Posted on 01/09/2017 2:28:37 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Big news from yesterday, both policy-wise and politically. Remember, Senate Dems are going to try to sink Tom Price during his confirmation hearing this month because he wants to replace Medicare with a voucher system. Medicare will be a linchpin of their 2018 midterm strategy, especially in red states where they’re in trouble: Between Price, Mick Mulvaney at OMB, and of course Paul Ryan, Trump has aligned himself with some of the most aggressive entitlement reformers in Washington. The more power you hand to Republicans, Dems will say to Trump’s blue-collar base, the more you’re gambling with your health care once you turn 65. That’ll leave Trump stuck between the fiscal conservatives in his own party who see Medicare as unsustainable unless it’s reformed and the working-class populists who elected him and who want the government to, er, keep its hands off their Medicare.
John Dickerson put Reince Priebus on the spot about it yesterday, as you’ll see in the second half of the clip below. How’s Trump going to fix Medicare, he asks? Reince’s answer: He won’t “meddle.” We’ll solve it by growing our way out of the problem. There’ll be so much economic growth, supposedly, that the boom in revenue will balance the books. Which, in reality, almost certainly isn’t true. A Heritage study published last year put the problem in stark terms:
Medicare spending has routinely been underestimated (though making such projections is admittedly difficult because of the vagaries of patient behavior, changes in medical technology, or shifting medical practice patterns) and historically has outpaced inflation, the growth of the federal budget, and the growth of the economy. In the near term, the Medicare trustees report, Medicare’s total spending will increase from $683.2 billion in 2016 to $716.8 billion by 2017 and will surpass $1.2 trillion by 2025. Over the period from 2017 to 2025, outlays will generally outpace the growth in the general economy (as measured by GDP), aggregate national health expenditures, and private health insurance.
More retirees and longer lifespans are an ominous problem for a program whose costs are already notorious for outstripping projections. In terms of the overall national debt, the Committee for a Responsible Budget (co-chaired by Republican budget hawk Mitch Daniels) noted in 2015 that “To put the debt on a downward path to reach its historical average by 2040, productivity would need to be three times as high as projected. In other words, for growth alone to solve the debt, the country would need sustained annual productivity growth between 2.5 and 4 percent. By comparison, the historical record for any 25-year period since 1950 is 1.9 percent.” None of that means that the entitlement crisis will grow so dire so soon that Trump will need to address it rather than one of his successors, but it almost certainly means that growth won’t be enough. He can kick this can, but eventually it’ll be too big for the government to kick. Reince is telling you here that he’s prepared to kick it, which is good news for Republicans in the midterms but not so good for the country long-term. I hope Ryan, Price, and Mulvaney are okay with it. But then, I guess they have to be.
You should watch the first half of the clip too as it provides a clue about Trump’s intentions towards ObamaCare. Rand Paul created a stir over the weekend when he claimed that Trump told him he supports replacing ObamaCare as soon as possible. Most Republicans in Congress support “repeal and delay,” though, in which the party would give itself two to three years to build a replacement system while keeping O-Care’s exchanges going in the meantime. Which is it, Dickerson asked Priebus? Does Trump back “repeal and delay” or does he want them to rush out a replacement plan? Priebus is cagey in his reply, noting that Trump prefers to see the program replaced ASAP, but he implies that the White House is okay with a delay of some kind. “I think we all understand that things sometimes do take some time,” he says, “and the full repeal and replace may take a little bit more time.” Sorry, Rand.
See Ya, Rince...
I hope that he does. I’m a recipient now, but I want these things cleaned up so that future generations get a better shake than my generation got.
We paid in. Congress spent our contributions and didn’t invest a dime of it for us, the recipients.
As for 401k, TSAs, et all, I think they were poorly designed to allow the administrators to swindle individuals.
In some ways it turned out to be a racket!
That outcome was set in stone at the start of the second Bush term when he tried to reform Social Security and got his head handed to him.
We’ll be taxing everything out the wazoo someday, but nobody is going to try and cut them again.
Here’s the 100 Day agenda:
http://www.npr.org/2016/11/09/501451368/here-is-what-donald-trump-wants-to-do-in-his-first-100-days
Let’s work on this. If Trump has time left to work miracles with Medicare or SS, great but he’s said what he’s going to do and those things aren’t on the list. Maybe after 100 days worth of winning they will be.
I would be interested in your bad 401k experiences. I have to say my 401k experiences were great as I had many choices and a super bond fund that I can’t easily replicate outside their system.
He’s just saying what Trump said a zillion times during the campaign. I used to dislike Rince, but he really surprised me with what a great job he did helping elect Trump, and since. You can bet he wouldn’t have said that if it wasn’t what Trump wants.
Chief of Staff needs to shut his mouth.
Oh they can turn out fairly well if you don’t have to dip into them. Unfortunately as important as it is not to, life doesn’t always play along.
Through divorce I came upon tough times when I did have to dip into them.
It was my money sitting there. I had to pay a 10% penalty for withdrawal and something like 10% more for the IRS who views dimly the withdrawal of funds.
Of course they describe this as borrowing your own money from yourself. Some companies handle this type of matter in a decent manner.
Here are two examples of what took place with me.
I asked to borrow my own money. One company set it up that way. Years later they simply closed the account when I didn’t pay the funds back to myself. This was something that allowed and was perfectly above board.
The second company paid me funds as a loan from it. That was not what I had asked for. I hadn’t realized what they were doing. Years down the road (over a decade), I found out that they had been charging me interest on the loan at 7%, and my balance which was what I had intended to cash out, had been put into limbo, frozen earning no interest at all.
Needless to say, the amounts were clearly nowhere close by the time I found out about it. Over $10 thousands dollars was involved by the time I caught on what they were doing.
Not only was my savings gone, but I had a big balloon payment due as well.
I’ve heard others mention how things worked out negatively for them too. I don’t recall hearing what their stories were now.
I’m pretty sure we put him in office to do just that! Abolish them both and don’t look back.
Destroying Isis, building the wall and abolishing Obamacare ar the priorities.
Patience people. Trump has shown himself to be a master of political strategy. Rome wasn’t built in a day, nor will America be made great again instantly
I would bet that any and everything he says is cleared with the boss.
Trump’s style is to float many trial balloons.
Clean house there, too.
Find out who’s SS number/s our Terrorist in Chief is using.
FICA pays SS and workers pay FICA.
I don't know about Medicare but I THINK it comes from the same FICA.
Well, Reince, if they’re not “meddled” with they are going to bankrupt us. Do you have any concerns beyond what’s immediately expedient?
I agree with that. I still think there is a better way, and I’d like to see workers in the system now have a way to save where they wouldn’t get their own money stripped from them because financial hardship came along.
You are quite right about how bringing our workforce back on line will increase revenues to the point our current system will return to solvency.
What he is good at is appearing to want "reforms" but only to appear in such a way that items may seem to have been "reformed" from a distance, up close, not so much!
After reading of some of his other budget proposals prior to his running as VP under Romney, which included "tough reforms" on budget items, pretty much the DC's usual "smoke and mirrors," give these programs money to run today with the promise of cutting back on their demands later, when the time and conditions are "right."
This is the RINO tactic of go along to get along promises of toughness prior to elections, then making deals with the DemocRATS after getting reelected!
Why? He is telling the truth. Trump said he wouldn’t touch SS or Medicare. They need to focus on Obamacare and replacement before going after programs that work.
I am SO anxious to see what President does.
The second quarter should be show stopper.
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