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Republican Donald Trump should win the presidency by a slim margin according to a model that has accurately predicted the popular vote since 1988. Using several standards to make his prediction, Alan Abramowitz's "Time for Change" model done for the University of Virginia's Center for Politics "Crystal Ball" shows Trump winning 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent for Hillary Clinton. He added that the model shows a 66 percent chance of a Trump victory. "Based on a predicted vote share of 48.6 percent for the incumbent party, these results indicate that Trump should be a clear but not overwhelming favorite to...

You’ve seen all of the headlines by now, I’m sure, including several examples here at Hot Air. The polls have been piling up since the end of the conventions and the news for Donald Trump is uniformly bad. To follow the themes of this coverage, the man is getting beaten worse than Stone Hands Duran at the feet of Sugar Ray Leonard. (You young folks can go Google those names. No mas!) And to be sure, there’s no question that Hillary Clinton has gotten a significant bounce in the polls after her own acceptance speech in Philadelphia just as Trump...

Last night, Donald Trump called on Republicans to unite behind him and declared that only he could defeat Hillary Clinton. A new NBC/WSJ poll out this morning disputes that claim — although the general election is still a long way off. Trump loses to both Hillary and Bernie Sanders by double-digit margins in this sample of 1200 registered voters, but Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz look much more competitive: Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would handily defeat Donald Trump in a general election match-up, while a clash between Clinton and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz or Florida Sen. Marco Rubio...

Clinton would edge out Trump by 13 points in a one-on-one vote, 51 percent to 38 percent, in the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey. Trump, the controversial GOP front-runner, would lose even more soundly to Bernie Sanders should the Independent Vermont senator secure the Democratic nomination. Sanders bests Trump by 18 points, 55 to 37 percent. Sanders picked up a surprise win over Clinton in Michigan on Tuesday, though Clinton expanded her overall delegate lead. By comparison, Trump's rivals Sens. Marco Rubio(D-Fla.) and Ted Cruz (Texas) both fare better against the Democratic front-runner in the latest polling. Cruz and...

Gotta agree with Bill Kristol on this. Not good, especially when you consider that the poll was taken within the last week, with media coverage of her e-mail corruption peaking. This is way early, all adults, etc–but GOP should worry about these numbers Poll: Hillary Clinton still tops in 2016 http://t.co/WW7JrqlLsV— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) March 18, 2015 You’ll be hearing this a lot more over the next 20 months (eeyores gonna eeyore), but here’s the inaugural version of the 2016 campaign: Dude, I’m nervous. But none of the top candidates in this field gets within 10 points of Hillary...