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A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Emerging Democrat Majority
American Thinker ^ | November 30, 2016 | Richard Winchester

Posted on 11/30/2016 12:04:53 PM PST by Kaslin

John Judis and Ruy Teixeira published a bestselling book, The Emerging Democratic Majority, in 2002. Judis hailed the continuing validity of their thesis in an Atlantic article published in November 2012. Other authors, such as Democrat pollster Stanley Greenberg and National Review’s chief political correspondent Tim Alberta, have taken up the drumbeat.

The gist of this argument is that a combination of demographic changes to American society and key socioeconomic developments are making it likely that the future will belong to the Democratic Party. Among the demographic changes is the assertion that groups especially likely to vote Democrat – African Americans, Hispanics, and other minorities – will be a larger slice of the American electorate in the future, while groups more inclined to back the GOP – especially older, heterosexual white people – will be a smaller portion of the voting-age population.

Other changes in America include the decline of marriage and especially the entry of more women into the workforce; each of these allegedly works to the advantage of the Democrats. Add to this the entry into the electorate of the Millennial birth cohort – or people born in 1982 or later. These people are reported to be much more likely to identify with or lean toward the Democrats than the Republicans. Contrast them to America’s so-called “Silent Generation,” who are now in their early-to-late 70s, and considerably more inclined to identify with or lean to the GOP.

Voila, so the argument goes, the future looks rosier for the Democrats than for the Republicans.

Before proceeding, let’s acknowledge that the future may belong to the Democratic Party, for the reasons usually given.

(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 114th; obamalegacy; trends; trumptransition
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To: YogicCowboy

The “make lemonade” philosophy is forced to an end when the lemon groves have overrun the sugar groves.


21 posted on 11/30/2016 12:25:27 PM PST by HiTech RedNeck (Embrace the Lion of Judah and He will roar for you and teach you to roar too. See my page.)
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To: central_va

the redneck/rust belt


22 posted on 11/30/2016 12:26:25 PM PST by HiTech RedNeck (Embrace the Lion of Judah and He will roar for you and teach you to roar too. See my page.)
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To: FreeReign

Amazing how some want to throw the towel in, aren’t they?


23 posted on 11/30/2016 12:27:53 PM PST by Kaslin (Most humans have an attention span of about 10 minutes, after that they will revert to daydreaming)
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To: Kaslin
a new study finds Millennials are more likely to identify as conservatives than were either the Boomers or Gen Xers at the same age.

I certainly hope this turns out to be true. Many Millenials have been subjected to intense brainwashing in the public schools.

Even for those who were homeschooled, the Leftist propaganda embedded in our popular culture is now so pervasive, it's almost impossible to escape. Unless the Millenial is Amish or lives in the wilderness, out of reach of the internet.

Looking back on my own young-and-foolish years, I remember it took me until the age of 30 to pull the lever for a conservative. Many millenials are in their early 30s now; there will be a battle for their votes in 2020.

24 posted on 11/30/2016 12:29:34 PM PST by shhrubbery! (NIH!)
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To: central_va

We picked-up WV, WI, MI and PA because Trump broke with Conservative orthodoxy on trade and certain other economic issues. This attracted enough blue collar Democrats back to our side to make the difference.

Like I tell my NeverTrump relatives....there just aren’t enough voters in this country who subscribe to the National Review version of Conservatism to win elections anymore.

The scary thing is that I think Hillary could have won this by ramping up the Student Loan Forgiveness talk and turning out the Millenial gibmedats. I am somewhat stunned that she did not try it.


25 posted on 11/30/2016 12:31:23 PM PST by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Buckeye McFrog

——there just aren’t enough voters in this country who subscribe to the National Review version of Conservatism to win elections anymore.-—

The truth is, there never were


26 posted on 11/30/2016 12:33:28 PM PST by Thibodeaux (Exile Barack, Exile the Wookie, Exile Malia, Exile Shasha)
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To: HiTech RedNeck
What have the Republicans done in the last 25 years to even attempt to differentiate themselves from the Democrats? Basically they have been acting like Democrats in Red Coats. Reagan did not win 49 states because they were all Red states. He won because he made people feel good and they knew he was after their best interests. If things are going as good in 2020 as they were in 1984, you will probably see quite a few of the states you listed below go back red.

