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Heading into first debate, Clinton with 6 point lead over Trump: New NBC-WSJ poll
CNBC ^ | September 21, 2016 | John Harwood

Posted on 09/21/2016 3:16:17 PM PDT by Trump20162020

Hillary Clinton heads toward the first general election debate in strong position against Donald Trump in their battle for the presidency, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows.

Among likely voters, Clinton draws 43 percent support to 37 percent for Trump, 10 percent for Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, and 3 percent for Green Party nominee Jill Stein.

Respondents "revealed a hardening of personal dislike and professional uncertainty about Donald Trump," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the NBC/WSJ survey.

(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016debates; 2016polls; clinton; nbc; nbcnews; trump
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To: Trump20162020

If WSJ/NBC told us the sky is blue and the grass is green I would go outside and look.


21 posted on 09/21/2016 3:31:31 PM PDT by ColdOne ((poochie... Tasha 2000~3/14/11~ Hillary Clinton......unfit to serve, shovel ready. I am deplorable.))
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To: DAC21
The highlight of this election is the complete exposure of liars...media, hILLary, and her syncopates.
22 posted on 09/21/2016 3:32:17 PM PDT by hal ogen (First Amendment or Reeducation Camp?.)
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To: Trump20162020; cdga5for4

After reading cdga5for4’s posting history, I think you have something there.


23 posted on 09/21/2016 3:32:24 PM PDT by redfreedom
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To: bray

This was the most consistently wrong poll against Trump the entire primary. Sometimes off by 15 pts.

Just for fun I looked up the PA primary results. The NBC-WSJ poll had predicted Trump would get 45% of the vote, but he actually got 55%. They were off by 10 points.

24 posted on 09/21/2016 3:35:27 PM PDT by Gideon7
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To: Two Kids' Dad

I am thinking about how they reach their respondents. Polls are conducted on land lines in an age when more people are exclusively on cell phones. I believe cell phone users are politically different than those who use land lines. Also, those more likely to answer on land lines are those who are home and do not screen their calls from caller I.D. If they had caller I.D. they would less likely to answer the call. This makes the possibility of live contacts much reduced. As one who has conducted numerous phone calls for my candidate, live contacts are a rarity. Those who do answer the call will rarely participate in a telephone poll. So, out of how many attempts does a pollster get a respondent for their questions? And, when a respondent is reached, what is their political bias and do they represent the political population at large? I strongly think not.


25 posted on 09/21/2016 3:35:52 PM PDT by jonrick46 (The Left has a mental disorder: A totalitarian mindset..)
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To: redfreedom

After reading cdga5for4’s posting history, I think you have something there.

_______________________________________________

My posting history has been primarily anti-Hillary posts. Just last week I posted a video from a speech she made a number of years ago about Parkinson’s where it sounded like she was talking about her own experience.

I desperately want Hillary to lose. I just don’t believe that many people are passionate about Donald Trump. I also have grave concern that this country is lost to a bunch of ignorant and uniformed people who are clueless. I used to think the decline was overstated. Today’s news gives fresh example after fresh example that this country is full of dumbasses.


26 posted on 09/21/2016 3:38:23 PM PDT by cdga5for4
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To: cdga5for4

It’s a D +8 poll....its over-sampled by a long shot for this election.


27 posted on 09/21/2016 3:38:25 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: cdga5for4

Soooo, how do you account foe the LA Times Poll that shows Trump up by 5 pts. yesterday?

If these polls are so accurate, why didn’t they predict the overall 44% that Bernie got against Hillary or any number of Trump victories, particularly Indiana, where all the pundits and polls said he was going to get killed by a Kasich/Cruz sandwich?


28 posted on 09/21/2016 3:39:38 PM PDT by EarlT357
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To: cdga5for4

Anyone notice that even at this stage in time, Hillary can not get out of the low 40s? She might be ahead in this poll that apparently has an 8% oversampling of Dems, but still constantly being at that number is certainly no great shakes.


