Posted on 11/04/2016 5:34:28 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
..... presidential contest is tied again in the White House Watch survey, but Republican Donald Trump is holding on to his 10-point lead among those who’ve already made up their minds about how they will vote.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton each with 44% support among Likely U.S. Voters. Libertarian Gary Johnson gets four percent (4%) of the vote, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at one percent
do you know for certain Rasmussen is plus 8 with Ds?
amen.
Ok I am math challenged so help me out here:
86% of voters are certain of who they’ll vote for. Of this group 53% will vote for Trump, 43% for Clinton.
14% (presumably) are undecided or not certain, and of this group Clinton leads 41% to 30% Trump and 25% Bong Guy
So I would think the math on tallying these two subsets would look like this:
Trump= (.86*.53)+(.14*.3)= 49.78%
Clinton= (.86*.43)+(.14*.41)= 42.72%
So how in the hell is it a tie?
The sovereign Lord sends souls who will believe into the world at times and places He chooses in His wisdom.
The result could be viewed here as a wildly runaway revival.
“Let it be, dear Lord, let it be!”
Or Cantorized.
Only way to make sure she won’t rise from the dead is to drive a stake through her.
Get out and vote!
Then, after the election in 1980, the pollsters said “We knew, we just didn’t tell you.”
They are liars and dirtballs, pure and simple.
I remember and I remember the night the talking heads all looked so depressed. I hope for the same or worse for them this time.
Re-weighting your sample with a different turnout mix is the only way you can do that. Given they missed by 5% in 2012 in romney’s favor, I imagine that’s why. But I think the mix is more likely to be 2000 or 2004 than 2008 given lower AA vote.
How else do they make it a tie?
Hillary is not getting more turnout than Obama.
Why do you think she has surrogates hitting the campaign trail?
I communicate with the pollster at PPD over on Twitter and he has confirmed that there is a tightening. Obviously, many of the people who reacted to Comey’s announcement last week have forgotten about it. Now, that said, Trump is still in a good position, but it is dishesrtening that there are still so many damn stupid people in this country that this election is even a question.
So then why does this poll have it a tie? It doesn’t make any sense and I wouldn’t put too much faith in it. After all, a 3 point swing in one night is rediculous, considering the fact that there were no new major news events yesterday.
BS.
Lib pollsters are playing jedi mind tricks with you.
People’s voting habits don’t bounce around a yo-yo.
And you can vote once.
That’s what I figured. I have been watching the IBD Raw Sample vs the re-weighting, and every single day of that poll they are picking up a raw sample that is R+2 to R+4. If your sampling method is truly random, after you have collected so many responses, you eventually have to accept that the sample itself is representative of the population.
To make matters worse, they aren’t just throwing out Rep and Indy responses, but making Dem responses up out of thin air.
Who would have ever guessed it would be DONALD TRUMP? Before he arose this presidential election season (after several unsuccessful attempts in previous election seasons)?
But the more I consider the Trump situation, the more it becomes apparent to me that God was crafting multiple aspects of Trump’s life to meet this challenge. It didn’t matter that he wasn’t a “highly moral” fellow or a “religious” fellow, things that surface pundits would eagerly look for. No, here was a diamond in the rough that needed cleaning and polishing. The nation had a femme and bimbo problem this year and guess who had learned, from experience, how to deal with femmes and bimbos! The nation had a business problem this year and guess who was an acceptably successful businessman! The nation had a stubborn ass problem this year, and guess who learned in WWE how to bust chairs over heads!
Dear Lord... please complete the work that You have started, through us and through Donald Trump, and bring blessing into America, and let it be not because America deserved it (it clearly didn’t) but because You desired it and sovereignly chose to grant it.
I agree.
Trump in far better shape than Reagan was in 1980.
Reagan was behind by 10; Trump is tied.
If the electorate really is R +2, Hillary stands no chance.
Trump will have a comfortable win.
We’ll have to wait four more days so we don’t have to guess.
I don’t think God has pulled every card out of His pack yet.
We may go down with something close to a 50 state Trumpalanche... dear Lord if this is what it takes to emphasize the difference between good and evil, please do it.
/pulls leg back in window and puts down knife...
That's probably "it"! Gallup had been doing presidential election polling since 1936, and they gave up after 2012.
If a pollster say's it's a tie going into the election, the worst that they are likely to be off is 2-3%.
I am skeptical of any poll using telephone land lines at this point, and skeptical of almost all the polls using the internet. There really isn't any good way to poll now.
(As for next Tuesday, a Chinese monkey chose Trump over Clinton, and that's probably as accurate as any poll!)
"A Chinese monkey described as the “king of prophets” has tipped Donald Trump for the US presidency, a tourism park said, after the creature successfully predicted the winner of football’s European Championship final earlier this year."
Please give us all the information you have to show the polls are being manipulated. I am so tired of listening to people say this sort of shit when posts look bad what are silent about manipulation when look good.
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