Posted on 08/06/2016 11:13:39 AM PDT by MaxistheBest
You’ve seen all of the headlines by now, I’m sure, including several examples here at Hot Air. The polls have been piling up since the end of the conventions and the news for Donald Trump is uniformly bad. To follow the themes of this coverage, the man is getting beaten worse than Stone Hands Duran at the feet of Sugar Ray Leonard. (You young folks can go Google those names. No mas!) And to be sure, there’s no question that Hillary Clinton has gotten a significant bounce in the polls after her own acceptance speech in Philadelphia just as Trump did after the big party in Cleveland. But is The Donald really out of the running? While the other polls were drawing all the gloom and doom headlines on CNN and MSNBC, the ongoing Reuters-Ipsos survey had a diffferent story to tell.
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s lead over Republican rival Donald Trump narrowed to less than 3 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Friday, down from nearly eight points on Monday.
About 42 percent of likely voters favored Clinton, to Trump’s 39 percent, according to the July 31-Aug. 4 online poll of 1,154 likely voters. The poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning that the results suggest the race is roughly even.
Among registered voters over the same period, Clinton held a lead of five percentage points, down from eight percentage points on Monday, according to the poll. This isn’t to say that Trump is zooming back out to some sort of massive lead, but there’s a key phrase to read in the first sentence of the second paragraph of that excerpted section. To see why it’s important, go back and take a look at that McClatchy-Marist poll that John wrote about yesterday. The numbers were certainly awful for Trump, but you really needed to look at the cross tabs. McClatchy had 1,132 adults which included 983 registered (not likely) voters.
Reuters, on the other hand, surveyed an almost identical number of likely voters, which many of the other pollsters won’t start doing until Labor Day. When they expanded their own survey out to just registered voters (which is still better than all adults, but not as good as likely voters) they too came up with a larger lead for Clinton in the range of five points.
It’s also impossible to write Reuters off as an outlier because they showed Clinton with a large lead right after the Democrats’ convention just like everyone else. (Eight points among likely voters rather than the double digit leads she had in some other surveys.) Look… the entire point here is not to say that Trump didn’t take a beating after the conventions. He’s generated a mountain of bad headlines, some of which is the usual media pile-on that every Republican gets but some which he brought on himself. His numbers are weaker than they were two weeks ago and there’s no denying it. But I’ll want to see a good number of additional surveys of likely voters before I begin carving his epitaph.
The media and RINOs are trying to make Clinton the lead and winner. They cannot move the public in the manner they are attempting. I haven’t had much time to read much this past week—seeing headlines about how dire Trump’s position is and the swing in polls, etc. Yet, look today, they are tied, Clinton has lost her supposed convention bounce. We didn’t like her last week, we still do not. We like Trump, despite any criticism. Media and RINOs are going to continue freaking out and trying to drive the narrative but I suspect this year it will fail. Trump is not Romney, not Kerry, or other wimps we’ve seen over the years. Clinton, though, she’s a corrupt serial liar and no amount of media hype will change that reality.
With the lies and auto pilot voice of Hillary, I doubt she could win in any local election anywhere, but nationwide, there are so many utterly stupid people...
President Dukakis was doing much better at this stage of his campaign.
The numbers do not mean anything. The methods are dishonest, the results have no weight or purpose other than to attempt to control, and by control I mean mass mind control.
The media is still trying to do the same thing it has been trying to do since trump announced, and that is manufacture or otherwise trigger the typical Republican meltdown, self destruct Todd Aiken type moment which he cannot recover from.
And they are going to continue to try to do this with increasing hysteria until it works or he is elected.
Mass mind control works via the human need for socialization and by way of mass communication.
Mass mind control can be defeated simply by not engaging in typical socializing behaviors and unplugging.
If those trying to control you are unable to speak to you or reach you, then they cannot control you, they cannot push you or suggest anything to you.
One only needs to cut off their avenues, and they are utterly without power.
I have only one thing to say to the establishment of this country.
See you in November.
Can’t believe they didn’t bring up the Dem/Rep breakdown.
This website provides analysis of the bias of all the polls. Trust them or not but they do show a wide variation in "trustworthy" value for these polls. You can see which polls are Junk and the ones that are Real Junk.
But a couple of polls including the USC poll look pretty legit to me and show the race very close with Trump just behind or slightly ahead.
Worth a look by Freepers who are rightfully skeptical of the current MSM distorted polling.
The crooked Klintoon sucks! ...
I remember back in 2012 with unskewedpolls.com
How did it end up for them? (I'm betting poorly) but I really don't know.
In any case we have polls from the MSM with a 15 point Hillary leads and 2-3 point Hillary lead. Somebody is screwed up and it is their intentionally biased methodology that is the culprit. Whether or not we can accurately unwind that bias is the question.
I wonder if Pat Caddell, one of the few liberals with standing to do so, laid into them thoroughly, and someone actually got embarrassed at al-Rooters...
I agree with you. I talk to people at work, all Trump supporters, that either listen to talk radio and/or watch foxnews. They all say Trump needs to watch what he says or tweets, or what have you. They think he’s behind. They believe the MSM. And yes I consider fox,beck,levin,rush, et al, to be mainstream. They push the anti Trump theme as much as cnn or msnbc, just in a sometimes veiled manner.
Turn off the tv. Turn off the radio.
Make FreeRepublic and Drudge your main news outlets and all will be fine.
Check out where these guys cam ed in fo t 2012. Right on the money. Haven’t looked at 08 or 04 but their site says they were perfect.
The Clintons have been doing this since 1992(nationally). Clinton had polls in the mid 50’s. It was outrageous and people just learned to ignore. Meanwhile, Perot enters the race and gives a push. Clinton never got 50% of the vote in either election. He just barely survived.
The recent Clinton bump is all BS. I doubt anything could move her 10% in a few days. She is stuck at 43% and loses more votes with the “other” parties involved. Obama is trying to help but is becoming more unhinged every day. He can’t sway anyone. He is not above 50% Approval. That is the rigged poll and current DNC meme. They are scared. Obama could go to prison.
No Republican Presidential candidate EVER leads in the polls before the election! The media WILL NOT PERMIT IT! ;)
Point might be correct but the analogy is total junk. When Duran inexplicably quit, the official scorecards showed a small lead for Leonard (68-66, 68-66, 67-66). Hardly a beating, particularly with Duran’s reputation for dominating the late rounds of fights. The author should do some googling himself rather than relying on his memory.
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