Posted on 08/18/2016 6:31:46 AM PDT by usafa92
Edited on 08/18/2016 7:31:47 AM PDT by Sidebar Moderator. [history]
The race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton continues to tighten as it moves further from the conventions, but both candidates are still struggling to close the deal.
Trump has been steadily losing ground since mid-July when his support peaked at 44%, while this is the second week in a row that Clinton's support has fallen from an identical 44% just after the Democratic National Convention. Clinton held a 43% to 40% edge over Trump last week.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
I wish there was a secret vote, but that has not been the case since Nixon.
Without a push poll, not 1 person in 100 could even name the Libertarian candidate.
Where’s McMuffin?
Fyi
The states follow the national averages. All states have a D+ or R+ rating which closely aligns to the national numbers. Except in a few rare cases the EC will align to the popular vote.
Those are good numbers for Trump, only behind two points... question is ....why am I not comforted it by them?!
Dunno. You should be. Fourth poll in a week showing the race at 3 (USC, UPI, Zogby). Even Reuters shows a 4 point Cankles drop.
ALL of these are showing the same thing: Cankles’ little dog and pony show at the convention is over, and Trump steadily gaining everywhere. As these speeches filter out-—and they will, despite the drive bys-—I expect him to keep moving up.
A tie on election day is about a 2-3 point Trump win because of those afraid to go “on record” to pollsters or others. But more important, the turnout margin (1/2m more GOP in the primaries) combined with WHERE the turnout is (for Dems, CA and NY and IL) means that in the critical states GOP turnout should produce big margins.
Seventeen families live on our cul de sac. We have monthly pot lucks attended by twelve of them - the other five are H1B’ers and don’t participate in anything. Only one other guy and I talk openly about all things political and our house is the only one that ever puts out political signs.
At our monthly gathering last weekend we talked with husbands and wives of all the other families. All of them say they are voting for Trump but would never tell that to anyone else who asks them. IMO, the secret Trump vote is HUGE!
Johnson at 9% is BS.
Probably more than half will vote Trump, but not admit it.
You are correct to a point. But Clinton isn’t going to win Texas and Trump isn’t going to win CA.
There are many states which fall one way or the other. Thus spend time on the swing states and
don’t get all hyped about those that aren’t going to be changed. A few votes in a couple of the
swing states could well change the outcome such as FL did a few elections back.
We must remember that a national poll gives insight into the likelihood that different states are in play.
For example, this 2% point difference should bear in mind that a balanced poll will have sampling from every state. With California being the largest state, California should have a large number of their citizens in the poll. Importantly, California is largely democratic. Therefore, a significant proportion of Clinton’s support in the poll is based out of a California that is large in its support of Clinton.
With only a 2% difference, that means that other states, especially purple states, should be closer on average to being nearly tied. So, there are some guesses that aren’t entirely speculation that can be gleaned from a national poll that has the candidates virtually tied.
It says that there’s a good chance a lot of states are tied.
Add Johnsons 9 to Trump 39 and you get Trumps REAL number.
48%.
No one is going to vote for Johnson.
He’ll get 3-4%
Yeah, in theory, but the state polls in PA, OH, VA and CO have been crap lately. I do think that will change. VA and CO are the two biggest concerns.
Because he was up after the convention and if he were up in the polls now we could put it in the bag.
There’s another poll, the LA Daybreak poll, that shows Hillary with a 1% lead...
But when you dig into it you learn that Trump is leading with the over 65% crowd and he’s also slightly ahead in the 35-65 crowd.
But because Hillary was leading the 34 and under crowd by 6% that moved her ahead of the Don.
It made me laugh because the one group least likely to vote in any election is the younger voters.
In fact if that poll is correct I’d be shocked if Trump doesn’t end up winning 40 states.
What about Bloomberg, I thought that showed a 2-point race too.
Yes, you are correct. Five.
In our southern, rural Ohio counties, I can say anecdotally that Trump is far ahead. I can also affirm that folks are really reluctant to show ANY colors on this election. I got a crew of 4 workers and an owner talking earlier this week. After a bit of diversionary comments about issues, they broached the subject of Trump — thought they were on safe ground. Suddenly, pro-Trump fervor flowed from EACH AND EVERY ONE OF THEM.
All male, all working, and one a very successful entrepreneur.
If Hillary is doing with blacks in Cleveland like she is nationally, then she will lose Ohio. Obama took 100% of black Cleveland precincts (102% sometimes????)
She cannot afford to lose a single black vote upstate with the rural vote at an overwhelming level for Trump.
Hey, Johnson/Weld could be a fun, new product... Of course, it could be really painful, too.
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