Posted on 10/13/2016 10:29:32 AM PDT by taildragger
Freepers and Treepers (also here)....
What is your gut and eyes telling you about this race? Forget the polls, landlines are .09 of the aggregate. The Media and The EGOP establishment and all Globalist was DJT destroyed Politically....
Frankly my eyes and my heart tell me different.
Here are some of my Anecdotal stories....
* Airline pilot friend tells me electronic scratch pad to leave the replacement team any squawks on the aircraft has A.B.C. on it, aka Anybody but Clinton.
* Overheard some construction workers yesterday on a campus saying something about "Bill" and then Trump said, and laughter, my take? they were ragging on Bill...
* One of my friends tell me in one of his mens group in MI is a senior doing Uber. He ask his clients who they are voting for not one has said Hilda, they are all for Trump.
* Novi Trump rally ( and so many others ) 1/2 line to get in and we stood in the rain to get in.
Tell me what you see and what your gut tells you....
Lutz's last panel of undecideds were 17 DJT 9 HRC 4 undecided 17/30 -'s 56% for Trump, the same number "Sundance" over @ "ConservativeTreeHouse" says will be Trumps percentage in the general. Ditto that the Straw Poll at the Iowa fair, it was 56% as well...
I look forward to your stories,
E Pluribus Non-Carborundum, Don't let the SOB's wear you down!
Thank you NicksAunt, and thanks to all the posters. I hope it counteracts all the pearl clutching chicken little's, TDS-er's, and people like Hugh Hewitt, that IMHO finally went around the bend the other day with his thoughts on it's over.
In the words of John Belushi: "Over? Did you say “over”? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! ;-)
The folks you talked to NA, notice all in their 20's and 30's and have had to launch careers in this "Recovery" with supposed 4.9% Unemployment, ( U6 is more like north of 11%) with a GDP that is below the 3% norm or 2% keep your head above water, 94 million off the work roles and 40+ million on food stamps.
Are these 20 somethings on a screed against the Obama economy of which I noted is his baby, he can't blame it on Bush and the fact they get, she will be an extension of his econ-madness?
It is interesting the guy they are going to pull the lever for has more of a Reagansque free market hemoglobin running thru his economic veins vs the nuevo-euro-social-blaness & control that we have had for the last 8 years.
They want kids as well is my guess and they know this Obama economy just ain't cutting it have a family, heck some of their brethren are still stuck in mom and pops basement....
But the media won't pay attention to such things.
I just don’t think that’s right. It’s what we all said here last time. The polls over sample Dems, yada yada.... and in the end, the polls were very, very accurate. And place like Rasmussen were very, very wrong.
I think many of the polls “oversample” Dems because there are simply MORE Dems. Look at where the people live in the states that vote Blue? It’s always the inner cities where the concentration of the population is. It holds true in every state. There are blue states where the Dems win one county, ONE! and win the entire state. That’s not going to change any time soon.
The way it factors into this election is that many Dems hate her almost as much as they hate him and MAY not turn out. They may not turn out in enough force to offset the rural voters. We’ll see. But right now, I’m a bit less than cautiously optimistic.
Hopefully, I’m wrong.
Rallies:
These are great and provide good optics. But people who attend rallies are generally already committed to the candidate. A big, enthusiastic rally fires up the base and probably helps with turnout. They indicate deep support and commitment, but are not dispositive proof of broad support. Campaign rallies are a somewhat 19th century form of campaigning, the Chautauqua tents of William Jennings Bryan and Teddy Roosevelt. A successful candidate today needs to go beyond just that.
Yard Signs, Bumper Stickers, etc.
In my area (suburb, moderately large Midwest city) a good number of Clinton-Kaine signs, saw one "Hillary for Prison" sign and a great "Remember Benghazi" sign. No Trump-Pence signs or stickers. I think the fear factor is in play here.
TV Ads:
Hillary is saturating the airwaves. She has a version of the infamous LBJ "daisy ad" going where there is a (supposedly) former USAF missile site officer in a mockup missile launch control room gravely intoning that "he feared turning those keys" and hoped that whoever was at the top had the "temperament" to make the decision correctly, and that was not Trump, of course. The Trump campaign needs to start running ads to counter this kind of thing, because if unanswered it becomes "true" in the minds of the sheeple.
I also agree with 538 - only really pay attention to polls starting 21 days out and with firms that have done consistant polls with the past year.
I too am familiar with polling misses and failures in the past few years; Brexit, the 2015 British elections, the under counting of the GOP win in 2014, the abject failure to detect Larry Hogan winning MD, and the bad polling for the state of Virginia going on for years. (From the Cantor loss, to Gillespie only losing by 11k when they told us it would be a blowout, etc.)
However, that being said, I can only view the data being collected.
“I told the GOP caller just today that I’m voting Trump and a few local races.
After that, I’m no longer Republican.
Trump has exposed so many. Assange, Snowden, Guccifer, Guccifer2, and Anonymous are becoming heroes to me, too.
The media? Well. They have names.”
We will be voting for Trump this weekend via absentee ballot and probably against every prop on the California ballot.
My wife still gets bs from the RNC, which we throw in the trash. She doesn’t want her name removed because it costs them a lot of money.
I stopped donating to them and gave to the Swift Boat fund.
Then, I sent them all of their requests for money in a big envelope with a 1 cent stamp on the outside with no return address, and told them to take me off their mailing list.
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