CA, WA, OR all used to vote reliably red from 1968 to 1988. Now they're blue.
NV, NM, CO used to be reliably red from 64-88. Since then NV is blue in 92,96,08,12,16.
NM is blue in 92, 96, 00, 08,12, 16.
CO is blue in 92, 08, 12, 16.
We're losing territory.

27 posted on 11/30/2016 12:35:30 PM PST by wareagle7295
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To: cba123

True. The GOP was headed for extinction as a globalist Party.


28 posted on 11/30/2016 12:36:16 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

Well put.


29 posted on 11/30/2016 12:36:45 PM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: YogicCowboy

There was this idea to wait until social security and medicare to go broke under the dems (since the GOP knows it is a political liability to try fixing it now) and then they could do something about it


30 posted on 11/30/2016 12:38:11 PM PST by ari-freedom (The Social Justice War is over and we won!)
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To: mollynme

Bears repeating and often.


31 posted on 11/30/2016 12:43:10 PM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

An end to:
Let’s have amnesty so hispanics will love us
Let’s outsource everything so everything will be cheaper
Let’s overthrow every non democratic regime in order to promote our values


32 posted on 11/30/2016 12:43:46 PM PST by ari-freedom (The Social Justice War is over and we won!)
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To: Buckeye McFrog
 
 
The scary thing is that I think Hillary could have won this by ramping up the Student Loan Forgiveness talk and turning out the Millenial gibmedats. I am somewhat stunned that she did not try it.
 
Same here - I fully expected the Hag to glom onto Bernie's formula and incorporate it into her campaign BS, but it never happened. Yet another bungle by team Clintoon.
 
 

33 posted on 11/30/2016 12:47:04 PM PST by lapsus calami (What's that stink? Code Pink ! ! And their buddy Murtha, too!)
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To: fortheDeclaration

Exactly. Throwing open the borders and exporting jobs is electoral suicide.


34 posted on 11/30/2016 12:47:04 PM PST by hopespringseternal
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To: wareagle7295

There is a difference. GOP also now has congress, governors and state legislatures. Reagan just had his electoral votes and a senate from time to time


35 posted on 11/30/2016 12:47:20 PM PST by ari-freedom (The Social Justice War is over and we won!)
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To: Kaslin

What they failed to calculate is that as the minority population increases, the white population would start to vote as a demographic block like minorities have been doing for decades. 30 years ago whites voted more or less 50R/50D, in this election it was more like 65R/35D and this trend will only continue.


36 posted on 11/30/2016 12:49:51 PM PST by apillar
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To: ealgeone
I'll be curios to see what happens to the western states - particularly CA and NM - when the screws are tightened down on illegals.

Just guessing here, but I'm betting that a couple of million (at least) Dem votes will evaporate.

37 posted on 11/30/2016 12:52:34 PM PST by wbill
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To: ealgeone

VA voted r for pres from 1968 to 2004. The last three it voted dem.

Turnout was actually down in 2016 compared to 2008 and 2012, which I didn’t see coming given a Trump win. We haven’t had even 65% eligible voter turnout since 1908.

FReegards


38 posted on 11/30/2016 1:03:11 PM PST by Ransomed
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To: HiTech RedNeck
The Lord had pity on the United States of America.

I think he did. This time we'd better earn it.
39 posted on 11/30/2016 1:06:29 PM PST by farming pharmer (www.sterlingheightsreport.com)
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To: wbill

Yet another beatdown for the Dems, but don’t get too confident. We’ll need another YUGE turnout in 2020 to keep Hillary from being elected as the first cadaver president.


40 posted on 11/30/2016 1:08:54 PM PST by Chauncey Gardiner
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