Posted on 01/15/2018 4:45:30 PM PST by Kaslin
The question of who will be the next senator from Arizona, replacing Jeff Flake, is looking less clear than ever this week. For quite a while now it had been looking like Dr. Kelli Ward might have a fairly clear shot at it. She’s the same Tea Party candidate who had been trying to replace John McCain and has quite a following in conservative circles. But now two new flies have dropped into the ointment. In only a week, Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Congresswoman Martha McSally have entered the fray. And the initial polling of this new alignment shows that the primary might be very tight, with Arpaio possibly tanking Ward’s chances. (AOL)
Ward’s pathway to victory was predicated on her ability to consolidate conservatives. Having to now compete for those voters with Arpaio, it’s McSally who looks to benefit from the breach on the right. An OH Predictive Insights poll conducted this week of 504 registered voters found McSally with 31 percent support to Arpaio’s 29 percent. Ward, despite having the longest tenure in the race, was in third with 25 percent. A November poll by the same firm pegged Ward at 42 percent support to McSally’s 34 percent in a two-person contest.
“Sheriff Joe’s entrance into the race probably assures Martha McSally the nomination,” says Bruce Ash, a Republican National Committeeman from Arizona. “It probably splits the vote on Kelli Ward. The primary is probably a little more certain for Martha with Sheriff Joe’s entry.”
Arizona runs their elections fairly late in the cycle, so a two point lead at this stage is basically meaningless. The filing deadline doesn’t even hit until May 30th, so even more people could toss their hats in. And the actual primary election won’t take place until August 28th. That’s an eternity in politics, so the candidates will have plenty of time to make their marks.
I do have to wonder what’s going on in Arizona, though. This is being portrayed as either a litmus test of “Trumpism” or a fight between the establishment and the most conservative ranks, depending who you listen to. Both Ward and Sheriff Joe are vocal Trump supporters, as well as hardliners on immigration, while McSally is being portrayed as being in line with the McConnell “establishment” wing of the party. (Oddly enough, despite the charges against her, McSally votes in line with the Trump agenda 96.7% of the time, well above both Flake and McCain.)
This split on the right doesn’t bode well for anyone and Arpaio entering the race really isn’t any reason to be cheering. Yes, I know that many of you who hold the same positions I do on questions of immigration and law enforcement love Sheriff Joe. But if we’re going to be consistent here, he’s a problematic candidate at best. I was just writing yesterday about how it’s preposterous to consider Chelsea Manning as a Senate candidate because of his convictions for very serious crimes, despite having his sentence commuted by Barack Obama. With that in mind, we should remember that Arpaio is only available to run for this office by virtue of having been pardoned by the President. Is that where we’re setting the bar?
And if you’re not such a big fan of Kelli Ward, should you really be writing off Martha McSally that quickly? We can throw the “establishment” flag all we like, but she’s an experienced legislator who, as I just noted, has an established conservative voting record. She’s a veteran with a more than twenty year record of service as an Air Force pilot. On top of that, she’s got one heck of a set of pipes if the Senate every needs someone to sing at formal events. Have you checked out her rendition of the National Anthem at a recent University of Arizona basketball game?
Rep. McSally Sings National Anthem at UofA Basketball Game
If that’s not impressive enough, she belted out “God Bless America” (an arguably even tougher song to master) at the Arts Express, A Hero’s Salute Concert 2015.
Congresswoman Martha McSally sings "God Bless America"
McSally is a fake conservative using tough talk to delude voters.
Arpaio should stay out of it so Ward can get it.
Republicans now almost HAVE to run as many women candidates as possible, because you know Gloria Allred and her Smear Team will just falsely accuse any male Republican candidates of sexual assault many years ago (and Big Media will run with it 24-7) ...
I like Sheriff Joe, but he’s what...85? I think he has a voice and won’t be silenced like before, but he should not be in the senate race. No offence to octogenarian FReepers.
Joe should have waited for McShamey to die
This is pure stupidity. It is what gave Georgians in the sixth Karen Handle
Winning the seat is a must. Vote for the most conservative—that will defeat the Rat.
Didn’t the sheriff lose his last race for sheriff?
That sounds like the strategy that just turned Alabama blue.
If McSally is the most conservative candidate WHO CAN WIN, then she should be the next Senator from AZ.
Show me where picking the most conservative simply on the basis of ideology has produced a successful outcome.
He might be toxic just like Moore! There could be tons of RINO's that just do not like the way Sheriff Joe does business!!
Let's pick someone safe!
Someone who votes with Trump over 90% is fake?
Ward is inexperienced. What the Moore loss taught us, is that we need seasoned Republicans who aren't RINOs, but aren't going to be smeared as right-wing kooks either.
All Arpaio is going to do is split the conservative vote and you can bet that the leftists will vote for him in the primary because he'll be doomed in the general. Just don't understand why he's running for Senate. It defies all common-sense and logic.
...Arpaio should stay out of it so Ward can get it...
Joe should retire to place to watch beautiful Arizona sunsets. He’s done his job faithfully.
joe is way too old. Great patriot but too old. Let’s move to Ward and beat the RINOS!!
Splitting the vote, that’s what Joe Arpaio’s presence in the race guarantees.
I knew that the moment I heard Arpaio was entering the race.
The GOPe candidate must win and people will be manipulated to that end.
They stopped Roy Moore in the end and now a strategy to stop Kelli Ward.
So it’s not “interesting” unless a RINO runs. Got it.
Someone who was and is GOPe playing along with Trump and holding onto Trump because that’s how you win the election.
You fake people out.
Nauseating puff piece McSally is Flake’s choice to replace him.
I like Joe Arpaio, but he is 85 years old. That’s a deal breaker. I won’t weigh in other than that.
McFlake is gone Thank God!
McSally = McCain.
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