Posted on 07/12/2016 10:29:17 AM PDT by usafa92
West Long Branch, NJ - Donald Trump holds a nominal 2 point lead over Hillary Clinton in the battle for Iowa's electoral votes, according to the Monmouth University Poll. In the race for U.S. Senate, incumbent Chuck Grassley has a 10 point lead over Democratic challenger Patty Judge. This is a far cry from the 30+ point margins Grassley enjoyed in prior re-election bids, as more Iowa voters disapprove than approve of his decision not to hold hearings on Barack Obama's Supreme Court nominee.
Among Iowa voters likely to participate in November's presidential election, 44% currently support Trump and 42% back Clinton. Another 6% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 1% say they will support Green Party candidate Jill Stein, 2% say they will vote for another candidate, and 6% are undecided.
Among self-identified Republicans, 87% support Trump while 6% choose Clinton, 5% back Johnson, and 1% support Stein or another candidate. Among Democrats, 86% support Clinton while 8% choose Trump, 2% back Johnson, and 1% support Stein or another candidate. Among independents, 39% are with Trump and 35% are with Clinton, while 10% back Johnson and 4% choose Stein or another candidate. Clinton has the lead among women voters by 54% to 33%. Trump has a similar edge among men of 56% to 29%.
One unusual finding in the poll is that Trump leads among voters under 50 years old in Iowa. In Monmouth polls conducted nationally and in other states, Clinton has held an advantage with younger voters. Specifically, 51% of Iowa voters under age 50 currently support Trump, compared to 32% for Clinton, 7% for Johnson, and 3% for Stein or another candidate. Among voters age 50 and older, Clinton has the edge with 50% support, compared to 38% for Trump, 4% for Johnson and 1% for Stein or another candidate.
"It's a toss-up right now, but Iowa could be the leading edge of a midwest push for Trump," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Iowa voters take a similarly dim view of both major party candidates. Only 32% have a favorable opinion of Clinton while 56% hold an unfavorable view of her. Likewise, only 33% have a favorable opinion of Trump while 51% hold an unfavorable view of him. More than 4-in-10 voters (45%) feel it is very important to keep Clinton from being elected president, which is slightly more than the number (40%) who say the same about Trump.
There is not a clear consensus on which candidate is more likely to help "the little guy" - a campaign theme that has been emerging over the past few weeks. Clinton has a slight edge here, with 38% who say she is more likely to look out for the little guy compared to 30% who say this describes Trump more. Another 4% say this describes both of them equally, but 24% say neither candidate is likely to look out for the little guy.
On the other hand, recent news about how Clinton handled her private email server while Secretary of State poses a drag on her candidacy. More than 4-in-10 Iowa voters (43%) believe that the Democratic nominee acted criminally, another 32% say she showed poor judgment and just 11% say she did nothing out of the ordinary, while another 15% offer no opinion.
Turning to the Hawkeye State's U.S. Senate race, six-term incumbent Chuck Grassley currently has 52% of the likely vote and former Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge has 42%. Just over 9-in-10 Republicans (92%) back Grassley and over 8-in-10 Democrats (83%) support Judge. Independents prefer Grassley by a 52% to 40% margin. Grassley leads among men by 66% to 30%, while Judge has an advantage among women of 53% to 40%.
Grassley's job approval numbers are higher than his personal ratings. A majority of likely voters (56%) approve of the overall job he is doing in the Senate while just 33% disapprove. Somewhat fewer voters (46%) have a favorable opinion of him personally, although just 31% have an unfavorable opinion, with 23% registering no opinion. By comparison, Patty Judge gets a 30% favorable and 14% unfavorable personal rating, with 56% registering no opinion of her.
One issue that is keeping Grassley's margin lower than past elections is his decision not to hold Judiciary Committee hearings on Merrick Garland, President Obama's choice to replace the late Justice Antonin Scalia. Only 25% of voters approve of Grassley not holding hearings on the nomination - including 48% of Republicans, 22% of independents, and 6% of Democrats. More voters (39%) say they disapprove of the senator's inaction on this issue - including 71% of Democrats, 39% of independents, and 8% of Republicans. Another 36% of Iowa voters have no opinion on this.
