Posted on 03/16/2018 6:35:22 AM PDT by Kaslin
What if they held a special election and nobody won? That's more or less what happened in southwestern Pennsylvania, in the special election to fill the vacancy in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District.
Democrat Conor Lamb narrowly defeated Republican Rick Saccone -- by 627 votes out of 228,378 counted -- in a district held by Republican Tim Murphy since 2003. More to the point, the district was carried by a 20-point margin by Republican Donald Trump in 2016 and by a 58-41 percent margin by Republican Mitt Romney in 2012.
Lamb's margin seems likely to hold up under a possible recount, but even if it doesn't, this result is a sign that the 241-194 majority House Republicans won in 2016 is likely to be overturned this fall.
The pattern of Lamb's narrow victory was similar to results in other special congressional and state legislative elections over the past year. Democratic turnout was robust, particularly in relatively upscale Pittsburgh suburbs. Republican turnout lagged, and some non-college-educated whites who voted for Trump and Romney voted Democratic this time.
Evidently, downscale whites, whose trend toward Republicans started in the 1990s and was augmented with the Trump candidacy, are less firmly attached to one party than Trump haters are to the other. This is in line with the skeptical response to any new policy change by either party, as evidenced by the negative responses to Obamacare when Barack Obama was in office and the negative response to Republicans' "repeal and replace" once Trump became president.
Some observers argued that Saccone, like other Republican nominees in special elections, was a weak candidate. A better observation is that Lamb was a strong one. Nominated by party leaders, not in a primary, he has a family political pedigree (his uncle is Pittsburgh's city controller) in a long-settled metro area where such ties are important.
And he took moderate positions on multiple issues. A former Marine, he ran an ad showing him shooting an AR-15 and recently said that new gun laws aren't the answer to preventing more mass shootings at schools. Early on, he pledged not to vote for Nancy Pelosi for speaker (an issue that won't come up until at least January 2019). While many Democrats are baying for the impeachment of Trump, Lamb said, "We need the office of the presidency to succeed if we're going to make any progress on these issues."
Special elections are often good indicators for general elections, but they are also inherently low-stakes contests. You can vote for the opposition party without giving it immediate control. But in November, control of the House will be at stake.
Lamb's approach was similar to that of many candidates recruited by Rahm Emanuel in 2006, the most recent time Democrats overturned a Republican House majority. Their local roots and moderate positions were adapted to local terrain. That's something the minority party can do, while the majority party is usually stuck with the president's profile.
But it's not clear that Democrats have been as canny this year as Emanuel was a dozen years ago. They have some 1,200 candidates running for the 435 House seats, a great many of them full-throated Trump haters. And Democratic primary voters may resist party leaders' efforts to bolster moderate candidates. When the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee urged voters in Texas' 7th Congressional District -- a target seat with many upscale voters -- not to vote for leftist Laura Moser, they responded by voting for her. Moser ran better on election day than in early voting and has a good chance to be nominated in the May 22 runoff.
The danger for Democrats is that they'll be seen as campaigning for impeachment, contrary to Pelosi's warnings, and as echoing the sentiments expressed by Hillary Clinton this week on her book promotion tour in India.
She characterized the areas voting for her as "optimistic, diverse, dynamic, moving forward," in contrast with the ones that had voted for Obama but spurned her. The latter are "looking backwards," she said. "You didn't like black people getting rights. You don't like women, you know, getting jobs. You don't want (to) see that Indian-Americans (are) succeeding more than you are." White female Trump voters, she went on, act under "ongoing pressure to vote the way that (their) husband, (their) boss, (their) son, whoever, believes (they) should."
Such virtue signaling appeals to those who still haven't accepted the outcome of the 2016 election. But it risks repelling voters in districts like Pennsylvania's 18th, who will determine which party controls the House in November's midterm elections.
Nope. Because as stupid as the GOP-E, the Dems are beholden to their wackadoodle identity politics base. Once Lamb has to start voting the way Pelosi wants him to, he’s done.
The people who voted for Trump didn’t vote for Lamb.... They simply didn’t come out to vote, because the GOP never EVER tried to talk to them!! Not once in PA-18.
