In 2004 he

started a Swing State prediction contest.

Link here:

http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=1190165&page=0&f

part=all&vc=1

He got the election wrong predicting a Kerry win. Kerry 275, Bush 263.

The states he got wrong:
He said Kerry would win AR, IA, and OH. Bush won all 3.
He said Bush would win WI. Kerry won it.

Nate has been wrong many times, and sometimes he guesses right too. But he

certainly is no expert, and certainly no better than any other commentator

or numbers cruncher.

Its not a swing state so there is no big turnout machine. What makes Ohio problematic is that the turnout machine Obama has there will make up for the lack of enthusiasm of his voters.

But there is no strong turnout machine in states like PA or MN or MI or WI. It could leave us with the situation where less GOP leaning states outperform Ohio for the simple reason that Obama’s campaign failed to arrange to drag unenthusiastic people to the polls as they made sure to do in Ohio.

The hurricane happened 5 days too early for Obama. Its easy to think he is handling it well one day after it hits, back when Christie et al were giving him praise, but as time passes, how badly he is doing there is becoming evident to all.

Staten Island is suffering, and yet NY will still go with Obama.

But PA will not, and many people in all states will take notice.

They say their are gas shortages in NJ. But it surely is not the whole state. Is it just coastal regions? and areas still without power? and how extensive are the out of power regions of the state at this point?

I assume that if you live less than 20 miles from the state of Pennsylvania you have no gas line problems.

I think the premise of this article is basically true.

Now there have to be people in the liberal press who will try to covertly tip off their audience about what they see is about to happen. They can’t just come out and say it forthrightly, because it might “depress the turnout” or be seen as disloyal to say such things before election day.

So what should we look for in the liberal media as evidence that they know what is about to happen?

How will they cover their asses (prediction wise) and let the insiders of their group know what really is going on? What should we look for for confirmation that they know it is coming?

The only states that could be affected in terms of the electoral college would be Pennsylvania and Virginia.

If the Philly area were hit hard while the rest of the state was not...

In VA it would depend which area was affected, the DC area or some area in southern VA. So it could go either way.

The storm is well ahead of election day, so I think we are talking only about long term power outages in terms of affecting turnout.

It would be interesting to see the last week or two of polling before each firm’s final poll. Sometimes a firm will show a significant move in the results over this period of time, and often in different directions than other polling firms. Were the 2004 Ohio polling numbers leading up to the final polls all over the map?

Strategic Vision is a political consulting firm that is still around today. They used to do a lot of public political polling until a few years ago. A decade ago they were well known among poll watchers like us.

I guess no one is hiring them to do publicly released political surveys these days since I don’t remember seeing any recently. Does anyone know?

Someone should run an ad featuring Dave Letterman agreeing that Obama lied about the Auto Bankruptcy position of Romney. Its an issue that plays in OH, and most people realize that Letterman is a liberal regarding politics.

The thing to do in a situation like this is to make an objective comment on the talk page documenting what changes were made and the context of the change (ie the recent Palin comment) so that there is a permanent indication of what liberal editors have done on the page.

Comments on talk pages tend to remain there forever, although they may be archived on active pages. Its good for people to stumble upon evidence like this sometime in the future.

Romney’s message was strong and in the vein of “We can’t take another four years of Obama’s economy and Obama’s policies”

It is the type of message that will be remembered. He repeated it in several variations over and over in the answers to many of the questions.

So yes, the debate was a win for Romney, message successfully sent and received by the independent voters out there.

You give a solid prediction and pretty much just as I see it. If Romney has a strong finish he could pick up IA, NH, NV too. If Obama has a strong finish he could take OH and possibly others for a win. A close race.

I hope Romney knows he needs to give America an optimistic vision of his potential presidency in the debates, like Reagan did.

——he added, he was “absolutely convinced” that people would support his campaign after watching his first debate with Obama, scheduled for next week.-——

His confidence in his upcoming debate performance is good to hear. He has been making few campaign trail appearances because of debate prep. Good

The debate is the best chance to communicate without the liberal media filter.