29 posted on 09/21/2016 3:39:39 PM PDT by OttawaFreeper ("If I had to go to war again, I'd bring lacrosse players" Conn Smythe)
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To: Trump20162020

Keep telling the same lie over and over and it becomes real in the minds of fools. Alas, NBC loves the tactic.


30 posted on 09/21/2016 3:41:23 PM PDT by Uncle Sam 911
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To: Trump20162020

Hogwash!!! Bogus poll. End of story.


31 posted on 09/21/2016 3:49:37 PM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX (Defeat both the Republican (e) & Democrat (e) political parties....Forever!!!)
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To: cdga5for4

We should pay attention to the polls and showing Clinton leading should motivate us to do more work in helping Trump.


32 posted on 09/21/2016 3:50:12 PM PDT by Rusty0604
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To: Trump20162020

33 posted on 09/21/2016 3:50:48 PM PDT by Voluntaryist
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To: cdga5for4

All the polls have been trending Trump’s way for weeks and now we have a surprise Hillary up huge poll and we’re not supposed to question it?


34 posted on 09/21/2016 3:51:19 PM PDT by Mjreagan
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To: OttawaFreeper

I’m sick of these polls and especially the “dead-heat s**t,”
by people who should know better.

Trump’s going to beat her like a rented mule. 10 points, 40 states.

Take it to the bank.


35 posted on 09/21/2016 3:51:50 PM PDT by huckfillary
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To: cdga5for4
Please point out the NBC/WSJ poll that has been correct since the day Trump announced. Oh wait, you can't, because there hasn't been a single one.

It would be one thing if a certain poll was simply historically erroneous. But this particular poll has been erroneously undervaluing only Trump support by 8 or more points, and overvaluing his opponents' support, every week for a year and 3 months.

Discredited.

36 posted on 09/21/2016 4:06:30 PM PDT by M. Thatcher
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To: Trump20162020
The poll says "likely voters" the question was asked:
"Did you happen to vote in the 2014 election for U.S. Congress" answer: 32% did not vote

I'm I missing something here?

37 posted on 09/21/2016 4:09:38 PM PDT by Steve Van Doorn (*in my best Eric Cartman voice* 'I love you, guys')
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To: Trump20162020
Among likely voters, Clinton draws 43 percent support to 37 percent for Trump, 10 percent for Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, and 3 percent for Green Party nominee Jill Stein. When the choice is limited to the Democratic and Republican nominees, Clinton's lead grows to seven percentage points, 48 percent to 41 percent.

1. Gary Johnson is not going to win 10%. He won 0.99% in 2012. My guess is 3%. Maybe 4%.

2. Jill Stein might win 3%, and that's if she's not arrested with her VP for that outstanding criminal trespass and vandalism warrant. She could pick up unhappy Bernie supporters (Trump could help them remember during the debates!)

My guess is 2/3 of the remaining 6-7% of "Johnson" voters will vote for Trump, and the other 1/3 will be too stoned to vote. My other guesses are that 7% aren't really undecided, and that a few % of "shy" Trump voters are hiding in Hillary's total.

38 posted on 09/21/2016 4:13:56 PM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Every nation has the government it deserves." - Joseph de Maistre (1753-1821))
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To: Trump20162020

Something stinks here. Most polls after Labor Day switch from registered voters to likely voters but this one has not:

The telephone poll of 1,000 registered voters, conducted Sept. 16-19, carries a margin for error of 3.1 percentage points. Among the 922 respondents deemed “likely voters,” the margin for error is 3.23 percent


39 posted on 09/21/2016 4:14:41 PM PDT by gunnut
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To: Trump20162020

Poll conducted by journalist for Clinton campaign. By the way this poll was one of the worst in the primaries. They always had Trump lower than he really was.


40 posted on 09/21/2016 4:15:43 PM PDT by Parley Baer (")
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