The states follow the national averages. All states have a D+ or R+ rating which closely aligns to the national numbers. Except in a few rare cases the EC will align to the popular vote.
You are correct to a point. But Clinton isn’t going to win Texas and Trump isn’t going to win CA.
There are many states which fall one way or the other. Thus spend time on the swing states and
don’t get all hyped about those that aren’t going to be changed. A few votes in a couple of the
swing states could well change the outcome such as FL did a few elections back.
We must remember that a national poll gives insight into the likelihood that different states are in play.
For example, this 2% point difference should bear in mind that a balanced poll will have sampling from every state. With California being the largest state, California should have a large number of their citizens in the poll. Importantly, California is largely democratic. Therefore, a significant proportion of Clinton’s support in the poll is based out of a California that is large in its support of Clinton.
With only a 2% difference, that means that other states, especially purple states, should be closer on average to being nearly tied. So, there are some guesses that aren’t entirely speculation that can be gleaned from a national poll that has the candidates virtually tied.
It says that there’s a good chance a lot of states are tied.