-——Much of the early action is in Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) counties.-——

The action in Cuyahoga County is not good. It suggests that the Obama campaign is working with pro-Obama voters to get them to vote early and ensure that they get a high turnout. And this all flies under the radar while letting Obama make up for the lack of enthusiasm on his side.

Maybe you can drag a bunch of unenthusiastic voters to vote for you if you have a whole month to do so.

——So I’m wondering if there’s more to these polls than we realize.——

Even if the polls are terribly skewed, there is still the issue of the trend. The past week has trended towards Obama and away from Romney. Even the unskewedpolls.com website shows this in their daily tracking poll - http://unskewedpolls.com/dailytrackingpoll.cfm

The Beatles were the band of the decade for the 1960s

Led Zeppelin was the band of the decade for the 1970s

I’ve never been able to figure out who the band of the decade for the 1980s 1990s or 2000s was though.

Rockville is on the route between the White House and Camp David. In the 1970’s I remember seeing convoys of about 3 Marine choppers flying overhead a lot.

The question is... Can current college students figure out that they are on the paying side and not the receiving side?

Sure they may receive a few pennies from govt while they are in college, but in 5 years, when they are gainfully employed using their college degree for earning power, they will be paying through the nose to support the government through their taxes.

In ten years, they will make huge transfer payments in the form of massively high taxes.

So many Obama supporting college students are stabbing themselves in the back fiscally by voting for Obama. Are they smart enough to figure it out today, that they are only temporary recipients of government money, but are long term donators of their money?

I hope conservative student groups will help other students think about this. The future tax payers of America should not be voting for Obama.

Lets hope some great clips of this speech go viral today

He was...

...honest
...understandable
...making good points
...dishing out some good one-liners
...delivering an effective case that we need to rid ourselves of Obama
...worth having in prime time for the American cause

Too many were expecting Christie’s speech to be an attack on Obama and so they missed the whole point of what it was about. The second half was quite optimistic. It was a call to action. It was a speech optimistic about the possibilities of how we can fix our current crisis.

It is the tone and message that Romney should take on Thursday, to say that despite all the gridlock and political problems in Washington, we can defeat our current crisis if we have the will to do so. That was Christie’s message.

And people didn’t hear much about the attack on the San Francisco church some years ago.

Bias by omission.

I think word came down from the Comm. in Chief’s people to find an excuse to postpone the trial until after Nov. 6th.

Wikipedia has its special uses, despite being a liberal dominated site.

With biographies and companies, the insiders do clean articles up when something breaking is about to happen.

Critics also like to dump negative information into articles. Of course these edits are reversed quickly. User tip: go to the history of the article and look at the larger versions (byte size) to get the dirt (unverified dirt of course, user beware)

I also use it for detailed plots of shows or movies, expanded details about real life events and anything else that I have an interest in. Again the watchers quickly reverse the over-detailed plots or exposition of whatever the article topic is, but I find what was written by looking into the history of the article.

Seeing what random interested people wrote before the self-appointed editors erase it, has been very informative to me in many cases in the past. At a minimum it can give you key subtopics to do a good web search on.

I have had the thought for several years now that other websites should create their own polling averages using whatever rules that they feel make the most accurate averages.

And then we can compare the poll aggregators in the same way we compare the polling firms, by seeing whose averages perform better over time as the most accurate.

I want to see threads that say something like: “In the 2014 election, the XYZ average performed the best, while the RCP and ZYX averages missed the mark.”

The low tech solution I have used:

1. Get a plastic grocery bag without any small holes in it
2. Put a small amount of smelly fruit peels and such in it
3. Let bag stand upright and open
4. After 15 minutes grab and close the top of the bag with your hand
5. Slowly push the air out of the top and squish the flies inside the bag with your fingers. This is fun and your hands remain clean because there are no holes in the plastic
6. Reopen the bag and stand it upright and open
7. Repeat over and over. Soon you will find fewer and fewer are caught each time as the population in the area goes down.

If you look at his filmography, he has appeared in nothing of any significance since the Star Wars series. Even though the list is quite long, its all “B” material, I guess he isn’t that well regarded as an actor.

btw RCP map sucks. Safe states and toss up states are very close color-wise. Makes map unusable.

