Posted on 10/27/2016 5:34:38 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Obama only won Virginia by 115K votes in 2012.
A low AA showing, plus Trump getting 15% AA, and Trump voter enthusiasm = TRUMP WIN.
I predict Trump wins Virginia.
I think it’s Pig in a pantsuit. Could be mistaken.
I agree that few are enthusiastic about Hillary, but we'll see what happens election day. McAwful has been busy restoring the voting rights of felons. The state supreme court struck down his executive order, but allowed him to restore rights on an individual basis. The number could be anywhere between 20,000 to 200,000 as he pledged at the democrat convention. :(
It is not early voting like in other states.
The Commonwealth of Virginia allows absentee voting for numerous citizens: active duty and reserve and guard military members, college students and citizens who can use any of 10-15 reasons (gonna be in hospital, on vacation, on business travel, ect.) to absentee / “vote early” before the polls open on the actual election day.
I voted (Trump) absentee this past Tuesday and used code / reason 4E which allows me to absentee vote because I have a long commute to and from work each day that could prevent me from voting on election day. I also had to tell them where I work and what company I work for.....
I had to show a photo id @ the county electoral board office, fill out a form that is generated from our id and attest with signatute that I have a valid excuse to absentee vote.
Typically the Commonwealth of Virginia gets crappy weather most election days. The weather can prevent my commuter bus from getting me to my car in time to get to my voting precint.
what about female voter enthusiasm? if there is low female voter enthusiasm, imho since VA does not have many hispanics, that hillary’s chances of winning va would be slim to none.
(is it over? and if so, when will cnn give up?)
only by fraud
All Dem strongholds other than NoVA. NoVA contains one-third of the vote. It is where the Dems build up their big cushion. Those numbers would be interesting.
Big early voting in VA, especially NoVA.
NOVA will not be enough.
Lurch fell short in 2004.
Looks like VA is reverting to pre-2008 voting patterns.
That should benefit Trump.
I say, get out in vote now while you can. Come election day, you may stand in line for hours only to be informed upon checking in that you already voted --if the precinct in your heavily Republican neighborhood hasn't been firebombed.
Who knows what shenanigans are going to be taking place?
I voted early here in Florida. No line. No monkey business. Let Hillary voters get frustrated by the wait times on election day and go home. They don't really like her that much to begin with.
We need some one on VA-—not you Speedy, you do enough. Can anyone help?
OK. I get it. Thanks for your info!
IMO - D2+ is as good as Hillary gets. Early black voting is way down in NC, Ohio, VA, IA, etc. Heavy black voting got Obama +6. No way HRC does better (IMO).
I have seen the Dem NoVA GOTV operation up close and personal. There is no way the Dem vote will be depressed there. Early voting allows them to marshal the vote and even commit voter fraud. The Dems are obsessive, vicious, well-funded, and organized in NoVA.
In 2012 we were able to increase the GOP vote by almost 100,000 compared to 2008. It was a massive GOTV effort. The Dems still won the state by 150,000 and increased their number by 25,000. Non-Hispanic whites, the power base of the GOP, are dying off. The Dems are increasing their numbers thru immigration and minority birthrates. By 2019 half of the children 18 and under are minorities as defined by the USG. Each cohort that turns 18 annually is more minority and more Dem.
One third of the vote is located in NoVA. In 2012 Obama amassed a margin of 224,000 votes in just Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria (city), Prince William, and Loudoun counties. Obama won by 149,000 statewide. Then you toss in predominantly black cities like Hampton (28,000 margin for Obama), Newport News (24,000 for Obama), Norfolk (40,000 for Obama), and Richmond (55,000 for Obama). These are huge numbers to overcome.
The only hope is a depressed black vote (they make up 20% of the population) or Trump gets a surprising number of black votes. Blacks don’t like the Clintons. And a much larger turnout from the rural areas.
What about the new group...likely felon voters?
These are dramatic numbers.
It says that turnout in Dem strongholds in Virgina, at this point in early voting, is only about a third of what it was in 2012.
It shows VERY low African American enthusiasm.
In 2012, African Americans made up a record 13% of those voting nationwide. If they just revert to normal turnout levels, they will be more like 10% or 11%. These results indicate below normal African American turnout. On top of that, polling indicates that relatively more may be voting for Trump (although that is less of a factor than turnout will be).
If this holds nationwide, it would mean 3%-4%, or more, of the total vote lost to Democrats, compared to 2012. The effect would be big in swing States.
The Democrats will need to make exceptional efforts to agitate their AA base. The traditional “Shake the Sheets at Them” (KKK is coming to get you!), seems to be falling flat. They rolled out Michelle Obama (more popular with AA’s than Obama himself) to campaign with Hillary.
Typically, the Dems bank a big lead in early voting. Without that, election day turnout will be even more important.
I work near heavily black Portsmouth and travel through it often. Not that political signs are a sure indicator, but there are virtually no Hillary signs to be seen anywhere. Back in 2012, the landscape was full of Obama signs.
One thing about Virginia, fellow FReepers. With the exception of the wave election of 2008, GOP candidates’ supporters tend to break late for them, giving them a better showing than pre-election polls show. A prime case in point is Ed Gillespie’s showing against Mark Warner two years ago. Gillespie trailed by double digits for almost the entire year, closed to 9 in the final week, and came to within less than a point on Election Day.
Virginia Beach is the state’s largest city and heavily military and middle class. Trump will do very well there. The Western 2/3 of the state is Trump and its not even close. It all depends on turnout. If Trump can get just a bit more to turn out than Romney did in 2012. he wins the state
That’s my understanding as well. My mother in law may have “lied” that she needed to vote absentee and called it early voting although this article calls it early voting? On a positive note, just got word that my nephew who is black and also attends Princeton in his second year and who we were certain would succumb to the liberal indoctrination up there as a poli sci and Econ major just sent off his absentee ballot to Virginia for Trump. Go Trump!
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