The messaging in PA-18 was completely off the mark from day one and never once addressed, or even tried to address the Trump/MAGA non traditional R voter... never once reached out to them and tried to talk to them or motivate them or explain to them why if they believed in MAGA they need to show up to protect it.
PA-18 showed the abject incompetence throughout the entire GOP Ecosphere! They literally ran a campaign they could have run for any generic republican for the last 15+ years.. and just like those Trump voters never showed up to vote R in those elections they didn’t show up to vote in this one.
Republicans leadership is GROSSLY INCOMPETENT!
With Lyin Paul Ryan helping out these Dims, it sure makes it easier.
If the GOP message the fall race properly Lamb will be gone.. because this race was absolutely incompetently messaged... If they don’t, Lamb will be gone in 2020 when Trump will make sure those voters the GOP ignored in PA-18 are indeed motivated and show up.
Lamb’s election is the result of the GOP ecosphere refusing to understand or respect 2016. Trump showed them how to win, and win big, and they just went on and ran a campaign like Trump never happened...
Trump himself flew into PA 18 to help Saccone. GOP spent MILLIONS to help Saccone.
Please lay out your plan, from day one, of What should’ve been done, to get the GOP candidate elected.
Side question: Why is a Romney heading up RNC??
I pray to God our side is not repeating the same mistake.
Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy’s senate seat in 2009. Don’t read too much into an off term election. Just sain.
Saccone was just a bad candidate. I don’t see the Dems taking 25 seats away.
Sigh,
Lamb didn’t win because of voter fraud.... Folks need to stop this red herring nonsense.
This race should have NEVER been closer than 8 points, even with a mediocre candidate.
This race was lost because the GOP message was completely wrongheaded and poorly targeted. It never ever addressed the non traditional Trump R voter, or even the non hard core R voter.. it was nothing but red meat from top to bottom and it falied horribly.
The D’s were motivated and showed up... the GOP never motivated anyone but the hard core to show up, because it never offered a message to anyone but the hard core... and guess what? When all you target is the hard core, you tend to lose when your opponents base is motivated, and D’s are motivated they are going to crawl over broken glass to vote... Just like R’s did in 2010.
The entire GOP ecosphere blew this race, completely handled it wrong and never delivered a message that was going to drive turnout outside the hard right.
Sorry, but you could not be wrong... The messaging used in this race was absolutely incorrect, wrongly targeted and if it was the prototype of the message they plan for the fall, R’s will handily lose the house.
This race should have never been closer than 8 points even with a mediocre candidate...
The messaging from this race was the same as any generic R for the last 15 years, it never gave the non traditional R voter a reason to care or show up... never once addressed them, never once offered any motivation for anyone outside the very hard right to show up...
It was red meat, and nothing more and if they plan on running that message in the fall, the GOP will lose the house... no doubt about it.
When will the Republicans start putting up the younger, but QUALIFIED, candidate, instead of the older ‘it’s my turn’ guy?
Since the seat is temporary and is only good thru the end of the year and the real election is in November, I probably wouldn’t have wasted my time voting.........I suspect others thought the same.
Look Roy Moore should have won the AL senate seat except for his own party sabotaging him. Even with the scandal he would have squeaked it out.
Paul Ryan’s PAC gave assistance to the Democrat. Then since its PA there were jimmied up voting machines in 3 polling places. A stronger more aggressive candidate would have squeaked it out.
For the most part the Dems are in disarray. They have no message and no leadership. Trumps policies are heating up the economy. Most Americans are happy about it. We may lose a few house seats but not the majority and we will likely pick up 2-3 senate seats.
Trump flies in at the last minute and holds a rally, so what.. that doesn’t change the message of the race.
Yes the GOP spent MILLIONS and they spent MILLIONS basically throwing out messaging that could have been for any generic R candidate for the last 15+ years... it was HORRIBLE AND INCORRECT MESSAGING from the entire GOP ecosphere!
I live in this district, I watched this campaign first hand... The entire GOP message was WRONG, POOR and MISDIRECTED!
What gave Trump the Rust Belt? Was it the same old R voters who always vote? Nope... It was he was able to get I’s and D’s to show up and vote for hime.. that is why he won the Rust Belt!
