The Impact of Ending Military Aid to Ukraine: Gradual Decline, Then Collapse

Center for Strategic and International Studies ^ | 19DEC2023 | Mark F. Cancian

[Tom Tetroxide]

As Congress dithers about funding aid to Ukraine, Ukrainian military capabilities decline. This decline is gradual. Previously committed weapons, munitions, and supplies will keep some equipment flowing for months or even years. However, the effects of declining aid will be increasingly apparent on the battlefield. Ukraine is no longer able to conduct a counteroffensive. By February or March, it will have difficulty conducting local counterattacks, and by early summer, it will struggle to fend off Russian attacks. At some point, the front will collapse, and Russia will impose a harsh peace.

Q1: Why is military aid needed?

A1: Militaries in combat need a continuous flow of munitions, weapons, and supplies to replace those destroyed or used up in operations. For example, during its counteroffensive earlier this year, Ukraine was firing munitions at an extremely high rate, about 6,000 artillery rounds per day. Ukraine will not run out of ammunition, as some resupply will continue from U.S. and global sources. However, as the flow of ammunition declines, Ukraine will have to prioritize targets. Instead of firing at suspected enemy locations, it will only be able to fire at identified locations. Eventually, it will only be able to fire at the most dangerous targets, such as those that are shooting at Ukrainian forces.

Similarly, militaries lose equipment at a steady rate. Without replacements, units lose firepower. That means relying more on humans and suffering higher casualties.

[bert]

What is speculated by the media is not really significant at present. When Hamas is declared dead and is actually gone from Gaza, the real forces to decide the future will surface.

The primary decision as to what will become of Palestine has already been decided and is bound up in a bag of secrets. The details are yet to be worked out. A Palestinian Protectorate is going to emerge.

The members of the Abraham Accord/Negev Summit made the secret agreement. The details will be decided on the basis of current events. All have a need for a positive outcome.

Israel will maintain some presence in Gaza to maintain security. That may also be true of the West Bank. However, local police and security forces will be developed in the West Bank and used under tight IDF monitoring in Gaza. There will be a role of Egypt in the security aspects.

Egypt and Jordan will be tasked with taking the remnants of the Palestinian Authority and developing a new governing mechanism. The UAE leaked the ID of a possible new leader a few weeks ago. T

Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be tasked with reconstruction. They will not only provide an Arab face to the effort but money as well. They will also be charged with going to the guild ridden world and begging for as much money and pledges as they can get. Every $$$ they can get from France or Italy is one they don’t have to cough up them selves. Being Arabs and shrewd deal makers, they will keep a very close eye on the money and how it is spent.

Then there is the USA. America will be cheerleader and will nothave a major role beyond claiming serious involvement and getting good press.

The process of transforming Protectorate Palestine from rubble into a society weaned from total dependence on others is going to take at least ten years

[Maskot]

Apples and oranges are two completely different things. Learn them, snowflake, or your life is gonna be very very difficult. Viewing every situation as on equal footing is no way to go through life, son.

[Bull Man]

Na Na Na Na
Na Na Na Na
Hey Ukraine -Ey
Goodbye.

[sauropod]

.

[yldstrk]

That sounds so sensible. I only hope it is right.

[maddog55]

Ukraine is a European problem.

[EEGator]

Your two digit IQ glows everyday.

[Flavious_Maximus]

“...If your neighbor’s house was on fire you’d refuse to let ‘em use your hose...”

The problem is that your own house is on fire as well, and have only one hose. What do you do? Put out the fire of your neighbors house while your own house collapses? This is the USA today, thanks to the filthy Quisling Puppet Biden regime. /spit

[delta7]

Negotiate peace before it becomes surrender.
——-
That time has passed. As some of us knew ( Tucker’s interview confirmed it), a negotiated Peace deal was at hand, signed- until the corrupted West sent Boris Johnson to destroy it….no negotiations, senile Joe and the West can NOT be trusted. Full unconditional surrender is a price to pay for the West’s deception.

Vlad gets up to the Dniepner, throw in Odessa and that will ensure Peace for some time. That should pour some water on the West’s encroachment and war mongering.

[Codeflier]

Very poor analogy. Makes me feel Fremdschämen reading your post.