I wrote off Brown’s chances for reelection the day he was elected in January 2010. I knew he would not ever get reelected. And nothing has changed about that.

But that is OK. He gave us the gift of breaking the 60 seat Senate supermajority for the year 2010, and as a bonus he kept a Democrat out of the seat for 2011 and 2012. From a state like Massachusetts, you have to accept the small gifts you receive from the voters. But we knew it would not last long. We may get another GOP senator in Massachusetts in another 20 years if we are lucky, but not this year.

The good news is there are several others states that look good for pick-ups this year, and I see a GOP majority as a result. We should ignore the liberal media’s obsession with the Massachusetts race and concentrate on the races that we can win.

Rush
Hannity
Beck

out of curiosity, who are the 4th 5th 6th highest paid or most listened to talk radio hosts?

If you throw a lot of mud against a wall, some of it will stick. The Democrats picked up seats this year and last year by having as many recall elections against Republicans as possible, only won a small number of the races, but those few mattered.

It is similar to the Gore 2000 strategy of only recounting votes in heavy Democrat Counties, knowing that whatever errors were made would be made more often by Democrat voters for the simple reason that there were a higher percentage of their voters in those selected counties than would be statewide.

Both are forms of manipulating the process by being selective of where you attack.

In the general election, they don’t get to be selective, and the GOP will pick up the Wisconsin Senate majority again when that election happens.

Don’t forget to mention to all your liberal friends that it was Richard Nixon who gave the go ahead for the Apollo 11 Moon landing.

We should rename the Florida coast Cape Nixon.

If the the Democrats were thinking clearly they would believe her to be a bad Democrat.

She was aware of the past affair while John was running for President and while he was being considered as Obama’s VP choice. If he had been nominated for either post, the affair would have been revealed in the general election and would have cost the Democrats a lot electorally. Only a bad Democrat would allow the possibility of that happening.

She allowed it. Clearly she was selfish and did not put the Democrat party first.

The class of 2012 and the class of 2014 were elected in Democrat wave years, and there are quite a few Democrats who won narrowly in their elections like Jon Tester and Jim Webb. Yes, we should be able to pick up quite a few seats in normally Republican leaning states.

Brown of Massachusetts is toast, but that is OK - he served his purpose of ending the filibuster safe majority this year and reducing the Dem majority for the upcoming two years.

So why was he held in Rikers Island for two months?

After a few days investigation he should have been released to wait for the decision of the Grand jury.

I’m surprised he got Scott Brown’s name right.

Isn’t this a change in the official position of the White House about what happened?

I seem to recall that at the time they denied it was in fact a bow at all.

Now it seems he is saying he did bow, (but it should not be a big deal.)

We need some separate bumper stickers or graphics of that slogan in the bottom right corner of the second image. I like that acronym :)

Imus is best when there is breaking news and he brings in people from both sides to discuss it. He gets to the point and cuts through the spin and talking points others bring to the table.

The post-2000 election recount period was the best period for his show ever.

I used to leave the fawcetts attached to the hoses of my clothes washer on all the time, until one day one of the hoses developed a big leak, probably from being under pressure 24/7.

I don’t think its unusual for people to jerry rig things right up to the edge, where it takes only one oversight to something minor to fail or for a person to forget something to cause havoc.

Smoking in bed....

Forgetiing to turn off the stove before leaving the house...

Is Merlin sci fi or fantasy?

There are all sorts of fantasy shows - think witches or paranormal activities or super heroes etc.

What is the specific definition of sci fi for the purposes of these threads?

The Attack on FR thread that was on the top of the Dem Underground’s Greatest Discussion threads list has now disappeared.

Just remember that they will use Imus as the precedent to go after Rush or Shaun et al at some point in the future.

We should not let the race hustlers silence anyone, even if we do not care to listen to them.

“I care much less about the presidential race than the down-ticket races.”

I agree except for the issue of judges.

With Obama we will have a wave of liberal judges easily confirmed by a liberal Senate filling up the courts.

So we need to do what we can for all levels, down ticket and Presidential. It’s a holding action if nothing else.