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The Impact of Ending Military Aid to Ukraine: Gradual Decline, Then Collapse
Center for Strategic and International Studies ^ | 19DEC2023 | Mark F. Cancian

Posted on 02/11/2024 3:05:05 AM PST by Tom Tetroxide

As Congress dithers about funding aid to Ukraine, Ukrainian military capabilities decline. This decline is gradual. Previously committed weapons, munitions, and supplies will keep some equipment flowing for months or even years. However, the effects of declining aid will be increasingly apparent on the battlefield. Ukraine is no longer able to conduct a counteroffensive. By February or March, it will have difficulty conducting local counterattacks, and by early summer, it will struggle to fend off Russian attacks. At some point, the front will collapse, and Russia will impose a harsh peace.

Q1: Why is military aid needed?

A1: Militaries in combat need a continuous flow of munitions, weapons, and supplies to replace those destroyed or used up in operations. For example, during its counteroffensive earlier this year, Ukraine was firing munitions at an extremely high rate, about 6,000 artillery rounds per day. Ukraine will not run out of ammunition, as some resupply will continue from U.S. and global sources. However, as the flow of ammunition declines, Ukraine will have to prioritize targets. Instead of firing at suspected enemy locations, it will only be able to fire at identified locations. Eventually, it will only be able to fire at the most dangerous targets, such as those that are shooting at Ukrainian forces.

Similarly, militaries lose equipment at a steady rate. Without replacements, units lose firepower. That means relying more on humans and suffering higher casualties.

(Excerpt) Read more at csis.org ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Crime/Corruption; Front Page News; Government; Politics/Elections; Russia; Ukraine; War
KEYWORDS: aid; collapse; markfcancian; pritzker; russia; ukraine; war
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To: yldstrk
--- "No one in any country gives two figs about 'the Palestinian cause'."

The question --- what is a Palestinian? -- ranks alongside the remarkable question -- what is a woman? -- that so flummoxed the Left in these last few years.

The question, for me, is not about Gaza, the West Bank and Israel, but the LARGER and underlying question of Islam versus the entire Judaeo-Christian world and that clash of civilizations which is rooted -- according to Islam -- in gaining supremacy over all peoples and lands, by force as by stealth.

61 posted on 02/11/2024 7:42:58 AM PST by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: dforest
Take a deep breath. The center of Russia's population is Izhevsk in the east Volga region, far from Alaska and further from Western Europe than all of Ukraine. In any event, given a choice, Ukraine prefers to affiliate with Western Europe, not Russia.

The false claim that BlackRock and Vanguard "have bought Ukraine" actually endorses my point: an independent Ukraine at peace will readily draw investment capital for rebuilding.

62 posted on 02/11/2024 7:44:42 AM PST by Rockingham (`)
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To: Tom Tetroxide
Previously committed weapons, munitions, and supplies will keep some equipment flowing...

For the US, commitment requires approval and funding. Congress has yet to authorize any of it as far as I can tell. It's a matter of responsibility and priorities. Do we continue pushing our proxy war mania in an effort to graduate to actual one-on-one conflict, or do we fight the real battle here at home - illegal third world slags who are destroying our way of life.

63 posted on 02/11/2024 7:48:13 AM PST by Gaffer
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To: hardspunned

Biden is only in the UKR game to DISTRACT. From his disastrous economy, from his abandonment of our southern border, and from his wanton pandering to every little woke victim voter group in existence.

This ends this November - whether Biden wins or not. He won’t need UKR distractions anymore and he’ll pull a “get the hell outta Afghanistan” maneuver on UKR. Bank on it.


64 posted on 02/11/2024 7:51:48 AM PST by Gaffer
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To: dforest; Rockingham
May 5, 2023

President holds meeting with world's largest investment company on creation of fund for rebuilding Ukraine

At the meeting, Ukraine's Ministry of Economy signed an agreement with BlackRock Financial Market Advisory on providing support services to the Ukraine Development Fund.

The main goal of the fund's creation is to attract private and public capital for implementing large-scale business projects in Ukraine.

As Zelenskyy stated at the meeting, since independence, truly large and strategic private capital in volumes that would correspond to the country's scale and capabilities has never come to Ukraine.



65 posted on 02/11/2024 7:59:33 AM PST by linMcHlp
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To: Rockingham

Western Europe can pay for Ukraine and we can get out. It was not Russian Biolabs in Ukraine. They were US Biolabs and Bidens had investments in those.

This is NWO owning of Ukraine. Do not try to pretend otherwise because you would have to lie to do it.


66 posted on 02/11/2024 8:21:16 AM PST by dforest
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To: Tom Tetroxide

Do you know who Clayton Morris is, and why he fled the country? (Real estate fraud and ponzi scheme)


67 posted on 02/11/2024 8:49:42 AM PST by Widget Jr
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To: Codeflier
Kind of like being at Biden's meeting with the Pope...
68 posted on 02/11/2024 9:07:08 AM PST by kiryandil (Free Zaluzhny!)
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To: Widget Jr

So what you’re saying is, Clayton Morris isn’t a Democrat with political pull.