[rottweiller_inc]

and the rest... so the elites in the EU can buy off their voters with very generous welfare payments because they don’t have to put out money for defense beyond a token amount

[shanover]

Ukraine really doesn’t have any more military age males to substantially fight and continue the war. That’s the reality. Russia easily plays the long war.

[AAABEST]

When are you gonna STFU and get off FR?

Mystery-meat Uke-harpy scab.

[Fury]

Ukraine will need more military personnel to continue this fight.

Can they draft or otherwise conscript 100,000, 200,000, 500,000 Ukrainians?

[Thapsus_epiphany]

This Ukraine funding is a massive waste of American taxpayer money
We’re borrowing the money from China to give it to Ukraine, with zero oversight.
This is insanity, especially when you realize that we have all known the outcome of this conflict from the very first day.
Russia is going to get its territory back, irrespective of whoever is running that country, whether it’s Putin or somebody else.
Putin was ALWAYS going to win this conflict, and American funding is merely delaying the inevitable, at an outrageous cost to future generations of Americans.
What a waste of money, resources and political capital for those politicians supporting the funding. They’ve lost all credibility, and I don’t believe anything they say, an unprecedented betrayal of trust.

[Basket_of_Deplorables]

They say it like it’s a bad thing.

CSIS *spit*

[Rockingham]

Not so. Ukraine has substantial industrial and technical talent, and being closer to Western Europe and the US geographically and culturally, Ukraine has better quality of life and prospects for the future than Russia. That was one of the reasons for Putin's invasion. Russians were grumbling that Ukrainians were doing better than they were.

If the current war ends on terms that Ukraine can live with, as with the former Warsaw Pact countries after the Cold War, the EU will pour in money for recovery and provide access to their markets. That will lead to return of the Ukrainian wartime diaspora and rapid growth due to what economists call a "rebuilding boom," the same kind of thing that led to the recovery of Japan, Germany, and South Korea.

[CapnJack]

“Between the UK, France, Germany, Poland, Finland, and Sweden they can handle the cost of European defense.”

Exactly. We're broke, we've been broke for a long time.
If they need more money, claw back the money the Ukraine oligarchs spent on yachts and villas.

[dforest]

What a pantload. Russia is actually geographically closer to the US.

The US is already assigning a bunch of progressives to take over the rebuilding because Western interests such as Blackrock and Vanguard have bought Ukraine from Zelensky.

Talk about imperialism. Talk about NATO expansionism.

[Worldtraveler once upon a time]

The Center for Strategic and International Studies is a LOBBYIST organization in the heart of DC.

One reads: "The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization dedicated to advancing practical ideas to address the world’s greatest challenges. Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 2015, succeeding former U.S. senator Sam Nunn (D-GA). Founded in 1962, CSIS is led by John J. Hamre, who has served as president and chief executive officer since 2000."

About CSIS

Center for Strategic and International Studies
1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036

Thomas Pritzker is a Jewish American billionaire heir and businessman. A member of the Pritzker family, he is the chairman and chief executive officer of the Pritzker Organization, which manages the various Pritzker family business assets. Pritzker is also the executive chairman of the Hyatt Hotels Corporation.

Thomas Pritzker

Another of the Pritzkers is governor of Illinois, another worked for Obama, and another -- who is today a transsexual -- runs a transsexual museum in Illinois.

Doesn't seem quite as partisan as it claims, huh?

Of the Pritzkers, one finds:

"Depending on who you ask, members of the billionaire Pritzker family of Chicago are either the proud descendants of a financial genius who are doing good by funding progressive causes — or a secretive dynasty who now back radical no-bail laws and the transgender movement. The most prominent member of the family today is Gov. J.B. Pritzker, 57, a longtime Democratic activist and supporter whose net worth is about $3.6 billion. His sister, Penny, 63, was co-chair of former President Barack Obama’s presidential campaign and later became his secretary for the Department of Commerce. This, despite her once serving on the board of Superior Bank, which the Pritzkers bought with $460 million in tax credits from the federal government. The bank later collapsed after being one of the first to traffic in subprime mortgages."

How billionaire Pritzkers became key backers of bail reform, ‘gender affirming’ care

And one finds the perverse though wealthy....

Pritzker Military Museum & Library closing Chicago location, retreats to Wisconsin