He ran a campaign that gave those people a reason to vote for him, it addressed their concerns and said I HEAR YOU, AND I AM GOING TO BE THERE FOR YOU.
This race, was nothing but RED MEAT, that’s it... LAMB IS A PELOSI D... LAMB IS EVIL, LAMB IS BAD... that was it.... I’m not talking about just the direct Saccone based ads either, I am talking the RNCC, and National PAC ads, they were NEVER anything but red meat for the base... And that was just flat out stupid.
About the only ads that were half way decent, were actually from the Saccone campaign that were direct issue ads, one had a widow addressing the tax cuts... That was a good ad, the rest were never ever going to motivate anyone outside the hard right base to show up... and true to form, they didn’t.
The messaging in this race was terrible, and wrong from day one. To give you an idea of just how bad the messaging of this race was, in the closing weeks of the race you had Saccone running around saying “I was Trump before Trump.” Jesus H Chrizt, you think the non traditional R voter, the I and D who came out for the MAGA agenda and voted R for the first or second time in their lives was going to be motivated to show up because of that???????? WTH?!?!?
The message of this race should have ALWAYS been targeted to those voters, the I’s and D’s who came out and voted for Trump and MAGA... some red meat for the base is fine, but it can’t be the entire message... and that is all this races messaging was.... It never ever targeted those folks or even tried to!!!! It was an EPIC FAILURE OF INCOMPETENCE!
The D base is energized and motivated, they are going to crawl over glass to vote... that’s not up for debate.... and if you aren’t going to give those people who voted for Trump/MAGA a reason they should care or show up they aren’t going to show up to vote.... And the entire GOP never once gave them one.
You want the message that should have been given (at least up here in the rust belt) here it is.
In 2016 YOU turned the world on its ear, you told the political establishment you had had enough of their selfish and short sighted actions.. you reminded them this is your country, not theirs. You voted to stop putting their desires first, and to put America’s first.
The democrats didn’t hear you, they have vowed to stop the American First agenda you voted for at all cost. They have called your tax cuts crumbs, have spent the last year trying to undo your election, alleging foreign collusion and attacking your Agenda on every front
My name is [xx] I a hear you, and I agree with you. I am running congress because I know America must come first, you the american people deserve nothing less. I will proudly stand for this and for you.
I will proudly fight all those who believe otherwise.
I hope I can count on your vote this fall. I am [xxx] and I whole heartily approve this message.
You can word smith that message, but THAT, THAT’s the message needed, at least in the rust belt if you expect to not lose... Period.
See 56, I am tired of repeating myself to people who don’t want to listen to reality.
The GOP blew this race, and it wasn’t the candidate. The Dems could have put up a child molester caught on tape and they would have still gotten the same vote totals. The D’s are motivated and angry and going to crawl over broken glass to vote.... This race NEVER offered any reason for anyone outside the hard right base to show up... the messaging was terrible, ineffective and wrongly targeted. PERIOD.
It was GROSS INCOMPETENCE from the entire GOP ecosphere. You could have had the greatest candidate in the world on the GOP side and the race would not have shifted much because the messaging was all wrong and incorrectly targeted.
PA-18 shows just how completely inept the GOP leadership is when it comes to understanding and messaging a campaign, at least in areas where they have to reach out beyond the hard core base.
Not according to The Conservative Treehouse
15 March: UniParty At Work – Paul Ryan SuperPac Campaigned to Elect Democrat Conor Lamb
It should also not be forgotten that Conor Lamb’s family are old-school Pittsburgh Democrats who are respected and well-liked, even by those who don’t vote for them. The name recognition helped.
“Do you realize if they do, they will impeach President Trump?”
Yes, I do. In spite of a booming economy and record unemployment, Dems will impeach Trump because they have hurt feelings, not because he has done anything wrong. In spite of a booming economy and record unemployment, people will vote for democrats because the media has hurt feelings and won’t tell the truth. In spite of a booming economy and record unemployment, the GOPe will throw the election because Trump’s agenda doesn’t line up with the globalist power grab. Besides, it wasn’t his turn and that hurt their feelings. When Trump tweets a call to arms, I will show up. It is time to drain the swamp.
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