69 posted on 02/11/2024 9:13:16 AM PST by kiryandil (Free Zaluzhny!)
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To: Widget Jr
Sigh... (How many times do I have to explain this)

Clayton Morris, Financial journalism and real estate ventures:

"In March 2019, investors filed more than two dozen lawsuits in Indiana and New Jersey, claiming that Morris was running a Ponzi scheme involving the sales of some houses in C- and D-class neighborhoods that were marketed through his investment company, Morris Invest, in Indianapolis. The investors claimed they were sold rental properties which Morris Invest promised to rehabilitate and rent out, earning them rental income. These properties belonged to Bert Whalen. Some investors claimed that they later discovered the properties they received rental income from for several months were boarded up and vacant, and they began receiving city code and country health department violations. Others found they had purchased vacant lots, small shacks or buildings that were falling down."

...

"In May 2020, the state of Indiana filed a civil lawsuit against Clayton Morris, among others, for violating Indiana's deceptive sales and home loan acts in real estate deals involving more than 150 properties in Marion County."

After the lawsuits were filed, the Morris's moved to Portugal. Then rebranded themselves as pro-Trump to pander to the MAGA crowd. They are neither Democrats nor Republicans. They are parasitic con artists looking for a host.

Freepers used to understand when someone was trying to take advantage of forum, which is why DEBKA isn't welcome here, and the Admins will not allow direct posts from Zerohedge or Natural News. Now we're becoming like Twitter and Facebook where what's trending matters more than understanding what is important.

70 posted on 02/11/2024 9:33:26 AM PST by Widget Jr (🇺🇸 Trump 2024 🇺🇸)
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To: Worldtraveler once upon a time

Thanks for the info about the Pritzker clan.


71 posted on 02/11/2024 9:33:26 AM PST by Tom Tetroxide
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To: Tom Tetroxide
You are most welcome.

That assertion that the CSIS was "bipartisan" was a public stance for the rubes who refuse the wise advice to "trust but verify."

I missed the opportunity to make a pun, so I'll take it now. CSIS' Thomas Pritzker's "sis" is a man.

72 posted on 02/11/2024 9:55:51 AM PST by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: Worldtraveler once upon a time

73 posted on 02/11/2024 9:59:25 AM PST by Tom Tetroxide
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To: wildcard_redneck; All

“Did the Ukrainians think that the US, a country that goes out of its way to punish its own citizens with ethnic replacement and poverty, was going to treat them well?”


Truth !

People observe how the Globohomo Elite treats its own heritage populations, and then are surprised by how Ukraine is betrayed.


74 posted on 02/11/2024 10:44:22 AM PST by Reverend Wright ( Everything touched by progressives, dies !)
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To: Flavious_Maximus

+1 000 000 !


75 posted on 02/11/2024 10:46:24 AM PST by Reverend Wright ( Everything touched by progressives, dies !)
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To: Tom Tetroxide

That ain’t no woman. That’s a Pritzker.


76 posted on 02/11/2024 12:38:48 PM PST by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: Chad C. Mulligan

The ukkkie neighbor

Is a pyromaniac

Needs to be torched

Self punishment isn’t enough

Gay supremacists

Equalite

Liberte

Fraternite

Diversite

Gog dnc nazi usa

Magog dnc nazi nato

Rev 13


77 posted on 02/11/2024 12:49:23 PM PST by Firehath (Quackery - An irrelevant simplification / undetected Complex problem - attacking symptoms)
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To: Tom Tetroxide

Nuland.

Again

All those people dead. All that destruction.

Andthe US right there in the middle of it.


78 posted on 02/11/2024 12:55:12 PM PST by combat_boots
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To: Widget Jr
As to the Morris folks: "They are parasitic con artists looking for a host."

This very likely an apt description. The same description fits so many of the other YouTube channels flogged on these FR pages. Some cheer some and denigrate others, and the converse is equally true.

Specifically as to the Morris', they are in the states, the civil lawsuits not be further pursued. His YouTube and his own site (and related queries re: location) show this to be accurate. Their website is registered in San Francisco, and their "merch" store site is registered through Canada.

They -- just like the other Ukraine-Russia YouTube stuff -- are cashing in on those who would subscribe, donate, support, buy 'merch' and the like. Pro and con, the game's is the same. Their other interment website shows "Florham Park, New Jersey."

The most recent estimate: "$59 -$943.6K -- ESTIMATED YEARLY EARNINGS" Source: https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/redactednews. Why, he and his wife are actually doing slightly better than another thread's favorite, Denys Davydov. Seemingly different and often opposing views, and yet still the same game. Money. And Google/YouTube getting their 45% of all revenues from all sides all the time.

Commenting on other threads with such data is sometimes welcomed but most often barked back at, because bias seems quite a determinant. Much more than actual hard data, against which few actually confront.

Rather than promote any of them and somehow divide ourselves, let's ALL promote President Trump for 2024.

79 posted on 02/11/2024 1:12:46 PM PST by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: FarCenter

“Given developments since 2014, there is now no scenario in which Ukraine actually wins. It will be an economic basket case for generations.”

There is. The USA gets in and does it for them.


80 posted on 02/11/2024 3:06:42 PM PST by rxh4n1
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