Posted on 09/21/2016 3:16:17 PM PDT by Trump20162020
If WSJ/NBC told us the sky is blue and the grass is green I would go outside and look.
After reading cdga5for4’s posting history, I think you have something there.
This was the most consistently wrong poll against Trump the entire primary. Sometimes off by 15 pts.
Just for fun I looked up the PA primary results. The NBC-WSJ poll had predicted Trump would get 45% of the vote, but he actually got 55%. They were off by 10 points.
I am thinking about how they reach their respondents. Polls are conducted on land lines in an age when more people are exclusively on cell phones. I believe cell phone users are politically different than those who use land lines. Also, those more likely to answer on land lines are those who are home and do not screen their calls from caller I.D. If they had caller I.D. they would less likely to answer the call. This makes the possibility of live contacts much reduced. As one who has conducted numerous phone calls for my candidate, live contacts are a rarity. Those who do answer the call will rarely participate in a telephone poll. So, out of how many attempts does a pollster get a respondent for their questions? And, when a respondent is reached, what is their political bias and do they represent the political population at large? I strongly think not.
After reading cdga5for4’s posting history, I think you have something there.
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My posting history has been primarily anti-Hillary posts. Just last week I posted a video from a speech she made a number of years ago about Parkinson’s where it sounded like she was talking about her own experience.
I desperately want Hillary to lose. I just don’t believe that many people are passionate about Donald Trump. I also have grave concern that this country is lost to a bunch of ignorant and uniformed people who are clueless. I used to think the decline was overstated. Today’s news gives fresh example after fresh example that this country is full of dumbasses.
It’s a D +8 poll....its over-sampled by a long shot for this election.
Soooo, how do you account foe the LA Times Poll that shows Trump up by 5 pts. yesterday?
If these polls are so accurate, why didn’t they predict the overall 44% that Bernie got against Hillary or any number of Trump victories, particularly Indiana, where all the pundits and polls said he was going to get killed by a Kasich/Cruz sandwich?
Anyone notice that even at this stage in time, Hillary can not get out of the low 40s? She might be ahead in this poll that apparently has an 8% oversampling of Dems, but still constantly being at that number is certainly no great shakes.
Keep telling the same lie over and over and it becomes real in the minds of fools. Alas, NBC loves the tactic.
Hogwash!!! Bogus poll. End of story.
We should pay attention to the polls and showing Clinton leading should motivate us to do more work in helping Trump.
All the polls have been trending Trump’s way for weeks and now we have a surprise Hillary up huge poll and we’re not supposed to question it?
I’m sick of these polls and especially the “dead-heat s**t,”
by people who should know better.
Trump’s going to beat her like a rented mule. 10 points, 40 states.
Take it to the bank.
It would be one thing if a certain poll was simply historically erroneous. But this particular poll has been erroneously undervaluing only Trump support by 8 or more points, and overvaluing his opponents' support, every week for a year and 3 months.
Discredited.
I'm I missing something here?
1. Gary Johnson is not going to win 10%. He won 0.99% in 2012. My guess is 3%. Maybe 4%.
2. Jill Stein might win 3%, and that's if she's not arrested with her VP for that outstanding criminal trespass and vandalism warrant. She could pick up unhappy Bernie supporters (Trump could help them remember during the debates!)
My guess is 2/3 of the remaining 6-7% of "Johnson" voters will vote for Trump, and the other 1/3 will be too stoned to vote. My other guesses are that 7% aren't really undecided, and that a few % of "shy" Trump voters are hiding in Hillary's total.
Something stinks here. Most polls after Labor Day switch from registered voters to likely voters but this one has not:
The telephone poll of 1,000 registered voters, conducted Sept. 16-19, carries a margin for error of 3.1 percentage points. Among the 922 respondents deemed “likely voters,” the margin for error is 3.23 percent
Poll conducted by journalist for Clinton campaign. By the way this poll was one of the worst in the primaries. They always had Trump lower than he really was.
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