"Grassley's overall job approval rating should be enough to give him the win unless Judge can make further inroads on the Garland issue," said Murray.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from July 8 to 11, 2016 with 401 Iowa residents likely to vote in the November election. This sample has a margin of error of + 4.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
This poll is really good news.
http://www.270towin.com/states/Iowa
Iowa has gone Blue 6 out of the last 7 elections. Obama won by almost 10% in 2008 and almost 6% in 2012. Like every battleground state, Obama lost % of votes in 2012.
This poll should scare the hell out of the Beast. Iowa was considered one of the least competitive battleground states for the GOP. I’m sure the Beast didn’t plan on spending much time or money here. And if he is winning here, then there is probably more good news to come.
Breakdowns are D 33%, R 28%.
Probably about right in IA.
Likely voters, but MOE of almost 5%. Trump COULD be up much bigger, could be a tie.
At least it’s not those crazy up 12 numbers from a week and a half ago that hillary had!!!
I never believed them but i did believe she was up by 5.
That’s ALL GONE with Comey’s damning praise :)
“even W all lost IA”
W won the state in 2008.
Be pretty hard since he wasn’t running in 08.
You mean he won in 04. McCain lost IA in 08.
As we get closer to the election, pollsters will go from trying to influence the election (such as giving favorable democrat poll numbers) to actually reporting factual results of their surveys so they dont lose credibility.
“Trump seems to be edging up in all these polls. Good news. GO TRUMP GO”
Given the total ownership of polling by the left anything that says Trump has a slight edge means he’s ahead by double digits.
Encouraging his supporters to vote for *&#$ing Gary Johnson is NOT going to help beat Hillary.
Isn't it about time to drop that sh*t and back the Republican nominee by uniting the party again?
Excellent news. 5% of the GOP and 10% of Independents are supporting Johnson right now.
A majority of those are protest votes against Trump. As the campaign draws to a close, a lot of those people will make a last minute decision to not support a candidate that is polling at under 10% and will switch to Trump, which could mean another 2 to 3% swing in favor of Trump. Clinton will pick up almost none of the Libertarian adherents.
Also noteworthy is that the Green party is only polling at 1%, which means Clinton can’t pick up many from that column.
Now that's horse chit. Clinton is getting smoked.
it would be very disappinting indeed if Trump doesn’t win by at least 20 points in Iowa. Iowans are smart people.. and many Iowans try to lead honest, decent lives
they will see right through Corruptoidess Hilliarty
Monmouth is actually one of the best pollsters in the whole country
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
it has a slight D lean but does not make huge errors
This is great news ! Iowa is alway underrated as a state where manufacturing (hence trade) is a big issue.
Go Trump !
Iowa is big on free trade agreements. Agricultural products and and agricultural-related manufacturing are big export items that benefit from foreign market access.
Internals say 43% of Iowans think Hillary Clinton is a criminal.
I was figuring that the race would be close in polls and that Trump would win by a few points or, hell, maybe a slightly surprising 5 or 6 points. However, Hillary appears to have even less support than I’d been guessing all along. If there is a Trump BLOWOUT in november, something that really shocks Dems look for Them to go crazy and allege Repub cheating and then attempt to do something about it. They are the biggest cheats in the world and for this reason they’d have no problem projecting their own dirt on to the Rebubs. That live TV poll that went 50 something for Trump really startled me and got me thinking...
I give Cruz one more week. That's it. No more.
yes that’s right. Ag exports are pro trade, but Iowa is losing manuf jobs overall
http://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/iowa-has-lost-13000-manufacturing-jobs-20150302
http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/iowa-manufacturing-employment-contracts-for-the-first-time-in-four-years-2118993.htm
But but but Trump is racist and he supports the scary bang bang sticks!!!!
Lol. MOMENTUM! Bush Jr lost Iowa in 2000 and Bush Sr lost Iowa in 1988. Good sign if we’re up, or at least close.
Way to try to bring unity and bring Cruzers on board.
Guess you want Hillary for President.
Who did that?
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