Posted on 10/27/2016 5:34:38 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
I don’t live in VA, so I will happily yield to your expertise there.. There is little doubt that 08 in particular was a complete abberation nationally... Between moderates anger at Bush’s wars, and Obama’s time for a black man.. you wound up with such a skewed turnout and result that using it as a baseline for ANYTHING going forward is worthless.
8 though, in most areas returned to more normal numbers, and Romney and the RNC blew it.
Every indication I have seen, is Hillary will vastly underperform 12... and in the rust belt states in particular, I truly do expect Trump to completely outperform any R in decades... Folks not from this area, I don’t think understand just how bad things are across most of these states... at least for the rural and small towns. The coordinated wealth extraction from the United States, is something they recognize intrinsically even if they can’t articulate or understand it.. its being done to this part of the nation now for decades... and its not abating anytime soon if nothing changes.... They know in their gut, even if they don’t understand currency manipulations, or quantitative easing... they know they are getting hosed, and its being done willfully and voluntarily by their own nation and its institutions. They may be life long democrats, from many generations of life long democrats, but they are not big city social liberals... they are hard working honest men and women, watching their lives being destroyed... no one caring or doing a damn thing about it... and then being asked to vote for someone who they know to be completely dishonest and living large on corruption and cheating....
Hillary just won’t play across most of it. I would love to see VA flip, and I will yield to you completely on it your opinions, I don’t spend a lot of time there. I’d love to see VA flip red... and I do agree that 08 and 12 are bad cycles to use as baselines for anything.. 08 in particular. Just like this cycle, will not be a good baseline for 20 or 24... What is happening with both of these 2 candidates is so far outside the norm, that using this election however it turns out as a baseline predictive model for the next one will be comical.
Keep fighting hard... GOTV... We got this.
This is the official link to follow if you want accurate VA vote information. Early vote (which we don’t have, it’s absentee voting) is up substantially. Not sure where this guy is getting his figures. Hampton Roads is down 6% but NOVA is up 63. Trump needs huge margins out west to overcome that. I live in Va Beach, it’s not red, it’s purple. Usually 50/50 for presidential elections but tilts very conservative (about 60/40) for midterms.
http://www.vpap.org/visualizations/early-voting
Oh I agree, younger voters aren’t going to turn out for Hillary like they did for O.. she will underperform Obama in all demographics... that’s a certainty... for crying out loud she can’t get 3000 people to show up for a rally... her VP candidate literally is drawing crowds that are counted in the dozens.. There is ZERO chance this candidate will get turnout and enthusiasm anywhere near 12 levels, let alone 8 levels... and its ludicrous they keep trying to sell us the lie that she’s dominating this thing.
Obama won nationally by about 7%.. and they are trying to feed us polls showing Hillary with those sorts of leads, or heaven forbid 12 points?? its ludicrous... at 12 points she would be outperforming Reagan v Carter... its laughable.
This race has always only had 3 possible outcomes.... A complete blowout/landslide for Trump... or a squeeker that goes either way... The media trying to spin that Hillary is looking at a landslide victory for the last few weeks is just insulting and comical.
I do think sadly, the personal destruction attacks on Trumps character may have taken this election out of the major landslide category for him... but time will tell... There is a LOT of pent up anger, and certainly no enthusiasm for Hillary...
I do believe this will be the biggest EFF U in human political history....
Soros has spent BILLIONS trying to get 8 Million US citizens that live abroad registered and voting in the election to influence the outcome for Hillary.... I suspect you are going to see some pretty interesting things with absentee ballots... this man is satan.
What I don’t get is this. We had a big wave election in 2014. We had a wave election in 2010. And the punditry simply pretends as if they never happened. It is almost bizarre. (Almost, but not really — the punditry just wants people to forget that the turnouts of ‘10 and ‘14 are even possible).
I have a theory on this. I don’t actually think ‘94, ‘02, ‘10, and ‘14 were actually anomalies, “wave” elections, or represented some kind of non-normal turnout. I believe they actually represent the true political alignment in this country. And it is actually the actions of the GOP establishment who, through both ineptitude and design, have suppressed that alignment. In other words, the turnouts in ‘92, ‘98, ‘00, ‘06, ‘08, and ‘12 were the *real* anomalies (I don’t count ‘96 or ‘04, for reasons not important here). This supression was caused by (in order): Bush SR., general GOP incompetence, Bush Jr., Bush Jr., McCain, and Romney. In 04, the real alignment emerged, at least partially, but only because of the outright assault on our military by the left.
If this is true, I would expect the turnout this year to resemble that of two years ago. And the current polling will therefore be dramatically off, since the turnout of ‘08, and the turnout of ‘14, were so dramatically different. And I would expect this, even though CW states that these Republican “wave” elections are only possible in off-year elections, when no-one is paying attention. CW, as usual, will be proven wrong. The Republicans never have “wave” presidential elections, because we usually nominate someone like Bush or Romney, not because the general political alignment is unfavorable.
I know Newport News, loved there from 2006 to January 2014. It’s population is about 185,000, about 40% black. Normally heavily Dem but who knows what inroads Trump has made among black voters. VA Beach is largest city in VA, fairly affluent, about 445,000. It used to be Republican but now is barely leaning R. Nearby Norfolk is less affluent, heavily military, but may lean Dem.
2016 is not 2008 or 2012 where the Democrat Candidate for President was a known felon and conspirator.
Thanks for the insights. I’ve been saying that VA is basically a tie for awhile now. It’s all going to depend on three things: turnout, turnout, and turnout. I’m also a little more sanguine given fraud and the illegal vote in FFX and NOVA. We’ll find out by about midnight on the 8th.
Maybe they can run Rubio.
You explain how in VA too demographics are destiny.
Excellent point; the Democrats don't believe the "little people" can understand their plight.
Here’s a question for all:
If SoVa turns out with enthusiasm for us (which it looks like)
AND
NoVa Dems come out the same way as 2012 BUT:
- former Bernie voters vote Trump (REDDIT interview on Bill Mitchell show say upto 30%)
- Black voters split off 20-25% for Trump (Trump’s VP of Diversity Outreach says this is happening overall)
Will this be enough to tip VA back to us? I’m curious.
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